Bauers Qualifying Offer

[liveforoctober]

9 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

When?

He's come up, gotten sporadic playing time and he's had good at bats and played well... albeit in VERY small sample sizes... so I wouldn't use those are a ringing endorsement, but I don't see how you can say he's had his opportunities and didn't succeed with them. 

Yeah, I think a lot of fans will forever have an anchoring bias when it comes to Black. He was a good prospect that came up and didn't flash in his first small trial and that's what will be remembered. Add that to the fact we have some really nice prospects in the pipeline and that Black hasn't torn up AAA pitching and he is the "waste of a 40 man spot", etc to many. 

I would bet decent money that if most were asked to recite Black's MLB stats from the last few seasons they would be incorrect. Super small sample sizes but his 2024 call up is what they remember. In the last 2 years though he has only gotten 41 PA with us at the MLB level and has reached safely in 17 of those. 11/35 at the plate with 5 XBH. That's a really good 2 week stretch for most hitters.

I wouldn't bet on him being here either when the season starts... but he will get MLB at bats somewhere and a Garrett Cooper 2.0 situation is more than plausible.

[SF70]

7 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

Yeah, I think a lot of fans will forever have an anchoring bias when it comes to Black. He was a good prospect that came up and didn't flash in his first small trial and that's what will be remembered. Add that to the fact we have some really nice prospects in the pipeline and that Black hasn't torn up AAA pitching and he is the "waste of a 40 man spot", etc to many. 

I would bet decent money that if most were asked to recite Black's MLB stats from the last few seasons they would be incorrect. Super small sample sizes but his 2024 call up is what they remember. In the last 2 years though he has only gotten 41 PA with us at the MLB level and has reached safely in 17 of those. 11/35 at the plate with 5 XBH. That's a really good 2 week stretch for most hitters.

I wouldn't bet on him being here either when the season starts... but he will get MLB at bats somewhere and a Garrett Cooper 2.0 situation is more than plausible.

Black’s offensive game isn’t strong enough to make up for his lack of defense for this team, a team that values defense as much or more than any team in baseball.

Just isn’t a MKE Brewers-type of baseball player.

[liveforoctober]

1 minute ago, SF70 said:

Black’s offensive game isn’t strong enough to make up for his lack of defense for this team, a team that values defense as much or more than any team in baseball.

Just isn’t a MKE Brewers-type of baseball player.

I don't disagree. I just think he will be unfairly remembered.

But that happens a lot. Mike Boeve might be an after thought non prospect when we look back in years. He can really hit but injuries might never let him show it at the MLB level and it's unfortunate. Dylan O'Rae might never get a chance here and who knows if he does elsewhere ... but he is a really good ball player, etc. Happens all the time - still unfortunate for the guys who are mislabeled or never get the chance to be labeled.

[CheezWizHed]

13 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

When?

He's come up, gotten sporadic playing time and he's had good at bats and played well... albeit in VERY small sample sizes... so I wouldn't use those are a ringing endorsement, but I don't see how you can say he's had his opportunities and didn't succeed with them. 

I agree that he didn't get much of a chance in 2025-26, but he had some consistent playing time while he was up in 2024 and he looked terrible.  The unfortunate part of being on a championship caliber team with other options at your position... if can't play D, you better be able to hit.  Then he really didn't do himself any favors at AAA the last two years either.  

Maybe he will go somewhere else and rake?  Who knows.  

[BrewerFan]

5 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

I agree that he didn't get much of a chance in 2025-26, but he had some consistent playing time while he was up in 2024 and he looked terrible.  The unfortunate part of being on a championship caliber team with other options at your position... if can't play D, you better be able to hit.  Then he really didn't do himself any favors at AAA the last two years either.  

Maybe he will go somewhere else and rake?  Who knows.  

He got 58 PAs spread across the 2024 season. He was up for less than 10 days 3 times spread across the season. 

How about the 47 PAs he subsequently got where he hit .314/.415/.457 872 OPS.

I don't find that particularly useful, but if we're going to say he got his chance in '24... seems odd we're ignoring '25 and '26.

He's a LHed 1B/corner OFer. He may get his chance in Milwaukee if Bauers turns down the QO. 

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, BrewerFan said:

He got 58 PAs spread across the 2024 season. He was up for less than 10 days 3 times spread across the season. 

How about the 47 PAs he subsequently got where he hit .314/.415/.457 872 OPS.

I don't find that particularly useful, but if we're going to say he got his chance in '24... seems odd we're ignoring '25 and '26.

He's a LHed 1B/corner OFer. He may get his chance in Milwaukee if Bauers turns down the QO. 

I'm pretty certain I didn't... Might want to read my post again? Yes, he hit well in a handful of ABs... that is why I said it was odd he didn't get more of a chance. 

Elsewhere, I also mention that it's pretty obvious from the way they are using/handling him that he isn't in their main plans.  If Bauers declines the QO, I can see Black having a chance for a couple of months... but they certainly prioritize Burke over Black. 

[JoeyWiemerTruther]

Black did great in his 2026 2 week stint, people pointed to “lucky” hits but who cares. Had some deep doubles too. Spring training doesn’t mean much but he was absolutely raking and led MKE in RBIs despite playing 5-10 less games than the other players before heading to play for Team Canada in the WBC. He had an underwhelming season in AAA however. 

His lack of defense limits him for sure and I agree it’s likely he’s not in their plans going forward especially being out of options. Only chance is if Bauers hits FA and even then they might just trade Black away and find a different LHB 1B option. I do find it strange they’ve kept him on the 40 man for years now despite not wanting to give him a long term chance. I guess maybe they just liked having him as an AAA insurance guy in case Yelich or Bauers got hurt, which does happen every year at some point so it makes sense and a Yelich injury was the reason for his 2026 call up.

I saw someone on X suggest Kyle Manzardo from Cleveland as an inexpensive short term trade candidate to replace Bauers

[BrewerFan]

9 hours ago, liveforoctober said:

Yeah, I think a lot of fans will forever have an anchoring bias when it comes to Black. He was a good prospect that came up and didn't flash in his first small trial and that's what will be remembered. Add that to the fact we have some really nice prospects in the pipeline and that Black hasn't torn up AAA pitching and he is the "waste of a 40 man spot", etc to many. 

I would bet decent money that if most were asked to recite Black's MLB stats from the last few seasons they would be incorrect. Super small sample sizes but his 2024 call up is what they remember. In the last 2 years though he has only gotten 41 PA with us at the MLB level and has reached safely in 17 of those. 11/35 at the plate with 5 XBH. That's a really good 2 week stretch for most hitters.

I wouldn't bet on him being here either when the season starts... but he will get MLB at bats somewhere and a Garrett Cooper 2.0 situation is more than plausible.

It's actually pretty funny how closely his career has tracked Bauers himself to this point.

You may be right, I think he's got a very narrow window to another opportunity with the Brewers, as I've said, it'd be if Bauers turns down the QO, you may give him the first shot to be in a platoon role. I don't think they are going to go out and spend much on a LHed 1B option otherwise and I don't know if Fischer can do the job. Burke... he's gotta slim down a bit. He's going to get too big. 

 

I just think he'll prove to be a good offensive player. I think it's pretty obvious he won't hit for Bauers type of power, but I could see a nice career as a utility player. 

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

I'm pretty certain I didn't... Might want to read my post again? Yes, he hit well in a handful of ABs... that is why I said it was odd he didn't get more of a chance. 

Elsewhere, I also mention that it's pretty obvious from the way they are using/handling him that he isn't in their main plans.  If Bauers declines the QO, I can see Black having a chance for a couple of months... but they certainly prioritize Burke over Black. 

I'm following along just fine... though I missed where you said it was odd he didn't get more of a chance.

I was responding to this part;
 

Quote

He has had his opportunities and didn't succeed with them. 

 

11 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

I agree that he didn't get much of a chance in 2025-26, but he had some consistent playing time while he was up in 2024 and he looked terrible. 

He really did not look terrible though. He was up 3 times for about 10 days in 2024 at 23 years old and got inconsistent PAs. At no point has he ever gotten anything resembling a chance, nor has he gotten consistent playing time. Not in '23. But if we're saying he DID in '23, then we'd have to look at '26, this past year, the longest period he's been up.
He hit .333/.357/.481.

That was ~25% of his PAs.

So framing it as 'he got his opportunity and he failed,' which is paraphrasing, but I think an accurate representation of what you said... feels a bit lacking. 

If Bauers is back, he's likely gone. If he's not, I think he deserves the first look at 1B. If he's back, obviously he has a much more narrow avenue to playing time... but I would like to see him given an actual shot. 

[Team Canada]

My issue with Black is he hasn't been good at AAA. It's one thing to argue he just hasn't gotten a chance at the big league level (which is accurate), but shouldn't he at least be decent at AAA? It's hard to picture him somehow hitting MLB pitchers better.