danzig6767

Most people associate statistical analysis with mainly just baseball, but it's also becoming more advanced in both basketball and football. While i pay some attention to that analysis in football/basketball, baseball is a near ideal sport for really in depth statistical analysis given the largely individual nature to it's game compared to football and basketball which are much more team sports. In baseball, a hitters stats are clear facts and pretty much not influenced by anything else except his own abilities except RBI's. If a hitter has a very poor OBP like say Yuni, in today's baseball world, it's largely impossible now for anyone to make a believable argument that Betancourt isn't a drain on the offense, regardless of what his batting average and RBI numbers say, unlike 10-15-20 years ago. The numbers about how OBP create runs is simply to grounded in fact to be refuted. There are still gray areas like defensive stats and some having to do with evaluating pitchers actual production vs their peripherals/defense around them/park factors, but a lot of baseball stats are just really hard to argue against them without trying to explain away facts. So even though i'm not overly interested in reading up on a lot of the more newer and advanced stuff out there, even when i don't fully understand a stat, i generally believe it will have more validity to it than a person's gut feeling on a player. A sport like football though is such more more team reliant. A quarterback for example can have his performance impacted by the offensive system he plays in. The quality of the line blocking for him and/or by the quality of his receiving weapons. If a running back has a bad run blocking line in front of him, that clearly will impact his performance. A good pass rusher can get fewer sacks if his fellow rushers stink, thus he'll get double teamed a lot more. There are many different examples, but baseball in many cases lack these barriers to coming up with numbers that are difficult to refute and thus i think it frustrates some fans/writers that were used to analyzing baseball mostly with their eyes and gut feelings as they did with football and basketball. Even more frustrating for them is when stats show that their eyes and gut feelings about certain players to have not been as accurate as they thought. That can sometimes be hard to stomach for some because let's face it, a big part of being a fan of sports for many is thinking they instinctually know the game well. Kinda like how it feels good before a sport's draft if you say this/that guy will be a good pro and this/that guy a bust, then later you were right more than wrong.

I really appreciate and enjoy the advances in statistical analysis, but only to a degree. For example, it helped me understand just how much more important OBP is compared to batting average. I turned 40 this year and in my younger days, i judged hitters a ton by simply batting average because that and home runs/RBI's were pretty much all the stats that were shown. If say Rob Deer would be hitting only .235, i never factored in how much he walked which in turn gave him a solid OBP, while at the same time i would overrate guys who hit for a high average but rarely walked. I also like how OPS came and gave baseball fans a pretty good and simple tool to evaluate the kind of overall season a hitter had. Same with pitchers. In my younger days i never understood the importance of stuff like K/9 or K/BB ratios to how good most pitchers will end up being. A stat like WHIP i was very glad came about. More telling than just ERA, but not overly complicated either. BABIP is another stat i find useful and glad it's around. That said, there are so many metrics and stats out there today that it can make reading this forum tough at time because i'm simply not interested enough in sabermetrics to read up on all the various metrics and stats now available. It's one new abbreviation after another that i really don't care to learn about, i just prefer watching the baseball games for pure entertainment value without trying to statistically analyze every aspect of the game super in depth. For those though that really are into the ever evolving statistical analysis, more power to you, what bores me certainly doesn't have to bore others. The one area i can agree a bit with Whitlock is there are some saber folks out there who can be real pricks when expressing their opinions toward those who either don't follow advanced analysis or who simply don't understand the newer/newest stuff. Then again, calling people "geeks" just for enjoying the evolving statistical angle of baseball and all sports isn't exactly the best way to frame an argument against the socalled bad attitude saber minded people take.

Cain and Buccholz alone would have cost a ton. I think you undervalue what it takes to get pitching. The Cubs gave up really good prospects to get Garza. St. Louis gave up Rasmus for E. Jackson and a couple okay relievers. Bryson and Jeffress did not have a ton of value even if we loved them as prospects and neither are really of much value anymore. Escobar was shown to be one some scouts thought he was - an all-field no hit shortstop. Cain is a solid but not great outfield prospect same with Brantley. LaPorta, Odorizza and Lawrie are the only guys who are top 100 type prospects. Lawrie looks like a potential stud. Odorizzi looked dominant until he got to AA ball but he has time to turn it around and LaPorta has been ok at best. Cain alone would have cost a haul close to Greinke when you wanted to trade for him Buccholz was the #4 prospect in baseball in 2008. No guy on this list was top 20 except maybe Lawrie last year but you would have had to package a player like Lawrie and another to get Clay. Neimann was young and under control for a long time and peaked as #20 on the prospect list. He would have cost a lot too. You under-estimate what it would cost to get major league ready pitching. Especially pitching under control for 4 plus years like all these guys were. Greinke has been an ace since the break. He had a rough start because he didnt have Spring Training but his 2.23 ERA and peripherals are ace like. Maybe not Sabbathia-like but still terrific. I could go one with your post with where I agree and disagree but I dont have the time. I do agree people (inlcuding myself) at times are trying to down play how good Lawrie is. He has the potential to be a star player and he was overpaying (not by as much as you think) for Marcum. However, I will never agree we overpaid for Greinke. Of the 4 prospects only two were guys I miss even a little. Crew07 tries saying Melvin really overpaid for Greinke, i totally disagree. Jeffress is only a relief pitcher that still has huge command problems. My money is on him having little to no impact as a big league player. Escobar now has had back to back years of him being one of if not the worst hitting everyday players in all of baseball. Cain may end up having a solid big league career, but he'll be 26 next year and isn't an upper tier prospect. Next year Morgan/Gomez can platoon again in CF which has worked out great and Logan Shafer will get one more season in AAA to refine his skills. Odorizzi is the only guy in the trade i really wish we could have kept, but while Odorizzi does have plenty of upside, he isn't considered an elite pitching prospect and he's struggled a bit since being promoted to AA. Time will tell on Odorizzi, but not only has Greinke been key this year and under contract next year, he may end up signing an extension. Great trade. Crew also continues to bring up the Sabbathia trade in a bad light, yet if any team has to be disappointed with that trade, it's Cleveland. LaPorta has pretty much been a huge bust so far for the Indians. Brantley is a 4th outfielder and that might be being kind given how he's hit for a corner outfielder. Bryson is a 23 year old relief pitcher still in AA. On the other hand, Sabbathia had an epic stint here in which he not only lead the Brewers to it's first playoff berth in decades, i believe that time helped revive the love for baseball here in Milwaukee again. The Marcum/Lawrie trade is the only one i worry about given how fabulous Lawrie has hit this year, but if Lawrie continues to do very well for Toronto, i'll be able to stomach watching that if we manage to end up playing in the World Series. That said, i thought Lawrie had a good shot to be a quality MLB hitter in time, but what he's done this year at age 21 has surprised me. Wow he's looked great and we certainly could end up regretting this one. Lastly, i laugh at how Crew07 keeps bringing up this stuff about Melvin should have acquired this/that great young pitching prospects. In his post he states, "Cain, Niemann, and Buccholz were all on the block" based only on media reports, but having zero clue if any of them truly were "on the block" and even if they weren't 100% untouchable, what would be required in an actual trade, not pretend guessing. For those three young/cheap highly valuable young starting pitchers to have supposedly been on the block in successive years as he states, Melvin obviously wasn't the only GM who couldn't acquire any of the three pitchers because nobody else acquired them either. They weren't traded, just as high quality/well thought of young starters on the cheap rarely ever get traded by teams. I think it's safe to assume that while Cain, Niemann, and Buccholz may not have been absolutely 100% untouchable, just as few players in the game are 100% untouchable if a team were to throw out a silly great offer, they likely were about 90-95% untouchable, just as say Gallardo was to us. Yet, Crew07 seems to believe that SF, Tampa, and Boston were eager to move their highly valuable young starting pitchers and thus the bumbling Doug Melvin blew the chance to get one or more of those three arms, even though no other GM pulled off a deal either as the three were never traded for obvious reasons. This isn't fantasy baseball where impatient team owners trade away quality young starters all he time or a forum where fans can think up pretend trades based off media rumors and there you go, Matt Cain is now a Brewer. Or just because some baseball reporter or blogger says so and so player is "on the block", that it's actually true given usually they really weren't on the block. Unlike fans dreaming up pretend trades, a real GM has to call another GM and when they start asking for highly regarded young starters, in the vast majority of cases they'll hear thanks for calling, but no thanks, regardless if some baseball reporter said the guy was available.

Hairston hasn't played SS for us except one game recently, how is he thought of defensively as a shortstop because i have no clue from a simple eyeball test? Then again, Betancourt could make nothing but outs at the plate in the playoffs and even make a couple of errors, yet i still don't think Roenicke would start anyone except Yuni in every single playoff game the Brewers manage to play. Same with McGehee. Those two will start every game in the playoffs, regardless of how they finish the season. Hell, i don't think it's even a 100 percent lock that Green will make the playoff roster. If for some crazy reason the team keeps 12 pitchers, i'd bet that they'd keep Wilson over Green even though it would make no sense at all. That said, i do think it's about 85/15 odds that they only carry 11 pitchers since it would be so dumb to carry 12 given Narveson goes to the pen.

I joined and checked the league settings out, but i'll just have to wing it strategy wise during the draft because i've never played fantasy hockey before. In say baseball, i naturally understand come draft time in how to the value players by position when putting together a roster. For example, just a solid hitting SS or catcher is generally more valuable than a good but not elite firstbaseman/outfielder simply via supply at the positions. Looking at the hockey settings and then players stats though, i admit to feeling a bit lost because it's foreign to me even though i know most of the players. Like say goalies, are they generally picked after the first 3-5 rounds and then a run usually is on them? Or is a top tier goalie kinda viewed like a top tier QB in fantasy football, worthy of a 1st/2nd round pick in the Rodgers/Brady area? When to pick offensive minded defenseman vs adding another high scoring wing or center? Plus, why are penalty minutes a stat when in most cases a penalty is a bad thing?

I'd actually rather see Axford facing Pujols or Cabrera in that spot, but obviously all would be scary. Of the guys mentioned, Adrian Gonzalez is the guy i'd rank as pretty much a tie with Votto. I'm sure the fact that Votto has hit .383/.439 with a .500 plus OBP against the Brewers the last two years has left me biased some, but he's just so patient at the plate that when pitchers have to eventually throw him strikes because runners are already on base, my dread level skyrockets. While not a huge sample, he's hit .348/.379 the last two years with runners on base. Then again, if we played in the AL Central and had to face Cabrera all the time, i'd likely feel the same level of dread each time he came up with runners on base in crucial situations as i do with Votto. I see Cabrera highlights all the time and understand that he's a hitting savant, but highlights aren't the same as your team facing a certain player all the time.I just notice that whenever we play the Reds in close games, i find myself thinking ahead of if so and so gets on, we'll have to face Votto with those runners on base, more so than even Albert for whatever reason..

Plus, if St. Louis keeps winning, they could potentially pass the Braves for the Wild Card and then we'd end up facing Arizona in the first round. Home field obviously decided by better record between us and AZ, but either way, i wouldn't be terrified to face the D-Backs in the first round like i would with Philly. Then if the Brewers advanced, we might get lucky if the Cardinals knocked off the Phillies. Speaking of Atlanta, they have health problems in their rotation, but in their favor is their next 8 games are against the Mets, Marlins, and Nationals, not exactly tough teams. That said, if St. Louis can keep playing well and lessen to lead to 1-2 games with Atlanta, the Braves last three games are against Philly. If Philadelphia is in that position with three games left, would they play all out to win or rest guys, including starting pitchers? I have to assume that Charlie Manuel will put rest late in the year above worrying about any potential impact those last three games could have on the Wild Card race if St. Louis stays in it. If we finish lower in the standings than Arizona, i'd prefer to see St. Louis pass Atlanta so the Brewers open the playoffs vs the D-Backs instead of the Phillies. That's of course assuming the Cardinals don't pass the Brewers.

http://www.thevine.com.au/resources/imgdetail/seven-new-movie_111109044301.jpg

Agreed. I'm sure there's pictures from spring training back then and I'm sure some bf.netters were down there and saw Gamel. I'm pretty sure those who were down there and the pictures that were taken for the Journal Sentinel and Yahoo or whatever we would've been able to tell if he came in 30 pounds overweight. You can't put on that amount of weight and have people not notice it. Does anyone know if the Brewers put a weight limit on what they want each player to report at, within say 5-10 pounds? If not, how does the organization go about deeming certain players to be overweight, and by how much?

To me in a big game, Joey Votto is the absolute last guy in all of baseball i want to see stepping into the batters box in that situation with one more out to get. Man that guy just doesn't seem to have a single hole in his swing or approach, i feel dread every time he comes up in an important spot. Is there anyone else someone would fear coming up more than Votto in that situation, AL or NL?

Yea, i see no reason at all that this would become a distraction given the players aren't stupid and already understood the contract situation of Prince. Fielder leaving after the season is no surprise to anyone, be it players or fans. Prince saying it publicly i'm sure was met by a bunch of yawns in the clubhouse.

McGehee had a nice month of August, but he's largely been struggling again these last few weeks, batting .206 in September. Obviously nothing is a lock either way if say Roenicke was playing Green more vs righthanders unless someone is truly clairvoyant. If i had no choice though except to bet a 1000 dollars on whether Green or McGehee would hit better vs righthanders the rest of the way, i would put my money on Green. That said, even the idea of a fairly strict platoon between Green/McGehee would need to factor in that for whatever reason this year, Casey has been absolutely atrocious vs lefties this year to the tune of a .430 OPS in 120 at bats. Maybe that's more a fluke given McGehee has hit lefties well in his prior two years, including a .947 OPS last season. I have no idea why Casey has hit almost like pitcher vs lefties this year, but that has been the case. Given the terrible year McGehee has had, i simply would like to see Roenicke give Green an extended look the rest of the way to see if come playoff time, Green would be deserving of some starts at third instead of just automatically giving those starts to McGehee.

I've never played in a fantasy hockey league, but i love the sport and would join if you still need owners.

Awesome link. This is my brother when he came home on leave from Afghanistan http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=10150164735860989

While i would feel somewhat leery about giving any pitcher five years at big money for potential health reasons, Greinke has been durable over his career and is a great athlete for a pitcher, so it would lessen my fears to a degree. I'd do 5/90 if Greinke would take it because top tier starting pitchers in their prime are arguably the most hard to find commodities in the game besides an elite catcher who can both hit and play quality defense.

I don't get why he cares if he gets to pitch a few innings in the 9th inning instead of the 8th inning given K-Rod gets paid the same either way and he went from a mediocre team to one that will be in the playoffs? Just yet another example of what the closer stat has created. K-Rod sometimes comes in the 8th inning with a 1-2 run lead and has to face say Pujols, Holliday, and Berkman, while Axford faces an easier group of hitters. As a simple competitor, you'd think he'd more enjoy that 8th inning against the heart of an order, but i think he's so conditioned himself as being the 9th inning guy that nothing else comes close in importance to him.

With Beckett injured and constantly hurt Bedard now gimpy after taking off his hat wrong, that Boston rotation is straight garbage except for Lester. Lackey is flat out awful. Wakefield is in his second straight year with an ERA over 5 and it's pretty mind boggling that a team with a payroll close to 200 million dollars could have god awful Andrew Miller also starting. Miller with his 5.58 ERA and 1.83 WHIP, which actually is down from the 2.36 WHIP he posted last year, albiet only in 32 innings last season. Amazing that in a pennant chase that those three scrubs are the best Boston can put out there to start games. That's more fitting a Sal Bando late season rotation, not a Red Sox one that prints cash.

Never ever going to happen Nottso, way to complicated. It's either going to remain separate in the two leagues or DH for both unfortunately.

I can easily see why Gamel is frustrated by being stuck in the minors for so long without a shot to prove himself in the majors beyond a few short stints, but for any organization to come to a conclusion that a minor league manager is to abrasive or has poor skills at working with players from a personality aspect, it's never going to be done based on how a single player and that manager gets along or else organizations would be firing minor league managers left and right. Given none of us have played for Don Money and the vast majority here don't know other players personally who have played for Money to get their views on him, pretty much everyone here is just seem very uninformed about how he is with players as a general rule, not just how he and Gamel are. As for getting on board with the rest of the organization, think it's pretty safe to assume though that if Money consistently had problems with getting along with the players he's given to manage instead of maybe some isolated instances, the organization would have moved on and let Money go.

Why do so many of the DH lovers say this nonsense? It has nothing to do with "tradition" for me or the majority of people who don't like the DH. I simply much prefer watching NL baseball to AL baseball and the by far biggest reason being the NL doesn't have the DH. My belief is confirmed each year when the Brewers go on the road for interleague play. Pretty much everyone i know that's a Brewers fan is glad we play in the NL now and doesn't miss the DH at all. Nothing more to it than that. You and others obviously prefer watching AL style baseball with the DH, more power to you, but for the majority who disagree with you, they aren't 65 year old guys yearning for the old days when baseball was played a certain way. They simply prefer NL baseball, that's it.

For as poorly as Bando drafted over his tenure, it sure seemed like the Selig's were the driving force behind the strategy of trying to "compete" each year mainly with band-aids instead being willing to just bottom out and put those resources into the draft. That money being continually wasted on the likes of Greg Brock, Franklin Stubbs, Shaun Berry, Marquis Grissom, etc should have been pored into the draft instead of taking the most sign-able guys like Chad Green.

I'd much rather see the DH completely eliminated, but as everyone already knows, the union would strongly balk at this, which pretty much means the DH stays. I've resigned myself to the fact that if/when baseball does eventually decide to have the same rules for both leagues, it would be all DH instead of no DH. As much as i hate the DH, i do admit that it would really suck if say the Brewers made it to the World Series this year and faced Boston, with them using Ortiz at DH in their park while we trotted Kotsay out there.

Going into this series, i felt we'd be very lucky to score at least three runs off any of Hamels, Halladay, and Lee. That puts so much pressure on our starters to pretty much not make any mistakes at all. Tonight was a perfect example. As soon as Howard hit that home run tonight in the first inning, it really felt like the game was instantly over. I know that the Brewers would face tough odds vs Philly whether it was a 5 or 7 game series, but the thought of playing them in the first round scares me most because the potential is there of such a quick exit from the playoffs, 3-4 games and then bam, such a wonderful season would come to an ugly and quick ending. Even if the Crew doesn't make it to the World Series, i want to at least win the first round series so that will mean 7-10 playoff games to watch. Going to Philly though and the potential easily being there for Lee and Halladay to simply shut down the Brewers offense would be would be a massive bummer if it happened.

Agreed. Nothing funny about failed drug tests. I realize they want to make it memorable, but this one was just awkward. I thought it was a funny way to tell Green. A joke like that wasn't going to harm the kid at all.

I thought so. Then again, he used to be fast too. He never charges fly balls to make throws home. Been the same story his whole career. Remember the all star game when the AL scored the winning run on a sac fly that Hart spiked into the ground with his typically lame, flat-footed attempt to throw home? Embarrassingly bad. I'm sure coaches have tried to correct him over the years. Either he is lazy or incapable of learning. Not only does Hart get nothing on his throws, he's always really inaccurate. I'd like to see him playing first next year.