JosephC

At first I thought he would be put in the rotation for sure, but am now questioning that after taking a further look at the numbers. Granted, extremely small sample size, but last year when used as a reliever Gallardo posted the following: 6 appearances, 16 innings pitched, 9 hits, 3 earned runs, 0 home runs allowed, 7 walks, 10 strikeouts, 1.00 WHIP, 1.69 ERA Opposition slash line = .164/.258/.255/.513 Interesting thing is that the overall numbers don't indicate that Gallardo was successful early in starts and faded as he got deeper into games. When looking at all of his appearances, the opposition slash line for Gallardo during pitches 1-15 of an appearance (both as a starter and reliever) was .299/.374/.535/.909. So it's not like he was successful early in his starts and faded early, where he might represent a safer projection to a relief role. Have to think that the small sample size during those relief appearances played a part in this signing. There are just no other numbers that indicate Gallardo should be getting a major league deal.

Herrera is only under team control for one more season, so actually his part of the price-tag might be pretty low. I guess the return for all three would be something like Lewis Brinson, Brandon Woodruff, Isan Diaz and Freddy Peralta. And I would completely agree with the people who point out that the Brewers couldn't do this deal because it's not a net add for the rotation (losing Woodruff offsets the addition of Duffy).

I forgot when calculating the luxury tax values that MLB takes the average annual value of the contract. Braun's annual average is 1 million higher than Kemp's (21 million versus 20 million). So I'm assuming the Brewers would have to pay 4.5 million of Braun's contract in 2018 and 2019 just to even them out. Not sure if the proposed deal makes sense without any luxury tax benefit for Los Angeles. Milwaukee might likely have to throw in even more money and then get another fringe prospect or two back to make it work. I've known for awhile that Braun's contract is pretty horrible, but not being able to work out a suitable trade when it basically involves eating a 43 million dollar contract makes me think it's even worse than I had previously thought. How pitiful is that?

Welcome back my friends to the thread that never ends. Oddly enough, after thinking there would never be a decent trade match for Braun, all of a sudden there possibly is one. And with the Dodgers no less. Bellinger now appears to be an everyday first baseman with Gonzalez out of the picture. The Dodgers could stick Verdugo in the starting lineup but he only OPS'ed .544 in a brief major league appearance last year so I'm guessing the Dodgers won't hand him an everday outfield spot. Chris Taylor did a great job for them last year but considering his history (.598 OPS heading into 2017) it's probably unlikely the Dodgers hand him the left field spot. Andrew Toles is coming off a knee injury. Left field appears to be open. And the Dodgers have the one, big stinky high-salaried WAR black hole that can offset Braun's negative surplus value. Matt Kemp. Sticky point from the Brewer's end is that the Dodgers agreed to pay 3.5 million of Kemp's salary in 2018 and 2019 when they traded him in 2014. For a swap to make sense from the Dodger's luxury tax persepective, the Brewers would likely have to pay 3.5 million of Braun's salary in 2018 and 2019. Taking the average WAR value between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, Kemp was a negative WAR player in 2017 and from 2015-2017. He is going to be paid 43 million in 2018 and 2019, then subtract out what the Dodgers are paying him and he carries an undisputed -36 million in surplus value. I'm not going to go through all the numbers, at worst Braun would probably run around a -32 surplus value which would be decreased to -25 million if the Brewers kick in 7 million. And that is at worst. More than likely to even up this trade the Dodgers would have to throw in about 15 million in prospect surplus value. I'd guess something like this: Dodgers get: OF-Ryan Braun 7 million (Brewers pay 3.5 million of Braun's salary in 2018 and 2019) Brewers get: OF-Matt Kemp (Dodgers already on the hook for 3.5 million of Kemp's salary in 2018 and 2019) OF-DJ Peters (Dodgers #8 prospect according to Baseball America) RHP-Dustin May Why it makes sense for the Brewers: -They get two prospects out of the deal. -Kemp is only under contract for 2 more years but Braun is under contract for 3 more years. While the Brewers pay slightly more in 2018 and 2019, they are clear of Braun's 16 million dollar salary in 2020 and the 4 million dollar buyout in 2021. Why it doesn't make sense for the Brewers: -Matt Kemp figures to be a bad ballplayer in 2018 and 2019. -The owner needs to be convinced that paying Braun 3.5 million in 2018 and 2019 when playing for a different team is a good idea. Why it makes sense for the Dodgers: -They replace a negative WAR player with one who should be a positive WAR player, and if he stays healthy would be a pretty good bet to be a +2.0 WAR player or better. -It's not a massive savings, but they would knock down the luxury tax number by 2.5 million 2018 and 3.5 million in 2019. -They make the improvements without surrendering any of their top tier minor league talent. Why it doesn't make sense for the Dodgers: -The 2020 season when they would owe Braun 16 million. -They would likely then be forever stuck with Braun. Obviously he would no longer be a 10/5 rights player but would think it obvious that Braun would demand full no-trade protection going forward if he were to approve this trade. Not sure how I feel about this. On one hand it would be great to be free and clear of all these big salaries in 2020 which could actually be a pretty big deal considering how much many of the arbitration eligible players will be making during that season. On the other hand, having a 21.5 million dollar player riding the bench in a small market is a fairly sickening thought. But I do think it would be a fair deal that makes sense for both sides.

Is this an upgrade from Matt Garza strictly in terms of performance?

This sucks. I was hoping the Brewers could trade for Ryu but with McCarthy and Kazmir gone the Dodgers can likely fit him into their rotation (Kershaw, Hill, Maeda, Wood, Ryu) and have Buehler and Stewart as the insurance policies. Hopefully the Dodgers will turn around now and sign Darvish, which could push Ryu back out of the rotation.

I wouldn't mind seeing them add Albers. He pitched to an absolute ridiculous BABIP of .203 last year which is definitely not sustainable but historically he's had lower BABIP against him. Ground-ball pitcher that gets a lot of weak contact against him. Known for inducing double play balls to get out of jams. I'm guessing 2016 may have just been a case of bad luck. BABIP was .326 which is very high for him, ground ball percent was 48.6% which is very low for him, HR/FB ratio was 16.4% which is very high for him...probably just had location issues that he's worked out. Looks like he changed his repertoire a bit, using his slider much more than he had in the past and has almost eliminated the change-up...appears pretty much to be a fastball/slider pitcher now. Would rather stay one year on him because he is heading into age 35 season.

Surprised by this move. When San Francisco picked up the option they made some statements that sounded like they were genuinely committed to him and were pleased to have him back in their rotation. Now they are really thin with starting pitching. Rotation is likely Bumgarner, Cueto, Samardzija, Blach (26 career starts, 4.43 ERA), Stratton (10 career starts, 3.67 ERA) with Tyler Beede and Joan Gregorio as the insurance options. Looks like any Brewer fan that was hoping the team could deal an outfielder for any of these guys can cross that off the list now. I agree that dumping Moore is 100% about making a run at J.D. Martinez. Can't see any other reason why they would make this move.

I hate this move. Just can't believe Cozart is all of a sudden a good MLB hitter after being terrible with the bat for so long. Pujols will soon be a black hole at DH, Kinsler is a declining offensive player, Simmons broke the .700 OPS barrier last year but most of the time is below that figure, Maldonado is not a good offensive player. I'm aware Upton is there...but this almost seems like pitching and defense and we'll just count on Trout being good for four runs every game all by himself. I like Cozart and think he has solid value, but that almost all comes from being a really good defensive shortstop. Playing him at third base and risking that he really is the .240/.291/.376/.667 hitter he was from his age 28 to age 30 seasons is a bit crazy IMO. Maybe he'll go out there and OPS .933 again next year, but I'll only believe it when I see it.

Not a fan of Hoover at all. His one effective pitch was the fastball and from 2015 to 2016 his velocity dropped from 94+ down to 92.7 and the fastball went from a plus pitch to a negative pitch. Since that time his MLB numbers are: 6.90 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 6.32 FIP, 68 ERA+. Granted, much better in 2017 (3.92 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 4.71 FIP), but still pretty bad. The scary thing is that I can see Stearns only being interested in someone like Jesse Chavez in a Tommy Milone type situation (minor league deal or split contract), but for some reason I could see him giving Hoover a major league deal (1 year, 3 million or something like that).

Walker is holding out for a 3rd year. Taking the Angels out of the equation helps. I've heard that Walker was insisting on a 4-year deal, but that was a couple days ago and he (and his agent) may already have backed it down to 3 years. They are still talking about very little demand in the second base market. If that's true it wouldn't be that shocking to see Walker have to settle for something like a 2-year, 17 million dollar deal and I'd be in at that price.

Kind of disappointed that nothing happened with the Brewers but Stearns may figure that Dylan Baker is his equivalent of a Rule 5 pick and doesn't want to tie up another 40-man spot with the Winter Meetings still going on.

To me Cole is similar to Gallardo in that he's been considered the "ace" on a small market team and therefore is perceived as being better than he really is. Not claiming that as any sort of fact, just the impression that I have of him. But on the other hand many pitchers fully mature at age 27 and have their peak years from 27-32. 2019 will be Cole's age 27 season and it wouldn't be surprising to see him have a breakthrough season. The guy has talent, no question about that.

For both Duffy and Merrifield, I'd guess that the Royals would be looking for something like 80-90 million in prospect surplus value. Since most of the top prospect lists have not been updated, it's hard to even get a real good estimate as to what most of the Brewer prospects would be worth. I'd make the following guesses on players that have been mentioned. Monte Harrison (#5 in Baseball America update so I'd guess he's just outside of the top 100) = 14.5 million Lucas Erceg (not top 100 anymore, probably rates as solid Organizational Top 10 Prospect) = 11.45 million Marcos Diplan (IMO a solid Role Player Prospect) = 5.72 million Trey Supak (Role Player Prospect) = 5.72 million Mauricio Dubon (probably falls between Organizational Top 10 Prospect and Role Player Prospect) = 8.6 million Corbin Burnes (should be a back of the top 100 pitcher) = 17.86 million Carlos Herrera (Fringe Prospect) = 2.29 million All 7 probably only gets the Brewers about 80% of the way there. I think the Brewers would have to start with Brinson and then add a couple more prospects after him. I firmly believe that Duffy will likely command way more than he is really worth.

I think they need to bring in four pitchers. Three need to be solid MLB options and the fourth can be the Jesse Chavez split contract. And I'm not talking about #2 starter types when talking about solid MLB options...I'm talking players who have been there, done that and have been around awhile and have proven they can get the job done at the MLB level. Guys like Jason Hammel are not excluded. Currently my favorite targets are Hyun-Jin Ryu as a starter and Kelvin Herrera and Brad Brach as relievers. All are only controlled for 1 more season and all should be relatively cheap in terms of having to surrender prospects.

I'm not that high on Cole. Scott Boras is his agent so the Brewers would have zero chance of signing him to an extension. Over the last two years he's had a 4.12 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.81 FIP, 103 ERA+. He's a solid, quality starting pitching but not near top of the rotation quality and I'm guessing his price-tag would far exceed the two years of production the Brewers would get out of him. The Pirates would probably value him as a 3.7 WAR player and would be looking for 55 million in surplus value in exchange for Cole. Prospect return would likely exclude Brinson but include at least 2 back-end top 100 prospects. Maybe something like Cole for Luis Ortiz, Isan Diaz, Freddy Peralta and Jake Gatewood.

The more I look at Merrifield and the more I am convinced the price-tag on him should be sky high. Still under control for five years. I really don't understand the Royals motivation for trading him unless they really think that he has been a huge over-achiever so far and his success won't last. But this isn't like a Broxton situation where he looked pretty good for less than a half season. Merrifield is just under 1000 plate appearance and has put up pretty solid offensive numbers for a second baseman. Only thing I really don't like is the lower OBP and that is likely a result of an extremely poor walk rate (4.6% BB). But he looks like a legitimate hitter. .288 batting average and that is with a BABIP of .308 which is right around league average. Maybe the Royals see the power surge as being the fluke number but the HR/FB ratio indicates the 19 home runs are legitimate. Moving forward I would expect the floor for this player to be something like .270/.310/.440/.750 which isn't bad for a second baseman that provides above average defense with the added ability to play all the corner spots. On the flip side, his ceiling could be something like .290/.325/.510/.835. I agree that Merrifield could be dangled as an attempt to unload Hammel's salary. The problem with that is Hammel's salary really isn't out of line for his production, so where it might discount Merrifield I would think that discount would be fairly minimal.

Almost have to wonder if Merrifield would be a 30 home run per year player if playing home games at Miller Park. Hit 19 last year and his HR/FB percentage was only 9.4% which is well below league average. I agree with Brew4U in that the OBP is a concern. But he's a middle infielder that certainly looks like he will be a 20+ home run per year hitter. He was a +5 DRS and +0.8 UZR/150 at second base so he's an above average fielder by the metrics. He also played 70 innings in right field, 43 innings in left field and had very brief appearances at 1B and 3B, so he is very versatile defensively. Really the OBP is about the only real concern and .324 definitely isn't horrible when one considers the Brewers had 3 players with 400 at-bats last year that didn't even break the .300 mark.

Yes, Magnifico had been with the Angels. The Brewers did not take a player in the first round of the AAA phase (round two still in progress), so it looks like they will not be active in the Rule 5 at all. So far between the major league and AAA phases 45 players have been selected and the Brewers haven't lost any players.

Damien Magnifico selected by the Pirates in the AAA phase.

Orioles just Rule 5'ed three pitchers (Nester Cortes, Pedro Araujo, Jose Mesa). I don't know if the Orioles are intending on taking all three into spring training or if those players will be moved elsewhere. But if they keep all three heading into spring training one would have to think they would have high hopes that one or two stick on the 25-man roster. Time for Stearns to give the Orioles a call and ask about some of their pitching. Bundy would have a big, big price-tag but he's young and already a solid MLB pitcher with the chance to get much better. The bad part about Brad Brach and Zach Britton is they are only controlled for one season. The good part is that should lower the prospect price in a trade. Personally, I wouldn't be big on Britton because of his ridiculous salary (projected 12.2 million). I would love it if the Brewers could land Brach.

Duffy and Merrifield will get all the mentions but I wouldn't be a bit surprised if Stearns also has interest in players like RHP-Joakim Soria, RHP-Kelvin Herrera, RHP-Jason Hammel, LHP-Scott Alexander.

That list is from a couple years ago. Organizational top 30 prospects that are eligible to be picked can be found here: https://www.mlb.com/news/2017-mlb-rule-5-draft-preview/c-263198194 IMO the most interesting player there is infielder Travis Demeritte (Braves). Through the first five picks and no Brewer players have been selected.

If the Orioles are selling, I'd be asking about Brad Brach and Dylan Bundy. Bundy would probably be pretty unlikely. Brach is only controlled for one more season, if they are open to dealing Machado it's hard to believe that Brach would be unavailable.

Only if the Marlins are willing to throw out 2016 when doing the complete evaluation of him. He should be valued like a 1.5 to 2.0 WAR player and if he is then I would be interested because that would be a fair price. But if the Marlins price him as a 3.0 WAR player, which wouldn't be ridiculous because Baseball Reference had him as a 4.3 WAR player in 2016, then he would be over-priced and I wouldn't be interested. If he's valued at something like 1.7 WAR per season then a fair deal would probably be something like Freddy Peralta + Trent Grisham + Zack Brown.