Yes, they need to still win every series and they would be in great shape. If they either finish the sweep of the Marlins or win the series vs Padres instead of a split, they could probably afford to even drop 2 of the Cardinals series. 11-6 feels safe to me to at least tie with the Cubs or anyone else. Other teams are at least 2 games back so that would mean they would need to go 13-4. That is tough. The Cubs have a favorable schedule outside the Cards. If they go 4-3 vs the cards the would need to go 7-3 in their 10 vs Padres (1), Pirates (6), and Reds (3). That seems doable. But if they go 3-4, 11-6 becomes harder. Go 12-5 and I think we are in. 12-5 means beating the Marlins today, then either one series sweep or taking 2 from the Cards.