brewcrewdue80
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Everything posted by brewcrewdue80
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Yes. It's something like Combined Starts(110?) in 4seasons and/or missing a full season/ being on the DL to finish his contract when it comes to his potential 5th year. Off the top of my head.
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I was like huh? SP? Turner the guy the Dodgers have/had? Turner also was a top 10 SP prospect if I recall. But before we get our hopes up...Cubs/SD/Col/Arz/Phil all would be foolish to pass on acquiring him before allowing Milw get their chance. My guess is Heaney/Nicolino whichever isn't on the team is going to join the other in the Marlins rotation. It's actually just weird how both Turner and Eovaldi have struggled playing for Miami and vs. the NL East. Pretty much SPs more highly regarded than either Peralta/Nelson ever were. Yet they both can't maintain an ERA under 4.
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Mike Carp [Latest -- claimed by TEX]
brewcrewdue80 replied to SRB's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Rangers Claimed Carp...Brewers are far too high in the standings to have a realistic shot of claiming someone they need...Pitts needs the same things. Besides all the teams like Houston/Texas/Boston/Cubs and such that have nothing to lose to claim a project for the rest of the season if that project has any kind of future value. Obviously Bos wasn't going to claim Carp but, if Texas waives Carp after an 0-21 week, you better believe Bos will claim him again. -
My solution to the Cardinals HBP ways. Charge the mound halfway everytime it occurs. Start doing this game 1 of the season series. Stop argue how intentional that was, and turn to the ump saying your displeasure(in Gomez's case this is the umpteenth time they've hit me) Every single FB that's hbp. Do this. Benches will clear you as a Brewer with this strategy, never throw a punch, it's all for show. Delay the game 5-10min...all for show. Game 2 this happens repeat. At some point the Umps will just avoid this "Show" and toss the Cardinal Pitcher first before you charge at him. MLB will have all these mound charging due to HBPs they will take notice. Delay the game, delay the game, empty the benches, bullpen make this a fiasco for the intentional HBP that appears unintentional. Keep doing this vs. the Cardinals only, Maybe the rest of Baseball will catch up and do so to, and that HBP Cardinal way will disappear because the immense Nuisance it causes every single game.
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Marlins Acquire Jarred Cosart from Astros in 6-player deal
brewcrewdue80 replied to Bombers's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
This if the worst trade thus far I've seen unless this Enrique Hernandez/Martes duo are worth any lick. Moran and Marisnick are everyday players on Houston come 2016. (marisnick may be today) Throw in the comp pick(havent we seen Miami do this already!) I just don't get it. How great is Cosart? I don't think he's great enough to dump Moran that's for sure! -
I've read 8 pages thus far. Anyway. 2014 is the Now. Haniger has what a 2016 at best Rookie season?(2018 maybe peak in ability season?) EXPENDABLE!!!! Schafer has been awful. Parra is a massive upgrade to this team's bench/4th OF situation....MASSIVE!! This is a 12Star trade out of 10stars...Seriously, I have no clue what any single poster against this trade is thinking...losing Prospect Haniger, For a Gold Glove LH Bench/OF bat that helps a Playoff contending team of today? Whoa what are you all thinking? There's Gindl, there's still Schafer, and there's Taylor. Haniger isn't a future star. I have doubts he'll even make it one season as an everyday OF. So we traded for 1+years of Parra (Haniger's best scenario likely as a ML ballplayer) for the future Haniger....Yeah I'm very much down with that. Schafer absolutely failed in this role and it's been exposed multiple games for Milwaukee this season. As far as Playing time goes. Doesn't matter to me. Parra for the early part of his career was a 4th OF/Platoon guy. I think when he won his 2011 Gold Glove over Braun he earned that title(w/o looking it up) playing maybe in 110 games? He can spell Davis, give Braun a day or days off. Allow Gomez a day off. Certainly at the very least, The Brewers aren't playing a Black Hole of a ML baseball player (Schafer) if any of our 3 OFs experience a DL stint via injury. Parra is at least avg with his bat+elite defense. Plus we have our 4th OF locked up now for 2015? Steal. STEAL of a Deal!! Aside from a 1b upgrade, this is the 2nd most important improvement the team had a need for. And honestly, Parra may just be the #1 guy any team could of acquired if they were in Milw's shoes. I can't think of a better player to have targeted.
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To me Nelson is far more valuable than Segura because he's a 6'6" Workhorse/innings eating build SP. Segura's projection line reads like many SS outthere. Somehow he exceeded that line the first 2months last season but since is showing that projection line was pretty much dead on. I know the Red Sox are capable to just talk elsewhere with better offers and so let them. I don't think any other teams connected to Lester can offer a ML SP the quality of Nelson. Only ones out there would be Walker(who is having issues) and Heaney of the Marlins who don't make sense to go after Lester as they aren't really a playoff contender this year imo..give it another year with Fernandez back. Now if a team offers an exceptional Position prospect the Brewers can't match, so be it. Looking at the big picture Nelson has a ton of value right now, especially when you look at the team's offensive standing today, next year, and the future. 1b is a problem today. 3b will be a problem next year likely. CF the year after that. Nevermind the fact that Lohse/Gallardo exit after next season leaving Peralta/Garza as your SPs. Nelson is huge loss for a short term rental to this franchise. Especially when based on the standing 7teams are within 2.5games #1-7 in the NL with only 5 getting Playoff spots. Factor in 2 are automatic given to West/East The Brewers are 1 of 5 teams vying for the final 3 spots. 40% aren't going to make it. We're a little better than a coin flip right now to make the Playoffs. How do you give up a strength of the team to improve on it for 11/12 starts?...Maybe and give away 180 future starts doing so with just a coin flip's chance of even having that player make the playoffs? The team needs to stand pat, not panic and sell away the future to (maybe)improve on only a 60% chance of Postseason. 22 games thus far this month 82 runs scored. Take off the two 11/9 run games it's 60 runs in 20games. Meanwhile 92 runs given up total on the month in 22 games. We're 8-14 and it's not SP that is behind that record.
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Is that so? Proven by whom exactly? That reads as an opinion being passed off as fact. 2013 WS The Cards actually outhit the Sox and lost the series... maybe pitching is actually king? . Yes Boston hit better than StL. via OPS. SF (5th best record) Slugged Det(11th best record) in 2012 StL(8th best record) slugged Texas(4th best record) in 2011 SF(5th best record) SPs won 2010 WS over Texas(8th best record) of course 29runs in 5 games outpaces their season avg runs scored by 1.5 per game. None of the teams with the best RA avg in the last 4 years made the WS at all. So having the best pitching staff didn't help get those teams in to WS much less win it. Don't want to go further back in time 4years is recent enough, especially with the additional WC spot.
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The problem to me is comparing Grienke's trade value vs. Lester's is that the Angels really had poor pitching and absolutely needed an upgrade. The Brewers aren't in that shape they were. Yeah Segura is/was about Nelson's value and then Pena/Hellweg were throwins. But Segura is/was a huge acquisition to fill a major need. And meanwhile the Angels had 2 other SS/2b locked in longterm that even today, Segura likely is having a hard time to find ABs. Nelson is ML ready. He's not a Prospect imo anymore. Segura was a AA player at the time. Hellweg/Pena were as well. Nelson also isn't blocked to be the team's #5 SP. Now, trading away someone like Taylor okay. We have Gomez through 2016 and Monte Harrison is off to a great Start. Taylor may not have a long term fixture for this team due to that. Taylor just doesn't come with that top 100 prospect ranking. But if we are going to trade for Lester he's where they should start. Samardzija has team control value like Price so that to me adds value over Lester. You can get compensation for those guys upon leaving or at least trade them away in the future before they leave via FA. If you somehow acquire Lester and keep Nelson...How fantastic would that be because surely Nelson moves to the bullpen and then it's like finding our Flamethrowing RH RP while adding an Ace to the Playoff Rotation. But Dunno how we'd pull that off minus tossing Arcia/Taylor/Coulter and maybe even Jungmann?
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Price will net Milwaukee another Player when he departs. So while losing a Coulter/Nelson/ -Thornburg would hurt. That compensation pick pretty much to me replaces Coulter's loss at a minimum. And both Nelson/Thornburg were picked after the 1st rd. We do get a better SP today than what Thornburg/Nelson project to ever be. He'll also be LH. You know what will happen when the Price trade happens. It'll come out what this or that GM wasn't willing to part with/or were. Which at the very least gives Melvin knowledge of what he can ask back in the Offseason if he wanted to trade Price away vs. paying 20mil approx. for next year's services. I really don't think the Brewers need Price under their current roster setup. If they went out and got a 1b/Bench bat that improves on what we have today...Then I'd really jump on board getting Price. As evidence of the Brewers last two games offensively vs. Degrom/Odorizzi....It doesn't take elite pitching to shut this offense down. We don't need Price just to get in the Playoffs and score 4runs in 4games of a sweep. As has been proven of late, the teams that make the WS and win it are the ones who's hitter/s are hott at the plate.
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No way can Lester be worth Nelson. None. It makes zero sense to have left Nelson in your minors to keep him from reaching Super 2 status if in the back of your mind you were willing to trade him for a 2month+Postseason rental! None! Seriously, what are they thinking if they go through with this? You should have started Nelson then back near the end of May when Estrada's true capability was showing. At least then you would have seen if Nelson was expendable and/or giving Estrada a Bullpen spot that by this time in the season he could have shown value being one(like Wade Davis) Trading for Price losing Nelson, you at least have him for Next season where you can trade him in the offseason/during next season and/or getting your draft pick compensation when he declines a QO. Lester offers none of that. So I want none of him for Nelson.
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To put it in perspective, how this comes full circle for Ariz. I said above, I think Prado is the Dbacks 3b moving on to next season. They traded away Matt Davidson(the future at 3b) for...Addison Reed. Davidson was a top 80 prospect at the time. He's struggled in the White Sox' AAA triple slash line-wise, but still maintained his Power numbers. Reed comes with quite a bit of team control still remaining. He's not going to come at a small price. Not imo. Probably asking for a top100 prospect in return, or at least a minors guy who has future top 100 potential(like Arcia/Coulter/Taylor) Personally, I don't think Reed is special anymore. He's doesn't appear to be a shutdown RP. Rather just an arm with closer experience. His FIP is 4.55 while carrying a 3.89 ERA as closer. 9HRs given up. I want to say, Reed feels to me a lot like how I feel about Henderson. A non-closer who's pitched in that role and really isn't great at it.
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Man, I really don't know where to stand on this. Nelson? Or 1.35 seasons of Price? 12 Starts left this season plus Playoffs which isn't set in stone. There's part of me that know Price will be a QO recipient so there's a top 30 draft pick coming back for him at some point. Or of course we trade him in the offseason for what may be an equal or even better return. I'm not going to be overly upset at losing Thornburg. Coulter? I think he's expendable based on the fact he's so far away at a position still from what I've read he's not likely going to stick at. Which then means how much longer does it take for him when he moves off from Catcher in to the OF or 3b or 1b wherever it may be to get ML ready? I'm just so on the fence to trade away Nelson due to his HR/9 rate being so miniscule that I feel he's going to be great as a Milw SP. Price has his HR problems this year. And again it's 12 starts (maybe 11) if this happens. The best, best scenario to me is that we acquire Price. Play out the season with him. Flip Price to the Dodgers(who want him) for say Seager, chris reed, and Jesmuel Valentine. Would provide us with 3b of future and 2b of future along with a backend Rotation SP. Let's say we do lose Gennett in the Price deal. Seager to SS in 2015, Segura at 2b and ARam at 3b. Then 2016 you have Seager at 3b, Segura at 2b still, and Arcia is SS at that point. I'll hate losing Gennett the rest of this season but if there's this kind of trade possibility after the season and we'll be okay for next season, then I can dig it.
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Who is the 2014 version of Jerry Hairston?
brewcrewdue80 replied to Baldkin's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Hmm, LouisEly. That's an interesting development. Flores was a guy that I thought was to be the Mets 2b of the future. I'm not quite sold, Tejada will be made available in trade. I'm guessing the Mets are trying Flores out for SS to see if he can stay there but if his defensive numbers fall off, I'm thinking Tejada remains their man at SS and Daniel Murphy is actually made available in trade in the Offseason, thus creating the importance to hold on to Tejada. Tejada would definitely be a nicer fit for backup 2b/SS than Bianchi. -
Mike Carp [Latest -- claimed by TEX]
brewcrewdue80 replied to SRB's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
From where I'm looking at his numbers on BRef. Carp would be better to play 1b. In the OF, his Defensive numbers tell me he costs the team .2runs per game he's out there. Is his bat for the OF really going to be able to play up to cover that+? Over Davis? OR Schafer? Essentially you're swapping -.2runs offensively per game for Schafer and none defensively, for Carp's -.2runs defensively and none offensively. I guess he's a better Pinch Hitter option than Schafer but if Gomez went down to injury? We're left with Braun playing CF. Davis/Carp one of them in RF! So yeah, I'm not buying in to Carp in the OF. 1b over Overbay? man that's tough, Don't know for this year considering Overbay's clutch hits, but Next season, Carp would at least provide a viable 1b option -
What about Alex Gordon in 2015?
brewcrewdue80 replied to The stache's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I'd say we are dreaming on getting Alex Gordon. There is no reason for the Royals to trade him away, unless we decided to offer them Peralta/Davis plus one of Arcia, Taylor, or Coulter. Why would the Brewers do that? The only way to entice the Royals to trade Gordon is to give them an absolutely ridiculous offer that deserves the GM having his head examined for doing so. KC is 1 game from the Wildcard currently in, to me, a very weak AL. They won't sell any pieces. Gordon being traded away is like Braun being traded away for Milw. He's their Franchise Player/Star their Fans most likely have bought in to since his first game. He's going to put up north of 5WAR this season and has 12.5mil salary next season with a 12.5mil option in 2016. If you're on the same page 1WAR is worth 6mil-ish in FA, KC is getting 60mil worth+ from Gordon for 25mil cost moving forward. And this season is year #4 of continuing a 5WAR or more trend, it's fairly safe to say he's going to continue it at age 31+32. Literally, to acquire Gordon, If I was their GM, the offer that gets me to entertain the idea, is Davis+Peralta+Arcia or Coulter maybe both! We're talking a 5+WAR player for what? Davis being a 1.5-3WAR player? Peralta being a 1.5-3WAR SP? and Prospects....I think KC is losing on that offer maybe I should add Nelson in to it. That is how Special Gordon is. How far ahead in talent he is over his peers. 5WAR+ players aren't abundant, but 1.5-3WAR players certainly are. -
The Magical Magic Number is... [2014]
brewcrewdue80 replied to lcbj68c's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I'm fine with the Count Down. I assume this is for the Division Title but can also be turned for Playoff Purposes if the Brewers happen to lose hold of 1st place in the division. Why not? Just a Quick Glance at Schedules among the 6 current teams closest to knock Milw from the Playoffs: Wash: 9 vs. Atl, 3vs Pitts, 3 vs. SF, 3 vs. LAD Easiest route with so many games vs. Miami,NYM, Philly all told:18vs. the Top 6. Atl: 9 vs. Wash, 7 vs. LAD, 7 vs. Pitts All told 23 vs. the Top 6 LAD: 3 vs. Wash, 7 vs. Atl, 8 vs. SF, 6 vs. Milw All told 24 vs. Top 6 SF: 3 vs. Wash, 8 vs. LAD, 3 vs. Pitts, 6 vs. Milw All told 20 vs. Top 6 Pitts: 3 vs. Wash, 7 vs. Atl, 3 vs. SF, 6 vs. Milw, 6 vs. StL All told 25 vs. Top 6 Stl: 6 vs. Pitts, 10 vs. Milw All Told just 16 vs. top 6 Milw: 6 vs. LAD, 6 vs. SF, 6 vs. Pitts, 10 vs. StL All told 28 vs. top 6 Hmm, Milwaukee clearly controls their destiny with having the most games vs. the Playoff Contenders they are fighting off. Just wanted to list this because on avg. the Top 6 Milw has to fight off have 21games on avg. vs. the same competition. Say a .500 record vs. eachother would result then with 10.5 Losses. So while it's at 56 I can think of it as about 46 between Milw Wins and opposite competion losses. Say Milw plays .500 ball the rest of the way that's 28.5/57 You're down to 18Losses for each team vs. Non top 6 the rest of the way. While it's close overall in the Standings, There stands a good chance one or 2 teams will dominate a matchup vs. the Top 6 and thus knock those 2 teams down the standings. Atl/LAD are kinda whom I'm thinking will either play their way in to Division title or Loss their way out of it with the remaining H2H matchups. But again, Milw can really take care of business just by taking care of the Cards. 7-3 out of those 10 games would really boost them. -
So I looked at the Theo Comment article then of course read on in comments. In it someone lists the avg MLB Payroll ranking StL has had for say the last 12years maybe? The avg. amount? 10th or 11th in all of Baseball. Meanwhile, Forbes I think it was mentioned listed StL has having the 8th best Team Valuation. So how does a Small Market who pays top 1/3rd in baseball Payroll able to create enough Revenue to be top 3rd in Baseball? 283Mil revenue after 133Mil Player costs. Milw: 197mil Revenue after 103Mil Player costs. So they can not only spend 30% more on their Players than Milw but also have 40-45% more Revenue than Milw while doing so? Yeah they definitely need a Competitive Balance pick! Or at the very least, there just can't be any real reason you can't blatantly see the Cards don't deserve being in the 1st rd. Drawing. The rumor from Theo's article is that StL. will use their pick in the deal to acquire Price...Or who knows? Lee. Maybe the entire Comp. Balance Lottery should be drawn on the bottom 10 on Forbes valuation list. That would have been in reverse order: Tampa, KC, Oak, Miami, Houston, Milw, Clev, Pitts, Colo., and Arizona. Would just be a random drawing of those 10 for 5 picks end of 1st rd. 5picks end of 2nd rd.
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Grantland: Analysis of NL Central Race
brewcrewdue80 replied to MoreTrife's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Not sure where to post this, but how do the Brewers come back from the AS Break with 13 straight games...Meanwhile the Cards will have 3 days off in between series, before Milwaukee gets their first day off! Today was their 2nd off day since the break? Only positive is Milw's off day is before the Cards series while StL has to fly home from SD the night before.(of course Wainwright pitching that day makes things likely far easier to transition) Just seems very friendly to me. Wainwright gets to pitch 3 turns in a 9game span for StL due to the off days-July22/27/Aug1 vs. Milw. Which will be day after trade deadline. So say they nab Price, this "Injury bug" they have with the SP currently, isn't really being exposed since they are skipping turns in their rotation just in time to pick up someone via Trade if needed. Yep, they aren't using their #5 SP until Maybe the Aug 2nd game vs. Milw. Nelson will be on turn #3 on that same day. And again, Wouldn't be surprised if StL Nabbed a SP before the Trade Deadline who just may take that day's game, giving them the ability to avoid using a #5 SP the entire 2nd half(since that acquired SP would be better than a #5 typically) Who came up with this schedule? -
2014 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
brewcrewdue80 replied to 1992casey's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
Monte Harrison is putting up some positive numbers thus far. 16SBs-1CS 20BBs/27Ks in 108PAs Though many of his hits are singles thus far with all those walks so I can understand why his SB numbers are up there in 25games. Gatewood at .167/.212/.219 in 24 games.... :/ 39ks in 102PAs Medeiros numbers aren't great but I'm not going to put too much on his numbers this year. Stuff/velocity is what's important early figure he'll improve on location as time goes by... -
So, I am looking at last year's top ten international prospects on MLB.com only one lists as reaching at 2016 at age 20. Rafael Devers has climbed from DSL to the next level. The Yankees put Leonardo Molina in their rookie League. Based on that we're looking realistically at a 2018 arrival for Lara with '17 being early it would seem. I think Odor from Texas was an international signing who made it up at 20? Just anxious to have someone in the system who really is gleemed over like the Pirate's Polanco/Cardinals Tavaras/Reds Stephenson/and the Cubs multiples Kris Bryant has Braun like Numbers at a younger age!

