nate82

Watson suspension will be 11 games and a $5m fine. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34412381/source-cleveland-browns-qb-deshaun-watson-suspended-11-games-fined-5m-settlement-nfl-nflpa The Brows will only have about 6-games with Watson and realistically it is probably only 3-games as it will take him some time to get into the flow of the game and build chemistry with the team. Building chemistry with the O-line and the receivers are probably some of the more underrated parts of being a good QB. No chemistry or flow with your receivers and you are missing wide open throws and getting picked off. No chemistry with the O-line is where sacks, fumbles and rushed throws happen. If a QB can't get in sync with the O-line it is going to be a long year for the QB and team. I think the Browns still get to 9 wins which should put them in the 12-15 pick range.

I am data-minded but unfortunately do not have the time to do this but an interesting idea.

Let me rephrase as it was "poor" wording on my part on both points. By crying poor I mean fans of the Badgers there shouldn't be any crying poor that the Badgers can't afford xyz coach because they don't have the money as they definitely have the money to do so. Players can be paid and this started in 2022. Wisconsin is one of the 22 schools that pays its student athletes an academic bonus. Hopefully this continues now that they have more funds. https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/33684066/only-21-130-ncaa-fbs-level-schools-say-plans-provide-allowed-academic-bonus-payments-athletes-year

Just saying they shouldn’t be crying poor. Competitively it is the same but UW shouldn’t be crying poor anymore with this new TV deal when it comes to paying coaches or players.

All things considered a split against the Dodgers is a win IMHO.

The Big Ten officially announces their 7-year $7 billion TV contract with Fox, CBS and NBC. Deal starts in 2023. This gives the Big Ten about $1 billion a year to share with its members. I never want to hear about the Badgers not having money ever again. It is about $62m a year the school will be receiving just from this deal. I believe this is more than what the Brewers get from their TV contract. https://news.yahoo.com/b1g-deal-big-ten-lands-132722299.html

McCutchen stings a ball last inning and a soft fly ball wins it. Stupid baseball logic.

LOL

That is one weird strike zone.

That Adames hit should have been a HR. If MLB was using the 2020 ball that is a HR but with the current ball it is just a loud out.

This hurt the Brewers but something had to be done. The parade of relievers was just insane and added another 15-30 minutes to the game. The only thing they need to get rid of now is the three batter rule for relief pitchers. Would be better to just implement a maximum number of pitching changes per game excluding extra innings. Actually just reducing the game to seven innings would be a better idea.

Yes the Yankees and Dodgers could afford the Yelich contract but all you are getting back for Hader and Yelich is a signed baseball by a homeless guy in New York or Los Angeles. Also the Dodgers and Yankees would want the Brewers to pay for some of Yelich's contract in that trade so you are now paying Yelich to play for the Dodgers or Yankees. It would have been an absolutely horrible idea to include Yelich in a Hader trade.

It maybe because of the AL being on TBS this year and the scheduling is off because of that. It looks like it is just the AL has this weird schedule.

Very wrong you uncivilized monster!!!!

There is no evidence of the ball changing in 2019. So it looks like 2019 was just an anomaly but one that MLB wanted to reverse. Though the 2019 ball did have less drag which would explain for the increase in home runs. There just isn't any evidence of the ball being altered or different in 2019 compared to the 2018 or earlier balls. If MLB is to be believed and without any evidence stating otherwise the ball wasn't changed in 2019 but was changed in 2021. MLB has stated the ball wasn't changed in 2020 but there is some evidence that it was changed in 2020. There were actually different balls in 2020 just like there were two different balls in the 2021 season. Also the teams that installed new humidors in 2022 are seeing a lower rate of home runs compared to teams that already had a humidor installed. Something is odd with this season but that would only bring us into a conspiracy theory territory as it is impossible to tell if something changed with the humidors. Still it seams like the 2021 baseballs are here to stay for now which it looks like it has a huge impact on Yelich hitting for power. Other than his bottom of the zone launch angle issues Yelich's power looks to be killed with the new baseball.

From: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-playoff-format-faq Is the Division Series still a best-of-five? Yes. The only thing that has changed with regard to the Division Series is how teams get there. It will remain a best-of-five in a 2-2-1 format, with home-field advantage going to the higher seed. MLB recently have done this weird scheduling where they try to stagger some of the games after game one.

The ball didn't change in 2018 or 2019. There were some changes to the 2020 ball and in 2021 is when MLB really started to change the ball. Though due to production issues balls from 2020 were also used in 2021 so there was a mixture of baseballs in the 2021 season. Now in the 2022 season there is only the 2021 ball. This ball is creating more drag than previous baseballs in the past. While exit velocities are up so is the drag on the ball which is causing it not to fly as far. MLB did not test for drag in the new baseball they only tested for how bouncy the ball was. I am not sure if this has been updated yet but see below on the drag for the baseball's in 2022. The higher drag means the ball will not travel as far. The change in the drag of the baseball has definitely had an impact on Yelich far more than anything else. When he hits the ball it is just not going as far as it was in 2018 or 2019 and that is due to the new baseball. If the 2018-2019 baseball's were brought back I believe you would see Yelich's home runs increase back to what he was doing in 2018-2019. The only bad part of Yelich is what I pointed out in my previous post where his launch angle down in the zone especially bottom-center is nothing but ground balls. Yelich's 2018-2019 season he only had one negative area in the strike zone and in 2022 it is nearly matching his 2016 season.

Yes but that is only during the season and only during home games. A bar or an entertainment area would bring in money year round. If the Brewers are smart about this they could have a money maker throughout the year. It should probably be attached to the stadium so they are able to get revenue when there are other events occurring at the stadium.

Not necessarily. Depending on the return that you get for a Burnes trade like the one I proposed Rodriguez or Henderson are both in AAA and should be available for 2023 at the earliest maybe 2024 at the latest. So it wouldn't make any sense to do a complete tear down. If you are trading Burnes for players in A ball or lower then yes it would make sense to do a complete tear down but if you are trading for players in AA or AAA then no it does not make any sense at all to do a complete tear down. You can also trade pieces at a different time. If the prospects you get from a Burnes or Woodruff trade need more time then you can make another trade to get more prospects. Doing it all at once doesn't really help at all. The Brewers still have 2023 and 2024 for Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, Lauer and Houser. Also Urias will only be heading into Arb-1 next year so he is here through 2025. Even if you think the prospects are not ready having these players in 2023 start the year with the Brewers isn't a bad idea. You could even keep them and roll the dice on 2024 with Woodruff/Burnes in the rotation and Adames, Urias and others on the team. It is nearly impossible to say if the Brewers will be competitive or not in 2024.

I think the Brewers will have to seriously consider trading one of Burnes or Woodruff this off season. With the Brewers budget constraints I don't see how the Brewers improve the team next year over what the Brewers currently have. The Brewers will already have to depend on at least three of Feliciano, Frelick, Mitchell, Ruiz, Turang or Wiemer. Rookies can be a huge question mark performance wise as they adjust to MLB and as MLB adjusts to them. Not to mention that Yelich and Hiura are both huge question marks offensively. Both Hiura and Yelich are both DH only at this point right now as Yelich has completely declined in the OF. With little money to spend on a free agent I just don't see the Brewers playing all that much in free agency if they do it will probably just be bringing McCutchen back or someone like Gallo on a prove it type of a deal. I think the Brewers are going to have a hard time improving the team without trading one of Burnes or Woodruff. Yelich is unlikely to be traded and if he is you would have to bring back another bad contract like Rendon but even that would require the Angels to kick in about $30m to even out the value. If you don't want to bring in a bad contract then you will need to add Yelich to a Burnes package and then you are getting even less prospects back. You may only get back one 50FV prospect back in that deal maybe even less. The Brewers are basically stuck with Yelich right now so any trades involving him are pure fantasy at this point. The other problem is Yelich can block a trade to any team so the Brewers would have to ask Yelich on teams he would approve a trade to. This will hurt Yelich's value even more. As for Lauer and Houser you are probably looking at prospects at A ball or lower for them. I don't think you will get MLB ready pieces for them and if you do it is probably a AAAA type of a player or someone who is blocked. Lauer I believe has more value than Houser due to Houser's recent injury. I think a trade with the Rangers for the Brewers makes the most sense either Burnes, Lauer or Woodruff. Something like Lauer for Acosta would be fair right now though if Acosta continues to hit in A ball like he has he maybe worth more than what you can get back for Lauer. If you are trading Lauer or Houser then you will be relying on Small to be that #5/6 starter and if you are trading one of Burnes or Woodruff he is basically in the rotation as your #5 depending on what comes back in the Burnes or Woodruff trade(s). I still believe a soft reset is what the Brewers are going to do this off season. I am not sure that is the right answer but a full blowup isn't needed either. Frelick, Turang, Ruiz and Feliciano all should be up at some point in 2023 those are guaranteed call ups I believe. Then you have Mitchell, Wiemer and Small as strong possible callups in 2023 and then you have Gasser with a slight chance of being called up in 2023. This would then set up the Brewers rather well in 2024. I think 2023 will be a down year for the Brewers with 2024 being a rebound year. I believe the best option would be to trade Burnes this off season and try to get as many players back as possible. I think this trade works for both the Brewers and the Orioles. The Orioles need some pitching to go with their younger prospects and they could possibly extend Burnes as they don't have much in the way of payroll currently. This would be a better option than going the FA route for a pitcher. Orioles get: Burnes Brewers get: Mayo (1B), Norby (2B), Rodriguez (RHP) and Westburg (2B/SS) or Brewers get: Henderson (3B), Johnson (RHP) and Mayo (1B). The Brewers would get a top of the rotation starter who could be in the rotation in 2023 in Rodriguez. Mayo is a slugging 1B who was recently promoted to AA. Norby and Westburg are the wild cards here and both have hit better as they moved up a level. Norby is in AA and Westburg is in AAA. The second trade gives the Brewers a new starting 3B for 2023 in Henderson and then also Johnson who the Orioles received in the Mancini trade. Johnson is currently recovering from TJ surgery. I like the first trade better as it gives the Brewers more rolls at the prospect dice and more ammunition for a future trade with Norby and Westburg added to the mix. Option one gives the Brewers a rotation in 2023 of: Woodruff, Peralta, Ashby, Lauer and Rodriguez. Still a good rotation that should allow the Brewers to compete. The offense on the other hand will be about the same. In 2024 is where this deal shines where you have Woodruff, Peralta, Ashby, Rodriguez and Gasser. Lauer and Houser would have been traded in the 2023 deadline for a prospect or two. You could even trade Woodruff and place Small as the #5 for 2024. Option two gives the Brewers a slightly better offense in 2023 though with the risk of a lot of rookies in the lineup. The 2024 season though would be a make or break year for the Brewers as Woodruff will be on his last year. Though the Brewers could trade Woodruff during the 2023 deadline and bring in more prospects. C : Caratini and Feliciano 1B: Tellez, Hiura and Brosseau 2B: Turang and Urias 3B: Henderson, Brosseau and Urias SS: Adames, Turang and Urias RF: Renfroe and Taylor CF: Frelick, Taylor and Turang LF: Yelich, Renfroe, Taylor and Frelick DH: Hiura, Tellez, Yelich and Renfroe There are some other options where the Brewers could trade both Renfroe and Adames to clear some space financially. Urias is also another possibility to be traded. Still though the Brewers best option this off season is probably to trade one of Burnes or Woodruff.

That is still not 100%. Even at 95% there is a 5% chance of it not happening.

If you are trading either Woodruff or Burnes I don't believe it would be a good idea to invest much in free agency. It would just be wasted resources to invest in free agency if you are trading Woodruff or Burnes. If the Brewers keep both Woodruff and Burnes then FA is probably not something the Brewers are going to play much in maybe if they can get someone on a one or two year deal around $15m annually at most. I think Mullins and Reynolds can be crossed off the list as possible trade targets. It just doesn't make sense for the Orioles to trade Mullins unless it is in a deal for Burnes or Woodruff but then that doesn't make much sense for the Brewers. I don't believe the Pirates will trade Reynolds unless they get a Soto like return or more. I don't see any team giving the Pirates that for Reynolds so he is going to stay with the Pirates. I don't believe a single team even got farther than asking if Reynolds was available this deadline. The Pirates are just not interested in trading him unless a team severely over pays. If the Brewers go the FA route I think they go with someone like Gallo and hope for a bounce back year for him on a one or two year deal. I think that would be the only OF they would go after. At 1B/DH I think the Brewers just move Yelich to DH permanently and don't go after a FA to play there. Maybe at 1B the Brewers add someone like Mancini to platoon with Tellez. I don't believe the Brewers will spend all that much in FA this coming off season and if they do it will be maybe one or two players but that is about it. As for trades I just don't see anyone who will be available that will be a major improvement over what the Brewers already have. The only player that will be available who would be an improvement over what the Brewers have now is Ohtani and I just don't see the Angels trading him. The options are limited in the trade market. With how the Orioles have played this year I think they will be looking to add and not substract from their MLB roster so as previously pointed out Mullins is off the table. The best option this off season would be to trade Burnes or Woodruff and try to do a soft reset and bring in as much talent as possible.

This is the problem with Yelich other than one spot of the bottom of the strike zone Yelich has a negative launch angle which means he is just beating those pitches into the ground. Lower-mid is a huge red flag. He shouldn't be launching those pitches but is instead just beating them into the ground. But his 2022 looks a lot like his 2017 though the upper and middle part of the zone were better. His 2018 wasn't all that much better in the bottom of the zone but only one was at a negative launch angle. Actually all of his other part of the zone are about the same as his 2018 MVP it is just that the bottom of the zone has regressed back to his 2017 season. I am thinking the juiced balls in 2018 and 2019 helped Yelich more so than his power just disappearing. The ball changing in 2020-22 has had more of an impact on Yelich than his injury or swing.

It looked like he touched the ball a second time in fair territory on his swing. So he should have been out regardless.