JosephC

What I think would be realistic returns would be if a deal were to be made. Note that I have amended the Mets trade since it sounds like McNeil was unavailable in another trade. Yankees get - Josh Hader Brewers get - 3B-Miguel Andujar, RHP-Tommy Kahnle, RHP-Clarke Schmidt, another fringe prospect Dodgers get - Josh Hader Brewers get - C-Keibert Ruiz, RHP-Tony Gonsolin, 1B-Edwin Rios, another fringe prospect Mets get - Josh Hader Brewers get - RHP-Edwin Diaz, LHP-Justin Wilson, 3B-Brett Bady, C-Francisco Alvarez, OF-Adrian Hernandez Phillies get - Josh Hader Brewers get - LHP-Ranger Suarez, RHP-Spencer Howard, SS-Bryson Stott Diamondbacks get - Josh Hader Brewers get - LHP-Robbie Ray, LHP-Andrew Chaflin, OF-Kristian Robinson

Biggest problem with this deal is the Brewers can only play one guy at first base at a time. I wouldn't hesitate at all in picking up a guy like Madrigal. The guy can flat out hit and figures to be a plus-plus second baseman. Looks like 1B can be open for the Brewers in 2021 so Hiura can grab that first base glove next off-season. I don't think Zach Collins will catch at the MLB level. Sounds like his bat could be for real as the White Sox may DH him if they don't sign Encarnacion. But if we are talking about an NL team, Collins probably has to play first base. For those who say that Stearns is going with the worst defensive catcher in baseball in 2020 so bad defense from Collins really shouldn't matter...obviously that's something I cannot argue with. And then there is Sheets....so of the five pieces....Hiura is probably forced to move to first in 2021, Collins is a first baseman and Sheets is a first baseman....so IMO these combined pieces don't make sense for Milwaukee. I have the five players total combining for 66-67 million in prospect surplus value (Madrigal accounts for over 70% of that), that would be excellent value for the Brewers if they could get that type of return.

Anderson does not have a higher floor than Ryu. He has the same injury concerns. I think Anderson has a better track record. Most importantly, the Brewers are on the hook for three fewer years and $75 million less if this goes bad. I totally agree with the money aspect. But Anderson has a better track record? You must be joking. In the last three years there have been 115 pitchers that have thrown at least 300 MLB innings. Of those 115 pitchers, Ryu ranks 4th in ERA, 23rd in FIP and 19 in xFIP. Just randomly selecting xFIP, Ryu's ranking puts him in the same group as Syndergaard and Greinke. Anderson ranks 85th in ERA, 67th in FIP and 79th in xFIP. Again, just taking xFIP, Anderson is in the same group as Junis and Roark. There is nothing that indicates that Anderson has a better "track record" than Ryu. Even with Ryu's extremely worrisome medical history, he has averaged 131 innings per season over the last three years where Anderson has only averaged 109. If Ryu had pitched 480+ innings over the last three seasons, I think it's completely safe to say that his new contract would have killed what Wheeler got....and while he wouldn't have gotten what Strasburg got, his deal would have been a lot closer to the Strasburg deal than the Wheeler deal. I think this deal will blow up in Toronto's face, but on the flip side, if Ryu manages to put together 640+ innings over the next four years then the deal will probably be a bargain for Toronto. The guy is a top notch pitcher and, for whatever reason, I think he continues to perform at a high level if he can stay on the mound.

I was surprised to see how dreadful Moran was defensively at 3B last year. He had the second worst UZR (-8.8) at that position ahead of only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He rated worse defensively than Miguel Sano, Justin Turner, and Hunter Dozier. I actually had been kicking around the Moran concept a few weeks ago when doing an "offseason plan" scenario. He is a terrible defensive player. The power aspect of his game has also been a major disappointment, although his home park really doesn't help him. The things that make him interesting is that he is only 27 years old, hasn't been a bad offensive player (.277/.331/.419/.749 over the last two years) and Pittsburgh could very well be looking to move him for next to nothing as Ke'Bryan Hayes will probably be the Pirates starting third baseman in early June (likely would be earlier except for Super Two). If the Brewers were able to get him for a couple fringe prospects, I wouldn't be complaining. Possible late bloomer that would be worth making a very minor investment in IMO.

Buchter is still out of work because he's a lefty specialist. I really wish Stearns would have went with Buchter instead of bringing back Claudio. Dyson will miss next season, capsule repair surgery in right shoulder. Brandon Kintzler had a terrible finish as a Brewer but I wouldn't rule him out. 54.7% ground ball rate last year and a solid 2.68 ERA and 3.56 FIP.

Anderson does not have a higher floor than Ryu. He has the same injury concerns.

If Graterol's shoulder checks out as good, I would do a Hader for Arraez + Graterol + Balazovic trade.

Ryu was probably as healthy as he'll ever be over the last three seasons, and he still only made an average of 23 starts over those seasons (so he's missing approximately 30% of his starts). No question the guy is an elite guy when healthy, but he's hurt just way too much. IMO, going four years on this guy is a bad decision by Toronto.

OK, now this is just weird.

I like Keuchel but 3/55 (and potentially more) is a pretty high number. I would have loved to see him in a Brewer uniform at 3/42, but 3/55 is higher than I would have been willing to go. Pretty much sucks that free agent spending takes a big jump up in the same off-season that Attanasio has apparently decided to cut payroll. It looks like Ryu is the last of the Class A/Class B/Class C free agent pitchers out there, and while the guy is a plus-plus guy when healthy, he's not healthy often enough where I'd want to throw big money at him either.

I think the Trade Value's number on Merrifield is way too low. I see where they get the number from but I don't agree with it at all. If some back-calculating is done, their math basically has Merrifield as being about a 7.2 WAR total player over the next four years, and I just think that number is too low based on his history. Steamer put his 2020 WAR at 2.0 which just doesn't seem reasonable. This guy has been, on average, a 4.05 bWAR/fWAR player over the last three seasons. OK, Steamer is more in line with fWAR. In that case, Merrifield has been, on average, a 3.6 fWAR player over the last three seasons. His worst WAR number over the last three seasons is his 2017 fWAR which was 2.8...so we'll start by taking the worst number (from 2017 no less) and subtract 0.8 from that for a guy who will be entering his age 31 season? I'm not buying it. I'd bet the vast majority of MLB front offices would assign Merrifield a higher number. I think the 2020 estimate should start at 3.5 WAR and then drop 0.5 WAR per season after that. If so, his surplus value is +76.35. But on the bottom end, if I'm the Royals, I think the lowest estimate I would put on him would be to start at 3 WAR in 2020 and then drop him 0.5 WAR per season. That would put him at 9 WAR total over the next four seasons and that would put his surplus value at +58.35. If I'm the Royals, I wouldn't consider any return package with a surplus value of less than 58 million for Merrifield.

I think the Trade Value's number on Merrifield is way too low. I see where they get the number from but I don't agree with it at all. If some back-calculating is done, their math basically has Merrifield as being about a 7.2 WAR total player over the next four years, and I just think that number is too low based on his history. Steamer put his 2020 WAR at 2.0 which just doesn't seem reasonable. This guy has been, on average, a 4.05 bWAR/fWAR player over the last three seasons. OK, Steamer is more in line with fWAR. In that case, Merrifield has been, on average, a 3.6 fWAR player over the last three seasons. His worst WAR number over the last three seasons is his 2017 fWAR which was 2.8...so we'll start by taking the worst number (from 2017 no less) and subtract 0.8 from that for a guy who will be entering his age 31 season? I'm not buying it. I'd bet the vast majority of MLB front offices would assign Merrifield a higher number. I think the 2020 estimate should start at 3.5 WAR and then drop 0.5 WAR per season after that. If so, his surplus value is +76.35. But on the bottom end, if I'm the Royals, I think the lowest estimate I would put on him would be to start at 3 WAR in 2020 and then drop him 0.5 WAR per season. That would put him at 9 WAR total over the next four seasons and that would put his surplus value at +58.35. If I'm the Royals, I wouldn't consider any return package with a surplus value of less than 58 million for Merrifield.

I have Clevinger's surplus value at 81.3 million. The Baseball Trade Value site has a very slightly higher number, but for all practical purposes we both have the same number on Clevinger. I have the top six prospects in the Brewer's system being Turang, Small, Lutz, Ray, Ashby and Feliciano. I'd have the combined prospect surplus value for those six players being 60.6 million.

I have Clevinger's surplus value at 81.3 million. The Baseball Trade Value site has a very slightly higher number, but for all practical purposes we both have the same number on Clevinger. I have the top six prospects in the Brewer's system being Turang, Small, Lutz, Ray, Ashby and Feliciano. I'd have the combined prospect surplus value for those six players being 60.6 million.

Failed to the tune of a 20+ bWAR career with the Braves. You know how many pitchers have achieved that wearing a Brewer uniform? Hint, you can count them all on one hand, even if that hand is missing some fingers. I like Teheran as a reliable, mid-to-back-end-of-the-rotation guy and would have picked him over Anderson, even with the difference in salary. And this is the primary reason why. Teheran became a full time starter in 2013, and from 2013-2019 he's made 222 starts (32 starts per year) and has thrown 1334 innings (191 innings per year). Over that same time-frame, Anderson has made 108 starts (15 starts per year) and has thrown 591 1/3 innings (84 innings per season). The other thing is that people will knock Teheran on his peripherals, but the bottom line is run prevention and Teheran has posted a better ERA than FIP for SEVEN consecutive seasons. Over the last three seasons his ERA has been 4.09 and it dropped when going from 2017 to 2018 and then dropped again when going from 2018 to 2019. Looking at durability and run prevention, I think he's a really solid investment at 9 million. Chase Anderson 2016-19 | 3.83 ERA | 4.70 FIP Julio Teheran 2016-19 | 3.86 ERA | 4.53 FIP If the Brewers thought 8.5 million was too rich for perennial FIP beater Chase Anderson, I can see why they might think 9 million is too rich for Julio Teheran. Only thing that made Chase Anderson seem like a complete non-fit was Counsell wanting to pull him as soon as it got to the fourth inning. If not for that, I would rather have Chase Anderson rather than Brett Anderson on the roster. Really anxious to see how Counsell manages Brett Anderson. With the lowly strikeout rate, it will be interesting to see if Counsell shows any trust in Brett and ends up treating him the same way as Chase.

Failed to the tune of a 20+ bWAR career with the Braves. You know how many pitchers have achieved that wearing a Brewer uniform? Hint, you can count them all on one hand, even if that hand is missing some fingers. I like Teheran as a reliable, mid-to-back-end-of-the-rotation guy and would have picked him over Anderson, even with the difference in salary. And this is the primary reason why. Teheran became a full time starter in 2013, and from 2013-2019 he's made 222 starts (32 starts per year) and has thrown 1334 innings (191 innings per year). Over that same time-frame, Anderson has made 108 starts (15 starts per year) and has thrown 591 1/3 innings (84 innings per season). The other thing is that people will knock Teheran on his peripherals, but the bottom line is run prevention and Teheran has posted a better ERA than FIP for SEVEN consecutive seasons. Over the last three seasons his ERA has been 4.09 and it dropped when going from 2017 to 2018 and then dropped again when going from 2018 to 2019. Looking at durability and run prevention, I think he's a really solid investment at 9 million. Chase Anderson 2016-19 | 3.83 ERA | 4.70 FIP Julio Teheran 2016-19 | 3.86 ERA | 4.53 FIP If the Brewers thought 8.5 million was too rich for perennial FIP beater Chase Anderson, I can see why they might think 9 million is too rich for Julio Teheran. Only thing that made Chase Anderson seem like a complete non-fit was Counsell wanting to pull him as soon as it got to the fourth inning. If not for that, I would rather have Chase Anderson rather than Brett Anderson on the roster. Really anxious to see how Counsell manages Brett Anderson. With the lowly strikeout rate, it will be interesting to see if Counsell shows any trust in Brett and ends up treating him the same way as Chase.

In the last 10 years, Anderson has only hit the 100 innings pitched mark three times. So if history is any indication, there is probably less than a 50% chance that the Brewers will be paying out any incentives on this one.

In the last 10 years, Anderson has only hit the 100 innings pitched mark three times. So if history is any indication, there is probably less than a 50% chance that the Brewers will be paying out any incentives on this one.

I went through the roster and the Badgers are returning 16 scholarship defensive backs next year. Seniors = Collin Wilder (S), Caesar Williams (CB), Eric Burrell (S), Madison Cone (S) Juniors = Faion Hicks (CB), Rachad Wildgoose (CB), Deron Harrell (CB), Scott Nelson (S) Sophomores = Reggie Pearson (S), Alexander Smith (CB), Donte Burton (CB), Travian Blaylock (CB) Freshman = Dean Engram (CB), Titus Toler (S), Semar Melvin* (CB), James Williams (CB) * = Melvin has played in four games, will go to sophomore if he plays in the Rose Bowl They have a pretty good number of players here already. Generally teams don't wander too far over 16 when it comes to DB scholarships, so if there are no losses here then Lofy would make #17. However, I do expect plenty of players leaving (and maybe a couple of those DBs listed above). I have them at 73 returning scholarship players next year...and then subtract the two obvious losses in Taylor and Biadasz...that brings them down to 71. So 14 openings and they have 19 commitments....so expect at least another five "veterans" to be lost through early entry, transfer, retirement, injury, etc.

I went through the roster and the Badgers are returning 16 scholarship defensive backs next year. Seniors = Collin Wilder (S), Caesar Williams (CB), Eric Burrell (S), Madison Cone (S) Juniors = Faion Hicks (CB), Rachad Wildgoose (CB), Deron Harrell (CB), Scott Nelson (S) Sophomores = Reggie Pearson (S), Alexander Smith (CB), Donte Burton (CB), Travian Blaylock (CB) Freshman = Dean Engram (CB), Titus Toler (S), Semar Melvin* (CB), James Williams (CB) * = Melvin has played in four games, will go to sophomore if he plays in the Rose Bowl They have a pretty good number of players here already. Generally teams don't wander too far over 16 when it comes to DB scholarships, so if there are no losses here then Lofy would make #17. However, I do expect plenty of players leaving (and maybe a couple of those DBs listed above). I have them at 73 returning scholarship players next year...and then subtract the two obvious losses in Taylor and Biadasz...that brings them down to 71. So 14 openings and they have 19 commitments....so expect at least another five "veterans" to be lost through early entry, transfer, retirement, injury, etc.

Note the "crazy high" in the initial link. I really don't think Cleveland has any intention of trading Clevinger. I do think they would trade Lindor at the right price because they know he will be priced out of their market after two more seasons so they might want to move him and get max value now (Brewers looking at the same situation next off-season with Yelich). So other teams then speculate if they trade Lindor, will they go into rebuild and then be willing to trade Clevinger? So then everyone asks about Clevinger….just in case. But how likely is it that Cleveland is initiating trade talks regarding Clevinger? Not likely. Probably like in the "off-season plan" thread where I speculated that I would trade Yelich...if the other team were willing to give up a top 5 prospect in all of baseball + another top 50 prospect + another top 200 prospect + a lottery-pick or two of my choosing. A team would probably have to get pretty crazy to pry Clevinger away from Cleveland.

Failed to the tune of a 20+ bWAR career with the Braves. You know how many pitchers have achieved that wearing a Brewer uniform? Hint, you can count them all on one hand, even if that hand is missing some fingers. I like Teheran as a reliable, mid-to-back-end-of-the-rotation guy and would have picked him over Anderson, even with the difference in salary. And this is the primary reason why. Teheran became a full time starter in 2013, and from 2013-2019 he's made 222 starts (32 starts per year) and has thrown 1334 innings (191 innings per year). Over that same time-frame, Anderson has made 108 starts (15 starts per year) and has thrown 591 1/3 innings (84 innings per season). The other thing is that people will knock Teheran on his peripherals, but the bottom line is run prevention and Teheran has posted a better ERA than FIP for SEVEN consecutive seasons. Over the last three seasons his ERA has been 4.09 and it dropped when going from 2017 to 2018 and then dropped again when going from 2018 to 2019. Looking at durability and run prevention, I think he's a really solid investment at 9 million.

Sogard loves the juiced ball: 2010-2018 = 1743 plate appearances, 11 HR 2019 = 442 plate appearances, 13 HR

Arcia has been a negative WAR player each of the last two years and has no trade value. The Brewers would not get more than one fringe prospect for him. I firmly believe that he is in the Brewers plans for 2020, if he wasn't they just wouldn't have offered him arbitration like they did with so many other players.

Over the last three years Smoak has gone from a 3.55 bWAR/fWAR to a 2.0 bWAR/fWAR to a 0.4 bWAR/fWAR last year. Wrong direction.