Anyone who thinks we have more regression candidates than breakout candidates doesn't understand normal athletic trajectory. Young players tend to get better, older players tend to decline, and players in their mid to late 20's often level out around their peak for a few years. To have Sanatana, Hader, and Phillips on a regression list is to use a nice word - pessimistic. And Shaw is 27 years old. He might even have low enough miles on him to put in the "can still improve" category. But he's in his prime years so there's every reason to believe he can approximate last season. Same goes for Anderson and Suter - in their athletic prime years and low miles. Of course any one of these players could crash and burn. But then again every older player could outdo themselves and actually have better 2018's than 2017. You just don't know. However the fundamental reason why statistical forecast models are so accurate is because they account for age, experience, and the typical trajectory of an athlete's career. Santana, Hader, and Phillips should all be projected by models to provide even more.