Pitches don't seem on target either. If you have a bad 1st inning you get into pitches 15-30 or higher. Going only by innings, it seems Carpenter, Oswalt, Halladay, Zambrano don't follow Ben's pattern and Peavy and Mussina not as much. I picked Jason Schmidt at random and found for 3 year splits: 1st: .608 1-3: .642 4-6: .676 7-9: .700 I'm not necessarily disputing what you're saying but I think there's a double standard in the evidence required.