CheezWizHed

They swapped a 6th for a 7th round pick, so they give up next to nothing to get Dobbs. Behind Hall they had a QB on the practice squad and another QB on IR. I'm guessing they felt they needed some depth.

Clearly this is more about the GM than the HC. But of the HC leaves, many or all of his staff will leave. It might open the flood gates if people don't like the uncertainty of who may come.

A chance at what? Battling the Bears for .500?

The dude was slighted by all the complaints of his coverage on Adams... picked it up last game to shut down TJ Hockenson.

So, looking beyond CC as a coach... What impact might this have on our player development? One of the biggest improvements David Sterns made to our organization would be with our player identification and development. The pitching lab, Latin America scouting, draft success. None of that has to do with CC directly, but if he does leave, does that put us at risk of an exodus of other talent moving to NYM or where ever? I want CC to return, but he won't be our couch forever either. I just want to be sure that our pitching lab and scouting departments remain strong and developing new scouts/coaches.

I'm still "thinking my way through" an evaluation of Gute as a drafter, so I'm not trying to defend or destroy him at this point. Just trying to evaluate. Having said that, Gute has a large number of players ready to play right away too. Alexander, Savage, Jenkins, Tom, Myers, Q Walker, Reed, and Doubs were all pretty high performers quickly. Watson was unique because his skills were raw, but actually contributes because of this athleticism (at least last year). Dillon, Deguara, Newman, and others contributed immediately at about their "max" ability... but were more marginal in their contributions. But his approach certainly adds a risk when a high draft pick takes 2-3 years to develop.

Starter home thoughts. The problem isn't exactly new. Certainly it is exacerbated by inflation and other factors - clearly ebbs and flows in the markets and changes in demand, but demand always produces opportunity for people t meet the demand. When I was out of college in the mid-90s and trying to find a place in Libertyville, IL (a far-northern suburb of Chicago), housing was so crazy that anyone close to work had two people working professional jobs just to afford the house (i.e. $250-400k back then). I ended up living 25 miles (and a 45 min commute) away in WI just to get a 1100 sq ft rambler with no basement for $100k. At current day prices, those numbers are probably doubled. I think part of the problem is dealing with expectations. People want an easy route to having cheap housing in an area with high salary jobs, but that just doesn't exist. If you want to work downtown because of high salaries, there is going to be high cost of living with it. But rather you need to take the moneyball approach... if people are buying new, buy old. If they are buying houses, look at a condo or townhome. Start small, build equity and upgrade. Move out to cheaper houses and move into the area you prefer as you can afford it. I'm on my 4th home now and it is worth about $800k (covid-inflation has increased it dramatically). Owning a home is key to protect yourself from inflation.

Except Corbin is in his prime. Health is a huge differentiator. Signing Corbin is about $$ and budgets. Signing Cousins is more about the direction of the team - rebuild or patch up the tires and see if they can get another 1000 miles off of it.

Back to Gute drafting evaluation... Obviously, he has a preference for athletic players. To the point that predicting who he drafts early is often done by looking at RAS numbers. But that also has led to instances where he drafts people that take time to develop. Gary and Van Ness being the poster children for that philosophy. Love could also be included here (i.e. he wasn't NFL ready right away) with extenuating circumstances given Rodgers. Watson and MVS are other examples, though less impactful since they are lower draft picks (especially MVS). But because of that philosophy, players contribute less and at lower levels early in their careers. Both MVS and Gary had a few years of minimal impact because of this and really only started coming on a year or two before getting their second contracts. So often (not always) when Gute does hit on a pick... the player ultimately has less impact on their rookie deal. Is there a "WAR" statistic in football? I still think Gute is a good drafter, but maybe a knock on his philosophy as I've thought about it more.

Agreed. Doubs looks like a nice #2. Really looks like a smart player, but disappears for long stretches. He and Love don't seem to click for whatever reason. Reed is the one in this group that looks like he could blossom. He seems very natural out there. Wicks also has great instincts. At worst, those 3 WRs give you a nice group of #2 and #3 type WRs. Watson looks like MVS. Injury prone and one single button - fast. Needs a lot of work on his routes. He could develop, but it is going to take some time; also similar to MVS.

Cousins REALLY wants to be like Rodgers...

The starting schedule is pretty funny though. 76ers, Hawks, Heat... just missing the Celtics (Nov 22nd) for a playoff preview to start the season.

Yeah, I was expecting the "over" on 14 points... I was surprised by hanging with them for 3 quarters. Like the Packers, I don't expect much from them in a transition year. Unlike the Packers, they seem to be growing from game-to-game and getting better. Still a talent gap (that hopefully consistently improved recruiting will fix), but the team is showing growth. I was not disappointed by that loss.

Rodger's cellphone coverage was notoriously spotty! 😂

Less than Rodgers did (not sure if I should put that in blue or not...). Certainly he has some. Cuts would mostly be his to make I'd imagine. Less so on the bringing guys in aspect. Yes, that could be a distinct possibility. My guess is all three of Love, MLF, and Gute get another year. Maybe a 33% chance MLF goes. 20% chance Gute goes too.

Gute's good moves: FA Signings: Z Smith, P Smith, Amos, Turner, Lewis, Graham, Campbell, Douglas, Also some good band-aid signings like Wagner and Kelly (short term, but helped fill a need). Note how many of these were early when we had cap space. He was very limited the last few years. Draft picks: Alexander, Jenkins, MVS, Lazard (UDFA), Love*, JRJ, Slaton, McDuffie, Tom, Quay, Wyatt, Doubs, Reed, Brooks, Valentine, Carlson - noting a bit lower "expectation" on the lower draft picks. Starters found the 4th round and later are wins to me. * - I include Love for one simple point that will be debated... It woke up Rodgers and he played with a chip on his shoulder after two years of decline. Doesn't matter if Love flops himself... I think the pick was worth it. Overall, I'd say Gute is: FA signings: A Draft: B (I'd really want to dig in and compare to get this a bit better, but gut feel) Team management (hiring coaches, communications, extensions, and player management): D Dealing with Rodgers was poor... but Rodger's himself is part of that blame (i.e. I live in an area with poor cell phone reception???). MLF seemed like a good hire at the time, but he doesn't seem to build his supporting team well. I remember at the time of his hire there was much discussion about his preferred OC/DC coaches and below them... no one he wanted was available, so his other hires seemed rushed and random. Of course Joe Barry has been a headscratcher. Not sure how all that reflects on Gute, but not well overall. He seems decent at extending the right people at the right time... Some key people were let go and most of those decisions seemed sound for the $$ that was asked. A few misses on extending people he should've walked away from. Davante trade and Rodgers extension timing seemed odd. Possibly just poor timing. But a big chunk of what we are dealing with now (very young team) is paying the piper for trying to keep Rodger's SB window open.

Doh. Forgot about that. $22.5M more next year.

He is a FA next year. Packers declined his 5th year option.

Nice to see Locke continue to improve. Poor start today, but started looking better as we went. Sort of knew that we were short on talent on this team, but have a good season to build upon. Add a bit more talent and they play with Ohio St today.

Well...you're not breaking it to me, I'm saying Eli was NOT a HOF caliber QB, he'll get in because he won 2 SBs...but they didn't win 2 SBs because he was a great QB. Big Ben...perhaps, but it still took elite complimentary FB to get him to the SB and give them a chance and then they just kinda limped along the rest of his career. Matt Ryan's career will likely not be a HOF career due to a 28-3 lead lost. Clearly there are ranges of HOF QBs. Often winning a SB or two pushes the difference. I think Kirk Cousins is a better QB than Eli Manning, but Eli will make it (2 SBs, 2 SB MVPs) while Kirk probably won't. That isn't the point. Brady for the last 4 SB wins and second half of his career, sure. But everyone says a QB on a rookie deal is the best way to win a SB!! Took the best QB ever to be the only one in the last 23 years (I didn't look before that) to accomplish it twice. He was a better QB as he ages (which is why I say QBs on rookie deals aren't as successful) but you can't discount his play in his first 2 wins either... Hurts I don't think is a HOF caliber QB. Agreed. He hasn't won a SB either, so that doesn't impact my argument Again, Joe Burrow failed in College save for one year. If Love's Soph year would have been his Jr, there wouldn't have been those "questions." Joe didn't even start until he transferred. Then he had one HUGE breakout year. He is early in his career, but eyeball test kind of looks like he is probably going to be HOF material. I do love how people continue to discount my argument for the importance of a high performing (i.e. HOF level) QB as the biggest key to winning a SB. Of course, they need a strong supporting cast, but that continues to be the key point. Thus, I don't think "Can we win a SB with this guy?" Is the right question... You can win a SB with just about anyone at QB (Dilfer, McMahon), but that window is REALLY small. A better Q would be, "Can he lead (or carry) us to the SB?". If not, I prefer to move on until we can find one that fits that bill.

Going to MSOE (i.e. the other-other downtown Milwaukee college), I picked UW as my school to cheer for. Kind of an anti-Marquette vibe at MSOE too being a mile away from each other. But I can't say I've seen much of a rivalry between them and UW either. Just mainly that one game a year, which you do have to pick one team. But I don't have an issue cheering for them in the tourney. It was fun when Marquette, UW, and UWGB (or occasionally UW-Mil) were all in the tourney.

So, very fun game last night. Obviously, defense has work to do. New system, losing Holliday... there is time for that to improve. Dame was impressive. I was worried watching preseason as he looked very passive. Not so much last night. His second gear while driving is a sight to behold. Giannis needs to learn now when to peel back. Looking for Dame when he drives and people sink on him. Looking to play more with the ball out of his hands and off the pick-n-roll. Defense on bigs w/o reaching. Free throws. Good challenges for him this year. Nice to see Beauchamp out there a lot. I really think he is going to grow into that Middleton replacement role in the future. Beasley's D wasn't quite up to snuff, so MB was a nice replacement. Really moves well around the court.

Certainly both. A very large part of it is muscle memory and the ability to repeat a shot. But there is also the part where you were just running and now standing still; your heart is pounding, adrenaline running, everyone watching... You have to be able to block everything out.

I included Love's college stats as a comment because it was a weakness identified as he was drafted.... not just a recent issue. Josh Allen is a pretty decent example of what Love has to overcome. Of course, there are many other QBs with the same issue that never overcome it. I wouldn't call him a lock for the HOF though. Same for Hurts too. They are headed that way, but still a bit early to call them locks. Yes, winning a SB often makes a QB... but that is normally because he is the centerpiece of the team that wins it all. Most often because of him. And I hate to break it to you... Eli will most likely be in the HOF. Maybe not the first year, but he is going to get in. I'm not happy about it either... Point is... the easiest way to win the SB is have a top tier QB. You obviously need more (Dan Marino says "hi"), but it is much more likely when you have one than not (Trent Dilfer...). SB Winning QB Rookie Deal HOF Losing QB Rookie Deal HOF LVII (57) Maholms NO YES Jalen Hurts YES NO LVI (56) Stafford NO NO Burrows YES YES LV (55) Maholms NO YES Brady NO YES LIV (54) Maholms YES YES Garoppolo NO NO LIII (53) Brady NO YES Goff YES NO LII (52) Foles NO NO Brady NO YES LI (51) Brady NO YES Ryan NO NO 50 P Manning NO YES Newton NO NO XLIX (49) Brady NO YES Wilson YES YES XLVIII (48) Wilson YES YES P Manning NO YES XLVII (47) Flacco YES NO Kapernick YES NO XLVI (46) Eli Manning NO YES Brady NO YES XLV (45) Rodgers NO YES Roethlisberger NO YES XLIV (44) Brees NO YES P Manning NO YES XLIII (43) Warner NO YES Roethlisberger NO YES XLII (42) E Manning YES YES Brady NO YES XLI (41) P Manning NO YES Grossman YES NO XL (40) Roethlisberger YES YES Hasselbeck NO NO XXXIX (39) Brady NO YES McNabb NO NO XXXVIII (38) Brady YES YES Delhomme NO NO XXXVII (37) Gannon NO NO Brad Johnson NO NO XXXVI (36) Brady YES YES Warner NO YES XXXV (35) Dilfer NO NO Kerry Collins NO NO XXXIV (34) Warner NO YES McNair YES NO 29.2% 79.2% 29.2% 45.8% 7 19 7 11

Looking at SB winners for the last 23 years, a very large percentages of them have been won by HOF-type QBs and QB centric. We are a passing league. So when I evaluate Love, it isn't "Is this guy an NFL QB?" but "Can he become a HOF level?". If the answer is clearly "no", then I think we need to move on to the next guy. Love has great arm talent, but lacks in accuracy and anticipation of the defense. So the question to me is ... are those fixable? 55% completion is a non-starter. 62% seems like a minimum. Love only hit that mark once in 3 years in college. I was thinking wait and see more in terms of this year with Walker at Tackle. If LT is the BPA for us in the 1st round, he isn't a player you bypass an opportunity to improve.