Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

endaround

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,910

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

News

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospects Ranking

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

Milwaukee Brewers Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Pick Tracker

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by endaround

  1. endaround
    My answer is no, but then I know I am by myself with not trading anyone over the next two years and trying to actually win 90+ games each year. Right now marginal wins are valuable, in three or four years when these prospects are ready, the Brewers may be struggling for that 75th win. And this is what these trades are, expected wins today for expected future wins. Right now there are only 7 or 8* teams trying to win in the NL. That is likely to change in the future as the Cubs and the Nationals are not going to sit on the sidelines forever. So strike when you have the most to gain and when wins have the most meaning. In two years, you let everyone walk, get a bunch of draft picks, trade Peralta and Ashby (if he has value), trade some of the younger players coming up now (Wiemer if still on the Brewers would make sense given his age and Chourio coming up. Another option would be Mitchell) and go from there. *Well I think Colorado is also trying but in that special Colorado way which is panful to watch, so there is 9th team technically.
  2. endaround
    My answer is no, but then I know I am by myself with not trading anyone over the next two years and trying to actually win 90+ games each year. Right now marginal wins are valuable, in three or four years when these prospects are ready, the Brewers may be struggling for that 75th win. And this is what these trades are, expected wins today for expected future wins. Right now there are only 7 or 8* teams trying to win in the NL. That is likely to change in the future as the Cubs and the Nationals are not going to sit on the sidelines forever. So strike when you have the most to gain and when wins have the most meaning. In two years, you let everyone walk, get a bunch of draft picks, trade Peralta and Ashby (if he has value), trade some of the younger players coming up now (Wiemer if still on the Brewers would make sense given his age and Chourio coming up. Another option would be Mitchell) and go from there. *Well I think Colorado is also trying but in that special Colorado way which is panful to watch, so there is 9th team technically.
  3. endaround
    If your lottery ticket wins it doesn't mean that the lottery was a good investment. Gosser and Ruiz are 40 grade prospects and should be valued as such. If they turn out that doesn't make the trade any better than if they don't.
  4. endaround
    Burnes and Yelich would basically cancel one another out, so you could get back some FV 35 prospects as face savings.
  5. endaround
    Pederson was basically replacement level the previous two years before his contract. He is now a platoon bat. Renfroe will be worth 2 wins for the second season in a row. Given the Brewers spent $8.5 million on McCutchen hard to see then blanching at $10 million dollars for an actual starting level player.
  6. endaround
    Calling a bunch of 22-23 year old pitchers scuffling in A mid tier prospects is generous. Bell would likely cost less but the Nationals might want the value in one prospect than multiple. Something like Kelly and Erceg.
  7. endaround
    Calling a bunch of 22-23 year old pitchers scuffling in A mid tier prospects is generous. Bell would likely cost less but the Nationals might want the value in one prospect than multiple. Something like Kelly and Erceg.
  8. endaround
    You can easily build an offense from center field if that is where your hole is. This all assumes that Bell from the first half is Bell going forward. That is far from assured. Tellez has a wRC+ of 118, basically average 1B play which is a win for Stearns in comparison to prior years. Bell has an wRC+ of 147. That is a big difference. However, The Brewers aren't getting those PAs, they are getting future plate appearances. All projection systems have Tellez maintaining that 118 wRC+ going forward. The projection systems are all over the place for Bell, ranging from 121 wRC+ which is indistinguishable from Tellez to a 140 wRC+ which would be an improvement. Now this range isn't that surprising given Bell has a BABIP of .331 compared to his career of .291. And Bell's career wRC+ is 118. But the idea that Bell is a sure fire upgrade is not supported, especially when defense is considered. We have seen Bell have amazing first halves before where it looked liked he broke out to an MVP level only for him to crash in the second half. See 2019. Bell is available and obtainable whereas some of the CF options that should be available (Mullins, Reynolds, and Garcia since they are on the wrong side of the age curve for rebuilding ) will likely not be obtainable for the Brewers. I just think Bell and Mancini as well are not the needle movers people think they are.
  9. endaround
    You can easily build an offense from center field if that is where your hole is. This all assumes that Bell from the first half is Bell going forward. That is far from assured. Tellez has a wRC+ of 118, basically average 1B play which is a win for Stearns in comparison to prior years. Bell has an wRC+ of 147. That is a big difference. However, The Brewers aren't getting those PAs, they are getting future plate appearances. All projection systems have Tellez maintaining that 118 wRC+ going forward. The projection systems are all over the place for Bell, ranging from 121 wRC+ which is indistinguishable from Tellez to a 140 wRC+ which would be an improvement. Now this range isn't that surprising given Bell has a BABIP of .331 compared to his career of .291. And Bell's career wRC+ is 118. But the idea that Bell is a sure fire upgrade is not supported, especially when defense is considered. We have seen Bell have amazing first halves before where it looked liked he broke out to an MVP level only for him to crash in the second half. See 2019. Bell is available and obtainable whereas some of the CF options that should be available (Mullins, Reynolds, and Garcia since they are on the wrong side of the age curve for rebuilding ) will likely not be obtainable for the Brewers. I just think Bell and Mancini as well are not the needle movers people think they are.
  10. endaround
    Whoops, someone had written Dean instead of Wyatt
  11. endaround
    Is there really a universe where Lloyd or very similar talent wasn't there at 33?
  12. endaround
    Can we all agree the Jags are just lost?
  13. endaround
    The Packers needed to come out of the draft with a WR1. Hard to see them even getting a WR2 at this point. Watson at least may have the physical tools to become a top WR. You almost need to take him at 22 at this point.
  14. endaround
    Is his Fangraphs page correct that Olsen needed to added to 40 man this year or face the Rule 5 draft? If that is the case, the Brewers easily may not have wanted to tie a 40 man spot on guy not ready but also could see another team stashing a guy who can hit 97 in the bullpen all year. So he may have been available because of that.
  15. endaround
    He was a multi-inning guy last year. Maybe just trying to reduce the number of innings Suter pitches going forward. Suter's workload is climbing quickly.
  16. endaround
    Rule 5 casualty?
  17. endaround
    We know from past moves that Stearns/Milwaukee uses a projection model similar to KATOH. KATOH really dislikes Diaz (0.9 WAR over 6 years) and Harrison(0.6 WAR over 6 years). Diaz likely gets dinged just for the 2B but Harrison was both old for his level (he is only 9 months younger than Phillips) and had contact/pitch recognition issues in high A. Now KATOH does love Brinson with a 5.4 WAR over 6 years and like a ~35% chance of being a regular starter or better.
  18. endaround
    Just wanted to note that if you talk to unemployment you may be able to get unemployment while in the academy.
  19. endaround
    If you are in Madison, check out the wisc.jobs site. Often the state has a bunch of temporary LTE positions or less than full time positions they have trouble filling. Right now I know the Dept of Revenue is gearing up for tax returns by hiring temp workers: http://wisc.jobs/public/job_view.asp?annoid=62641&jobid=62156&index=true Check back in Jan for jobs since hiring tends to slow right now until after the holidays. The other thing about looking for state work is that many jobs require an objective exam, which is good since you can get interviews based on your score instead of dealing with people dismissing your resume.
×
×
  • Create New...