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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. Seems like Small's stints in the majors have cost him his confidence. Need to get him in the lab this fall/winter and get that confidence back.
  2. It is not the Redliner, but you're getting close
  3. Here's a hint - it's in the Fox Valley, north and east of where the Fox River meets Lake Winnebago.
  4. If I'm reading their stats correctly, it looks like 17 of the 19 1B ahead of him on that list have negative defensive values as well which seems rather odd. The only 1B on that list with a positive defensive value is LeMahieu who has played more innings at 3B and 2B than 1B this year. I'm not the expert on Fangraphs defensive value, but if 18 of the top 20 qualified 1B have a negative defensive value that to me suggests that defensive value is compared to all players and not just 1B. If that's the case, I don't think that's a good way to measure defensive value as if they compare to just 1B it would paint a much more neutral picture defensively. Tellez's speed/range would be much more negative if he played another position but at 1B it's not that relevant or impactful.
  5. Good thing they play nine innings and not just one.
  6. You're right, it's totally unrealistic to expect pitchers who are ages 27, 29, and 26 to repeat their performance.
  7. What was the highest ranked starting pitcher that the Brewers had in 2018? The highest ranked one I could find was #56. In 2021, the Brewers had the #1, #10, and #21 ranked SPs with at least 100 IP based on fWAR. Why can't those three replicate that in 2023, and doesn't having better starting pitching offset having worse offense?
  8. Huh? 1) Improvement - less use of Alexander, Gonzales, Small, Houser as starters = more wins 2) Improvement - player playing better (1.63 FIP vs. 3.30 FIP) = more wins 3) Improvement - young player getting better = more wins 4) Improvement - .871 OPS replacing .695 OPS = more wins 5) Improvement - player playing better = more wins 6) Improvement - 2.5 WAR replacing 0.8 combined WAR = literally more wins 9) Improvement - literally looking for an improvement You don't seem to acknowledge three truths; 1) The first truth that I listed in my post 2) Players performance can vary from year to year and you don't have to replace a player to get better performance 3) The Brewers can't add a significant amount of payroll so they have to take chances on players getting better
  9. I think there are two truths that need to be acknowledged. 1) The Brewers are never going to match up "on paper" with the Dodgers so long as the current economic system is in place in MLB. The Brewers are going to have to get lucky to make the World Series, much less win one. 2) Per what I quoted above, in 2016 the White Sox had two All-Star starting pitchers - Chris Sale and Jose Quintana. They traded them for packages that included Michael Kopech and Dylan Cease. While Sale and Quintana had two more good seasons each, neither proved to be worth a big contract. The Brewers are going to have to trade Woodruff and Burnes for packages that include some young high-upside pitchers that could potentially replace them. Yes, Woodruff and Burnes can be replaced with similar talent. The question is when. For pitchers, it doesn't have to be in the offseason - they are arguably worth as much if not more at the deadline, so there is no harm in going into 2023 with both and then seeing where things are in July. (Quintana was a July trade.) The risk is if one of them gets hurt or regresses (which we could be seeing with Burnes now). But there isn't a need to trade prior to July, 2023. We saw the lack of CF options at the trade deadline this year. If Mitchell and Frelick (and Ruiz) pan out, they can trade one of them for a haul. Adames has his faults, but among the 30 SS with at least 200 PAs this season he's 8th in WAR - they can get a significant return for him too. What the Brewers need in 2023 is: A healthy Peralta/Woodruff/Ashby Burnes to find his 2021 form and cutter Ashby to take a step forward like Burnes/Peralta did Hiura to replace McCutchen's ABs and continue what Hiura has done in the 2nd half (2nd half OPS .871) Yelich to continue his .400 OBP (2nd half OBP .389) and find his 20-25 HR stroke One of Mitchell/Frelick to be a >2.5 WAR CF Williams to be comfortable as the closer and Rogers back (and his ERA matches his 2022 FIP) Either an upgrade at 3B or (more realistically) a Peterson/Brosseau platoon at 3B with Urias in a super sub bench role Better offensive production at catcher (Caratini 2nd half OPS .443, Narvaez 2nd half OPS .505) It all starts with Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta/Ashby and the back end of the bullpen - those are the horses they have to ride.
  10. Definitely energy. I'd look into electric energy providers and any global alternative energy providers. The EU governments should be providing every incentive they can to consumers to move away from using oil and gas, and if the people of the EU are smart they are investing in any alternative energy home heating and transportation option they can find.
  11. Correct! Gallen and Sandy Alcantara were part of a package sent by the Cardinals to the Marlins for Ozuna. If the Cardinals trading away Gallen and Alcantara for that putz doesn't make you feel good, then nothing will.
  12. His value is providing ~1 WAR at a salary of <$2M, allowing the Brewers to spend their limited budget on filling other holes. He's no All-Star, but the Brewers don't have any internal options that are superior and going outside of the org to "upgrade" will cost a lot more than $2M. By simple virtue of budget constraints, the Brewers need guys like him who are an average MLB starter at low cost. You don't need All-Stars at every position; you just need a handful of All-Stars and the rest of the team to be average to above average and not below average.
  13. It was in the same trade so the trade was not this year. Drew Rasmussen does not fit in this answer.
  14. Trivia - Zac Gallen was one of two pitchers likely to finish in the top 10 in the Cy Young vote this year who were packaged together in a trade. Without looking, who was the other pitcher, what team were they traded from, and who were they traded for?
  15. Yeah, it will be fun for a couple of years - and by "couple" I literally mean two. After two (more) years of the same four teams making the final four the newness will wear off. The only chance this has of being successful is if the projected first round draft picks on Alabama/Georgia/Ohio State/Clemson decide they don't want to risk injury in having to play an extra game and opt out of the playoffs. But I'm sure those schools will pay for injury insurance for those kids so it's unlikely to happen.
  16. Odd thing about Tellez this season, he's been best when facing a pitcher for the first time and in clutch situations. Of his 28 HRs, seven have come in the 8th or 9th innings. Ten have come in the first two innings. When facing a starting pitcher for the first plate appearance, he has a .978 OPS. He also has a .968 OPS in the first inning, 1.225 OPS in the 2nd inning, and most interesting, a .939 OPS in the 9th inning with a sOPS+ of 170. Even more odd about that 9th inning OPS is that it comes off of a .136 BABIP.
  17. Resume discussion
  18. Let's move this over to a game thread so to keep this thread for the full season discussion.
  19. Already scored one more TD than Iowa scored against South Dakota State.
  20. Danny Davis waived from IR with an injury settlement. From what I gather, an injury settlement is usually the expected length of time the player is expected to be out with that injury. So Danny Davis likely got paid a couple of weeks of NFL salary, about $40K/week for NFL rookie minimum. Not bad for a $5000 UDFA signing bonus.
  21. CFP Board of Managers votes, allegedly unanimously, to 12-team playoff starting in 2026. Trying to implement starting in 2024. Personally not a fan, but until it's someone other than Alabama/Georgia/Ohio State/Clemson in the final four I don't think it matters.
  22. That from the human statue who stood at home plate admiring his HRs. Willing to bet that he has the slowest average time to 1B on a home run in MLB history.
  23. It's a mandatory number They can still send guys down/call guys up, so some bottom of the roster shuffling is still possible.
  24. It is not Gumby's basement
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