brewcrewdue80

To the above comment. It seems like a small sample sized study. Retracting it doesn't mean bottom is falling out. If anything it brings in to question the validity of studies, likely paid for to do and just how much was used for that study. This reads like someone who gamed the system possibly for personal gain. As to Rogan. He went through covid. I might guess Rodgers used some advice to the experience Rogan went through. Not a full on medical advice as these pages read as if happened. Maybe part of that conversation was would he get vaccinated now after going through it? You can continue the conversation in your head with that train of thought.

Just being a placeholder who may do better than your post's numbers. What will Oakland do for 1b with Olson gone? Toronto had somebody that made Tellez available. For Oakland they don't have somebody. Their influence to make a trade is payroll. Sell high. A batter going through their prime for about 2mil. Or does Oakland turn to 35+yr Olds FAs who most likely bat at best the Tellez numbers you frown upon. If Milw got Olson they have no reason to keep Tellez. Just seems natural the As take Tellez as part of the deal. Somebody stated Oakland is at a rebuild. You still need to put a team out there. All this fuss said, I don't see it happening. Trading for Olson who's pricey and losing top prospects. Tellez fits in to the Brewers roster as it stands right now. Fairly cheap, mild projection at 1b. Think Keston Hiura is the hope to fix and continue on at 1b. Meanwhile Tellez holds 1b.

Pretty much Agreed. I suppose the only way it may be worthy is losing twice to teams that are top 5 in playoff rankings prior to winning a rematch in conference championship game that removes that other team from playoffs. Think if WI lost to ND and Ohio State (obviously made up for this scenario) but then beat Ohio State in conference final. I just don't think both teams should make the playoffs, which I think has happened.

I thought on the rule that with the waivers and claim from worst to first, the acquiring team picked up the remainder of the contract owed. I guess a quick look and that team picks up 7.25mil for remainder of season. (I guess the Browns made a deal to make Odell a FA after this season) Can GB fit that in to their salary cap hit? Would have to imagine either way that a team gives him a look before GB has the chance to claim him. We are 28th in order with teams like Tampa, Buffalo, and Dallas ahead of us. Add Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to add salt to the wound on Cleveland.

Only if they choose to be handcuffed by it Ah yes, your belief that Milw works with NY and LADodger money to sign any and all they please to sign. I mean I suppose they can sign Castellanos to a 4 year deal but then when Arb awards all the Brewers biggest 3 we can just trade Woodruff or Burnes and move forward from great pitching for aging, defensively bad FAs. You know because large inappropriate contracts are easy to get away from. We'll just toss in 20Mil one year if/when Castellanos looks toast because we have that history doing such like NY and LADodgers.

Kinda the way I'm seeing it. Does a rebuild need to be a sub 65win season? Tellez is also capable of providing value to maybe return something in a trade while being a 1st base placeholder. I dunno the As roster/minors. Maybe they have a cheap 1b to replace Olson. When a franchise consistently puts team payrolls below where Milw puts it I'd think Tellez may fit. (Though I didn't realize Tellez is 1st year Arb) So dug in a little. Olson is projected at 12mil. Beyond him 1b is twice waived(KC&Cubs last year) Frank Scwindel. Oakland doesnt have a 1b in their top 30 projected to the majors until 2024. They most definitely need a 1b. You will have some oldies to sign like they did with Mitch Moreland last season. Tellez is entering that age 27 season. Maybe that includes a little more progress. For under 2mil that may be more worth a try than 2-ish mil to Moreland or Asdrubal Cabrera at 1st base. Im not suggesting Tellez as the headliner. Just being included in this trade to save a prospect loss. Frank Schwindel is definitely still a Cub. Oops, I misread that transaction as Oakland picking up Schwindel not vice versa. While a mistake it does add to the need Oakland has at 1b beyond Olson even more. Looking at defensive Olson was 1b 152 games Moreland had 7games played there and Seth Brown had 6 whom I see has some minor league experience at 1b but again theres nobody in the minors to take over Olson's spot under the age of 30.

Well you can always hope for a good season when a guy will be a FA the next. Ala Avisail Garcia. Watch JBJ bat over 200 next season and have a 5+WAR season so they can cash in on the next contract.

Heres my take. Brewers offer him the QO he's accepting it 100pct. He cannot test FA market with draft comp attached to him. Meanwhile the following year he would be free from a QO. He seems to know how to play well before testing FA so I expect he'd have a good season once again after accepting the offer. The big problem would be when he does Milw has just about nothing left to spend in FA and there is your FA buy. Castellanos is a pipedream. Can't tie that contract in to the future payroll. most likely the Brewers don't offer the QO getting nothing back while losing a FA to a 15M plus contract. That to me is where MLB needs to compensate lost players to FA. Instead of the QO, make the AAV amount what qualifies as compensation without losing a draft pick. You could set it at like the average value of #100 to receive the comp. Maybe you make RPs at 125 for a comp. For a club to have to pay 18.4Mil to receive a comp is asinine since large markets will just toss them QOs and small markets tend to shy away or trade the player a year before having to face the decision. Going to add this may be a good idea if the new CBA reduces team control to 5years. About the only way it is abused is say the Yankees and Dodgers etc. swap FAs they have by signing them to a big contract. Maybe then you only give them a 2nd rd comp vs say bottom 20 markets a 1st rd comp. End the removal of draft picks altogether.

Why would the A's want Tellez if they are rebuilding? The A's could just bring up some AAAA type at a cheaper price than having Tellez included in the trade. Just doesn't make any sense why they would want Tellez or even Vogelbach included in a deal for Olson. Kinda the way I'm seeing it. Does a rebuild need to be a sub 65win season? Tellez is also capable of providing value to maybe return something in a trade while being a 1st base placeholder. I dunno the As roster/minors. Maybe they have a cheap 1b to replace Olson. When a franchise consistently puts team payrolls below where Milw puts it I'd think Tellez may fit. (Though I didn't realize Tellez is 1st year Arb) So dug in a little. Olson is projected at 12mil. Beyond him 1b is twice waived(KC&Cubs last year) Frank Scwindel. Oakland doesnt have a 1b in their top 30 projected to the majors until 2024. They most definitely need a 1b. You will have some oldies to sign like they did with Mitch Moreland last season. Tellez is entering that age 27 season. Maybe that includes a little more progress. For under 2mil that may be more worth a try than 2-ish mil to Moreland or Asdrubal Cabrera at 1st base. Im not suggesting Tellez as the headliner. Just being included in this trade to save a prospect loss.

This is so easy it's not even funny...for a year the Brewers can boost the payroll..give Castellanos 3yrs 60 mill(I go 66 mill if I need to to get it done). Next year Cain comes off the books...that's 17 mill of that amount right there. So essentially they raise payroll by 5 million. Sportrac has them at 105 million for next year, if they can't raise it another 20-22 million for ONE year(essentially) then they might as well just start trading guys and punt. Except the Brewers will be hurting from Arbitration numbers. I don't know what projection was but obviously many Brewers in Arb will be getting the max on the projection or even higher when winning their case. I expect Castellanos to be signed well before Milw can make a play for him. Milw will be handcuffed awaiting the final tally on the Arb costs. Didn't Hader have a 6mil ask before losing? BRef has Burnes at approximately 4Mil. I would think that is light. Say he asks for 6.5Mil. They take it to the panel and Burnes wins? That is a whole different payroll moving forward for him. Same applies to Woodruff and Adames. If they don't come to an agreement that's typically a 2+Mil spread. Thats adding not just for 2022 but then 2-5Mil on 2023. 4-10Mil in in 2024. Brewers have legit 3 players that ark may occur. And whats the new CBA going to bring?

If you have a trade for Olson, wouldn't you think Tellez be included it to give the As a Replacement for 1st base?

If you are talking velocity, the guy averages 95-96 on his FB, and can pump it up to 98. Velocity isn't an issue. Command is. Yeah not on velocity just the value that pitch has given him in his career which is just about negative runs each season. I think what the lab is going to do is have him pitch more of a secondary pitch they believe is valuable and less of the pitch that isn't so much. BSavant did have an overlay on a prior season where his slider seemed to finish in a very small radius or controlled. Just that it's a very small sample, smaller than that changeup. I just think from some of what we have seen a changeup seems to be used more often among the pitching, so I assume that is where they go versus that slider.

Don't know where this should be put. Just a story on Jonathan Taylor who's getting cred. Happy to see former Badgers see success at the professional level. https://www.espn.com/blog/indianapolis-colts/post/_/id/26844/following-in-edgerrin-james-footsteps-jonathan-taylors-the-indianapolis-colts-next-star-running-back You just knew he was a steal in that draft.

Seems to have a great curveball but not so much on his FB. In 2019 he threw far more changeups with mild success that could be your Brewer pitching lab focus. We'll see.

Well on a positive side. The Braves 4 wins came with the Astros scoring: 2,0,2,0 runs. Clearly a pitching won series as it was against Milwaukee. Wasn't just our bad offense that made Braves pitching look good. Can we keep this Brewer team of pitching together and get some more hitting we are WS worthy.

The Brewers side on the trade value scale is definitely going to be wrong after the 2021 season majority of them had. These future values get degraded sooo much with them not inside the top 100 but there are guys knocking on that door that you are selling off here in these trades. Take the Harrison comp in regards to Yelich trade. He wasn't a top 100 prospect right up until then he was. There will be new lists coming here in the next 2 months that may change where guys like Ashby and Frelick are ranked. I wouldn't be surprised if Ashby himself is put in that 60-80 range after the preview he gave in a few of these lists. I mean how high is Wiemer going to climb in the Brewers top 30? He may have jumped Turang with the season he had. Zamora had an exceptional season. Just saying gotta give some more credit to our prospects future value than pulling their values from mid-season grades.

Even with missing a big chunk of last year, the 3 year average bWAR/fWAR for Marte is 4.0 (2020 gets multiplied by 2.7 to take the shortened 60 game season to a full 162 game season). BaseballTradeValue's number seems really low to me. They have him at 37.3, then add the salaries for the next three years (30 million) = 67.3 / 9(*)(1 WAR) = 7.5 / 3 seasons = they value him at 2.5 WAR per season over the next three years. So their projection is 1.5 WAR per season under what his has done over the last three years. If you use 4 WAR per season....12 times 9(*) = 108 - 30 million in salary = 78 million. I have him as more than twice the value as BTV. I strongly suspect that in a competitive market, and at 30 million over 3 years, that my number would be much closer than the BTV number. If I'm in the chair of the Diamondbacks GM, I'd counter-offer- OF - Garrett Mitchell LHP - Aaron Ashby LHP - Ethan Small 2B - Tyler Black OF - Luis Medina I'd guess Mitchell plus one of Ashby/Small are the basic requirements, can't see a deal getting done without those two pieces involved. (*) = BaseballTradeValues must be using WAR = ~9 million in their model, otherwise how do you come up with Corbin Burnes number of +190.2 million? Let's say Burnes continues to pitch well and earn 24 million over the next three years, probably a fair number. So that brings the number to 214 million. 214 / 9 = 23.78 WAR / 3 seasons = 7.92 annual WAR. If you use 1 WAR = 5 million, then 214 / 5 = 42.8 WAR / 3 seasons = 14.26 annual WAR. Burnes was a 6.55 bWAR/fWAR player in 2021. No way anyone could project him to be a 14 WAR per season player. The last time a pitcher hit 14 bWAR was Walter Johnson back in 1913. So I guess I will qualify my statement. If Burnes pitches an average of 350 innings per season over the next three years, there is an outside chance that he could be a 14 WAR per season player. Just not going to see a 5 for 1. Arizona would have to toss in likely a cheap 1WAR ish type RP. Looking at BRef that may include: Kevin Ginkel, J.B. Bukauskas, Jon Duplantier, or a Miguel Aguilar. Guys you can shuttle with options that may have some upside to their potential with work in their pitching complex. I am on the side that I'd stick with Taylor this offseason and look for the upgrade in a trade deadline move next year if that is needed. Your top prospects are OFs. You need to control your payroll expenses/obligations until you have found a deal you like trading Hader or Woodruff who are going to get very expensive in arb.

That has a lot to do with Lafluer's feeding Jones as his goal line RB since that 2019 TD season he had when Dillon was a rookie. Dillon can't prove what he is when he's always standing on the sideline. He deserved a shot after how he ran today. At least use him as a decoy! While having Jones on the field too.

AJ Dillon deserves a better coach with his style of running. I was waiting on all 4 of those on the goal line to see them run Dillon at the FB with Jones option two at RB. Dive or off tackle. Huge 1st down earlier in 4th quarter on the dive run and they not 1 time went back to it? If Deguara wasn't on the field because Dillon is you don't blow a 5yard delay of game. Both goals to go from inside 5 yard line and Dillon I believe saw 0 snaps. Just trade him already with that ignorance and poor use of him. I definitely feel that inside the 10. Rodgers and MLF 75pct of time decide who they will get the TD with. Cobb tonight with 2 and a 3rd defended on 4th. Jones on rushing TDs predetermined just can't go with Dillon.

Wow.

Wanted to chime in. This season I feel he is completely lost compared to last season. Bad bad middle LB play by him.

1 TD accomplished! Let's go. Big drive. Huuuuuggggeee

Big mistake and probably cost not only himself the season but the tacklers season or career as well. Brutal shot. He was out.

Murray finally taking what defense gives him. We need 2 more TDs to win this game.

Big hit there Rodgers took. Drove him in to ground. Great catch by Cobb. That's is stepping up when Rodgers needs you.