JosephC

Pitch Info actually has him as throwing no four seam fastballs and the rare cutter. They classify all of his "fast balls" as sinkers, which makes him a classic sinker/slider/change pitcher that is out of fashion these days. Their breakdown has him as about 50% sinkers, 35-40% change up and 10-15% sliders. https://www.mlb.com/player/alex-claudio-592222 Scroll down and check out the zone chart. There is no secret as to what this guy does, keep the ball down, move it in-and-out and try to induce ground balls and keep the ball in the park. Occasionally go up and in on left-handed hitters to keep them honest. Nothing fancy. The one real concern with those chart is that they show he pretty much got beat-up when hitting the bottom of the strike zone last year. That could be due to bad luck with the BABIP, or really bad infield defense, or that MLB hitters are now just expecting everything down and are sitting on it and hammering him. I guess we'll find out about that soon enough.

I would have never made it a priority to try and bring back Miley this off-season, but under certain circumstances wouldn't have minded seeing him return. But the more I look at the numbers, the more I hope he moves on to a different organization. 2018 = 2.57 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.59 FIP, 159 ERA+ 2015-2017 = 5.10 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 4.46 FIP, 84 ERA+ The larger sample size is not favorable. Of course, it wasn't favorable going into last year either. So how much of Miley's 2018 was a reworking of his repertoire, a move to the NL, just dumb luck? Looking at some of the 2018 numbers beyond the basic line above. 4.30 xFIP...a real good indicator that any sub-3.50 ERA was a complete fluke. .269 BABIP, well below the league average and an indication that some luck may have been in play. 5.2% HR/FB ratio, a ridiculously low number that would be virtually impossible to repeat when pitching home games in Miller Park. K/BB ratio <2. How many starting pitchers have held a 2.57 ERA with a K/BB ratio under two in the last decade? I'm sure there are some out there, but that number has to be pretty low. Basically, everything about Miley's 2.57 ERA in 2018 screams fluke. I'd rather the Brewers just move on.

No surprise to see so many people projecting Richie Martin to be the first pick. Dodger prospect Drew Jackson is the only player out there that I would have real interest in if I was sitting in Stearns chair. There are the obvious questions surrounding if he will hit enough, but his arm, athleticism and defensive versatility make me think he could be a useful player if the Brewers suffer a couple injuries in spring training. Only thing that makes him a really hard fit is that he's a righty bat, and the Brewers need more lefty candidates (both at the plate and on the mound IMO).

Lynn had a horrible, horrible month of April and was much better after that. 4.13 ERA from the beginning of May forward. I've also seen some numbers which indicate he may have been a bit better than the 4.13 ERA indicates. For example, his ERA with the Yankees was 4.14, but his FIP was 2.17 and he had a K/BB ratio of 4.4 after the trade was made. I think the Rangers would have been better served to keep this at 2 years to protect themselves a bit, but maybe Lynn's representation had their heels dug on a 2 year, 25 million deal and the Rangers then figured the third year would only cost them 5 million more. I don't think this is an unreasonable deal considering the Rangers are a team that can operate at 150+ million per season, only have 2 other contracts on the books for over 10 million per season, and don't figure to have big arbitration spending in the next 2 or 3 years.

There is a note on MLBTradeRumors that the Dodgers have discussed LHP-Alex Wood in trade talks. The bad thing about Wood is that he is only under control for one more year. The good thing about Wood is that he is only under control for one more year which means he could actually be somewhat affordable. He has had some injury problems in the past but nothing serious during the last couple of years. Has only been in the 150 innings pitched range in each of the last two seasons, but the Dodgers have shuffled him back and forth between the rotation and the pen due to their excess of left handed starting pitching. Over the last three years: 121 inning pitched average, 3.29 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 122 ERA+, 3.39 FIP, 3.6 K/BB I'd guess the Dodgers shoot for 2.5 WAR value for 2019. Steamer only projects him for 0.7 WAR but also has only projected him for 56 innings pitched which really doesn't seem reasonable. If teams aren't interested only having one year of control and his injury history, I think Wood could be a solid pickup and perhaps at a price that would be less than anticipated. He is projected to make 9 million in his final year of arbitration, which may also steer small market/non-contenders away from him. If the price gets bid down to 2 WAR, then it just becomes a matter on who's role player and fringe prospects the Dodgers like best. Looking at the Dodgers pitching roster...Kershaw, Hill, Ryu, Ferguson, Alexander, Urias...with Cingrani and McCreery as insurance policies, they definitely could decided to just trade Wood now and take what they can get for him.

The Reds offense would be looking really good, but to me it looks like a stupid move considering where they are sitting in the standings. I don't think either the Cubs or Brewers would be all that intimidated by this, and the Cardinals have added Goldschmidt. The Reds can make an aggressive move like this but they are still likely no better than a 4th place team next year. Considering Realmuto is only controlled for two more years, it really doesn't make any sense for Cincinnati to make a move like this. If I'm the Reds, there is no way I would included any of the top four prospects (Senzel, Trammell, Greene, India) and that should easily disqualify them from contention for Realmuto.

Great news. Chalk one up for the taxpayer. Tampa politicians apparently much smarter than the ones in King County, Washington. At least for today. Time for MLB to start talking about expansion again.

Using Baseball Prospectus' defensive metrics for catcher. In 2018, Ramos rated 45th out of 117 catchers. In 2017, Ramos rated 91st out of 111 catchers. In 2016, Ramos rated 6th out of 104 catchers. In 2015, Ramos rated 15th out of 109 catchers. I'd expect Ramos to provide average defense in 2019.

If the Yankees are willing to give up Estevan Florial, I think this is a scenario that could work. Yankees get: RHP-Noah Syndergaard (from Mets) Mets get: C-JT Realmuto (from Marlins) RHP-Tommy Kahnle (from Yankees) Marlins get: OF-Estevan Florial (from Yankees) RHP-Domingo Acevedo (from Yankees) RHP-Clarke Schmidt (from Yankees) SS-Shervyen Newton (from Mets) Problem is, I could see the Yankees trying to substitute Clint Frazier for Florial and try to build the deal around him. And that's something the Marlins should definitely not go for.

I think Davies had established himself as having pretty good value at the end of 2017, but 2018 may have completely erased all of that. He's a small guy and teams will always worry about his durability and last year he only got to 66 innings. His average fWAR/bWAR last year was only 0.2 (was on the negative side in bWAR). If you included all the good with the bad, from 2016-2018 his numbers are a pretty unremarkable 4.06 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 4.12 FIP, 106 ERA+. I wouldn't be very interested in Davies if I were sitting in the Marlins GM chair. I'd probably say right up-front that Davies value would have to represent <25% of the value that I would need back in the package to trade Realmuto. Also would immediately point out that I'd have absolutely zero interest in adding Chase Anderson or Eric Thames. Then I'd state that without Hiura or Burnes being part of the deal, that I would be 99.99% confident that I could find a better offer elsewhere.

I have to agree. More and more I'm buying into what appears to be a Stearns philosophy to not make major investments in pitching.

Baines? Should take the "Today's Game Committee" no more than 10 years to completely water down the meaning of being a "Major League Baseball Hall of Famer."

This would actually be a good deal for the Dodgers IMO. Braun's average fWAR/bWAR over the last three seasons is 2.2. Subtract 0.5 WAR each season for a player of his age and he's a 1.7 WAR player in 2019 and a 1.2 WAR player in 2020. Now the obvious argument against this is that Braun was very good in 2016 and the big falloff happened after that, so really Braun's 2017-2018 numbers should be used. But Steamer is projecting him at a 1.7 WAR player in 2019 which matches my number, so that is what I'm going with. That makes Braun's value about 26.5 million and he makes 38 million so his surplus value is -11.5 million Kemp has been an average 0.5 WAR player over the last three years and then subtract the 0.5 WAR for his age and he is a replacement level player. Steamer put him at 0.2 WAR. He gets 21.5 million in 2019, I'd count all of it as negative value.

Profar is really hard to value because he was just awful with the bat before this last season. That said, he was a 2.5 fWAR/bWAR player in 2018. If I'm the Rangers, I wouldn't give the slightest consideration to moving him unless I was compensated for 3 WAR total over the next two years. That would put his value at just under 28 million and his surplus value would probably be somewhere around 19 million. Very much doubt that any team would want to go that high considering Profar was a bad hitter prior to last year. Putting him at 19 million would make a straight up swap of Profar and Corey Ray an even deal.

Just cranking the numbers, Bauer's trade value isn't as high as I would have expected. Average annual fWAR/bWAR over the last three seasons is 3.9. So that's 7.8 wins over 2 years. 7.8 X 9.25 = 72.15 million. He's projected to make 11.6 million in arbitration this year, and then let's say 15 million for next year. 72.15 - 26.6 = 45.55 million in surplus value. Obviously he would demand much more if the Indian's could get strictly his 2018 value back where he was a 6 WAR pitcher. But I don't think it would push that high on the market. I'm using 3.9 WAR for each of the next two years. Steamer projects him for 4.0 WAR in 2019. I think the majority of MLB teams would value him right around 8 WAR total for the next two years. Fair surplus value estimate in the 45-50 million range. I'd be impressed if the Indians got anything significantly over 60 million in surplus value. I think Hiura grades high enough where he prices himself out of this trade. Burnes is a reasonable starting point. I'd put Burnes' surplus value at around 33 million and Ray's surplus value at around 19 million. I would think that just those two would be a more than fair offer for Bauer.

With Taylor being added to the 25-man roster, I'd guess that means CF #1 is Cain and CF #2 is Yelich and if injury requires a move then Taylor is CF #3. Santana is probably still in the Brewers plan as the insurance policy if Braun continues to regress. Broxton seems like the odd man out. Only question is if the Brewers can trade Broxton for a low-level, lower grading prospect OR will they just end up losing him through waivers. Good chance the team carries 13 pitchers >50% of the time in 2019...keeping five outfielders will be near impossible which means keeping both Santana and Broxton will be near impossible. I still think Santana is a great fit for the Indians, but I think a deal would have happened long before now if the Indians had any interest in Santana. To me Santana has become a near obvious hold. Bottom line is that he's slashed .270/.355/.470/.826 over the last three years, and there is no reason to think he can't revert back to 2017 form since he will only be entering his age 26 season. I don't think he would return near what his trade value should be considering his bat/youth, so it makes sense to hold onto him. If the Brewers do only keep four outfielders, with one of them being the often injured Braun, Santana could end up playing a lot and be a pretty valuable member of the team.

Veteran grit.

Yes, the beauty of baseball. If runs drop because of guys not being able to hit the ball over shifts and out of the park, then line-drive hitters will push offensive numbers back up and they will become in vogue and the marginal power guys with sinking OBPs will go on the endangered list. The game will adjust back. It's been a "natural" process for 100+ years. Bean-counters need not mess with the rules. It's probably not an accident that Stearns last two first round picks have been hitters like Hiura and Turang. He very well could be ahead of the curve here.

Aguilar had stretches where he struggled with the bat in the second half, and Thames was flat out terrible. Even so, the last time Braun started a game at first base was on July 23. Braun posted a -19.0 UZR/150 in the 100+ innings he played at 1B.

I wouldn't be a fan of this move. Guy makes too many outs and his defensive metrics over the last two years are not very good. Only has a .299 OBP over the last three seasons (1700+ plate appearances). And if looking for a platoon partner for Shaw, Franco has only slashed .238/.296/.424/.720 against lefties from 2016-2018.

I have the Andrei Rublev, Solaris and Stalker in my collection. I'm not huge into Tarkovsky but respect what he does and his films always seem to be better on repeated watches. Stalker kind of freaked me out the first time I saw it because I kept thinking about how much it had to been influenced by Chernobyl, and then halfway through it popped into my mind that Chernobyl happened in the early 80s and this film was a 1979 release. Will be watching The Seventh Seal from the Bergman box tonight.

Packers new front office directory. Team President = Aaron Rodgers General Manager = Aaron Rodgers Head Coach = Aaron Rodgers Chief Executive Lapdog = Mark Murphy Personnel Lapdog = Brian Gutekunst Operations Lapdog = Russ Ball

It will be interesting to see what the Yankees get. Average fWAR/bWAR for Grey over the last three years is only 1.4. It was 1.15 if just looking at 2018. If one values him at 1.4 WAR for 2019 then 1.4 * 9 million = 12.6 million in value - 9 million he's projected to make = +3.6 million in surplus value. Numbers say he is only worth a couple fringe prospects.

This looks like another terrible deal for Seattle after running the numbers. It should be said that J.P. Crawford falls in that grey area, between 1 year and 2 years of service time, where it makes a surplus value estimate nearly impossible. Does one go by his former prospect ranking since his MLB sample size is so low? Or does one go by his MLB performance so far even though the sample size is so small? So, for now, let's just ignore J.P. Crawford. We'll get back to him later. Segura's average bWAR/fWAR over the last three seasons is 4.2. Let's ignore the option year but include the buyout on the option year. So he's under contract for 4 more seasons that includes his age 29, 30, 31 and 32 seasons. No reason to deviate from a 4.2 WAR average over the next three seasons, and then bump it down to 3.7 WAR for his age 32 season. Going with 1 WAR = 9 million and then increasing the 9 million by 3.4% annually over the next few seasons, it would make Segura's total value 154.2 million. He makes 57 million over the next four seasons, and add one more for the option buyout and he's guaranteed 58 million. 154.2 - 58 = 96.2 million in surplus value. Juan Nicasio has averaged 0.9 fWAR/bWAR over the last three seasons and is already 32 years old. Subtract 0.5 WAR from that for a 0.4 projected WAR in 2019. 0.4 * 9 = 3.6 million in value - 9 million salary = -5.4 million in surplus value. James Pazos surprisingly has only averaged 0.4 fWAR/bWAR over the last two seasons and is only 27 years old. His total value for four years at 0.4 WAR per season comes out to 15.2 million. I'd project he'll make 7.75 million over those four seasons, that would give him a surplus value of +7.45 million Carlos Santana has averaged 2.7 fWAR/bWAR over the last 3 seasons. The average fWAR/bWAR fell from 3.2 in 2017 to 1.8 in 2018. But just using the rule of thumb, he had a 2.7 WAR in 2018 so let's project 2.2 in 2019 and 1.7 in 2020. That would make his total value 35.6 million. He will make 35 million so it's nearly a wash. His surplus value is +0.6 million So minus Crawford, here is the breakdown of what teams get: Phillies get: Jean Segura = +96.2 million in surplus value James Pazos = +7.45 million in surplus value Juan Nicasio = -5.4 million in surplus value Total = +98.25 million in surplus value Mariners get: Carlos Santana = +0.6 million in surplus value Total = +0.6 million in surplus value The difference between the two is 97.65 million. So that is what J.P. Crawford would have to be worth to even out this deal. If one goes by the adjusted Point of Pittsburgh prospect surplus value chart that I will be using for 2019, the #1 hitter has a prospect surplus value of 94.0 million. Crawford is at 1 year, 20 days of service time. Average fWAR/bWAR so far is 0.8. Taking 0.8 x the 5 years he's still controlled would make him a 4 WAR player. 4 WAR x 9.65 million (let's say that will be the average WAR value over the next five seasons) = 38.6 million, and when subtracting out his salary would probably push is surplus value down to about 30 million. If one goes back to his pre-2018 prospect rankings on the top 100 list, the average between Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and MLB.com was #22. That would correspond to 68.7 million in prospect surplus value using the 2018 numbers...and one of those controlled seasons is gone. Anyway that Crawford is evaluated, there is just no way to get his value up to 97 million to make this look like an even trade. I'd guess that the best estimate might be to just take the average between the current numbers (0.8 WAR per season) and his pre-2018 value according to the chart. That would actually put his surplus value at 49.35 million. Phillies get: Jean Segura = +96.2 million in surplus value James Pazos = +7.45 million in surplus value Juan Nicasio = -5.4 million in surplus value Total = +98.25 million in surplus value Mariners get: J.P. Crawford = +49.35 million in surplus value Carlos Santana = +0.6 million in surplus value Total = +49.95 million in surplus value Note that even though I don't think there is any way one could reasonable get Crawford's value up to 97 million for the purpose of this exercise, it certainly wouldn't be impossible for him to achieve that. 97.65 in value / 9.65 million (roughly what one WAR will be worth over the next five seasons) = 10.1 WAR / 5 seasons = approximately 2 WAR per season. Then one has to figure that he'd probably make something like 11 million over that timeframe, that adds another 1+ WAR to the equation over those 5 years. Overall I think Crawford would have to average out to be a 2.3 WAR player over his five seasons to even this out. That isn't a crazy expectation as it's kind of in the same ballpark as what Starlin Castro has done over the last few years. But if Crawford busts, then the Mariners just gave Segura away, and his contract is actually pretty favorable to the organization considering he's still young and has been a 4+ WAR player over the last three seasons. Bottom line is that the current numbers indicate this is another awful trade for the Mariners.

Only two things I'm hoping for in the next head coach. #1 - Actually run some decent practices and develop a tougher approach. Just have read too many comments from various local writers stating things like, "well if you want to call what they do practice." I'm sure some of that has to do with the leagues limiting of pad use in practice. But over the last few years this team has looked more and more finesse and, quite frankly, soft. #2 - Put at least a little emphasis on special teams play. I like poking fun of Ron Zook as much as anyone. But how many special teams coordinators did the Packers go through under McCarthy? And for the most part over the last decade-plus, the special teams play has been sub-par.