LouisEly

A big chunk of the value of Lohse and Garza will be based on supply and demand. I put this in another thread, but when I look at 2014 NL starting pitchers (I even dropped the innings filter to 120 IP), Lohse was in the top 30 in ERA (a #2 starter) and Garza was just outside the top 30 (#33 - a high #3). A vast majority of the guys ahead of them are either not going to be available, are hurt, or are pitching in pitcher-friendly ballparks and are likely not better. So back to supply and demand - who is better that a) is going to be available, b) is healthy, and c) doesn't come with a huge contract? Cueto? Hamels is better, but comes with at least $76.5M owed for the next three years. I don't think KC will take that on. If you don't trust Lohse or Garza, then you probably aren't going to trust 37-year-old Aaron Harang either, but I think Harang is the biggest competitor for Lohse or Garza. I think the Royals are a good fit because 1) they have a couple starters on the DL, B) they have no depth - all of their top pitching prospects are in the low levels of the minors, and 3) they've made big trades between the two teams recently so there's some comfort and familiarity. The best thing that could happen is for all the teams MNBrew mentioned to be in need/want mode and for not much else to be available/healthy. No better way to inflate the value of assets than for demand to go up and supply to go down.

The Brewers hit line drives and hard ground balls right but right at fielders, however the Giants hit weak ground balls, check swings, and bloopers off the end of the bat into holes. Seven runs in one inning on one extra base hit. Unbelievable.

The Royals starting pitching hasn't been doing them any favors. 36-year-old Jeremy Guthrie got shelled today and his peripherals have been terrible anyway. Danny Duffy just landed on the DL with shoulder soreness (and was struggling before that), Jason Vargas wasn't good before landing on the DL, and Chris Young doesn't have a track record of staying healthy. All of their top pitching prospects are in the lower levels, so there probably isn't going to be any help internally. Depending on how long Duffy and Vargas will be out, they may need to make a move sooner rather than later. Obviously two things would need to happen: 1) the Brewers would need to pick up a significant portion of Lohse's or(and) Garza's contract, and B) given Lohse's and Garza's rough starts to the season it would likely need to be for a PTBNL with options depending on their performance (if that is allowed). But with the Royals' top pitching prospects in the lower levels, with two in the first two rounds of last year's draft, a PTBNL might be a very good fit for both teams. The Royals also have Hunter Dozier who struggled at AA, but has Moustakas ahead of him anyway. A low-risk expiring contract like Lohse's probably would be more appealing, but with their top pitching prospects a few years away and filling holes with journeymen such as Guthrie and Vargas, having a solid #3 such as Garza under control for a couple more years until reinforcements arrive might be very appealing to them. Dozier and Griffin for Lohse and Garza, if the Brewers pick up enough of the contracts?

This season is also a small sample so far. Last season, amongst all NL pitchers with at least 120 IP, Lohse was among the top 30 in ERA (i.e. a #2 starter) and Garza was just outside at #33 (a high #3). Of those ahead of them on that list, some played in a much more pitcher-friendly ballpark and in reality were not better, a vast majority are not going to be available, and some are injured. Past performance is no guarantee for future performance, but that applies to 2014 just as much as it applies to the first 9 starts of 2015.

Was Counsell paying attention to facts/stats when he expects that Parra is the better option vs. Ramirez against a tough left-hander in a crucial situation in the 8th inning? Actually he was. Parra has been hitting lefties better than righties this year, and the lefty reliever has been more effective against righties this year than lefties. Small samples both, but the stats did suggest to keep Parra in the game.

The Casey McGehee experiment is over in San Francisco. For the time being they are going with Matt Duffy, an 18th round pick out of CSU-Long Beach in 2012. Duffy shot through the minors quickly and has good OBP/plate discipline but not much power. They also have Adam Duvall raking at AAA, but he isn't exactly known for his defense. The question becomes how much leash will they give Duffy, and will they put up with Duvall's defense at the major league level? I'm guessing they want to watch Ramirez's health and stamina, and going with Duffy for now gives them some time to watch Ramirez.

If you look at Arizona's picks the last four years, he seems to be an upside guy and likes pitching in the first round. They took a chance on Toussaint last year at #15. In 2013 they went with upside mid-major college arms in Shipley (Nevada-Reno) at #15 (BA had him at #8) and seem to have found a winner so far at #36 with Blair (Marshall). 2012 they weren't afraid to go HS catcher at #26, and then 2011 was the Bauer, Bradley, Chafin draft. I feel confident with that track record.

That's the point - he's there to lose games so that they get a high draft pick next year! It's all part of the plan...

With the lack of catching prospects in the Brewers system, I took a look at some of the college catchers in the draft and there are a few of them that are really intriguing and perhaps flying under the radar. I don't have access to a ton of scouting reports, so perhaps some who are more educated in that department can lend a hand. 1) Austin Rei, C, Washington (likely at #55, unlikely still available at #90) - I think he's flying under the radar because he missed half of this season to thumb surgery. He's not a huge power hitter, but he's a high OBP guy and supposedly is a very good defensive catcher. Posted a .441 OBP this season and a .408 OBP as a sophomore. Was All-Pac-12 defensive team as a sophomore and had a .981 fielding % as a sophomore and a 1.000 fielding % this season. Did this against good competition in the Pac-12. Bats right. 2) Austin Allen, C, Florida Tech (likely at #90, may be there at #121) - obviously his stats are inflated by lower level competition, but a .421 BA and .473 OBP at any level of college is good. Seems to be decent defensively as he only made two errors (.991 fielding %) this past year. Had a .429 OBP as a sophomore. He's a bigger guy (6'4", 220), and it's always nice when you can find a catcher who hits LH. Lucroy didn't go to a big school. 3) Taylor Ward, C, Fresno State - (likely at #55, unlikely at #90) - another guy who doesn't have a ton of power but good OBP (.297 BA, .403 OBP this season). Ward also put up a good OBP as a sophomore (.395). 4) Paul DeJong, C, Illinois State - (likely at #90, may be there at #121) - another good OBP guy (.427 in 2015, .430 in 2014), has also played all infield positions. He did make a bunch of errors, but I don't know what position(s) they were at. Would be intriguing if he could play C or 3B. Bats RH. Wondering if those who have more access to scouting reports could chime in on these guys. Other than Stephenson, I don't know much about HS catching prospects so if those same folks could chime in on the HS guys that would be appreciated too. As for drafting catchers, I don't know about drafting them in the first round. Seems like if you draft a guy with an advanced bat, teams want to move him through the system quickly and so they move them off of catcher. Two of the three best catchers in the NL (Lucroy and Molina) were 3rd and 4th round picks, so you don't necessarily have to spend a 1st on a catcher. Looking at these college guys, they might be able to get a good one in the 2nd-4th and still go pitching/3B with their first 2-3 picks.

Using this logic, we should never talk about any trade or free agent signing or draft pick or manager move. They did what they did, time to move on. Your point of view on this is ridiculous. You're missing my point. It's ok to talk about it. For a while. But to keep bringing it up and keep patting yourself on the back, years later, is my point, and is just as ridiculous.

Kintzler was secretly brought back to help secure the #1 overall pick. Why the hell not walk him? You have 1B open and a righty coming up next.

Any free agent signing that doesn't involve a) giving up a first round draft pick, b) blocking a top prospect who's ready (key word - "ready"), or c) trying to turn a <70 win team into a 75 win team I'm pretty much 100% for. You can't overspend on draft picks or international free agents (except Cuba) anymore, and it isn't my money. There are two ways to build up a farm system - the draft, and signing free agents and flipping them for prospects. They still have two years to flip Garza for prospects. And I think people forget how good Ramirez was in 2012, and how bad 3B was in 2011 when they were two games from the World Series. The Brewers weren't a 70-win team making those signings; they were an 80-something win team and they tried to go for it. Kudos for them for going for it and not trying to be a .500 team. I think people misunderstand my stance on Lohse. My stance is and has always been, let's wait until he's gone before evaluating the move. If they are not able to trade him for prospects, then I will lean towards the people who objected to his signing. But that hasn't happened yet. Let's see what happens first. 100% on the Sabathia trade. They knew they would get a pick back when he left. Nobody foresaw Brantley, a 6th round pick, developing into what he did. Ultimately it ended up being Sabathia for Brantley, and if Teixeira had gotten one less hit in 2008 it would have been Brantley for Trout. And would Brantley even have been given a shot with Braun here? I have no problem going all in for Marcum and Grienke. I really don't think you can reload/recycle and compete for a World Series with the Brewers payroll. You have to have a few years of top 10 picks. People point to Tampa and their ability to reload/recycle, but if they didn't have Price (#1 overall) and Longoria (#3 overall) they wouldn't have competed or been to the World Series. And if you keep dumping guys, fans won't attach to the team and you end up with the low attendance that the Rays have had. I say go for broke, take chances, and then get the 3-4 years of top 10 picks you need to compete.

Jack Z. had several things that Seid didn't - five top-10 picks. Take Weeks, Fielder, Rogers, Braun, and LaPorta out of the analysis because Seid never had picks that high. The guys with extreme ceilings in some aspect of their game are gone by the time you get to where Seid was typically drafting. The highest he ever had was #12 (Jungmann, Medieros). Seid did very well with 2nd round picks - I'd put Nelson up with Gallardo, Taylor is one of their top prospects, Lopez is coming around, and Williams and Harrison have high upsides. How Coulter isn't a top 100 prospect after what he did at Wisconsin last year at age 20 I can't figure out. Unfortunately the most talented draft Seid had to work with was 2009 when a lot of people were in new positions because the Brewers scouting staff had been raided by other teams. But if Teixeira has one less hit in 2008, Seid ends up with Trout.

I think you're just paranoid. The draft last year should alleviate your concerns about a low-floor guy; even the year before when without a first round pick they went upside with Devin Williams and Tucker Neuhaus in the 2nd round. Even in 2012 they went upside with Roache and Coulter, and Taylor in the 2nd round. But you have to look at the draft in it's entirety; with a sandwich pick at #40 they may draft a guy at #15 a little higher than he should go to have some extra money to go after some high-upside tough signs at #40 and #55. There was some speculation last year that was part of the reason behind Medieros. With three of the top 55 picks they may not want to put all their eggs in one basket at #15. Per my earlier post, I don't think that the Brewers drafted Jungmann and Bradley because they thought they were quick-to-the-majors, high floor guys. I think they drafted them, and I seem to recall Melvin alluding to this but have no proof, because they were looking for ground-ball pitchers because Miller Park is such a home run friendly ballpark. In 2011 Bradley only gave up 1 home run in 400 plate appearances. Jungmann only gave up four in over 500 plate appearances; he only gave up 81 hits and 16 extra base hits in 140 IP (struck out 126, suggesting that there were a lot of ground ball outs).

The Brewers like pitchers who have sink on their fastball to avoid HRs in Miller Park (thus I think why they drafted Jungmann and Bradley), so if he's there I think it's Nikorak. 1st - Nikorak, Stephenson, Allard #40 - Hayes, Herbert, Hillman #55 - Watson, Nevin, Rei #90 - Wiseman, Cabbage, Soroka, Degano, Austin Allen #124 - Byler, Marrero, Long Colby, I'm curious what the scouting reports are on Miami's David Thompson. Is the thought that he isn't good enough defensively to stick at 3B? The surgery he had for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome seem to have worked as he had a huge year.

Blazek... no need to pinch hit for him. Hits 94 on the fastball, and can drop down to 75-76 on the curve with a really good 82 mph slider. Something tells me (read: hopes) that when Segura comes back that Kintzler is the one going down, not Knebel.

If the wind hadn't been blowing in from center last night he would have had a 3-run homer then too.

They're whiners because they won't let it go - they keep bringing it up and patting themselves on the back. Hindsight is always 20/12. They did what they did, time to move on. That one pick is not going to change the state of the franchise. Next, take out of your retrospective analysis anyone drafted ahead of the Brewers slot in 2013. They wouldn't have been available. I don't know who deemed Tim Anderson a top 100 prospect, but his career 34 BB to 200 K doesn't scream "Top 100" prospect to me (and in A+ and AA combined, it's 12:117); his OBP is extremely BA-heavy and his SLG is driven by his triples which aren't going to occur as frequently at higher levels. Unless he's a defensive whiz, his line looks very Scooter Gennett-ish (even worse in the K:BB ratio, and Scooter was the same age at the same levels), who was never a Top 100 prospect. Chris Anderson is one of the people I suggested returning in the deal. Gonzales has taken a big step back this year in AAA, and at the AAA level between this year and last year has given up 13 HRs in 74 IP; I'll take the "small sample" beating on that one, but his prior minor league success could also be classified as "small sample" too. Crawford is on the shelf and hasn't pitched yet this year, and while his ERA was pretty last year he walked 50 and struck out 85 in 123 innings - again, not what I would call a "Top 100" prospect - and the Tigers packaged him for 33-year-old Alfredo Simon, so I don't think the Tigers were convinced that he was a top prospect. Unfortunately I don't see the value of those players that you do. So let's move on.

Cheap real estate, a billionaire golf fan, and not playing the courses for 5 months which helps them regrow. Two of my best friends in the MBA program these past two years were from the Carolinas and they both marveled at how good of condition the public courses are here. I told them two reasons: not playing the courses for five months, and goose droppings fertilize them well in the fall.

Featherston would be the throw-in; the high-upside guys would be the 19-year-old pitchers Gatto and Green.

What is telling is that after the game Freddie Freeman said that he wants pitchers to use it so that they don't get beaned with a 95 mph fastball. It gives better control, and believe it or not, batters want better control. That's why Counsell after the game made the comment about three Brewers getting hit in the head. It gives you a better grip which gives you more control. When the ball slips out of your hand just a touch is when Gomez and Segura get drilled in the head.

The Angels won't go quietly, not with Moreno still owning the team. Artie isn't known for his patience, and they may be getting impatient with Joyce and C.J. Cron before the Astros get too far ahead. Good fits for Parra and Lind. Angels get Parra and Lind. I highly doubt that would get Newcomb back, but could it get Kyle Kubitza, a LH-hitting 3B with high OBP (and high K's), and Joe Gatto, a 19-year-old RHP who was their 2nd round pick last year? If not, perhaps Gatto plus Taylor Featherston, who was purchased from the Cubs after plucking him in the Rule 5 draft, and maybe another lower-level prospect such as Hunter Green. Featherston could be a short-term solution at 3B while they have a few down years, giving them time to find a higher-upside prospect there.

Lohse to the Dodgers for Chris Anderson plus Zach Lee. The Brewers get back double the number of first-round picks they gave up for signing Lohse. Everyone in the forum quits whining about the draft pick given up.

In order to #sellsellsell, someone has to #buybuybuy. In looking at the races, I don't know that many teams will be ready to buy on June 1st. Things are still pretty tight; there is likely not going to be much buying until the end of June at the earliest. If anything will happen in the next 2-3 weeks the best bets are: 1) Lohse to the Dodgers 2) The Angels getting impatient with Cron and sending him back to the minors and trading for Lind; the Angels also might be getting impatient with Joyce and might be a buyer for Parra. In fact, I'm bringing this one over to the trade forum because I think there's a good fit and Taylor Featherston could be a piece to bring back to be the near-term 3B solution. I think the Giants are going to want to watch Ramirez for a few weeks and see how he holds up before pulling the trigger to upgrade on McGehee. Would be surprised if that trade happens before the end of June.

This is on top of Gonzalez pulling that crap last year when he wouldn't let Smith warm up. I think Smith just hates Gonzalez for that, and this was just one more thing on top of that.