JosephC

I definitely would not have made this trade. Santana slashed .278/.371/.505/.875 in 2017 and was a 3.1 fWAR/bWAR player. If he can return to that level of production is a complete unknown. But based on Gamel's track record, I just don't see him having near that type of production with the bat or with assessing his overall value. Santana just has way more offensive upside than Gamel. Can Gamel make that up with his defense? So far his best fWAR/bWAR season was in 2017 where he posted a 1.4. DRS obviously does not like Gamel's defense, although UZR/150 is more favorable (has him at 0, or an average defensive outfielder). While he's played 35 innings in centerfield, he has a -1 DRS there (not innings adjusted) but a horrible -29.7 UZR/150...so while he has appeared there...that doesn't mean he can actually play well there. As much as I love all the various statistics, I have to admit that I am "old-school" when it comes to defense. Try to stay strong at catcher/middle infield/centerfield...but at the corner spots the bat plays. For a team that struggled on offense for significant stretches of last year, the upside of Santana's bat was just too great to give up in a trade like this. The lack of options would be a complete non-factor for me. Keon Broxton has the ability to play centerfield, but the .296 OBP he posted over the last two year make him a bad fit for this offense and he'd be the odd man out for me. No problem with going with Cain/Yelich in centerfield and if emergency required, then I'd just call up Taylor and see what he could do. He got put on the 25 man roster for a reason and that reason seems to have more to do with his outfield defense and versatility than anything else. I think the Brewers were covered enough to keep Santana and hope for an offensive bounce-back, and just cut ties with Broxton. Ultimately I think Stearns motivation to add a left-handed bat really pushed him to make this deal. The team was weak in both left-handed bats and lefty pitching. I don't think it's any coincidence that the last three adds have been Claudio, Spangenberg and Gamel. Problem with this is that over the last three years, Santana has hit righty pitching far better than Gamel (Santana = .270/.352/.472/.824, Gamel = .271/.337/.388/.725). If this was the best deal the Brewers could get for Santana, for me it would be an easy hold situation with Domingo.

Bailey still had 28 million coming and it was reported that the Dodgers also sent Cincinnati 7 million in cash...so it freed up/gave the Reds 35 million dollars. Taking the arbitration estimates for Puig and Wood, the Kemp/Puig/Wood combo will earn 41.8 million in 2018. So the Reds picked up Puig/Wood/Kemp and dumped Bailey and that exchange only cost them 6.8 million. While Kemp will likely be worthless, I've projected Puig as a 2.2 WAR player and Wood as a 2.1 WAR player in 2019. So that would be 4+ WAR as a net cost of less than 7 million. I think Downs is a really interesting prospect and would have hated to have moved him in this deal, but it would have been impossible for me to turn down this deal based on the numbers above. I also think Gray is pretty interesting too, but as stated above, if the Reds are bad they should be able to deal either Wood or Puig at the deadline and get a similar graded prospect back.

Will be interesting to see if he does become the next Phil Nevin. Nevin was the first overall pick and was horrible until he got to his age 28 season. Had three good seasons and then was really mediocre again. Time will tell.

Kemp was a 1.35 fWAR/bWAR player last year, but in 2017 was a -1.0 fWAR/bWAR player and was only a 0.45 fWAR/bWAR player in 2016. Take his average WAR value from the previous 3 seasons and it calculates out to under 0.3 WAR per season. Project 0.5 WAR which is a rule of thumb for a player of his age and it would put him in negative territory. It will be interesting to see how he hits in Cincinnati. Wouldn't be that surprising to see him do something like .270/.330/.510/.840 which is obvious going to give him value. It just becomes a matter on how much his bottom-of-the-barrel defense subtracts from that number. But based on the WAR/surplus value method, I think the vast majority of clubs would put Kemp very deep into the negative value category. Steamer is projecting him at 0.2 WAR for 2019.

Oh man, he is Mat Gamel's brother. Hopefully he'll work out a bit better.

DRS hates Gamel so I guess we'll have to wait and see, apply the eye-ball test to see if Gamel is any better defensively. Seems like an average bat. But he does have one option left so might as well pencil in the Brewers for the World Series this year.

Yuck, don't see the Mariners having much to trade. Hopefully I'm wrong about that. After Braun gets hurt, this should allow Hernan Perez to play right field and bat 5th on an everyday basis.

I think the Reds won this one. Puig and Wood's positive value wipes out all of Kemp's negative value, and they are able to unload Bailey's even worse contract and get another 7 million kicked in the deal. Downs and Gray are both pretty decent looking prospects, but IMO this is a solid trade for the Reds. If the Reds crap out this year, I'd feel pretty good about them being able to flip Alex Wood for a Josiah Gray level prospect at the deadline. And there is a chance the same could be said about Puig too, depending on how his behavior is perceived at the deadline. I'd calculate surplus values as follows: Reds get: Matt Kemp = -21.5 million Alex Wood = +9.9 million (valued at 2.1 WAR in 2019) Yasiel Puig = +8.5 million (valued at 2.2 WAR in 2019) Kyle Farmer = +2.2 million (<1 year service time, valued as equivalent to fringe prospect) +7 million Total = +6.1 million Dodgers get: Homer Bailey = -28 million (23 million plus 5 million buyout for 2020) Jeter Downs = +11 million (top 10 organizational prospect) Josiah Gray = +5.5 million (role player prospect) Total = -11.5 million If the 7 million was headed the other way, then the numbers indicate it would be a pretty even deal.

I haven't heard the amount of the international bonus pool is heading from Tampa Bay to Texas. Really hard to judge this trade because what number does one put on Profar? He was basically a worthless player prior to 2018. But just glancing, the Rays appeared to have given up 3 fringe prospects and some of their international bonus pool, got one fringe prospect back, a comp A pick and a marginal MLB reliever. This seems like a pretty good move for them.

This is just a split contract so I doubt that the Brewers are looking at this is as a Perez/Spangenberg platoon at 2B. More likely just as an insurance move to protect themselves in case Perez suffers a major injury in spring training or early in the season. If the time comes and Spangenberg agrees to stay in the Brewer's system, he'd be a pretty nice piece to have in AAA. But if this is to set up a Perez/Spangenberg platoon then I dislike the move. Spangenberg is another guy who just too much trouble getting on base. If the Brewers start next season with: C = Pina/Kratz 2B = Perez/Spangenberg SS = Arcia Then they have set themselves up to be in the same boat as last year. Half the lineup doing nothing for the first two months, and then hoping a rookie hitter can come up and save the offense. I really doubt that Stearns is done with 2B/C. Always a chance he is done and takes the remaining available resources and dedicates it to pitching, but my guess is that he is still searching for better options here. I remember when Spangenberg was in the draft and there were rumors that the Brewers did like him (obviously that was back in the Melvin days). I thought he was a pretty interesting candidate, but he just isn't a very good major leaguer. Career slash line isn't that bad - .258/.318/.391/.709 - last year MLB 2B hit .254/.316/.396/.712. But Spangenberg was bad last year, only a .298 OBP and .661 OPS. If one looks at the three-year splits, he's actually been much better at home so the Petco factor doesn't seem to be in play at all. Defensive metrics have him as very average at 2B but bad everywhere else. That's appears to be a significant difference between Spangenberg and Perez. Perez can do a fine job if needed in the outfield, but the metrics makes Spangenberg look pretty much like a train wreck out there (-19.9 UZR/150 for all his outfield play, Perez is +6.9). Sometimes Steamer throws so real curve balls with their projections, but they have Spangenberg as a .245/.307/.383/.690 slash and a 0.3 WAR for 2019...and those numbers look to be pretty reasonable when looking back over the last three seasons.

https://sports.yahoo.com/ex-marlins-presidents-reaction-boos-miami-fans-1-2-billion-f-232058900.html

I'm not so sure that we'll be seeing Braun back at first base. Even though he was fairly healthy for the last two months, the game log at Baseball Reference indicates he didn't appear at first base a single time after July 23. Braun posted a -19.0 UZR/150 as a first baseman, and if the Brewers defensive metric mirrors that, then they might be pretty motivated to keep Braun out of the infield.

Brewers could very well have a big need for Thames left-handed bat once the season rolls around. Right now there are only 3 left-handed bats on the 40 man roster (not counting the pitchers).

All I can say is that it has to be pretty frustrating to be an Angels fan.

I would have preferred Ramos, but I'm all for jumping in on Grandal at this point. MLBTradeRumors had Ramos at 3 years, 36 million and he ended up with 2 years, 19.5 million (+ option). When I took a rough average of the MLBTradeRumors, Heyman and Heyman's experts, then the prediction was 2 years, 22 million. That's still a bit higher than what Ramos got, but proved to be a much better estimate. Here are the same three predictions on Grandal: MLBTradeRumors = 4 years, 64 million Heyman's expert = 3 years, 39 million Heyman = 2 years, 20 million The average of those three is 3 years, 39 million. That's really a pretty good price on Grandal, and since the Brewers don't have an obvious catcher-of-the-future candidate in the minors, I really don't see an issue making a 3 year commitment to a player like Grandal who just turned 30. Averaged 132 games over the last three years and slashed .239/.332/.467/.799 over that time-frame. The large sample size over the last three years indicate he is plus-plus defensively. I'm not sure I like him at 4 years, 64 million....but 4 years, 52 million or 3 years, 43.5 million are price-tags that seem pretty reasonable. If he could be had for 3 years, 39 million, then the Brewers should be very aggressive here IMO.

I'm really disappointed that the Brewers were unable to obtain Ramos, especially when it was confirmed that they had serious interest in him. I just don't feel confident with the combination of Pina/Kratz/Nottingham...especially the Kratz aspect of that. It's easy to say that Kratz is a good defensive catcher, so anything the team gets out of him is just a bonus. The same could be said about Arcia last year, but his bat was so bad they were almost forced to send him down. In the last 450 plate appearances before getting to Milwaukee, Kratz slashed .193/.236/.338/.574. It's just really hard to survive on a 25-man roster with that type of offensive production, even if the player is a plus-plus defender. I think the .634 OPS that Kratz posted in 2018 was somewhat of an aberration and we'll be very lucky if we see that type of offensive production out of him in 2019. I'm not in favor of a Realmuto deal because of the cost involved, but I think it's a priority for the Brewers to be aggressive and upgrade the catcher position. If they just roll with Pina/Kratz, Arcia at short and then hope that Hiura is an answer to the second base problem come June, then they run the risk of having the exact same problem as last year, when they played a good chunk of the season while getting poor offensive performance out of four spots in the lineup.

Seemed like a fairly ridiculous article to me. Eye-test doesn't indicate that Rodgers drop in completion percentage has anything to do with avoiding interceptions. Seems like Rodgers drop in completion percentage has more to do with way too many inaccurately thrown passes.

Ramos seems like he would be an ideal investment for Milwaukee at that price. Do have some concerns about that knee, but he looked healthy at the end of last year and a 2 year, 20 million dollar deal isn't that huge of an investment.

I wouldn't trade Stearns for another GM either, but Schoop, Feliz and 2018 Sogard are three examples I came up with in about 2 seconds that demonstrate that Stearns is not above reproach.

This guy makes Ryan Braun look like Cal Ripken Jr when it comes to durability.

Dbacks aren't doing that. Huge advantage for Crew. Huge. Dbacks have said Ray is not available. If traded, Ray would likely get about 90% of the return that Paxton got. None of those guys are top 100 caliber talents. Nottingham might crack certain top 200s, but they'll want an impact talent back. I'm not even sure if Corey Ray plus a few decent pieces gets it done. Sad thing is that if Ray is subtracted from the deal, I'd have the Diamondbacks surrendering about 12.5 million in value (hard to really put a number on the value of international bonus money) and the Brewers surrendering about 13.2 million in surplus value. Take Ray completely out of the trade, and then it might actually be pretty fair.

I'd do that deal in a second if I were the Padres. Barnes still has one option remaining.

I think he'll end up with the Mets in a deal that doesn't include major leaguers. The Mets are going for it and the MLB roster isn't deep enough to deal talent from there. Sounds like the Marlins want infielders, and the Mets have some pretty good candidates in the minors. Mets get: C-J.T. Realmuto Marlins get: SS - Andres Gimenez (~#43 hitter = ~47 million in surplus value) LHP - David Peterson (~#135 pitcher = ~14 million in surplus value) SS - Shervyen Netwon (role player prospect = ~5.5 million in surplus value) RHP - Rony Dibrell (fringe prospect = ~2 million in surplus value) Also some reports that the Marlins really like 3B-Mark Vientos...so another variation might be something like Gimenez + LHP-Anthony Kay + Vientos. To me the 4 prospect proposal above seems far and works for both sides a bit better than the three prospect deal. If the Mets believe Rosario will improve and have SS locked down for the next five years, then they are dealing from a strength with both Gimenez and Newton. Peterson might be the hardest pill to swallow for them because they will need pitching reinforcements in a couple years...but they are trading for Realmuto so one of the top pitching prospects will likely be necessary.

IMO no. I liked Martin (went #1), Jackson (went #13) and maybe would have taken a flyer on Romano (went #3). Those were the only three players I liked for Milwaukee and all were off the board. If the Brewers were a rebuilding team, I might have taken Michael Beltre (Reds outfielder)...but there is no way I would have carried him on a roster for a contender. Just too much of a project at this point. I'm kind of viewing Houser as the Brewers rule 5 pick. They will be forced to keep him on the roster, and I'm fine with just giving him at least 4 to 6 weeks on the 25-man because I like what I've seen of him. Hopefully he will perform and prove to be a legitimate major leaguer.

This is where JosephC and his analysis comes in handy... It's easy from the draft pick end. Those guys that get drafted with the comp A picks generally are not top 100 prospects but would fall in the "top 10 organizational prospect" group in an average ranked system. Value of the pick is 11 million in surplus value. Maybe would want to add a couple million of that because of the financial flexibility that is added by having that slot value available, so maybe it bumps that value up a couple million, but it would have to be right in that area. But the Claudio end is nearly impossible to figure. Average fWAR/bWAR from 2016-2018 is 1.3 WAR. However, it was 2.2 in 2017 but under 1 in each 2016 and 2018. Steamer only projects him at 0.3 WAR in 2019. What number do you give him? Add to that what I'll call the "Scooter" variable. I believe Gennett was running at something like a 0.6 to 0.8 WAR when the Brewers couldn't trade him and flat out released him. So value may not start at 0.1 and work up from there. It actually may start at something like 0.5 and work up from there. If you are talking about an elite, proven player like deGrom or Yelich and even down to players like Realmuto, those 3+ WAR per season players get value for their entire WAR numbers, but guys on the bottom end of the spectrum just don't. A 0.4 WAR player has mathematical value above replacement level, there is no question about it. But does a 0.4 WAR player have any value on the trade market? Gennett obviously did not. It's not really a dodge to the question, but rather to highlight the uncertainty in coming up with a good number for a middle reliever like Claudio. But just to give my opinion of it. If Claudio is a 3 WAR player (not 3 per season, but 3 total) for Milwaukee, then this is a clear win for the Brewers. If he's somewhere around 2.2-1.8 total over the three years, then it's likely a push. If he's already topped out and is only around 1 WAR over the next three years, then this will be a clear loss for the Brewers. It all depends on what projection you want to put on him. I think he hits the middle number, and I see it as a fairly even trade. I wouldn't have done it because I'd want the pick and the financial flexibility in having the slot figure available for the draft (which is an under-rated aspect IMO).