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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Early ZiPS projected NL standings are up over at FanGraphs today. Has the NLC win totals at…STL (83) CHI (81) MIL (80) CIN (79) PIT (75) Here is where it saw the NLC at the same time last year with the actual win total following the projection… STL (91, 71) MIL (83, 92) CHC (78, 83) CIN (70, 82) PIT (68, 76) Twelve wins seems like a pretty steep drop to me. No Burnes (4.8 rWAR), Woodruff (2.8 rWAR) or Houser (1.4 rWAR) is 9 wins of rotation mainstays gone. But no Lauer (-0.8 rWAR), Bush (-0.7 rWAR) or Chafin (-0.4 rWAR) eats into that by a couple wins. Offense is a few wins worse with no Caratini (1.1 WAR), Canha (1.0 WAR), Taylor (0.8 WAR) or Santana (0.7 WAR). But not having guys like Rowdy (-0.9 WAR), Winker (-0.8 WAR), Brosseau (-0.5 WAR), Voit (-0.4 WAR) or Singleton (-0.4 WAR) wipes most of that out. On paper, I’d see 2024 about seven or eight wins short of 2023 before accounting for offseason additions and hopeful improvement from a stable of young position players.
  2. sveumrules
    Lillard hurt, Middleton hurt, Lopez missed the last few games before last night for the birth of his child. Integral players shuffling in and out of the lineup (and literally having zero healthy point guards last night after Payne was dealt) will have a discombobulating effect. Rivers took over on a five game road trip out West that was always going to be one of the tougher stretches of the season, even if they hired Nurse in the offseason like everybody but Giannis knew they should have. My expectation was always that it would take time to undo Griffin’s idiocy and they would get worse in the short term, especially considering they had one of the easier first half schedules and one of the more difficult second half slates.
  3. sveumrules
    Junis 2023: 0.7 WAR Sanchez 2023: 1.7 WAR Turner 2023: 1.2 WAR So instead of a 39 year old DH they got two 31 year olds that can contribute from the rotation, the bullpen, catcher and DH who were already twice as valuable as a 38 year old Turner. Turner is what he is and his wRC+ has been falling for three straight years, Junis and Sanchez both have areas where the Brewers could help them improve still.
  4. sveumrules
    Yup. Giants 2022-23 -79 DRS (28th) 3.94 ERA vs 3.67 FIP +0.27 difference (26th) Brewers 2022-23 +113 DRS (2nd) 3.78 ERA vs 4.07 FIP -0.29 difference (3rd) On average, pitching for the Brewers vs the Giants the last two years would net a pitcher over half a run improvement on their ERA. And that’s with SF playing in one of thee most favorable pitching environments in baseball.
  5. sveumrules
    Last year Caratini got 226 PAs. I’d guess Sanchez gets more than that because he can be a DH option on days he isn’t catching. Barring a return to early career form on offense, or an injury to Contreras, I’d guess he comes in around 300 PAs. Sanchez put up 1.7 WAR in only 276 PAs last year, 15th among 36 catchers with at least 250 PA in 2023. If he matches that production this year he’ll be a steal for $7M.
  6. sveumrules
    2023 Haase: -1.4 WAR 2023 Sanchez: 1.7 WAR Among 32 catchers with at least 750 PAs since 2021 Sanchez ranks 15th with a 99 wRC+ and 13th with 4.6 WAR (same as Mitch Garver). We just added a starting calibre catcher to be our backup.
  7. sveumrules
    Just one more roadblock for Catcher of the Future Wes Clarke.
  8. sveumrules
    Belt makes the most sense to me of the guys still out there. DH everyday vs RHP and spell Hoskins at 1B as needed. I’d be fine with JDM too, costs more and doesn’t give any positional flex, but would be a certified middle of the order masher. Don’t see then going multiple years on a DH only guy, so prolly no dice on Soler unless he wants to take a high dollar short term deal like Teoscar did with the Dodgers. Dark horse move could be trading Adames, then reinvesting the money saved on him and Burnes to sign Matt Chapman.
  9. sveumrules
    BTV has six years of Mayo with $43.7M in surplus value versus one year of Burnes at $33.3M, so this is the most likely possibility. Or maybe the Orioles said sure, we’ll give you Mayo, but we’re going to need someone like Gasser ($10.5M), Brock Wilken ($8.9M) or Payamps ($8.8M) included to even things out. Or maybe the Brewers didn’t have a singular focus on getting power back instead focusing on getting what they viewed as the best overall return.
  10. sveumrules
    Yeah, Adames is still young enough to have that peak season, and what better year to do it than his walk year. He also hasn’t really had a season where put together top end offense and defense 2019 99 wRC+ | +11.8 DEF | 3.3 WAR 2021 120 wRC+ | -0.3 DEF | 3.3 WAR 2022 109 wRC+ | +14.8 DEF | 4.6 WAR 2023 94 wRC+ | +17.7 DEF | 3.4 WAR His best hitting year was his worst by the fielding metrics in 2021, and then this last year he posted his worst hitting and best fielding numbers. If he can come out and post a wRC+ around 120 with +15 DEF that should get him up around 5 WAR and give him a shot at landing a Dansby Swanson sized deal in FA.
  11. sveumrules
    That will very likely end up being the case as the Celtics appear to be in a tier of their own, but the Bucks are playing with no Dame, no Brook and likely no Khris the rest of the game after he left early with a rolled ankle…and they still lead a fully healthy Durant, Booker and Beal at half.
  12. sveumrules
    Have a feeling the staff is going to be deployed in much more of a nebulous Rays like fashion now that Burnes/Woodruff are gone.
  13. sveumrules
    Right, but for all those extra starts, Houser only threw 16 additional IP.
  14. sveumrules
    Houser 2022-23 214 IP | 105 ERA- | 97 FIP- | 108 GB%+ | 79 K%+ Junis 2022-23 198 IP | 104 ERA- | 93 FIP- | 100 GB%+ | 102 K%+ So essentially Houser with more Ks and less GBs.
  15. sveumrules
    This is why you extend Chourio before he has his 6 WAR breakout season.
  16. sveumrules
    Article over on FanGraphs today about which players saw the biggest gains and losses to their 2024-27 projections based on their performance in 2023. Brewers landed four risers with Tyler Black, Jackson Chourio, William Contreras and Abner Uribe all catching the computer’s eye.
  17. sveumrules
    Dude kind of sounds like Bauer-lite a little bit. Had the incident with Plesac where they violated Covid protocols, then he had a domestic incident last year. MLB didn’t take official disciplinary action, but sounds like Clevinger “voluntarily” entered some kind of treatment program. Could be a factor in why he hasn’t signed yet, or could just be waiting out Snell and Montgomery.
  18. sveumrules
    That’s gotta be the most aggressive placement for Quero so far. Exciting stuff.
  19. sveumrules
    Interesting idea as the Jays could use a boost at 3B/2B, though I don’t think Adames (+18 DRS | +17 OAA from 2021-23) on the eve of free agency would be the one moving off SS with Bichette at -9 DRS | -15 OAA over that same time frame. Only guy close to Adames (per BTV’s estimation anyway) that really makes sense is Alex Manoah. Would be a pretty huge risk given his implosion last year, but if he figured it out again that’s potentially four years of a TOR starter.
  20. sveumrules
    Welcome to the board. All things considered, best case scenario for Rhys would probably be to come out raking but have the Brewers be non-competitive and deal him at the deadline. That way he could opt out without a potential qualifying offer hanging over his head. If that scenario plays out, have to imagine the Brewers would want to get prospect(s) back that are at least equal in value to the comp pick they’d get with the QO.
  21. sveumrules
    You said “a bit behind” which doesn’t imply a huge difference at all. Charlie Greene and staff were able to coach up Narvaez, Contreras and Caratini on framing… Narvaez 16-19: -22.3 FRM 20-22: +20.2 FRM Contreras 20-22: -6.3 FRM 2023: +14.4 FRM Caratini 17-21: -5.0 FRM 22-23: +10.1 FRM Their CS% didn’t see quite the same level of improvement… Narvaez 16-19: 52/251 = 20.7 CS% 20-22: 47/218 = 21.6 CS% Contreras 20-22: 16/71 = 22.5 CS% 2023: 16/93 = 17.2 CS% Caratini 17-21: 30/142 = 21.1 CS% 22-23: 22/106 = 20.8 CS% Yes, A/A+ base runners aren’t as good at stealing bases as AA (or especially MLB) base runners are. Narvaez had a 25.0 CS% between AA-AAA, Contreras was at 32.7% in AA, Caratini was at 26% in AA. If you can only throw out 10.3% of AA base runners, MLB players will run wild.
  22. sveumrules
    I'd be fine with the offense as is, and running more of Yelich at DH with some combo of Mitchell/Wiemer getting the majority of the time at the other OF spot. Overall value wise it's probably close to a wash with a veteran DH providing a little more certainty and lineup depth versus Mitchell/Wiemer having a wider range of potential outcomes.
  23. sveumrules
    4/39 = 10.3 CS% 27/78 = 34.6 CS% If you legitimately believe this to be a just a bit of a difference, you need to recalibrate. If you understand the sheer magnitude of that difference and are just trying to undersell it, you are being openly disingenuous.
  24. sveumrules
    Spend Burnes money on a bat and could run out something like this… 1. Frelick RF (projected 103 wRC+) 2. Contreras C (projected 120 wRC+) 3. Yelich LF (projected 116 wRC+) 4. Hoskins 1B (projected 115 wRC+) 5. Soler (119) / Belt (106) / JDM (107) 6. Adames SS (projected 103 wRC+) 7. Black 3B (projected 104 wRC+) 8. Ortiz 2B (projected 100 wRC+) 9. Chourio CF (projected 93 wRC+) That’d be a pretty fun lineup.
  25. sveumrules
    Good thing the guy that made it works in NY now then.
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