Jackson Chourio and Andrew Vaughn Haven't Provided the Thump Brewers Expected

[Jake McKibbin]

Image courtesy of © Erik Williams-Imagn Images

Throughout April, the Milwaukee Brewers' lineup struggled to scratch, claw, steal and bunt any run they could get across home plate. They survived a war of attrition in the first month of the season, covering for the absence of two players who were meant to be spark plugs in 2026: their young phenom Jackson Chourio and the resurgent former top draft pick, Andrew Vaughn. 

Combining for 41 games (22 for Chourio, 19 for Vaughn) since their return, though, they've managed to provide just three home runs. The Brewers have done Brewers things and continued to win, but they need to show more power if they're going to go all the way in 2026. So why haven't Vaughn and Chourio fired as expected?

Andrew Vaughn Misses His (Ha)Mate
The first one to tackle is, perhaps, the easier of the two. Vaughn was sidelined by a broken hamate bone in the first game of the 2026 season. That's an injury notorious for sapping bat speed. Bat speed is volatile and takes a while to even out, as the pitch location (and therefore swing length) have a big effect on the raw data. That being said, after a month, we have enough of a sample size to say Vaughn is swinging roughly 3 MPH slower than in 2025.

The good news: Vaughn is a hitter, not just a slugger, and he's found ways to keep the quality of contact high. He's not chasing; he's not whiffing; he's hitting a lot of solid contact in the air. It just isn't leaving the park.

Here are his 2025 exit velocity numbers by strike zone area:

In 2025, Vaughn was crushing basically every pitch, but his real damage came on the inner and middle thirds of the plate. If it was belt-high in those zones, he crushed it in the air. Vaughn averaged 70.7 mph of bat speed in 2025, good for the 27th percentile in baseball, meaning he's not likely to clear the fences to straightaway center and does rely on that pull-side power. That's why getting the bat around on stuff inside is so important to him. With slower bat speed, this year (down to 67 mph on average), he's struggling to get the bat sufficiently out in front on the inner third to turn on the ball, and that's been hurting him, with exit velocities dropping on the inner third:

The other big thing is that Vaughn had just enough in the exit velocity department to be a slugging threat last season. The majority of his batted balls in play were in the 100-105 range, compared with other 5-MPH increments, as you can see below:

In fact, he was one of the most consistent producers of high-quality contact in baseball last season. That's continued to some extent in 2026, but the entire histogram has shifted one step to the left, now hitting the majority of his batted balls in the 95-100 mph range:

This isn't terminal, and perhaps in two months' time, we'll see the bat speed return, as is traditional for hamate injuries. For now, we'll have to enjoy the quality of contact and strong at-bats, and perhaps hope for more of the power to come back in the second half of the season.

Jackson Chourio Has Found The In-Between
I couldn't resist a little Stranger Things metaphor. Chourio came into this year with one goal: to reach the heights his talent permits via better swing decisions. It showed in spring training, in his rehab stints, and even the World Baseball Classic. Chourio was being more selective, and there were hopes he could make strides in his chase rate. Let's take a look at his base for 2025 compared to the 2026 performance:

He was aggressive with pitches inside the strike zone, and his bat-to-ball was good enough that, even while chasing to this extent, he was putting a lot of balls in play. Those balls were ineffective, weak contact, however, and that was hurting his results. It's the one clear area where he could make a step forward.

Fast-forward to 2026, and Chourio is being more patient and less swing-happy... just on all the wrong pitches. His swing rate is down, but it's because he's swinging at fewer pitches inside the strike zone. If we look at the specific areas inside the strike zone, it's not pretty, either. It's more like intermittent passivity than being genuinely selective, although he does appear to be focusing on reducing swings on the outer third of the plate (these are how many percentage points up or down Jackson Chourio is swinging by zone in 2026 vs 2025)

He's swinging less at meatballs, less on the inner third, and it's hurting him. Watching the games, Chourio has some at-bats where he seems to really effectively decipher pitch types and locations, and others where he's just guessing. He has the ability to let the ball travel and drive pitches to right-center field, and then turn on any breaking pitches off the back of that. His timing is just off at present, and his approach looks completely lost.

The good news is, the under-the-hood swing mechanics are actually looking good. Bat speed is up; he's finding more ideal attack angles on baseballs despite not quite finding the barrel of the bat. That being said, these were never real problems for Chourio to begin with.

In 2026, Joey Ortiz has a better differential between his in-zone swing rate and his chase rate than does Chourio. That speaks volumes. As always, if he can find an approach that works for him at the plate, the sky is the limit for Chourio. There's no better team to work with him on that than the Brewers. Still, after two and a half years, one might have hoped to see a little more progress than we have so far, and in fact, 2026 has been a regression, rather than progress.

The Brewers need that to change. Thanks to Jake Bauers, they can live with a smaller role and a bit less pop than they might have hoped for from Vaughn. Not so with Chourio. To blossom into the superpower they can be, they need their young dynamo to become a more productive one.

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[TURBO]

Vaughn needs to play more imo.  Too many days on the bench.

[MattK]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

Vaughn needs to play more imo.  Too many days on the bench.

Agreed. And they sorta seem they are thinking that way as well with Bauers getting some OF starts in Houston. If Vaughn for Frelick is a regular lineup change, that will definitely help lengthen the batting order. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

11 minutes ago, MattK said:

Agreed. And they sorta seem they are thinking that way as well with Bauers getting some OF starts in Houston. If Vaughn for Frelick is a regular lineup change, that will definitely help lengthen the batting order. 

I wonder—this is testable, maybe we'll cover it at some point soon—whether guys coming off the hamate issue are better off shielded from same-handed matchups a while. Picking up the ball earlier lets you make up for a bit of lost bat speed by starting earlier, so you can get the bat head out there even with the diminished swing speed Jake noted. Also probably more comfortable for the player; I would guess getting jammed is extra uncomfortable for a bit as you return from this injury. 

[Terry]

Though it should be noted that he also let the ball travels a little deeper this year, as his swing length sits at its lowest in recent years. Using the driveline formula for swing acceleration, his acceleration is slightly down this year, but nearly identical to 2024. I wonder if there's some intentional tradeoff element in it as well.

[BarremlensTSSC]

Ah.  Vaughn gets a pass for his wrist injury and surgery.  Chourio is a "little disappointing" in his first month back after a fracture in his hand.  More expression of disappointment in a 22 year old all star for not being an MVP candidate already.  My god people.  Anyone saying this:  " after two and a half years, one might have hoped to see a little more progress than we have so far," about Chourio a month in to his 3rd season at age 22 and coming off a fractured hand needs to get a grip.  😒

[Jake McKibbin]

4 minutes ago, BarremlensTSSC said:

Ah.  Vaughn gets a pass for his wrist injury and surgery.  Chourio is a "little disappointing" in his first month back after a fracture in his hand.  More expression of disappointment in a 22 year old all star for not being an MVP candidate already.  My god people.  Anyone saying this:  " after two and a half years, one might have hoped to see a little more progress than we have so far," about Chourio a month in to his 3rd season at age 22 and coming off a fractured hand needs to get a grip.  😒

This was a comment made more in terms of his development with his swing decisions than anything. Age is certainly a factor, but usually we find players have a  learning curve through their first 2-3 years as a professional, and it's more I expected to see more development in some key areas from Chourio.

Chourio's production while managing his current swing decision problems is impressive. It also seems fair to question how he's joined Joey Ortiz in this bracket.

 

[BarremlensTSSC]

1 minute ago, Jake McKibbin said:

This was a comment made more in terms of his development with his swing decisions than anything. Age is certainly a factor, but usually we find players have a  learning curve through their first 2-3 years as a professional, and it's more I expected to see more development in some key areas from Chourio.

Chourio's production while managing his current swing decision problems is impressive. It also seems fair to question how he's joined Joey Ortiz in this bracket.

 

Yeah I read it the first time.  It's still ridiculous.  And by all means keep doubling down on your comparison of Chourio to Joey Ortiz. It's incredibly instructive and persuasive.

[Matthew Trueblood]

36 minutes ago, BarremlensTSSC said:

Ah.  Vaughn gets a pass for his wrist injury and surgery.  Chourio is a "little disappointing" in his first month back after a fracture in his hand.  More expression of disappointment in a 22 year old all star for not being an MVP candidate already.  My god people.  Anyone saying this:  " after two and a half years, one might have hoped to see a little more progress than we have so far," about Chourio a month in to his 3rd season at age 22 and coming off a fractured hand needs to get a grip.  😒

I mean... he's NOT an All-Star. I fully agree he can, should, and probably will be one, very soon! But right now, he's a guy with a .721 OPS, continuing to take very inconsistent at-bats and some *really* ugly swings at times. I think anyone not noticing that much needs to, if not get a grip, at least watch a little more closely.

[BarremlensTSSC]

24 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I mean... he's NOT an All-Star. I fully agree he can, should, and probably will be one, very soon! But right now, he's a guy with a .721 OPS, continuing to take very inconsistent at-bats and some *really* ugly swings at times. I think anyone not noticing that much needs to, if not get a grip, at least watch a little more closely.

You're right.  He's not an all star.  My bad.  I watch most days.  Sorry I don't watch "closely" enough to meet your standards.  Sometimes family and work get in the way at my house too.  I watched last night when he raised his OPS by .34 while going 2 for 4 and taking 2 walks too, since you're using what appears to an outdated OPS.  He was able to bump his OPS that much with a single good night because he missed a month and the sample size in his 2026 season is too small to make sweeping pronouncements like a Joey Ortiz comparison, whose numbers have been pretty consistent for much longer now.

The absolute last thing I'm worried about is Chourio.  If that means I'm not watching closely enough then I'll accept that criticism.  IMO a writer delving into the minutae of a 22 year old's swing decisions over a small sample size so he can drop a comparison to Joey Ortiz, is ridiculous.  I'm sure he did that to generate a reaction.  It worked. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

2 hours ago, BarremlensTSSC said:

You're right.  He's not an all star.  My bad.  I watch most days.  Sorry I don't watch "closely" enough to meet your standards.  Sometimes family and work get in the way at my house too.  I watched last night when he raised his OPS by .34 while going 2 for 4 and taking 2 walks too, since you're using what appears to an outdated OPS.  He was able to bump his OPS that much with a single good night because he missed a month and the sample size in his 2026 season is too small to make sweeping pronouncements like a Joey Ortiz comparison, whose numbers have been pretty consistent for much longer now.

The absolute last thing I'm worried about is Chourio.  If that means I'm not watching closely enough then I'll accept that criticism.  IMO a writer delving into the minutae of a 22 year old's swing decisions over a small sample size so he can drop a comparison to Joey Ortiz, is ridiculous.  I'm sure he did that to generate a reaction.  It worked. 

I think he drew the comparison because swing decisions are what the Brewers excel at developing, and one reason why Ortiz's struggles are so glaring is that he's failed to absorb their instruction. That Chourio is going through the same things is disappointing, because unlike Ortiz, he has superstar upside if he can just shore that up—and unlike Ortiz, he has another $75 million or so coming from the Brewers, guaranteed, and they can't get deals that big wrong.

I don't think anyone begrudges you not watching every game. Baseball is a game meant to be absorbed and digested passively sometimes; one of my favorite things about it is that it goes on every day and can hum in the background of our lives, then be there when we have the free time for it. If you read back a bit, you'll find that you brought the tone to this somewhat rude level, not me (and certainly not Jake!). It feels like bad form to accuse Jake of making that comp just for clicks; he doesn't do that and I would edit the parallel out if I felt it wasn't earned. It's fine to come here and have conversations about the game on all kinds of levels! Just don't assume that we're ragebaiting people. And above all, don't *fall* for ragebait that wasn't laid to begin with! 

[Team Canada]

3 hours ago, BarremlensTSSC said:

You're right.  He's not an all star.  My bad.  I watch most days.  Sorry I don't watch "closely" enough to meet your standards.  Sometimes family and work get in the way at my house too

Back off the tone here, this is not a productive way to have a constructive debate.

[Brian]

Jake Bauers Plate Discipline is Elite MLB Network just said.   Saying he is top 5% chase rate of all players this season. 

[BarremlensTSSC]

1 hour ago, Team Canada said:

Back off the tone here, this is not a productive way to have a constructive debate.

I'm guessing the fifth sentence is the one that was the issue.  Seemed appropriate once it was suggested I should watch a little more closely (was that productive or constructive? I don't think so but I'm not a moderator.)

Edited 53 minutes ago by BarremlensTSSC
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