60 Hr's for Braun???

[Giraldo8]

Gammons was on Mike and Mike today and was talking about steroids and the Clemens stuff. He then mentioned that if Prince, Ryan Howard or Ryan Braun hit 60 Hr's are people going to believe they were clean. He went on to say players union and owners need to clear this up ASAP. My question is Braun really a threat to ever hit 60 Hr's in a season? I guessed 45-50 was his max.

 

Thoughts?

[trwi7]

I don't think there's any way he hits 60 HR's in a season although I wouldn't complain if he did. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[BrewCrewForever]

60 is an awful lot. I think Braun hits between 40-45 this season. Same for Prince.

[Oldcity]

Yeah... I don't see any way. Howard or Prince are different stories.

[jazzytrav]

My question is Braun really a threat to ever hit 60 Hr's in a season?

I wouldn't think there is anyone that's necessarily considered a "threat" to hit 60 Hr's. Hitters can be legitimate 40-50 Hr guys, but I don't think you'll ever hear that someone is a "60 HR guy". I tend to think if a guy is considered a threat to hit 40-50, he has the power to possibly hit 60. I would think a guy who normally hits 45 would have a better chance of hitting 60 than a guy that normally hits 5 has of hitting 20...if that makes sense.

[DrWood]

if you think 2007 was a fluke, then you don't think braun can hit 60. If you think it was representative of his true ability, factoring in a full-season and development of power over time, and 60 seems a real possibility sometime in the next few years.

[milwaukeesportsfan]

The question you have to ask yourself is do you really want Braun or Fielder to hit 60? I say no, because last year we led the majors in dingers, and we only won 83 games. I would rather have the players more focused on situational hitting.

[JoeHova]

The question you have to ask yourself is do you really want Braun or Fielder to hit 60? I say no, because last year we led the majors in dingers, and we only won 83 games. I would rather have the players more focused on situational hitting.

 

 

but surely there were other factors involved in the team's lack of success? Home run hitting does not equal losing.

[DrWood]

The question you have to ask yourself is do you really want Braun or Fielder to hit 60? I say no, because last year we led the majors in dingers, and we only won 83 games. I would rather have the players more focused on situational hitting.

there is nothing a batter can do in any situation that is more favorable than hitting a homerun. well, except maybe making a quick out to ensure the game is official when a rain delay is imminent.

 

[BrewCrewForever]

if you think 2007 was a fluke, then you don't think braun can hit 60.

 

I don't think 2007 was a fluke for Braun. I just don't see him or almost anybody else hitting 60.

[bacon06]

I like how two Brewers were mentioned as capable of hitting 60 HR. Imagine if they both did it the in the same year. I'm drooling.

[twobrewers]

I like how two Brewers were mentioned as capable of hitting 60 HR.

They mentioned me!?!

 

For the record, on ESPN.com chats this week - both Jim Callis and Keith Law where asked the same question; "90 HR combined for Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun - Over/Under?"

 

They both took the under.

[TooLiveBrew]

Prince is a guy for whom 60 HR wouldn't shock me. Braun is not.

[BrewCrewForever]

The fact that two of our players are being mentioned of possibly hitting 60 HR's is quite an upgrade from where we were a few years ago. It sure is nice.

[crewcrazy]

It takes a miraculous season to hit 60 HR. I'd be pretty surprised (pleasantly if it was in a Brewers uni) if Prince ever did it...I'd be shocked if Ryan ever did. To me, they're both too much complete hitters to ever hit 60 HR, if that makes sense. Both seem like the kind of guy who'll do what he can with the pitch he's given...if a pitch is there for him to pull, he'll pull it, but he won't go out of his way to hit a HR in every at bat like Sammy Sosa or Mark McGwire did.

 

With that said, I would be less shocked if Ryan Howard ever put up 60, especially considering his home ballpark. He's more of an all-or-nothing type hitter than Prince is, and you could argue that he has a little more pop in his bat than Prince does (I think Prince has him in raw strength, but Howard generates a ton of bat speed and I think he generates more power from his swing).

[homer]

Braun was on a 48 HR pace for a full season last year (as a 23 year old rookie). Assuming he progresses, I don't think it'd be shocking if he hit 60 but it'd be pretty surprising.

[Invader3K]

Prince could probably have a year where he hits 70 or more home runs at some point in his career. Look at what he did last season. I don't think that will be a norm, though.

[JoeHova]

I dunno, only 2 guys ever hit 70 and only 3 others have ever hit 60. 60 is still pretty rare, done by only 5 guys in 130+ years (although only 85+ years in the live-ball era).

 

I hope Prince can hit 60 or even 70 (or 74?) homers in a season, but I would put the likelihood somewhere below 10%, despite his prodigious power at such a young age.

[TooLiveBrew]

Braun was on a 48 HR pace for a full season last year (as a 23 year old rookie). Assuming he progresses, I don't think it'd be shocking if he hit 60 but it'd be pretty surprising.

 

 

With a pretty high BABIP (that is, imo it's unlikely for him to sustain .367) & an unsustainable line v. LHP (.450/.516/.964/1.480). I don't think you can find much accuracy in referring to the pace he was on in 2007, since it's largely due to unsustainable factors imho. 15 HR in 111 AB v. LHP! No one keeps up that clip.

[TerraceReserved]

The question you have to ask yourself is do you really want Braun or Fielder to hit 60? I say no, because last year we led the majors in dingers, and we only won 83 games. I would rather have the players more focused on situational hitting.

 

Really? What you're saying is more HR = not as many wins. We only won 83 games becuase of a poor OBP and a terrible defense. And situational hitting?

RISP: 106 OPS+

Men On Base: 103 OPS+

2 outs, RISP: 105 OPS+

Late and Close: 118 OPS+

 

Our situational hitting and performance in close games was above average.

 

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't know about 60, but if they both stay healthy I think Braun will outhomer Fielder this year if he bats 3rd and Fielder bats 4th.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think hitting ahead of Prince will ensure any sort of power advantage for Ryan. At the most, imo, it'd equalize the relatively large gap Prince has on him.

[sbrylski]

Braun was on a 48 HR pace for a full season last year (as a 23 year old rookie). Assuming he progresses, I don't think it'd be shocking if he hit 60 but it'd be pretty surprising.

 

 

With a pretty high BABIP (that is, imo it's unlikely for him to sustain .367) & an unsustainable line v. LHP (.450/.516/.964/1.480). I don't think you can find much accuracy in referring to the pace he was on in 2007, since it's largely due to unsustainable factors imho. 15 HR in 111 AB v. LHP! No one keeps up that clip.

Braun's BABIP of 1.000 on balls hit over the fence is highly sustainable though, the subset we are looking at.

 

I think Braun could average ~42 per season and Prince could average ~45 for the next 10 years. I give them both ~ a 5% max chance of hitting 60, which gives us about a 7.5% max chance of seeing one of them do it.

[dadofandrew]

Most players peak at 27 or thereabouts...I have little doubt either could hit 60. Will they? I'd probably say Prince is more likely, as he's already hit 50, but with that quick swing of Braun's and his 45 HR pace as a rookie, he's right behind him.

[TooLiveBrew]

Braun's BABIP of 1.000 on balls hit over the fence is highly sustainable though, the subset we are looking at.

 

What about the 15 HR v. LHP in 111 AB, though? That's a skew-worthy rate, isn't it?