Brewers (Henderson) vs Nationals (Poulin): 5/3/26, 12:35pm

[sveumrules]

25 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

Really? Reds?

Entering today the Reds have scored 4.27 runs per game (20th) with a 90 wRC+ (25th) and +0.44 WPA (13th)

The Brewers were at 5.31 runs per game (3rd) with a 99 wRC+ (14th) and +1.74 WPA (5th).

The Reds record is primarily because of their bullpen at this point with an MLB best +3.12 Win Probability Added though their run prevention (94 ERA- | 14th) and peripherals (109 FIP- | 24th) suggest they are ripe for regression as the season rolls along.

All of run differential (+45 to -22), BaseRuns (+24 to -29), PECOTA (58.0% to 25.2% playoff odds), and FanGraphs (42.3% to 26.9% playoff odds) favor the Brewers at this point.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Bulldogboy said:

Take away 3 games and they are barely mid pack.

Lol you can't just pick and choose games to fit a narrative. 

Even if you could, you'd then have to take away every other team's best three games before you make any comparison. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Bulldogboy said:

Really? Reds? Those teams are more complete 1-9. Unless Ortiz and Rengifo are being replaced we can't say that. Chourio takes care of left but I am not ready to say Vaughn is the answer until we see him. Hopefully he is the same guy but wrist injuries are tough.

The Reds? You mean the one team in the division that has actually struggled to score runs and which has like three good hitters and a host of really bad hitters. 

[adambr2]

This game for me was lost today when Frelick came up with 1 out and two runners in scoring position and promptly popped up. 

We need better out of Sal. That’s one of the main things holding the offense back.

[Bulldogboy]

55 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

The Reds? You mean the one team in the division that has actually struggled to score runs and which has like three good hitters and a host of really bad hitters. 

We shall see. You and most Brewers fans are depending heavily on Vaughn being the Brewers version and not the white Sox version. If Mitchell and Frelick don't pick it up it won't matter.

[wiguy94]

27 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

We shall see. You and most Brewers fans are depending heavily on Vaughn being the Brewers version and not the white Sox version. If Mitchell and Frelick don't pick it up it won't matter.

Mitchell has a 115 wRC+. He's been 15% better than a league average hitter.