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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Chourio is obviously his own tier. I’ve got the next tier ordered as Wiemer (power potential) Frelick (highest floor) Mitchell (injury issues) I’d imagine Arnold & associates will probe different teams valuations of these three, and pounce if they find an offer they like. Perkins and Taylor are both solid 4th OF options, so I’d guess one of them is moved in a more marginal trade if the FO can’t find a bigger deal for one of the three younger prospects.- 7 replies
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- sal frelick
- tyrone taylor
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Woodruff Open to Staying with Brewers - Podcast Interview
sveumrules replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Tyler Glasonw signed in August of 2022 for 2 years and 30 million coming off 212 IP of 66 ERA- | 68 FIP- from 2019 to 2022. Woodruff has 595 IP of 69 ERA- | 72 FIP- since 2019. If the Brewers don't sign him, someone else almost assuredly will even with the knowledge he is unlikely to pitch in 2024. -
Right, teams aren't going to pay up for 7.5 fWAR Burnes from 2021 when he's been at 4.6 and 3.4 fWAR the last two seasons. His rWAR has been a little more consistent, 6.3 to 5.3 to 4.8 rWAR from 2021 to 2023. Williams has been heading the opposite (aka the good) direction, with his WPA climbing from 2.73 to 3.46 to 4.09 from 2021 to 2023. I would guess teams value Burnes around 5-6 WAR for one year versus Williams at say plus 7-8 WPA over the next two years.
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- corbin burnes
- anthony santander
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The gap in wins between the divisions is much more telling than the ordinal ranking. Especially when 5th place is 8 wins away from 4th, 34 wins away from 3rd and 58 games away from 2nd compared to 143 games away from 6th. If MLB front offices believed Counsell's credentials were propped up by the NLC to the extent you are implying they wouldn't be pursuing him (and maybe even offering something approaching industry leading compensation) in the first place.
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Division Wins Since 2018... ALE: 2290 NLW: 2218 ALW: 2194 NLE: 2168 NLC: 2160 ALC: 2017 The NL Central has been much closer competitively with the NLE (8 game difference), ALW (34 games) and even the NLW (58 games) during Counsell's tenure than it has with the AL Central (143 game difference).
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From 2018-2023 Brewers are 6th in wins in MLB, Cardinals are 9th so they've had some pretty good direct competition. Cubs were still spending big when the Brewers had their success in 2018 and 2019. Reds (22nd) and Pirates (26th) have been bad over that stretch but nothing compared to the dregs of the ALC with KCR (30th), DET (29th) and even CHW only 19th. Yet CLE is still twenty wins behind the Brewers over that stretch, the Twins are 44 wins back. If divisional strength was such a large factor you'd think CLE/MIN would be ahead of MIL/STL, but the opposite is the case.
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2018 rotation was 20th by FIP based WAR. Games Started were Jhoulys Chacin (35), Chase Anderson (30), Junior Guerra (26), Brent Suter (18), Wade Miley (16), Freddy Peralta (14) and Zach Davies (13). Luckily the defense put up +121 DRS (2nd in MLB) so their runs allowed based WAR (15th) was a little more respectable. 2019 rotation was again 20th by FIP based WAR and 16th by runs allowed based WAR. Rotation didn't break out for a full season until 2021 (2nd in both fWAR and rWAR), they regressed in 2022 (13th in both fWAR and rWAR) then bounced back somewhat this year (13th in fWAR but 4th in rWAR) but again were somewhat bailed out by the defense with +68 DRS (2nd).
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17/17 on free throws and zero turnovers. Who was the last closer they had like this? Maybe Ray? He had a 13/13 FT and 1 TO game in 2001.
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I don’t believe the tools available to attempt to judge manager performance are anywhere near good enough to say anyone is thee best or definitively Top 3. The main points in favor of Counsell being considered among the better managers in the game would be his regular season success facing a significant payroll disadvantage and the fact that he is clearly coveted within the industry. His lack of postseason success is ten games spread out over six years. Not a very reliable sample. Counting game 163, Counsell started his postseason career 7-3. Turns out those ten games had minimal predictive power over his next ten postseason games. Just like his last ten will likely have minimal predictive power over the next ten. That the Brewers have played the 8th most playoff games in MLB since 2018 speaks way more to Counsell’s perceived managerial ability, or teams wouldn’t be pursuing him and maybe offering him top level compensation in the first place.
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Yeah, the most interesting angle to the whole Counsell situation to me is that it probably will be an indicator as to which direction the offseason is more likely to head. If he's coming back, have to imagine that lowers the chances of Burnes/Adames/Williams being dealt, whereas him leaving would give Arnold a little more leeway to deal those guys and do a soft reset with a new manager.
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A grown man exercising his freedom to work where he pleases would hurt so much? I hope Counsell finds happiness no matter which decision he makes. If he chooses to manage elsewhere, I’ll look forward to Arnold getting to pick a new skipper. If he returns, cool, we keep one of the best managers in the game. I’ve got the whole thing as a win win no matter how it shakes out.
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I preferred the format with fewer teams, too, though it still kicked out it’s fair share of upsets, long shots, underdogs, didn’t even deserve to be there in the first place, whatever one wants to call them, WS Champions. That the Brewers have essentially ascended for many to the level of the Favre/Rodgers Packers, or Giannis Bucks - wake me up at the Conference Finals - is pretty remarkable all things considered. The ship sailed on the World Series pitting the two best teams against one another to crown the One True Champion a long time ago. Capitalism demands that we will only get farther away from that ideal as time goes on. I’ve accepted the amplified randomness of the postseason as an inevitability and look forward to how it specifically unfolds each autumn.
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They could expand the playoff field to seven or eight teams per league and it wouldn’t add any calendar time, just drop the bye from two to one or zero teams. Now if they did that, and switched the opening round to best of five and DS to best of seven (to help out those better 162 game teams) you’re talking four extra games, or going from what is currently a four week tournament to five weeks, still well short of two months.
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Since giving up 3 ER in his 2.2 IP vs the Brewers, Pfaadt has thrown 10 IP with 0 ER | 0 BB | 4 H | 11 K in two starts vs LAD and PHI.
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Extra funny with the road team winning every game in the ALCS is that Houston only ended up with home field dis-advantage by winning the division via tiebreaker on the last day of the regular season.
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2023 Minor League Transaction Thread
sveumrules replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Not a whole lot of out there about Roller as a 30th rounder out of Community College back in 2017, but seems like he kinda fits that Blake Perkins profile of a plus defensive CF with late developing bat. Nice depth piece that will give them a little more cushion exploring trades for Mitchell, Wiemer, Frelick, Taylor, Perkins in the offseason. -
So I guess the 161 K were meant for this most recent moment then too? Or is that not how these things work?
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The Phillies hit 275/373/565 vs ATL compared to 253/337/513 so far vs ARI. Did the Braves have no business being in the postseason either?
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Agree on pretty much all counts, @Joseph Zarr. Outside of the obvious health caveats, this season is primarily going to boil down to how much ball dominance Giannis is willing to cede over to Dame. Point Giannis needs to be relegated to after grabbing a defensive board or when he is leading the 2nd unit while Dame isn’t on the floor.
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Just watched Everything Everywhere All At Once for the first time.
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Feels like Canha’s option decision could be an indicator as to which path the Brewers offseason is more likely to take. If they pick it up, that probably tilts the odds more towards keeping Burnes/Adames for next year versus declining the option likely tipping the scales more towards dealing Burnes/Adames (and maybe Williams too while they’re at it).
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Don’t even have to squint to see the Sal Frelick comp for Luis. Guess the big differences would be switch hitter vs lefty, and then Lara being essentially three years ahead of Sal in terms of age relative to level assuming he opens next year in Wisco at age 19 vs Frelick opening there in 2022 at age 22. Even if Luis spends a whole year at each level, that would still have him in the MLB conversation around age 22.
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Terry Stotts has resigned from his role on the Bucks coaching staff. Haven’t seen an official reason given, but has to be either health/family related, didn’t want to re-commit to the daily grind at age 65 after two years off, or some kind of butting of heads with coach Griff slash maybe lingering bad blood with Dame from their Portland days? Whatever the cause, it leaves a pretty big hole in the coaching staff on the precipice of the regular season. Guessing Prunty just gets promoted to lead assistant? Also saw D’Antoni currently has an advisor role with the Pelicans, maybe a lead assistant gig with a Championship contender could entice him away?
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Looks like it's a split of 75% manager & coach voting with the other 25% coming via the Saber Defensive Index (which appears to be a mix of DRS and StatCast). Contreras had a great year behind the plate, especially in the framing department, but Moreno and Bailey were 1st/2nd in the NL for both DRS and Statcast throwing runs so it's not like they were slouches back there. JTR started 14 extra games and caught 128 more innings than even the 2nd most prolific NL catcher, and had Contreras by 22 starts and 200 innings. I have no problem with him getting the 3rd finalist spot on the quantity gap alone considering the attrition rate behind the dish.
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2018 draft had high school hitters Turang, Joe Gray Jr. and Micah Bello as the first three picks. HSHs selected between then and the most recent draft were… 2019: Darrien Miller (9th round) 2020: none 2021: Roc Riggio (11th round, didn’t sign), Quinton Low (13th round, two way player), Jace Avina (14th round) 2022; Dylan O’Rae (4th round), Luke Adams (12th round) Definitely exciting for the Brewers to land both Pratt and Bitonti as we haven’t really had teenage infield power prospects of that calibre since I don’t even really know off the top my head, Brett Lawrie maybe?
