If Brewers Make a Closer Change, Who Could Replace Trevor Megill?

[Jack Stern]

Image courtesy of © Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

 

Trevor Megill’s struggles continued on Tuesday night. Tasked with protecting a one-run lead against the Toronto Blue Jays, Megill allowed the first three hitters to reach, ultimately allowing three runs in his inning of work as the Brewers eventually fell in extra innings for their sixth straight loss. In six appearances, he now has two losses and a blown save, while allowing eight runs in five innings.

“I’m definitely way better than that,” Megill said. “Pitches can be a lot better. Pitch execution could be a lot better. A lot of things can be better.”

Megill’s fastball is the primary culprit. So far this year, it’s averaging 97.4 mph. That’s about where it sat last April before averaging nearly triple digits over the summer, but he’s noticeably failed to reach that high-end velocity since suffering a flexor strain late in the year.

“Everybody can hit velo up here,” Megill said. “Throwing 97, 98 is kind of the same velos [for him] from last season at this time. Just not executing and not getting it done right now.”

That velocity matters, though. Because he throws a straight four-seamer that does not enter the zone from a deceptive angle, Megill needs that outlier heat to get whiffs or swings underneath the ball. At 97, it’s very hittable. Opponents tagged it for a .459 xwOBA at that speed last April, and they’ve managed a .418 xwOBA and 66.7% hard-hit rate against it so far this year.

The only difference was that more of that loud contact was hit at defenders last year, so Megill was able to skate by for a month with an actual wOBA of .371 against his fastball. This year, the results are matching the loud contact.

“The fastball didn’t have the same properties to it, for sure,” Pat Murphy said.

Murphy affirmed his belief in Megill’s ability after the game, even expressing frustration with fans who booed him during his blown save. However, he also acknowledged that the Brewers must decide whether to keep him in the ninth inning.

“We’ll see,” he said. “I don’t know for sure. I like to talk to other people about it. Obviously, you can’t have a guy go out there six times and three times not do the job. I mean, the way he’s throwing the ball now, he doesn’t deserve it, but he can earn it back.”

Other pitchers at the back end of the bullpen have also struggled, though, and Murphy noted that the Brewers would have to feel better about a different option to make a closer change.

“What are we going to do?” he said. “Who’s throwing the ball good back there that deserves it more? So we’ll figure that out. We won’t make those decisions after a heart-wrenching loss like this.”

At this moment, it’s a short list. Should the Brewers make a change, matchups on a given night could determine roles. Right now, these are the leading candidates for saves.

Abner Uribe
As Megill’s setup man, Uribe would be the most obvious choice to slide into the ninth inning. He’s done it before. Uribe closed last September when Megill was injured and remained in that role into the postseason after he returned.

However, Uribe has dealt with his own loss of velocity and movement after shouldering a heavy workload last year. As a result, his whiff and ground ball rates have plummeted in a small sample. He did look more like himself on Sunday, averaging 98.7 mph with his sinker and inducing three whiffs.

“He pounded the zone today, and he had his velocity there,” Murphy said.

Ángel Zerpa
Murphy has shown plenty of trust in Zerpa early, pitching him eight times so far this season, particularly against pockets of left-handed hitters. He also recorded a save in Boston when Megill and Uribe were unavailable.

However, as a left-hander, most of Zerpa’s ninth-inning opportunities would likely come based on matchups. A groundball pitcher, his low strikeout rate would make him an unusual fit as a full-time closer, but he could unlock more swing-and-miss by sequencing his slider and four-seamer differently off his power sinker.

Grant Anderson
Anderson would be a dark-horse choice to close. Unlike Megill, Uribe, and Zerpa, his velocity is below average for a late-inning reliever. He’s also been more prone to walks than one might prefer for a true high-leverage pitcher.

However, Anderson’s arsenal makes him a well-rounded reliever, which could serve him well as a closer. His sinker gets ground balls against right-handed hitters, his sweeper induces weak contact, and his upshoot four-seamer produces an elite whiff rate at the top of the zone. Those three pitches have made him rather platoon-neutral since joining the Brewers, and depending on the situation, he can choose between pitching for strikeouts or ground balls, instead of being locked into one or the other.

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It might be an understatement to say that the best-case scenario for the Brewers involves Megill regaining his form. That possibility feels cruelly remote right now, but it also feels non-negotiable. With Jared Koenig gone from the bullpen picture and the offense diminished, it's simple, even though it's not easy: the Brewers need their erstwhile flamethrower to rediscover his best heat.

 

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[Trax]

Let's face it, as of right now they don't have a better option.  Megill either finds his groove or one of either Zerpa or Uribe suddenly does.   Right now go with the flow with no better choice available...

[nathanj42]

Despite the high-ish ERA, Uribe should be the guy until Megill gets back to his 2023-25 form. Uribe's babip is .400 which likely regress. While his stuff+ is down, his pitching+ is 109, which is close to his career 111. 

[jay87shot]

14 minutes ago, nathanj42 said:

Despite the high-ish ERA, Uribe should be the guy until Megill gets back to his 2023-25 form. Uribe's babip is .400 which likely regress. While his stuff+ is down, his pitching+ is 109, which is close to his career 111. 

I agree Uribe should be the guy, he hasn't been great but has been the best of the group. I would maybe save Ashby occasionally against lefty heavy lineups but I do like the way he has been used to this point. Maybe Yoho can get healthy and be an option in a few weeks.

[Frisbee Slider]

Uribe, for sure.