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nate82

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Everything posted by nate82

  1. nate82
  2. nate82
    Unless his offense drops off by a lot he still has enough value at DH to be worth the contract through his first five years. I think he probably only pitches for half of his contract so about five years. I don't think his offense will fall off all that much. I think he will have a career trajectory closer to what Barry Bonds was having from '95-'99 for his 30-35 age season. I think he may fall off after 35 but I don't think it will be a steep decline maybe he only hits 25-30 HR's a year from age 36-38 and then be basically replacement level for the last two or three years of his contract. Pitching wise he is probably on the same trajectory as Verlander. Somehow Verlander has gotten better as he has aged kind of like Nolan Ryan well except for this year that is. If you take the conservative route of Ohtani being a 35-40 HR player for his age 30-35 seasons and then only pitching for three years of his next contract and he puts up a 3.50 ERA for those three years you have basically received nearly all of his contract worth in the first five years of the contract. Probably close to 60-70% of the contracts value just in the first five years and that is not even counting the other value that Ohtani would bring in.
  3. nate82
    I believe the and should be a or in their list at least that is how I read it as.
  4. nate82
    Yes, as long as the player starts the year on the team you can offer a QO and get draft pick compensation.
  5. nate82
    Feels like Burnes is always giving up a big hit to some no named scrub player hitting .200 or below.
  6. nate82
    Most of the players named I am not sure the Mets would have had much interest in them. Nimmo is playing great in CF so cross off Frelick. They have Baty at 3B in the minors again so unless they thought Black was a 2B that crosses Black off the list. They have a young catcher in Alvarez on their MLB roster now so Quero makes no sense here either. That leaves Misiorowski as the only prospect that would be of interest to the Mets not named Chourio as a headliner. If the Mets saw Misiorowski as a starting pitcher I don't see how they pass on him as the headliner for an Alonso trade. I am going to assume they don't see him as a starter and more as a reliever. I just don't think the Brewers prospects lined up all that well with the Mets. It is probably why the deal didn't go all that far. The Brewers didn't have what the Mets wanted in return for Alonso.
  7. nate82
    I think you could remove Black, Frelick and Quero from the list. Well Black maybe if they thought he was more of a 2B than a 3B. Quero and Frelick don't make much sense for the Mets with Alvarez and Nimmo in NY already. I think this is more of a the Brewers didn't have a prospect that played the right position for the Mets to make the move. Obviously Chourio would have been a yes from the Mets but he wasn't in the discussion. Baty is also possibly another reason why the Mets wouldn't want Black. Maybe the Mets also see Misiorowski as a relief pitcher and not a starter which would lower his value a lot. I find it hard that the Mets wouldn't have traded Alonso for Misiorowski and another piece unless they didn't believe he was a starting pitcher.
  8. nate82
    Still waiting on that Cardinals run that was supposed to happen.
  9. nate82
    Heretic!!
  10. nate82
    Stop feeding the troll.
  11. nate82
    Neither are true. The back injury was a source which hasn’t been corroborated. JT has denied ever stating he had back pain. The ankle he has been rehabbing. He is supposed to report to training camp this week but with the current news I doubt that will happen now. The Colts are definitely not getting a 1st for JT. At best that they could hope for is a 4th round pick. They have backed themselves into a corner here.
  12. nate82
    You are not getting much for Houser even if he finishes strong. He is a #4 or #5 starter depending on how you look at him. It will be his final arbitration year and he will be making about the same as a FA #4 or #5 starter so not much surplus value left to trade from. If you are adding a prospect in a Houser deal why even deal Houser? The only thing you are going to be getting back is salary relief. You may even lower the value of the deal meaning you will get less in return than if you just dealt the prospect without Houser. I like Houser but he is what he is. There is not much value in trading #5 starters who are a year away from free agency. You are basically just going to get back a AAAA type of player or someone like Winker. You will either need to take on a similar salary meaning they are probably about the same value as Houser which means they are definitely not going to be an "actual hitter".
  13. nate82
    They would need to win 15 games and they have 5 vs the Pirates, 6 vs the Phillies, 6 vs the Padres, 3 vs the Braves, 6 vs the Reds, 3 vs Orioles and 7 vs the Brewers. Only the Pirates and Padres are under .500. They have 31 games against playoff contenders if you include the Padres otherwise only 25 games against playoff contenders. They would need to win the remaining games against the Pirates for 5 wins and then pick up 10 wins against the Phillies, Padres, Braves, Reds, Orioles and Brewers. They would need to go 10-21 against those teams which is possible but not all that likely. If they only pick up 2 or 3 against the Pirates then that means winning 12 or 13 against the playoff contenders which gets even more difficult. And I was being questioned for stating the Cardinals were out of it back in June and July because that one time the Cardinals were able to make a comeback and make it into the playoffs.
  14. nate82
    That is one way to give back to the community. Of all the advertisement ideas I wouldn't even be against this.
  15. nate82
    I have seen the Dolphins cap around $10-13mm so I believe they would have enough. I completely forgot about the Dolphins. I knew they were interested in Cook but completely forgot they didn't really go out and get a RB as they have Mostert as their starting RB now. JT to the Dolphins makes some sense. I think the Colts will want a 3rd or 4th round pick but I think the best offer they will get is a 6th and 7th for JT. The Dolphins only have their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th and 7th round picks for next years draft so it will probably be a 6th round pick in '24 and a 7th in '25. Feels kind of low but if the Colts ask for more then the players union may have a case for a grievance against the team. Something around a 2nd or 3rd round pick should be a contract around $5-8m which is about middle of the road RB territory. JT is probably asking for something around $10mm annually. If that is the case he is not all that far off on his valuation. If the Colts are only offering around $3-4mm annually then their best case is a 5th-7th round pick maybe a 4th round pick at the high end. The players union would have a grievance case against the Colts and I think they win that due to the value that the teams put on the draft picks.
  16. nate82
    I see what you did there.
  17. nate82
    The Colts have given Jonathan Taylor permission to seek a trade. https://theathletic.com/4794686/2023/08/21/jonathan-taylor-trade-request-colts-irsay/?source=user_shared_article I am going to go with the Bears as a possible destination for JT, though I don’t think he fits into their offensive scheme. Hard to find another team that would have the cap room to extend him to a contract he would sign. Probably a 2nd or 3rd round pick in return should be JT’s value.
  18. nate82
    It is based more on median income and discretionary spending than the total number of people. I believe Milwaukee is only ahead of Detroit when it comes to median household income. The total number of people is only a small part of the equation. It factors in but median household income is far more important. If the median household income is equal or very close then yes total population would win out. You have to look at it at how much each view is worth.
  19. nate82
    I thought the Cubs were supposed to be in 1st place after this series?
  20. nate82
    Probably but it is baseball nothing ever goes as expected.
  21. nate82
    I thought the Brewers were supposed to be non competitive this series?
  22. nate82
    That Rodgers jersey looks like a Bears jersey but I think it is an alternate Packers one. Otherwise I would say nice troll by that person!
  23. nate82
    The knob of the bat should follow the ball’s path everything else is irrelevant.
  24. nate82
    I still believe the Brewers plan for next year is to compete unless they are absolutely overblown with an offer for Burnes or Woodruff. Adames maybe traded in the off season to the Dodgers but nailing down a return for that is extremely difficult. Adames still brings elite level defense at SS and his bat this year has been absolutely awful but better than what the Dodgers have been putting out there. I don't believe the Dodgers see Lux as an everyday SS and instead see him more as a 2B.
  25. nate82
    I still believe height is overrated in baseball or at least people seem to put too much weight into it. I would rather draft or sign someone based on their athleticism and their bat skills for hitters and pitching mechanics for pitchers over what their height is or isn't. If the player is a 1B only type of a player sure take height into consideration. But that only really tells me that they shouldn't be drafted high or signed to a large signing bonus. If someone is a 1B only defensively I don't really want to draft or sign them unless they are an absolute can't miss prospect like a Harper, Ohtani, Bonds, Thomas, etc...
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