JosephC

Have to agree with this. Ozuna is kind of a scary guy because last year he posted a .376 OBP but in over 2000 MLB plate appearances prior to last year he had a really mediocre .317 OBP. If last year was the first year of a new Ozuna then this will be a great deal for St. Louis. But if the real Ozuna is a .270/.320/.450/.770 slash player then he really isn't that special offensively. Defensive metrics have him as a plus corner outfielder but below average in centerfield.

And just like that both of my preferred relievers, Swarzak and Tommy Hunter, are both off the market. Hunter got more money than anticipated and more than I would have paid, but I think Swarzak would have been a solid addition at the 2 year, 14 million dollar price-tag (of course, he may have still rejected that offer from the Brewers to play in New York instead). Kind of like Kelvin Herrera as a trade target now.

It's not really shocking that Stearns would be shopping Santana because it may simply be a sell high move. Santana is not a great defensive player and that really limits his ceiling as a true superstar type player. His strikeout rate is high and if the ridiculous BABIP (.363) comes back down to earth then he's solid corner outfield bat but not a standout. When I posted my trade suggestion earlier I hadn't realized that Baseball America had elevated Heliot Ramos to the Giants #1 prospect. Not so surprising considering he was a first round pick and really tore it up in rookie league ball. I'm more convinced that a Santana for Panik, Strickland, Beede, Ramos would be a great trade for Milwaukee. Hopefully the Giants would see Santana continuing to be a solid 3.5 WAR player and would offer up a package like that.

Any talk of Archer without including Brinson is a likely non-starter. cubsdie may not think his offer gets is done, but I think Brinson/Ortiz/Erceg is right about what Archer would command.

I'm all for trolling the bottom of the market but this is even lower than I want to go. Would have to think this is a split contract possibility?

He does have a comparable. Justin Verlander. In March 2013 he signed a 7 year, 180 million dollar contract and he was 30 years old at the time (Arrieta will be 31 when he signs this deal). Considering we are 5 years down the road, a 7 year, 200 million dollar contract would actually be less money in "present day MLB dollars" than the Verlander contract. Taking that 180 million and increasing by 7% each of five years would put it at 252+ million. See, Boras is actually offering Arrieta at a bargain 200 million. At least that's what he will be telling the interested owners. Must be because Arrieta is one year older than Verlander was.

I think this player has a future with the Brewers but I'd be hesitant to start the year off with him on the 25 man roster. Last year he missed about 3 weeks in late May/early June and then missed another 3 weeks in late July/early August. And when he was pitching, he was pitching 2 to 3 innings at a time but he was starting so normally he had anywhere from 3 to 5 days off between appearances. Even when he moved to the bullpen he'd have a minimum of 2 days off between appearances and normally it was 3+. IMO it's too risky to start him off in the Brewer's bullpen where he might be forced to throw on back to back days on a regular basis and could start piling up 12-15 appearances per month. I think it's better that he starts the year off in the minors as a reliever where they can do a better job of monitoring the workload. With the way the organization shapes up now he probably will end up a reliever (that doesn't mean I've counted him out as a starter), so they can start throwing him in shorter stints and have him throw back-to-back days and groom him for a bullpen role...but again it's much easier to monitor all of that in the minors. I view him as a 2018 insurance policy and am hoping I wouldn't have to put him on the 25 man roster until later in the year or until 2019.

The Boras angle is interesting. He points out how the Tigers went to the playoffs every year from 2011 to 2014 and during that run Verlander's yearly ERA went from 2.40, 2.64, 3.46 to 4.54 (yearly WHIP went from 0.92 to 1.06 to 1.32 to 1.40). That last season with the 4.54 ERA was his age 31 season. Boras attributed all of that decline to Verlander having to pitch in the playoffs so many consecutive years (he did have 76 2/3 post-season innings during those four years). Boras is saying Arrieta is in the exact same situation. He just finished his age 31 season. In the last three years he has pitched 52 2/3 post-season innings. The entire decline has to do with too many post-season innings and he will bounce back just as Verlander has. Over the last three years Arrieta is a 2.71 ERA, 1.04 WHIP pitcher and that's what you are getting if you buy his services. I'm not buying it but Boras only has to pull out the hot name right now which is Verlander and only convince one owner that this is what he is going to get if he invests in Arrieta.

My preferred targets were Anthony Swarzak and Tommy Hunter but so far the free agent guesses for relievers seem to have been about 20%-25% low (based on Neshek and Morrow). If relief pitchers keep going at these types of rates, Swarzak is probably in line for a 2 year, 17 million dollar deal and Hunter would be at something like 2 years, 14.5 million. I'd probably still go with Hunter at that rate but I don't know if Swarzak has the track record to justify that type of deal when talking about a small-market team. I'm starting to think my primary targets now would be Tommy Hunter and Kelvin Herrera (trade). I also really like the Hector Rondon suggestion but would prefer to only be at one year on him.

Villar is arbitration eligible and the estimate on him is that he will earn 3 million in 2018.

I hope not on Lowrie. Had a very impressive .360 OBP in 2017 but only a .317 OBP from 2014-2016. Lifetime .332. If he repeats the .360 he would be an all-out steal but I have my doubts. Time to circle back around Neil Walker. As expected there doesn't seem to be much of a second base market and there was just a report that the Mets are not interested in bringing him back. There has been some talk regarding the Angels but they seem to prefer swinging a deal for Kinsler and some talk of the Pirates but it looks like they are stretched pretty thin in terms of payroll. I figured a minimum of 2 years, 20 million but now it may be a bit questionable if he'll get that. He would almost have to be "attractive target #1" if the price drops down into the 2 year, 16-17 million dollar range and right now I don't think that's too far-fetched. Will only be entering age 32 season next year and from 2015-2017 has slashed .272/.344/.446/.790.

I have major doubts regarding the future of Harvey but it might not be a bad option for Stearns. It's pretty likely the Brewers will have to gamble to fill one rotation spot in the current market and, depending on the price, Harvey might not be that bad of a gamble. Terrible in 2017, but in 2015-2016 he had a 3.41 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 4.26 K/BB ratio and 113 ERA+. Doubt if he could get back to that but if the investment was right Stearns might be happy to get a low to mid 4's ERA out of him which would be pretty good. If he has health issues again, hopefully he could at least get through the first half of the year and then maybe Burnes might be ready.

Interesting comparisons to Broxton. Broxton completed his age 27 season. After Stubbs completed his age 27 season he posted a .245/.314/.401/.715 slash line and averaged 233 plate appearances from 2013-2017. After Chris Young completed his age 27 season he posted a .233/.311/.419/.729 slash line and averaged 327 plate appearances from 2012-2017.

The Rays have 6 outfielders on their 40 man roster but one is Jake Bauers who has played mostly 1B and is transitioning to the OF and another is Justin Williams who is a AA player that is not MLB ready. Their first baseman from last year, Logan Morrison, is a free agent so there is a good chance Bauers goes back to 1B. Dickerson was by far-and-away the team leader in at-bats from the DH position last year. If one assumes that Bauers ends up at first base and Morrison once again has to fill the DH spot then they only Kiermaier, Souza and Mallix Smith as MLB outfielders. There may not be a huge need for an everyday starter for them but they do need to add another outfielder to the mix and adding someone like Broxton gives them the option for using Dickerson as the DH again if that's how their roster shakes out in April. I'd definitely do a straight up trade of Broxton for Odorizzi. All the numbers scream that Odorizzi is a pitcher to stay away from, but on the flip side Broxton has plenty of numbers himself which indicate he might end up going over the cliff in 2018 (and his offensive performance in 2017 wasn't exactly a thing of beauty to begin with).

Over the last three years Morrow has 92 2/3 major league innings and 77 minor league innings. He's been excellent over that timeframe but 10+ million guaranteed for a reliever that has averaged just over 30 major league innings over the last four seasons is a questionable contract IMO. If Swarzak, Hunter and Neshek command deals like this I guess I'm not that interested in the reliever market this off-season.

Panik won't be super expensive because the arbitration process still put huge value on HR, RBI, etc and Panik is never going to be a standout in those type of statistical categories. He is projected to earn 3.5 million in 2018 which wouldn't stress Milwaukee's payroll one bit. And Broxton probably only plays at the near minimum salary for one more season. I'd say chances are 80%+ that he'll be a super two player, so as of now I'm assuming his first arbitration year will be 2019.

It's hard to think that Broxton has any significant trade value. He was about a 0.5 WAR player last year and the projections listed on Fangraphs has him as a 0.1 WAR player in 2018. How could an opposing team give up anything of real value for him? He had a .299 OBP last year and that's with a BABIP of .323 and a ridiculous HR/FB ratio of 24.4%. It's not hard to see a scenario where Broxton struggles to hit .200 next year and OPS's about .650. Considering the strength of the Brewers minor league system, I'm not really interested in moving MLB pieces for fringe prospects at this time. If that's all San Francisco is willing to offer, I'd be content to keep Broxton and if the projections are accurate he'd still be a versatile fifth outfielder. If I were Stearns I would ask for Tyler Beede and Hunter Strickland and obviously expect to get laughed at. But since the Giants have committed to Matt Moore their rotation appears to be full so they might make Beede available. If they would be willing to include Beede then I would definitely be interested. Probably would push hard for Beede and LHP-Andrew Suarez, but that might removed too many of their starting pitching insurance plans.

I like Santana and see him continuing what he did in 2017. But he's always had a pretty high strikeout rate and the questionable defense will drag down the overall value he brings to a club. It's possible he hit his peak value last year. Projection sites listed at Fangraphs are only forecasting Santana to be a 1.7 WAR player in 2018 with a .257/.352/.470/.822 (28 HR) slash line. Normally I think a slash line like that would represent higher value, but again the bad defense will likely drag down his overall value. Last year he was a 3.4 WAR player, and if the Brewers can get that type of return for him I would definitely consider trading him. I'm not going to type out all the math but if Santana is a 3.4 WAR player over each of the next four seasons his overall value would be 140.96 million dollars and I would estimate he'll earn 31.4 million dollars, so he would have a surplus value of approximately 109.56 million assuming he keeps performing at his 2017 level. When the Stanton to the Giants rumors were flying I went back through the last few Baseball America Prospect Handbooks and read about some of the involved prospects again. Tyler Beede is a pitcher that has posted some mediocre numbers but is a player that should not be ignored. The Giants have constantly been re-working his delivery and repertoire, and he finally may be to the point where he will put it all together. Joe Panik has been an average 2.3 WAR player over the last three seasons and if he maintains that over the next three seasons his overall value is 67.74 million. I'd estimate his earnings to be 16.9 million over that timeframe so I have him as having 50.84 million in surplus value. Hunter Strickland has been an average 1.1 WAR player over the last three seasons and if he maintains that over the next four seasons his overall value would be 44.94 million. I'd estimate his earnings to be 17.1 million over that timeframe (he's a super two) so I have him as having 27.84 million in surplus value. I've already talked about Tyler Beede. He's a former top 100 that I would slot between top 100 and "top 10 organizational prospect" value which would put his surplus value at 13.74 million. Heliot Ramos is solid "top 10 organizational prospect" material which would put his surplus value at 11.45 million. Santana (valued at 3.4 WAR over the next four seasons) = 109.56 million Panik (50.84 million) + Strickland (27.84 million) + Beede (13.74 million) + Ramos (11.45 million) = 103.87 million I'd do that deal and it's a fair deal if the Giants believe Santana will keep on doing what he has been doing. Note that even if Santana is devalued because the Giant's don't necessarily believe the 3.4 WAR is sustainable, much of Joe Panik's 3 year value came from his 2015 season where he was a 3.7 WAR value. In 2016-2017 the average WAR was only 1.6 and the lower number could very well be a better projection for Panik moving forward. So when doing the math above, I used the high estimates for both sides. I would have a hard time turning down a package like this if the Giants were to agree to it. Losing four years of Santana would definitely hurt and be a setback. But if Beede turns into just a number 3 starter then this deal could be a clear win for the Brewers. No Santana for four years, but they should get 3 years of solid second base play that fits at the top of a lineup, 4 years of a quality bullpen piece, possibly 6 years of a mid-rotation starter and a first round high upside outfielder.

I think the Brewers will likely have to take a flier on a starter and am happy that wasn't Fiers. Last two seasons: Fiers = 4.84 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 4.91 FIP, 81 ERA+ Garza = 4.74 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 4.64 FIP, 91 ERA+

I remember looking at that 3 years, 20 million dollar guess by MLBTradeRumors and just scratching my head over that one. I'm certainly no expert but it was pretty obvious that number was ridiculously low.

Even when factoring in a bad offensive season in 2016, Gordon has still slashed .309/.340/.384/.724 over the last three seasons and is a very good option to sit at the top of the order. Add in that he's a plus defender at a middle infield spot. I'm surprised that people are surprised that Gordon fetched as much as he did. The Mariners actually got themselves a pretty good bargain, taking advantage of the Marlins wanting to dump payroll plus a market where second basemen aren't very high in demand. Only reason I didn't want the Brewers to get Gordon was because I didn't want them to make a 3 year commitment to a veteran second basemen because the Brewers already have a few solid candidates in the pipeline.

On November 8, USA Today reported the Brewers had 765k in bonus pool money remaining. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/11/08/texas-can-pay-most-for-otani-followed-by-yankees-and-twins/107466070/

The "market" really doesn't start for Duffy until Lynn and perhaps Cobb have signed. For starter needy teams that lose out on those pitchers (and I would expect there would be at least a half dozen), Duffy looks to be one of the better starters out there that could potentially be acquired.

Still not buying that Sogard has figured it out as a hitter and that a near 2017 performance is the new normal for him. In 1331 plate appearances for the A's Sogard was a .239/.295/.313/.609 hitter and his best single season OBP was .322. I bet he's much closer to that in 2018.

If Panik goes to the Marlins in the Stanton deal, then it might not be a bad idea for Stearns to give the Marlins a call to see if they would flip Panik to Milwaukee. Obviously the Marlins would rather trade Gordon, but the Brewers have second base candidates that are close to being ready, and there is no rule that states the Marlins can't trade both Panik and Gordon. Panik has been a bit up and down with the seasonal OBP, but lifetime is at .345 and IMO would be a pretty decent fit. Biggest concern is that he was a negative in both DRS and UZR/150 in 2017, although he was a positive in both in the 2015 and 2016 seasons.