sveumrules

TJ is pretty routine at this point, but TJ after a failed PRP and then two whole missed seasons adds some more uncertainty into the mix. Hitting that rehab timeline with no further setbacks would be a best case scenario, sure, but that’s rarely how pitching development timelines play out. That said, I agree the Phillies are unlikely to deal Painter because the ceiling is so high. They are also better positioned to gamble on it than the Brewers are. If he goes Sixto Sanchez on them, oh well, they can buy another FA pitcher. If he did the same for us, we just traded away our two best reload assets for nothing and set back the rebuild by howsoever many years. That’s why I think if the Brewers were to move both Burnes/Williams in one trade they would target a headliner with less risk in their profile and on a faster timeline than Painter. Casuals will be peeved no matter what if we deal Corbin/Devin, but if we deal them for a pitcher who is hurt and won’t even pitch this year…oh man, Brewers internet might explode and 69% of the ticket reps would probably quit.

I wouldn’t want any part of Castellanos, even if the Phils were kicking in cash. If you’re dealing Burnes/Devin, just go for maximum future value and don’t clog up the books with three years of dead money on a player who’s posted a 102 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR over his last 1,229 PA since turning 30. Painter has tremendous upside, but he missed all of 2023 after his PRP injection from the spring didn’t take which necessitated TJ in July, which will pretty much wipe out his whole 2024. Missing two straight years is a pretty big hit to his value for me. Abel is their only other prospect of note even close to MLB, and I’d actually value him above Painter just because at least he threw 112 IP last year. Control isn’t good (65 BB in those 112 IP) and FG scouting report notes his fastball has suboptimal shape. Apparently he has good spin on his breakers, but inconsistent mechanics limit his ability to do so consistently. Maybe the Brewers would view him as a guy their dev staff could help to reach his ceiling, but if we’re dealing both of Corbin/Williams, I would hope for a little more certainty from the headliners in the deal. Miller is pretty much their next best guy and he was just drafted last year, which speaks to the dearth of depth in their system. This blurb from his FG report should probably give Brewers fans pause as well… ”The power potential here is exciting and gives Miller an everyday player’s ceiling, but after Kieboom, Keston Hiura, and the rocky history of other hitters whose hand paths work like this, readers should know there’s hit tool risk here.“

Has it though? In each of the last two seasons and three of the last four full seasons the Brewers have set new payroll records. Despite ranking 30th in market size, their spending is typically around ten spots higher with OD payroll ranks of 17th, 19th, 19th and 20th the last four full seasons. The last seven years (2017-23) they have a .555 W% compared to a .469 W% from 2012-16 and a .526 W% during the Braun/Fielder years from 2007-11. Mark A's Brewers peaked in OD payroll rank at 13th in 2012 at $89M, a season they finished 83-79. If the Brewers wanted to open 2023 at 13th in payroll they would have had needed to spend $182M, or about $63M than they did.

FanGraphs depth charts currently has the Phillies bullpen first in MLB. Jose Alvarado (74 IP | 3.03 ERA | 3.34 FIP | 1.7 WAR) has essentially the same projection as Devin Williams (66 IP | 3.09 ERA | 3.26 FIP | 1.4 WAR).

MLBTR reporting that Michael Brantley has joined fellow 2008 Huntsville Stars Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel, Angel Salome, Matt LaPorta and Lorenzo Cain in retirement. Among 57 players with at least 5,000 PAs from 2011-22, Brantley came in at... 5646 PA (22nd) | 10.6 K% (1st) | .300 AVG (5th) | 121 wRC+ (24th) | 29.7 WAR (29th) | 90.6 Contact% (1st) | 3.9% SwStr% (57th) The word elite gets thrown around a lot, but Brantley was a truly elite contact hitter for over a decade.

Rhys Hoskins fun fact, his 1.194 OPS at Miller Family Stadium is his 3rd best OPS in any ballpark, and first best among parks where he has at least 15 PA. Considering he is likely to have a number of suitors, and will also probably want an opt out after year one, maybe something little like that could help him choose Milwaukee among a sea of what are likely to be similar contract offers. Then again, maybe not. Mitch Garver signed with Seattle and he is 0-31 career at Safeco.

Most of the potential needle moving is going to be dependent on the development of Chourio, Black, Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer, Turang, Gasser, Rodriguez, Misio, etc plus whatever decision they end up making on Burnes. When was the last time the Brewers made a “needle moving” FA signing?

They really don’t seem interested in anyone under the age of 37. Offseason 40 Man/Trade Acquisitions (2024 Age) Wade Miley (37) Colin Rea (33) Taylor Clarke (31) Eric Haase (31) Joe Ross (29) Jake Bauers (28) Bryan Hudson (27) Vinny Capra (27) Oliver Dunn (26) Blake Holub (25) Chad Patrick (25) Coleman Crow (23)

I guess I’m just not seeing what’s so confusing about the Brewers offseason. The bellwether move to determine the direction of the offseason was always going to be if Burnes was traded and/or what the return was. Since that hasn’t happened yet, they’ve done what they always do, turn over a bunch of rocks around the margins of the 40 Man hoping to find a few low key MLB contributors. The majority of FA at the 1B/DH spot that is the biggest need for the Brewers are still on the market. If one requires a coherent narrative it is that they are playing the middle so they have the flexibility to pursue multiple possibilities in either direction.

These two statements seem at odds with one another. Considering how quiet things have been on the Bauer front, how sure can we really be that someone is going to sign the guy? I wouldn’t be surprised if someone signs him, but I think that someone is more likely to be the Doosan Bears or Sugar Land Space Cowboys than it is an MLB club.

Since the Yankees went back to back in 1999-2000, 16 teams have won 23 different World Series. The only teams with multiple WS wins over the last 23 years are Boston (one tainted), San Fran, St. Louis and Houston (one tainted). The Dodgers have absolutely been the most dominant organization in MLB over the last eleven years with their 1031 - 650 record almost 100 wins better than the Yankees at 940 - 740. They've only one WS win (and two WS losses) despite that dominance because the MLB postseason is largely random. Being a World Series fetishist for any team, especially one as disadvantaged by geography and economics as the Brewers, is intentionally setting oneself up for misery on purpose.

Chourio was on fire in July at 388/447/718 For August and September he hit 277/326/434 in AA/AAA. Likely those Aug/Sep numbers would have been considerably worse in MLB.

Which sports franchises (or businesses in general) operate in this now only worry about the future later manner that you would like to see the Brewers emulate?

From May 1st through the end of the season, Matt Chapman hit 205/298/361 (84 wRC+) with a 29.8% K rate. That kind of offense wouldn't have helped the Brewers very much. His defensive metrics are also in decline over the last couple years compared to earlier in his career...+78 DRS and +48 OAA over his first 4,955 innings at 3B compared to +14 DRS and +5 OAA over his last 2,558 innings at 3B. If he could be had for say something like 4/80, sure sign me up. If he comes in closer to the 5/120 predicted by FanGraphs or the 6/150 predicted by MLBTR, I think that would be a drastic overpay which would have the potential to limit the Brewers ability to spend during what will hopefully be Chourio's prime years.

They already have this, Competitive Balance Rounds awards additional picks to small markets every year, and the FA compensation rules for players with QOs favor smaller markets by awarding them higher draft picks than if the team losing the player is a tax payer.

Brewers are just moving around risk on the timeline here. Chambers is intriguing for sure, but as a teenager coming off TJ he is probably a half decade minimum from impacting any MLB team. Hudson might be a reliever only, but he is ready to potentially impact the MLB team in 2024.

Yes, it has been a slow offseason. If I counted right, 29 of MLBTR's Top 50 FAs remain unsigned. The Cubs, who were allegedly going to sign every big FA after landing Counsell, have signed nobody.

Signing a 19 year old with zero MLB service time to a record setting contract was a conservative move?

What exactly is perplexing about this move?

I don’t think Belt vs Santana is really a thing because Carlos is still an everyday 1B with a plus glove where Brandon is a strong side platoon DH at this point who can play 1B once a week. Hoskins/Brantley would be my first choice for 1B/DH in a keep Burnes scenario, but I’d be cool with Santana/Belt instead. We’ll probably end up with a Vogelbach or Ji Man Choi reunion though, especially if Burnes is dealt.

The Brewers went 35-20 from August 1st until the end of the season, 5th best in MLB. Their late season moves worked out pretty well. Who was Jackson even going to play for anyway? Not Yelich. Taylor hit for a 138 wRC+ last two months, Canha was at 120 wRC+. Frelick’s 1.4 WAR was 4th on the team from his debut until the end of the season behind Contreras, Adames and Tyrone. Any connection between the Chourio extension and Winker getting a pair of postseason PAs appears tenuous at best. Especially when everyone knows it should have been Hiura instead.

I guess I'm just not that concerned about the offense at present. Contreras, Free Agent 1B, Turang, Adames, Black, Frelick, Chourio, Mitchell, Yelich (DH) would be a majority home grown opening day lineup that should be able to improve on last years results. As a team, the Brewers posted a 92 wRC+ and -61.4 batting runs. in 2023. Sure, losing Santana (107 wRC+ | +1.9 runs) and Canha (120 wRC+ | +5.0 runs) is a small (6.9 runs) debit. But not having Rowdy (78 wRC+ | -9.5 runs), Winker (65 wRC+ | -8.4 runs), Anderson (85 wRC+ | -6.5 runs), Voit (53 wRC+ | -4.3 runs), Singleton (-8 wRC+ | -4.3 runs), Taylor (88 wRC+ | -3.8 runs), Tapia (53 wRC+ | -3.5 runs), Urias (59 wRC+ | -3.4 runs), Brosseau (74 wRC+ | -2.5 runs) or Ruf (54 wRC+ | -1.7 runs) is a much larger (47.9 runs) credit.

The Brewers went from 86 wins in 2022 to 92 wins in 2023, I’ll take another plus six win offseason. Though I guess to be fair, more like a plus four win offseason with the SantanCanha deadline accounting for a couple of those additional dubs.

October, November, December, January, February, March is a couple months a few times over. Big difference between making your MLB debut at age 19 in the pressure cooker of a do or die three game playoff series versus at age 20 on Opening Day of a brand new 162 game regular season. Just two completely different sets of stakes.

Practically every Brewers free agent signing (Hammonds, Suppan, Lohse, Garza, Cain) or big extension (2nd Braun deal, Yelich) of note has been a source of consternation among large portions of the fan base. Then much of that same fan base is upset we don’t sign more players like that when all our best moves have clearly come via player development and trade for the last decade plus. And people say the offseason is boring.