JosephC

Santana getting sent down shouldn't be a slightest consideration. .338 OBP is one of the best marks on the team and they can't afford to take that out of the lineup. 0.016 ISO could be the biggest fluke number in all of MLB so far this year. There is pop in his bat and odds are that it will show itself soon.

Realmuto is a solid 3 WAR player. 3 x 9.16 (value per WAR) = 27.48 x 3 seasons of control = 82.44 million of value and I'd guess his arbitration earnings run somewhere around 16 million. 82-16 = 66 million and then multiply it by 0.972 since these last two weeks represented 2.78% of his remaining years of control. 64 million is a reasonable ask for the Marlins, I could see them being happy with 80% of that number but get below that and there is really no reason to move him. He isn't making a whole lot this season so it's not like he needs to be a part of a salary dump. I'd put the prospect surplus value of the named Brewer prospects as follows: -Woodruff = 17.86 million -Gatewood = 5.72 million -Supak = 5.72 million -Nottingham = 2.29 million Total = 31.59 million IMO that package is way short for a player like Realmuto. But at least you started with Woodruff which is a good enough name where it would catch the Marlin's attention. I'd listen to a revised package if you have one. Here's the problem I have with this kind of valuation: If you even peg Pina as a 1 WAR player, which seems entirely reasonable, that puts his surplus value at around $46M given 5 years control, so deducting arbitration and this year prorated still leaves him around $30M, which could balance this if you substitute Pina for Nottinham, which I would do but I doubt that moves the needle at all for the Marlins. I think the $9M per WAR estimate really needs to be revised after this last off-season. I agree with what you say here. Scooter Gennett is the perfect example. When the Brewers released him, I would guess that the majority of teams in the league probably viewed him as a 0.6-0.7 WAR player and he had 4 years of control left. But even so, he obviously was seen as having no value by the rest of the league because the Brewers could not swing a deal for him and ended up just cutting him loose. It does appear that there is a threshold that a player needs to pass in order to achieve trade value. I've toyed with the idea of trying to get an estimate of where that threshold lies and subtracting it out of a player's total WAR for the bigger name players. However, there have been too many trades in the past couple years where the numbers matched up perfectly (Quintana and Gray are two examples). So just to pull numbers out of my rear end with no solid statistical backing, it seems that once a player reached an ~2 WAR value or above they generally get "full credit" for their WAR estimates on the trade market. Get down in the area of 0.6 WAR or less, then the player likely won't bring back full WAR value and could very well be seen as having no real value (Keon Broxton?, seems there was plenty of interest him and the Brewers probably wanted to deal him, but since they didn't and he wound up in AAA I have to believe the offers for him were pretty terrible). Get in that 1-2 WAR area and it's probably a real grey area. Nonetheless, Realmuto is definitely in the upper category here. I don't see the Marlins giving him away as he doesn't make big money yet. And Realmuto would be coveted by many teams in the league. A back-end top 100 pitcher with no other top 10 organizational prospects doesn't get this done. All but a guarantee that another team would easily outbid that offer unless the Marlins really love the 4 players that were offered. And let's be honest, Woodruff is not a player that other teams would trip over to get at this point. Last year the guy was pitching down the stretch in a pennant race, he's 25 years old, the Brewers have shipped him back to AAA in favor of a journeyman like Junior Guerra. What in that equation makes him look like he would be highly coveted by opposing teams? He still definitely has solid prospect value, but teaming him up with 3 other non-top 10 organizational prospects to get a player like Realmuto...package seems real short to me. Only one way I could see the Brewers getting Realmuto as a discount price in terms of surrendering prospects, and that would be to take Martin Prado and the approximate 26.25 million left on his deal. Since they weren't going to give a starting pitcher a two year deal at the end of free agency, I very much doubt the Brewers would even have the financial flexibility to do this.

I'm not into all this "we need a fresh arm" crap that has occurred within the first two weeks of the season (because it is only two weeks into the season), but I'll be all for it if they send Drake out tomorrow because they need a fresh arm.

Realmuto is a solid 3 WAR player. 3 x 9.16 (value per WAR) = 27.48 x 3 seasons of control = 82.44 million of value and I'd guess his arbitration earnings run somewhere around 16 million. 82-16 = 66 million and then multiply it by 0.972 since these last two weeks represented 2.78% of his remaining years of control. 64 million is a reasonable ask for the Marlins, I could see them being happy with 80% of that number but get below that and there is really no reason to move him. He isn't making a whole lot this season so it's not like he needs to be a part of a salary dump. I'd put the prospect surplus value of the named Brewer prospects as follows: -Woodruff = 17.86 million -Gatewood = 5.72 million -Supak = 5.72 million -Nottingham = 2.29 million Total = 31.59 million IMO that package is way short for a player like Realmuto. But at least you started with Woodruff which is a good enough name where it would catch the Marlin's attention. I'd listen to a revised package if you have one.

I have no problem with the way the Brewers handled the Pina/DL situation. It would be different is Pina couldn't play, but I'm under the impression that he could have played these last few days if necessary. For example, I don't think it would be wise for the Brewers to DL Thames today and have him be ready to play 3 days from now and then lose a weeks worth of games when they need his bat versus right-handed pitching. The Brewers were in a situation where Pina was in day-to-day status and really the only other option they had was Nottingham who they probably didn't want to bring up this soon. I've been pretty critical of many of these early roster moves, but with the info I have it seems like they made the right decision here. Just too bad that Pina's calf didn't respond better than it apparently has.

Since he hasn't played since the 10th, I think it's safe to assume that Pina is headed to the DL. Brewers only have 4 catchers on the 40-man and Vogt is already on the DL, so if Pina is out for a few more days that leaves them with only Bandy and Nottingham. Betancourt may have been an option but that would have forced them to make a move with the 40-man roster, which is something they probably didn't want to do since this probably only impacts a five day window (considering a Pina DL move would be retroactive, half of the 10-day DL stint has already passed).

With a big-time veteran like Wade Miley back in June, I'd be very interested to see how interested the Brewers will be in throwing a rookie into the rotation. We currently have Guerra in there and Woodruff in AAA. Woodruff probably only got a rotation shot last year because the team completely ran out of arms. Conventional thought would be that once Miley is ready that Suter will get bumped because it seems pretty obvious that Counsell does not think Suter should be pitching through a lineup three times. If Nelson and Miley are ready at the beginning of July, do I see this collection of "Brewer brass" going with a young pitcher or just sticking with Anderson, Nelson, Chacin, Davies and Miley/Guerra? My guess would be Anderson, Nelson, Chacin, Davies and Miley/Guerra. And of course if Nelson isn't ready they still have Anderson, Chacin, Davies, Suter, Miley and Guerra all as options. I'm certainly not saying that I don't want to see the rookies in there (my whole off-season strategy would have been built around easing guys like Brinson, Phillips, Woodruff, Burnes, Taylor Williams, etc into big league roles). But what I would like to see the Brewers do and what they actually do tends to be on opposite ends of the spectrum most of the time.

This offense desperately needs Yelich back. The more and more I see of this offense the more and more it looks like the offense that ended last season. Last year the OBP woes plagued two spots in particular but this year it seems to have spread up and down the lineup (.297 OBP currently ranks 14th in the NL). For every spot that I'm confident will get better (Braun), there is a spot that has me worried (Shaw's OBP was .312 in Boston and was the reason many viewed him as a "second division" type third baseman, and he's off to a .299 OBP start this season). And while they've shown improvement in the strikeout department, the improvement has been pretty minimal (9.7 strikeouts per game in 2017, so far 9.44 strikeouts per game this season). They are averaging 3.5 runs per game, which ranks 12 out of 15 teams. Last year they finished tied for 10th in runs in the NL, so far it's been a slight step backward this season. Hopefully Yelich can give this offense a kick-start when he gets back.

Just guessing that 30 years ago players probably got grade 1 strains pretty much all the time, and nothing was ever said about it because it's a very mild injury. But for the modern day MLB player, it's almost a guaranteed trip to the 10 day disabled list.

Thames had 12 million left in guaranteed money before this season began. My estimate of value for this season is 1 WAR = 9.16 million (granted, folks could argue it should be less after what happened in free agency this off-season). But even if you knock it way down and say 1 WAR = 8 million, that means Thames only has to be a +1.5 WAR player total in 2018 and 2019 to break even in terms of surplus value. Averaging Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, Thames is already at 0.55 WAR for 2018 and we are not even 10% of the way into the season. There is no way he is a negative value player. But trading Thames is out of the question right now. The Brewers need his bat.

With Yelich likely to return from the DL soon, and with Thames hitting the ball like he's hitting it, I see plenty of maintenance days in Braun's near future. No need to rest him before the 15 game mark of the season when a week from now he might only be getting 3 or 4 starts a week.

I was pretty unhappy that the roster shuffle cost Woodruff the start today but have to hand it to Stearns/Counsell, Junior was great and I can't argue with the results. Hopefully we will get plenty more good starts from him this season.

Outstanding! How many outfield starts will Hernan Perez get now with this new outfield configuration? If Jorge Lopez does not pitch well, the board can expect to hear much moaning and complaining out of me. IMO Phillips should have stayed on the active roster and gotten at-bats until Yelich was back. But I understand why this move had to be made, Stearns and Counsell need to keep up the quota of making one active roster move per game so they look like the smartest guys in the league. Need that fresh arm...although a dead arm would have been better than the J.J. Hoover fresh arm. Or have we figured out that management has no confidence in the bottom 20% of the roster?

Management group (both front office and on field management) look a bit foolish after this one. Let's yo-yo Woodruff back and forth between Milwaukee and the minors and not just put him in the rotation and keep in the rotation. We need a fresh arm (even though we aren't even 10 games into the season). So Hoover comes up and the fresh arm has to get a whole ONE out at the end of a game that is seemingly already lost. Then he comes into the next game, gets shelled and loses the ballgame. It really wasn't that hard to predict this outcome, as from 2014-2017 Hoover had thrown 187 innings, had a 4.86 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 5.23 FIP. So after that performance we lose at least one start from Woodruff, who at worst should be getting evaluated as a major leaguer right now considering he was a top 100 prospect when he recently lost eligibility. And I very much doubt Tyler Webb figures into the Brewers future, and I think it's likely that he'll end up back in the Brewer's system after the DFA status expires. But there are moves I would have rather seen than exposing Webb to waivers. One would have been not putting Hoover on the active roster since Hoover had a four year track record of establishing himself as not really being a MLB quality pitcher. If Corbin Burnes is reading this, all I can say is you better start very fast once you hit the majors. Because if you have a sub-par 43 innings like Woodruff had last year you will probably be subjected to the MLB/AAA yo-yo and get replaced by a big timer like Wade Miley at Milwaukee's first opportunity to do so. And this organization has a near 50 year reputation of completely botching the pitching department? I never would have guessed..... But hey, if making one move with the active roster every game gets Stearns and Counsell to think that they are the smartest guys in the league, then they can keep having fun with that.

This isn't meant to be a commentary on Braun but rather a statement on the Brewer's great outfield depth. It was deeply disappointing yesterday to see Hernan Perez starting in left field. IMO the best part about the additions of Yelich and Cain along with Braun, Santana, Broxton and Phillips was that we'd never have to see outfield at-bats from players like Perez (who's bat isn't good enough to be getting starts as a corner outfielder) or Thames (who has no business playing in the outfield because of defense). But only 12 games into the season, there is Perez starting a game in left field. I realize that many events played into this happening (injury, slumps, pitching matchup, etc), but it's still disappointing when the team was thought to have so much quality outfield depth.

I prefer "boy wonder."

Thames slashed .265/.382/.551/.933 against righties last year and is off to a .200/.304/.650/.954 start against righties this year. He should play whenever there is a right-hander starting for the opposition. Sogard had a couple good months last year and outside of that has been an offensive black hole for almost his entire career. Didn't get a MLB at-bat in 2016 and in 730 plate appearances across 2014 and 2015 he hit a miserable .237/.296/.288/.584. I was disappointed that Stearns gave him that guaranteed money as quick as he did. Hard for me to think Sogard would have had any market based on his history and with the way the second base market played out it's looking like that was a mistake. Wouldn't be surprised if Sogard got Feliz'ed before the end of June.

https://www.mlb.com/indians/news/indians-injury-updates-for-danny-salazar-more/c-271207550 No definitive time-table there but by the sound of it, I'd be surprised if Salazar is ready before the end of May which takes him off the list of possibilities. And that's a shame because a Santana + parts for Salazar + parts seemed like a perfect matchup. So far Rajai Davis looks like he is no longer an MLB quality bat which I don't think is a big surprise to anyone (.231/.286/.308/.593). Bradley Zimmer is off to a terrible start (.167/.167/.167/.333) after not being very impressive at the plate last year during his first MLB go-around. Brandon Guyer looked like he might be a late-bloomer a few years ago but last year he slashed .236/.326/.327/.653 and is off to a .214/.214/.357/.571 start this year. I like Brantley and he'll hit if he stays healthy but that's a big question mark. I think Naquin should get a full opportunity to prove he can't do it and IMO they should already be giving consideration to bringing up Greg Allen. But for a team that should be a top contender, no question that their outfield situation is bad and they will probably have to be making some type of upgrade from outside the organization. However, with Zimmer struggling they may be forced to put him back in the minors. If so they will need another centerfielder. I think Keon Broxton may make more sense for them right now and he'd obviously come with a much cheaper price-tag.

I very much doubt that anyone would worry about Santana's slugging percentage with only 29 at-bats. If Santana goes out today and is 1/4 with a home run, the slugging percentage goes all the way from .310 to .394. The guy has legitimate pop in his bat and every evaluator would look at the current .034 ISO and know that isn't going to last.

I'm not much of a Suter fan, but there is way, way, way too much impatience with him. He's up to 113 1/3 MLB innings and has posted a 3.65 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 3.86 FIP, 120 ERA+ and 2.84 K/BB ratio so far. Guerra has posted a 3.72 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 4.78 FIP, 116 ERA+ and a 1.95 K/BB ratio in the majors. I think they need to stick with Suter for at least a half dozen more starts. Maybe he'll crap out, but maybe the 3.65 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, etc will stick and if so then he's a solid rotation piece when factoring in the low salary.

Wow, I thought the numbers in the Braun/Yount comparison would be much further in favor of Braun. The fact that Yount's numbers were closer than I expected really makes me lean towards calling Yount the better hitter when factoring in the era of each of the players, the home park factor and Yount not being all roided up like Braun makes Robin the easy pick and that's before even getting to the fielding aspect.

Hiura first hurt his elbow in April 2016 so now the problem has stretched out over a full two years. I was a bit skeptical about it when it was acknowledged that he first hurt his elbow in April 2016, then re-injured it in November of 2016 so the 7 months of "natural healing" did not fix the problem. Now we can tack another 17 months onto that and it still seems to be a problem.

Perez is out of options.

Great job by Sisco. Laying down bunts like that with the shift on is a guaranteed way to not make an out. More major league players would be wise to figure that out. I'd say that asking Sisco to make an out in that situation so some lazy Twins players can get home 5 minutes earlier would be disrespecting the game. Hats off to the young guy for doing what all hitters should be focused on doing in that situation, not making an out.

My big problem with Lawrie is that by the age of 25 he had already proven to be more fragile than Ryan Braun at the age of 34. It's also worth noting that Lawrie had a .303 OBP over his last 1268 MLB plate appearances.