Will The Brewers’ Winter Ever Heat Up?

[Jason Wang]

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

In just over five weeks, pitchers and catchers will report, signaling the start of spring training. By then, organizations will begin to finalize their Opening Day rosters, and fans should have a pretty good idea as to how competitive their favorite team will be in the upcoming year. 

For many teams, the biggest moves have already been made. A flurry of activity happened at or around the Winter Meetings, and organizations have already committed to over $1 billion in free-agent contracts. The Blue Jays have been the most aggressive in locking down talent, notably signing Dylan Cease ($210 million, 7 years), Kazuma Okamoto ($60 million, 4 years), and Cody Ponce ($30 million, 3 years). Most other teams have made at least one big free agent acquisition or trade, but the Brewers have remained comparatively quiet.

The only free agent Milwaukee has signed is Akil Baddoo, and the only trade they’ve made thus far sent Isaac Collins and Nick Mears to the Royals in exchange for Angel Zerpa. Neither move is expected to move the needle, which begs the question: What are they waiting for?

It’s important to remember that this is how Milwaukee has operated in the offseason for quite some time now. The Brewers have never been huge fans of pursuing big-name free agents, who are often the first to get pulled off the board. They’re quite expensive, and the sheer amount of bidders for any given player often drives prices past the financial comfort zone of the front office. Many of the largest contracts in franchise history were extensions for players like Christian Yelich and Ryan Braun, making Lorenzo Cain’s $80 million contract signed in 2018 the largest free-agent deal Milwaukee has ever inked.

Instead of simply throwing money at their problems, the Brewers love to find undervalued assets and bid low on them, relying on their outstanding internal player development and taking low-risk bets on players that others have already glossed over. In order to do this, deals are often struck late when the negotiating leverage shifts away from the player and towards any club willing to give them a chance. 

A few recent notable examples of late free agent signings include:

• Jose Quintana: Signed on March 5, 2025
• Brandon Woodruff: Signed on February 21, 2024
• Rhys Hoskins: Signed on January 26, 2024
• Wade Miley: Signed on January 9, 2023

None of these four players was highly sought-after, and each came with an asterisk. For Woodruff and Hoskins, it was injury-related. It was understood that Woodruff would miss the entire 2024 season and part of the 2025 season, while Hoskins had just missed the entire 2023 season after tearing his ACL in spring training. For Miley and Quintana, it was age. Both starting pitchers were 36 years old when they signed their deals and seemed to be in the twilight of their big-league careers. These players were effective but only if you looked past the unappealing circumstances on the surface and were willing to take a chance (Hoskins may be the only exception, but hey, you can’t be right 100% of the time, that’s not fair for the other teams).

Another factor that’s likely contributing to the Brewers’ sluggish pace of roster revamping is that their needs don't align well with what they’re willing to pay. There aren’t any major holes in the current roster and, barring a trade of someone like Freddy Peralta, all of the biggest contributors to the team’s success in 2025 will be along for the ride in 2026. 

However, if there were one aspect that could use some love, it’d be finding power in the lineup. In 2025, they ranked deceptively high in slugging percentage because their .258 batting average placed third in MLB, but they ranked 22nd in home runs (166) and 25th in ISO (.145). If Andrew Vaughn somehow manages to maintain his 141 OPS+ over the course of a full season, it may not be a problem, but precedent would suggest that outcome is unlikely.

But these days, power doesn’t come cheap. Kyle Schwarber, an archetypal three-true-outcome player, returned to the Phillies for $150 million over five years. Pete Alonso signed a similar contract with the Orioles for $155 million over five years. There aren’t many slugging free agents left, and those that are available, like Kyle Tucker, are absolutely out of the Brewers’ price range.

It’s a similar story with starting pitching. Milwaukee has a considerable number of young arms in the rotation. Still, if they want to pursue a veteran arm to back up Peralta, it would cost a considerable amount, either in cash or prospects. This seems like a big reason why they’ll look to retain Peralta this year, especially since he’ll be paid just $8 million to be the team’s ace.

And so, their patience is understandable given their strategy. They’ll continue to wait until the marquee names are snatched up at a premium or full price, paving the way for the not great but still good players to be slowly and surely marked down with each passing week. Even if they don’t do anything, their roster remains solid, and their young core will only continue to improve.

The one caveat to all this is that the other teams in the division aren’t quite so passive. The Cardinals have already made a handful of trades (albeit to enter an apparent rebuild), and the Cubs have made quite a few small moves to reinforce their bullpen. The most surprising organization has been the Pirates, who, aside from being interested in players like Schwarber, Josh Naylor, and Okamoto, picked up Ryan O'Hearn and Gregory Soto in free agency before also acquiring Brandon Lowe in a three-team trade. 

None of these moves is necessarily enough for the Brewers to fear for their position atop the NL Central yet, but at the same time, they can’t be totally ignored. Still, the front office tends to march to the beat of its own drum, regardless of what its closest rivals are up to. Realistically, the organization is likely biding its time and waiting to get what it needs at the right price. It may not happen soon, but something will happen eventually. Probably.

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[Sixtolezcano]

Why would this off-season be any different than any other for the brewers? Anyone who expected different was foolish. We can expect our minor league teams to provide those players in 2-3 years (Made, Peña, Pratt, Fischer, Letson, Payne, Dinges, Ebel, Lara, Adamczewski, Meccage, etc.).

 

[Michael Trzinski]

Good piece, Jason! 

The Brewers are a small-market team and as such, have a tendency to keep their wallet in the back pocket. And the fact that they have been doing quite well in the standings lately means they will continue to do so. 

A difference might come if the Brewers slip to the 80-win level (or below) for a couple years. That could mean that their internal player development and/or the pitching and catching labs are producing failing results. At that point, do they step into the free agent market in a serious way? 

Maybe. Probably. Who knows?

[Turning2]

Bargain bin baseball for better or worse. That’s the reality of the situation they’re forced into. 

Small markets are little more than a feeder system. 

[wibadgers23]

I think we all knew free agency would pretty much be non-existent again for the Brewers but would it kill Arnold to make another trade or two?!? Lets make this offseason a little more interesting!  Still time left though.

[Lathund]

Cubs are "active" because basically their entire bullpen and bench hit free agency. So all their signings so far is essentially getting them back to where they were. More generally though, "doing something" because another team is being active is perhaps the worst offseason strategy you can have. 

 

[MattK]

1 hour ago, Turning2 said:

Bargain bin baseball for better or worse. That’s the reality of the situation they’re forced into. 

Small markets are little more than a feeder system. 

I'll be curious if that is able to continue for the Crew. With Made (and others?) potentially joining Chourio near the top of prospect lists, and Turang, Frelick, Miz(?) (others?) as quality MLBers, will the Crew wind up having a few contacts in that $100MM range in the near term?

The high quality prospects are a great cheap resource, but also eventually you have to deal with the fan base having the connection with those players as well. And potential kickback if dealing them after some years. 

[gregmag]

Very good, thorough assessment, Jason.  I think Lathund is spot on about the Cubs; that’s the one change I’d make to the article. 
 

I was just looking back at the Brew Crew Ball threads from when the Brewers traded Hunter Renfroe for a package including Elvis Peguero and then signed Blake Perkins. The people who were most annoyed that the Brewers wouldn’t pay their “best hitter” $11 million got even more annoyed when the FO gave a roster spot to an apparent career minor leaguer. That story has a lot of morals to it, but the relevant one for this discussion is that trying to predict exactly how and where the Brewers are going to find more wins in the late winter is nearly impossible. One way or another, they keep doing it.

[Sugarrayray]

I guess I’m at the point where I’d like to see them put some good trade packages together. When they acquired William Contreras and Willy Adames before that, each trade changed the complexion of the team. 
 

Even if they had paid an actual reasonable prospect price for Contreras, it still would have been a really good trade. At this point it feels like they are hoarding prospects a bit, and I would like to see them turn some of those prospects into some young franchise players. 
 

There’s obvious reasons against doing this, but their farm system has never been in a stronger place to do so. 

[GasserFace]

Sugar,

There has already been a trade from their controllable OF depth. 
 

Just because they haven’t moved a package of prospects doesn’t mean they haven’t discussed trading them.  We just don’t know about them.  At this point, the FO deserves all of the benefit of the doubt related to making or not making all deals. They obviously have not received a needle mover yet. 
 

The idea of making trades just to keep the fans engaged in the offseason makes me sick to my stomach. This FO has proven to be aggressive when they know there is a roster hole. Adames Priester etc

[Turning2]

3 hours ago, Sugarrayray said:

.... but their farm system has never been in a stronger place to do so. 

Or so we're told. We're about to find out in the next 2-5 years if the current crop hype is legit or not. For small market budgets, it's always a carrot on the stick, a hope and a prayer. Maybe a new CBA installs a reasonable cap and floor to make MLB competition more legitimate. 

[Turning2]

15 minutes ago, GasserFace said:

Sugar,

There has already been a trade from their controllable OF depth. 
 

Just because they haven’t moved a package of prospects doesn’t mean they haven’t discussed trading them.  We just don’t know about them.  At this point, the FO deserves all of the benefit of the doubt related to making or not making all deals. They obviously have not received a needle mover yet. 
 

The idea of making trades just to keep the fans engaged in the offseason makes me sick to my stomach. This FO has proven to be aggressive when they know there is a roster hole. Adames Priester etc

Sure, doing something, anything just to do it or to appease the fans is ill advised. At the same time, the fans pay for part of the bills. That can't be ignored either. From separate deals, they swapped Collins out for Baddoo. Pretty much a wash at best by the looks of it, if not an outright downgrade. The OF depth they should have moved was Perkins in my opinion. But that's irrelevant. Move Collins or move Perkins, neither move matters if a real bat for the OF isn't additionally acquired. OF combinations of Chourio, Frelick Perkins, Mitchell, Lockridge, Baddoo, Yelich, Berroa, Bauers are less than inspiring. 

[BarremlensTSSC]

It will not.

I mean, they haven't really added payroll in a few years now and Attanasio knows there's a lock out coming and a disruption in revenue streams.  Never really had any hope they'd make any additions to payroll, which really only left the possibility of trades, likely with major league assets leaving the organization. 

[Frisbee Slider]

Signing expensive or moderately priced free agents has rarely worked out well for Milwaukee the past 25 years. 
 

We have so many shortstops coming up in the system. I suppose if we could get a stud outfielder via trade, that would be nice.
 

[Snoebird]

2 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Signing expensive or moderately priced free agents has rarely worked out well for Milwaukee the past 25 years. 
 

We have so many shortstops coming up in the system. I suppose if we could get a stud outfielder via trade, that would be nice.
 

To me, the one guy who would have moved the needle was Byron Buxton. With him now staying put in Minnesota, I'm perfectly fine going to Maryvale with Mitchell in center and with Tyler Black hanging on to a potential roster spot as a corner outfielder. Re-sign Eric Haase if no other backup catcher is available, and keep your powder dry for a potential May or July trade out of need. 

[GasserFace]

19 hours ago, Turning2 said:

Sure, doing something, anything just to do it or to appease the fans is ill advised. At the same time, the fans pay for part of the bills. That can't be ignored either. From separate deals, they swapped Collins out for Baddoo. Pretty much a wash at best by the looks of it, if not an outright downgrade. The OF depth they should have moved was Perkins in my opinion. But that's irrelevant. Move Collins or move Perkins, neither move matters if a real bat for the OF isn't additionally acquired. OF combinations of Chourio, Frelick Perkins, Mitchell, Lockridge, Baddoo, Yelich, Berroa, Bauers are less than inspiring. 

That's a bit unfair.  You didn't even mention adding Zerpa in the OF swap out.  Who would you suggest adding to the OF that would move the needle over the group mentioned above, while also keeping into account the goal of competing all the way through 2030?

[dsid74]

They will probably go into this year with a payroll as big as it has ever been. 

Resigning Woody counts as a FA acquisition in my mind.  

I think it's 50% or higher that Peralta and/or Megill are traded.  There is plenty of time remaining. 

I think at a minimum, they add 2+ RP, 1 SP, 1 RHH corner OF, 1 C

 

[wntrtxn21]

Pretty disappointed withthe lack of movement so far. Failure to get a desperately needed bat is the biggest let down up to now. IF they don't trade Freddy I think the starting pitching is fine. Peralta-Woody-Miz-Priester-Patrick-Henderson-Gasser-Myers is a decent staff. The pen looks very good, especially if Megill stays. Patrick/Henderson-Myers-Anderson-Hall-Zerpa-Ashby-Koenig-Uribe-Megill-Yoho is plenty good enough for now. They need a good hitting OF or SS plus a backup catcher if Quero isn't on the roster. 

[Turning2]

4 hours ago, GasserFace said:

That's a bit unfair.  You didn't even mention adding Zerpa in the OF swap out.  Who would you suggest adding to the OF that would move the needle over the group mentioned above, while also keeping into account the goal of competing all the way through 2030?

If possible, I would have moved Perkins rather than Collins in that deal.  Zerpa as a replacement for Mears might work out. Might not. Time will tell. MIL has a track record of finding guys like Zerpa and squeezing short term production out of them, so I'll defer to them on that move. Maybe Zerpa is more a replacement for a possible move of Ashby rather than Mears? Who knows...

The only acquisition I've seen suggested that seems to align, and meet needs for both parties, is Jarren Duran. I was lukewarm on him initially. But I'm beginning to see a player like that might be among the most legitimate upgrade options a small market team can reasonably expect to acquire.

 

[Frisbee Slider]

3 hours ago, wntrtxn21 said:

Failure to get a desperately needed bat is the biggest let down up to now.

Garrett Mitchell had 124 OPS+ over 224 PA in 2024. If he gets injured again, Milwaukee could conceivably trade for a replacement midseason.

Joey Ortiz could regain his 102 OPS+ from  2024. We have a ton of SS in the pipeline.

Not sure who the Brewers would obviously replace from their 97 win roster that wouldn’t block a top prospect in another year or two.

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

If adding Daniel Vogelbach to your organization isn't weighty enough to move a needle, nothing is.

[Michael Trzinski]

9 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

If adding Daniel Vogelbach to your organization isn't weighty enough to move a needle, nothing is.

Maybe Rowdy Tellez?