Ennder

I've been a bit surprised lately that quite a few people seem to think this team will take a step back this season. Now I personally like what we have done this offseason overall but I can understand not everyone agrees with that. What I find most surprising is that going into last season most people projected us at 82-87 wins, very few people seemed to think we'd be under .500 last year. I predicted 83 wins myself (I RULE!) and this year as it stands I'm predicting 88 wins for the Brewers this year. I just wanted to take a position by position look at the team going into last year vs into this year to compare the expectations of 2007 vs those of 2008. C - Estrada/Miller vs Kendall/Munson - Advantage 2007. I expected a lot more out of Estrada than we got, he can be a pretty productive hitter when healthy but it is pretty obvious at this point from 2005 and 2007 that he just does not do well when he has your normal aches and pains of being a C. My expectations for Kendall are pretty low though I bet he matches what Estrada actually did in 2007. 1B - Fielder vs Fielder - Advantage 2008. I really did expect a big year out of Fielder last year but obviously I'm much more comfortable with him coming off the absolutely huge year he had last year. 2B - Weeks vs Weeks - Advantage 2008. Going into 2007 I was really worried about Weeks. Wrist injuries tend to linger a year and I'm not a big Graffanino fan so didn't want to see him playing any more than he had to. Going into 2008 I'm much happier with Weeks, the wrist seems healthy and he had the huge last couple months that has me expecting better things out of him. SS - Hardy vs Hardy - Advantage 2008. Going into 2007 I still liked Hardy but I was more than a little worried about the injury situation. He had only really shown 2-3 months of decent hitting in the majors. While I don't think he'll match his HR totals from last year I'm much more optimistic about Hardy going into 2008 than I was going into 2007. 3B - Counsell/Graffanino (maybe Braun?) vs Hall - Advantage 2008. I thought 3B had the potential to be a disaster last year, we either had no bat playing there or a rookie who i thought would hit decently and field poorly. Going into 2008 I personally expect a bounceback from Hall. Not to 2006 levels but to 2005 levels which is still about what I would have expected at 3B offensively going into last season. I have higher hopes for his defense at 3B than I had in Braun going into last year. RF - Hart vs Hart - Advantage 2008 I liked Hart going into last year but a mostly full season with very strong production just makes me like him more this year. CF - Hall vs Cameron - Push. I thought Hall would be adequate in CF, he wasn't as good as I expected. I also expected him to hit pretty decently last year. Cameron is a defensive upgrade over what I expected in Hall in 2008 but I'm not sure how productive that spot will be in the 25 games he missed so it becomes a push for me. LF - Menchkins vs Braun - Advantage 2008. I expect Braun to be adequate defensively in LF and he is a big upgrade over Menchkins offensively going into the season. Bullpen - Cordero, Wise, Turnbow, Shouse, Aquino, Dessens, Villanueva vs Gagne, Riske, Torres, Shouse, Turnbow, Mota, Bush/Capuano/Villaneuva/Vargs - Advantage 2008 Don't get me wrong, I'm worried about Gagne as the closer but going into last year it felt like Cordero and then question marks to me. Shouse was coming off his first just ok season, Turnbow was coming off a terrible season. Wise faded again in the second half. Dessens and Aquino are well, fodder. This year I just think the bullpen is a lot deeper. It is also deeper in the minors with McClung, Stetter and even Bray or Pena all ready for the majors. Rotation - Sheets, Capuano, Bush, Suppan, Vargas vs Sheets, Gallardo, Suppan, Cappuano, Villanueva - Advantage 2008. Sheets has gone another year without an arm related injury so I like him more in 2008. Even with the loss streak my opinion on Capuano hasn't really changed much. Suppan is the same guy as going into last year. Gallardo is a big upgrade over anything we had going into last year. Villanueva is an upgrade over Vargas. Im' much happier with this rotation than last years and I think the depth looks even better than it did last year. Other than C I like this team as much or more at every single position than I did the team going into last year. I just think this is a much stronger team and I'm going be shocked if we don't win at least 3 or 4 more games than we did last year barring some massive injury problems.

I'm not sure why you think his defense will fall off. Yeah, maybe it won't be bordering on perfection like it was this past season, but I would assume he'll still be a gold glove candidate for many years. I can't remember seeing someone not named Sax or Knoblauch have their defensive skills decline while still young. Age and injuries slow guys down, but I don't see why Tulo won't be a superior defender for many years to come. One year of defensive statistics just isn't a big enough sample. Quite a few guys come up and have great 1st years defensively and trail off, quite a few stink their first year and improve a ton. In his case the numbers are so extreme that I expect them to regress towards average, just like I'd expect Braun to regress the other way towards average.

I didn't expect a winning record in 2006, 2005 was about as flukey as they come, that was not anywhere near a .500 team.

We won't know for another year which is why the contract is so risky. First off I don't believe the defense will stay as good as it was last year. I also expect the offense to fall off quite a bit. Coors does tend to mess up players road stats too. He won't be as bad as those road splits somewhere else but he would lose a ton of offensive value playing in another park anyway.

Cameron has a very small contract and a longer career of success.

I would think CF is Hart with LaPorta and Braun in RF/LF. No clue on C or closer, Bray maybe for closer though he is getting old now.

I guess if you want to judge bullpen guys by ERA I agree, but none of them had peripheral stats out of line at all with 2005 or 2006. Toolivebrew posted various projections in another thread. http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=10154?page=9 Gagne - 3.00 - 3.86 ERA Mota - 3.73 - 4.85 ERA Riske - 3.80 - 3.82 ERA Shouse - 4.04 - 4.21 ERA Torres - 3.94 - 4.06 ERA Turnbow - 3.82 - 4.08 ERA Those are some larger ranges than many teams have I'm sure but if every pitcher in the bullpen ended up in those ranges I'd think it is an improvement over last season's 4.24 ERA out of the bullpen. Now obviously ERA is a stat that is all over the place over a 70 IP sample so some of those guys will probably be higher than that range and some lower and we have to hope that overall it evens out. With the improved defense and depth int he bullpen it just might.

Last year going into the season I thought the Bullpen would be a disaster. We had Cordero and that was pretty much it for established RP's. Wise is the only other one I guess but he always has worried me since he is so fragile. I'm much happier going into this season though of course Gagne as closer does worry me a little bit. Get Turnbow out of pressure situations and I think he'll be a great RP, Riske and Torres should be fine handling the 7th/8th for us. Shouse has shown that he wasn't just a one year wonder as the LOOGY. I feel better about Mota than I did about the aquino, dessens, spurling types. I also think our minor league depth for mid season replacements is much better than last year.

Well I don't think anyone on the team has a Fielder/Braun type breakout unless you want to count Weeks being healthy so the breakout category is more of a subtle practice than last year.

I watched that 9-0 win Brewer replay on FSN with Cirillo pitching in the 9th twice in the same week. That probably isn't healthy.

Villanueva and Riske. Riske is more of the high 3 ERA guy from previous seasons so people will be upset when he is a pretty average RP. Everything about Villanueva's stats screams 4+ ERA to me and I know a lot of people are thinking he has a breakout. Hardy was my breakout pick, I think his OBP will go up a good bit and while the HR's will come down in the end he will be more valuable, plus his defense will improve this year as I think his knee/hip/back problems last year really cut into his defense. It will be a subtle breakout but he'll be more valuable than last year when you look deeper into the numbers.

I liked Yost to start 2007 and grew to hate him, i don't see why he couldn't earn my respect back. He made a lot of just terrible moves, there are moves that you can question and not be sure if you are correct or not and then there are idiotic moves like leaving Mench in to face Dempster with the game on the line and Jenkins on the bench. Yost made too many of those sure thing bad moves for me to stick by him last season. He also has to stop doing that little wince/grin thing when one of his bad moves doesn't work, that thing is really frustrating.

We will all praise Ted Simmons, of course. Btw, according to this article.... http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7058 Ted Simmons is the worst baserunner since 1956!

For entertainment value only. Inside the park HR = 10 Triple - 8 Home Run -7 Double - 5 Steal - 3 Single - 2 Walk - 2 The Walk number might be weird but I love watching a hitter work the count.

Hall felt he could play through it, turns out he was wrong but you cant' blame him for trying. I also disagree Mota will be a liablility in the bullpen, he'll likely be about what Wise would have been but can go back to back days unlike Wise.

He started 10 of the teams first 16 games before the wrist injury so I think that was partially because of Mench's hot start (stupid Yost).

I'd try to move one for a C prospect if they can find a fit.

Soto has 1 good year in the minors and he's an all star C, Dillon has multiple good years and he's a huge question mark. No, I'm not all that worried about the bench. I'm worried about the backup C more than a little but the bench should be fine, especially if we pick up a LF or 3B.

His MLE's strongly suggest that the BB/K numbers will improve and mostly offset the BABIP dip. Shandler still has himd own for .302 AVG and .947 OPS. His skills fully supported a .300 AVG in the 2nd half last year.

There is no easy answer. OBP seems to transfer better than SLG. Fielding transfers better than offense. Top end players seem to transfer better than simply good players.

Yeah, i'd be shocked if Hall moves to 3B unless an injury somehow forces a move. They are trying to be fair to him as a player and stop moving him around so much. It would be nice to get a safe 3B so Braun moves to LF and doesn't have to worry about moving back to 3B. Most of the options we have discussed have been risky though. Rolen - Shoulder Crede - Back Ensberg - slumps Blalock - injuries etc I'm not sure it is going to happen.

What if it grows back and has to be removed again?

I can agree that defensive metrics are not as advanced as offensive, I can agree that it takes 2 seasons of data to really get a good feel for them. I cannot agree that they are rubbish, Braun is an absolutely terrible defensive 3B right now and there really is no way to argue any other opinion on it. He might very well improve next year, young players are generally defecient in defense and he hasn't played 3B all that long. This is 'the year' as I see it and I'm not sure we can take the chance on hoping he improves if there is another option out there. The Cubs will always be in contention and the Reds have one of the best minor league systoms in baseball so we have to deal with them soon. At some point the Astros might get a GM that has a clue and they have the money to contend as well. The division wont' stay this weak forever.

Just updating this since I found more information. http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/forecast_evaluations/#26 replies 22-26. PECOTA comes out ahead in pitching and hitting with a more specific advantage with players who were harder to forecast. Chone was using the book revision of PECOTA which is an unfinished projection set that doesn't even include things like team defense or any off season moves etc which is what most people would be looking at.

Blanton scares me so not interested in him. I'd love Haren but I would think we'd have to give up too much young talent to get him.