JosephC

Last year the comp balance A picks were: Gunnar Hoglund - Pirates - unsigned Cadyn Grenier - Orioles - #9 on MLB Pipeline (average farm system) Xavier Edwards - Padres - #18 on MLB Pipeline (probably the #1 rated farm system in baseball) Jake McCarthy - Diamondbacks - #8 on MLB Pipeline (poor farm system) Kris Bubic - Royals - #9 on MLB Pipeline (poor farm system) Previous year: Drew Rasmussen - Rays - unsigned Jeter Downs - Reds - was #12 at end of 2017 Kevin Merrell - A's - was #14 at end of 2017 Tristen Lutz - Brewers - was #6 at end of 2017 Brent Rooker - Twins - was #14 at end of 2017 Brian Miller - Marlins - was #14 at end of 2017 So I stand corrected SRB, average over the last two years has been #11.5. A bit lower than I anticipated. Probably would be most fair to value a competitive balance A pick as a top 300 - 400 pick as 11.5 times 30 teams equals 345. Even though that is only a sample size of 9 players, just looking back I think the list probably does do a pretty good job of evening out systems as there seemed to be a pretty decent representation of good systems, OK systems and bad systems.

Brewer equivalent would be higher than that IMO. Comp balance A picks almost always wind up in a teams top 10 prospects unless the team has a really loaded farm system. Long and Stevenson would be top 10 prospects in the majority of farm systems. Since there are 30 teams that puts all three of these assets as top 300 prospects. In that list of Brewers, only Dubon would qualify as a top 300 prospect and he'd be at the tail end of that, likely behind both Long and Stevenson (although the difference would not be all that significant). I'd say the Brewer equivalent is more like Lutz, Erceg and Dubon. If the Yankees get Long, Stevenson and a comp balance A pick, it truly is a hideous deal for the Reds. I see it as legitimate 30+ million in surplus value heading to New York. Gray would have to be a 3.5 WAR pitcher in 2019 to even out this swap, and Gray has been a 1.4 fWAR/bWAR pitcher on average over the last three years.

Seriously, outside of FIP, is Gray really any better than Chase Anderson? 2016-2018: Chase Anderson = 451 innings, 3.71 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 4.66 FIP, 114 ERA+, 2.52 K/BB Sonny Gray = 409 2/3 innings, 4.59 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 4.21 FIP, 93 ERA+, 2.37 K/BB I'd bet just about anything if Stearns would shop Anderson and say he wants two legitimate top 300 prospects plus a comp pick, the rest of the league would be figuratively laughing at him. And that is with Anderson having a far, far more favorable contract situation than Gray. But if it's the Yankees the rules are just completely different.

Sounds like the Reds are about to so something really stupid. Yet again New York can make a bad move only to have a small market team help them out by getting all stupid when dealing with the almighty Yankees.

No worries, and I'll apologize as I was being overly flippant in my response.

You are assuming that the Yankees (or Reds) care in the least about an arbitrary prospect ranking. I mean, it is easy to determine what every team's top prospects are, but once you get past the first 5 or so, each team is going to have its own ranking system, and I wouldn't doubt that its different than the mlb or any other prospect ranking list that is available to fans. Really?!?! I never would have guessed.

Nice to see the Yankees have been gracious enough to back off the Taylor Trammell ask. To ask for Stephenson or Long isn't a crazy, but it would still be an overpay IMO from the Reds standpoint. They should tell the Yankees to move about another 6 spots on the prospect list and then they will be in business.

I wouldn't think Kahnle would have much of any value because he was rotten last year and his fastball velocity dropped from 98.1 to 95.5. He also was battling shoulder tendinitis. But in 2016-2017 he had a 2.60 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 2.63 FIP and 12.1 K/9. Wouldn't be unreasonable for a team to think he'd be over the shoulder tendinitis, velocity will tick back up and his performance would improve. He is controlled for 3 more seasons, and since he was bad last year he will only make a pretty reasonable 1.39 million in 2019. I don't think trading 1 year of Bumgarner for 1 year of Gray and 3 years of Kahnle is that unreasonable. Gray and Bumgarner are both 29 years old. Last year Gray had a 4.17 FIP, Bumgarner had a 3.99 FIP. The Giants would also save 3.11 million in the swap. I'd put Bumgarner's surplus value at 15 million (assumes 3 WAR in 2019) and Gray's surplus value at 5.1 million (assumes 1.4 WAR in 2019). Kahnle's surplus value probably somewhere between 2 and 5 million based on what happened last year (let's say 3 million). So I'd say the Yankees would be getting about +7 million surplus dollars in the swap which is a definite "advantage" but it's not a crazy suggestion. If a team is high on Kahnle and thinks he will bounce back...he'd only have to be good for a total of 1.6 WAR over three seasons to even this out from a projection standpoint. Personally, I think if the Yankees threw in one more role-player prospect, then this deal would be a real even swap. Yankees get: LHP-Madison Bumgarner Giants get: RHP-Sonny Gray RHP-Tommy Kahnle RHP-Nick Nelson (#17 Yankee's prospect on MLB pipeline)

I'll predict: Padres get: RHP-Sonny Gray Yankees get: RHP-Reggie Lawson (currently #21 on Padre list at MLB Pipeline) LHP-Joey Cantillo OF-Jack Suwinski

Just say no to Wade Miley. In the three seasons before getting to Milwaukee, Miley posted a 5.10 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 4.46 FIP. So what are the chances that Miley "remade" himself in 2018 and the success he had last year is sustainable? His ERA was a sparkling 2.57 but the FIP was 3.59 and the xFIP was 4.30. His K/9 was a lousy 5.6 and the K/BB was under 2. BABIP number was far better than the league average (.269) and the HR/FB ratio was a remarkable 5.2%. Pretty much everything screams that a huge regression is in line. I wouldn't be a bit upset if the Brewers could get him at 1 year, 3 million (think the market would demand more), but no way should Milwaukee give him something like 8 million or a two year deal. The track record just isn't very good.

Looks like the A's messed up big time.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2018/10/30/moustakas-soria-decline-options-brewers-become-free-agents/1825578002/ I'm pretty sure Moustakas declined before the Brewers declined and he received the buyout.

A very cheap second baseman to bridge the first two months while the Brewers play the Super Two game with Hiura. I feel pretty good about the pitching and Grandal has solved the catcher problem.

I had posted the following in the free agent pitcher thread a few weeks ago and still think it applies. I wouldn't mind seeing the Brewers jump into this but would be surprised as I think the Grandal signing used up most of the remaining 2019 funds. And personally I would have went catcher instead of pitcher. I kind of like the way the pitching staff shapes up. ------------------------------------------------ Of all the top free agents this off-season, I thought Keuchel had the biggest probability of landing a contract that would be less than expected. For the record, I like the guy and think he's a good fit for Milwaukee because he's sits at or near the top of the ground-ball pitcher list. But how attractive will he be on the market? Last year his K/9 rate was 6.7. Pitch Info had his average fastball at 90.2 last season, which is actually a high number for him but certainly doesn't qualify as eye-popping. Bottom line, we are in an era where the strikeout is considered king. When considering that, Keuchel isn't all that attractive as a front-line pitcher. Over the last three years he has a 3.78 FIP and 106 ERA+. Not a thing wrong with those numbers, but it's certainly not Cy Young type peripherals and most big market GMs might see him as a #2- or #3+++ type starting pitcher. Last year his WHIP jumped to 1.31, the worst number he's had since 2013. It's been 3 years since he's won the Cy Young and in those three seasons: average 173 innings pitched, 3.77 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.78 WHIP, 106 ERA+, 2.7 BB/9, 7.3 K/9 Then there is the qualifying offer attached to him, making him a bit more unattractive. I think 4 years, 72 million could end up being a more likely figure for him. But I wouldn't be shocked if it ended up being a 3 year, 60 million type deal (19 million in 2019, 19 million in 2020, 18 million in 2021...team option in 2022, 20 million with a 4 million buyout).

People need to remember that Knebel was so dominant last year that he got sent to the minor leagues at the end up August. Hard for me to believe the Brewers could get an offer like the Mets one that was suggested above. Chapman and Miller are relievers that can pull in a big haul, but Knebel doesn't have near the track record of those two guys.

There is no surplus behind the plate because Kratz cannot hit. Getting Grandal fixed the catcher problem, Grandal + Pina makes catcher a complete non-concern. I see no good reason to trade Pina.

Someone should throw out a couple trade scenarios. Just interested to see how Knebel would be valued. 2016 was not a full MLB season for him, but he did have 50 1/3 major league innings in 2015, so is it fair to use the 2016 numbers to evaluate him? 2016: fWAR = 0.4 / bWAR = -0.2 2017: fWAR = 2.7 / bWAR = 3.7 2018: fWAR = 1.0 / bWAR = 0.3 Steamer projection for 2019 = 1.0 So there would be the Brewer side that would shoot for that top number...probably put a value on him of something like 2.5 WAR per season. On the other side, he's been an average 1.3 WAR pitcher over the last three years and is only projected at a 1.0 WAR player in 2019...which makes me believe that the vast majority of teams would consider top value for him in the 1.5 WAR per season range for the next three seasons.

Gary just signed a 1 year deal for 7.5 million, 1.5 million less than the arbitration projection. Surplus value just went up 1.5 million so throw another fringe prospect in there. Also a note on MLBTradeRumors that the Yankees are looking for multiple high level arms that "have a legitimate chance." So it appears they are now off the "premium" type demands. I have a feeling their ask from Milwaukee would come down from the absolutely ridiculous to something like Zack Brown plus Braden Webb one of Cody Ponce or Jon Olczak. That's still an overpay from Milwaukee's end but it wouldn't be a crazy ask for the Yankees.

I still really like Forsythe as a really cheap option to serve as a 2 month bridge to Keston. He was awful last year, but generally has been a pretty respectable OBP guy and can cover some innings at 3B if Shaw needs a day off against a tough lefty. Would love to know how much money Stearns has left to play with.

Add up the numbers to see how much money this totals and you will immediate recognize how questionable this is. 60k for a rookie league ballplayer who participates in something like 55 games during a rookie league season?

Believe it or not our Catchers were about average last year. If we have the flexibility to take on a 3/39 contract I would rather go with Jed Lowrie who can man 2B until Hiura is ready, platoon with Shaw at 3B, be a backup for Arcia if he sucks up all matter near him. He could also allow Shaw to slide over to 1B if Aguilar struggles. He has the versatility that we could almost use him as our zobrist... There's no guarantee Hiura will be ready this year or will be able to put up the same numbers as Lowrie could... I have no confidence in Kratz matching the career year he had in 2018. Next year will be his age 39 season. In the most recent 450 plate appearances Kratz had prior to 2018 (spanning 2013-2017), Kratz had a miserable .193/.236/.338/.574 slash line and 57 OPS+. Great defense can only take a player so far. The Brewers were likely more than happy with Arcia's defensive contributions last year and he still found his way to the minors because he couldn't hit. I think the chances are high that the same thing could happen with Kratz. Kratz broke into MLB as a 30 year old and totaled 649 plate appearances in his first 8 seasons. 81 plate appearances per year. The guy has proven to be a bottom of the barrel MLB player and even with a surprisingly good performance last year was only able to manage a .280 OBP, .634 OPS and 69 OPS+. Any slipping from there and he's good for about 80 plate appearances and the majority of the year in AAA IMO. I might be more open to Kratz like the Red Sox were open to poor offensive catchers but I don't think the rest of the Brewer lineup matches what the Red Sox bring to the table. I like Hiura but as of now 2B is going to be a big question mark for the first six weeks and who knows what Arcia will do. I do like Pina though.

Please note that I valued Woodruff the equivalent of a #80 prospect (on the top 100), Peralta as the equivalent of a #100 prospect and Ray the equivalent of a #110 prospect. If I had 20 different prospect lists and took the average of where each of these players fell on the list, those would be my "best guess" numbers. So actually I had Woodruff and Peralta higher in terms of rank. Ray gets the higher dollar value because when the experts start looking at old prospect lists and then calculate WAR for the players first six years based on the historical data, hitters tend to do better than pitchers so hitters get the slightly higher value numbers. See the following, which is the basis for most of the numbers I come up with. I believe the first time I saw this was when reillymcshane posted the 2016 version at brewerfan.net http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2018-updated-edition/

I'm on that Grandal train now too...but would have rather the Brewers thrown a 2 year, 22 million dollar figure at Wilson Ramos and seen if the Mets would have been willing to match/top it. I'd throw a 3 year, 39 million offer at Grandal and see how much further up we'd have to work from there. Probably would have to figure out a Chase Anderson trade to pay Grandal which I would be willing to do. I think 3 years, 45 million would be the absolute top figure that the Brewers could afford. Grandal isn't getting 60 million...would somewhere between 39 and 45 million be enough to make it happen? Would prefer to stay at 3 years, 42 million or under.

Going back to page 1, I think valuing Bumgarner as a 3 WAR player is more than fair (for the Giants) and if doing so his surplus value is +15 million dollars. I'd put Burnes surplus value at 33.3 million (#50 pitcher), Ray at 20.1 million (#110 hitter), Woodruff at 19.4 million (#80 pitcher) and Peralta at 15.6 million (#100 pitcher). So by my numbers, a straight up Bumgarner/Peralta swap would be pretty even, assuming one likes Bumgarner as a 3 WAR player next year. However, Bumgarner was not a 3 WAR pitcher in 2017 or 2018 by bWAR or fWAR (some of that is due to a fluke injury, some of that due to his own stupidity) and Steamer only projects him as a 2.1 WAR pitcher in 2019. The problem right from the get-go is, if you are a new GM in San Francisco, would you even be willing to trade Bumgarner for market value when considering what an icon he is there? I'm not surprised he is shooting high. Also will note that I think it would be absolutely foolish for a GM to overpay by 10 million dollars in a Bumgarner trade and assume that Bumgarner will be QO'ed, which he will reject and then the team would get a comp pick. Just too much stuff can happen over the course of 10 months. And if Bumgarner has a season similar to 2017/2018, would it even be wise for a team to give him a QO? QO's have seemed to slow down the market and it's likely that agents will adjust to this, take the big one year number for the non-superstars and try to get a better multi-year deal the following year when the player cannot be QO'ed. QO will likely be something around 18.5 million next year...if Bumgarner is a 2.1 WAR pitcher in 2019, then I don't think a small market team could even risk making the QO and having that huge 18.5 million dollar price-tag stuck on the payroll.

I was under the impression that the Giants shopped Bumgarner, and the offers were so low that they pulled him off the market. If a team overpays for him, it will very likely be because of his playoff reputation, and have nothing to do with actual data. Because when looking at the numbers, they pretty much scream that this is a player that has to be approached with a great deal of caution.