sveumrules

Jesus Luzardo extends with the Phillies for five years and $135M... 2022-25 Luzardo (529 IP | 48th of 59 pitchers min. 500 IP) 125 K+ (6th) | 93 BB+ (41st) | 83 HR+ (15th) 94 AVG+ (15th) | 89 ERA- (26th) | 79 FIP- (8th) 9.9 rWAR (33rd) | 12.1 fWAR (18th) 2022-25 Peralta (594 IP | 32nd of 59 pitchers min. 500 IP) 129 K+ (4th) | 105 BB+ (55th) | 103 HR+ (37th) 84 AVG+ (1st) | 82 ERA- (11th) | 91 FIP- (24th) 14.1 rWAR (11th) | 10.9 fWAR (22nd)

From 2014 to 2018 Lorenzo put up 2,805 PA of 116 wRC+ with a 93 BB+ | 84 K+ | 118 AVG+ | 83 ISO+ under the hood so he got pretty much all of his value in the box from getting base hits. I think Pena probably profiles to strike out more while hitting for less average and more power. The shape of Duran and Chisolm's production is a little closer to where I think Luis might end up... 2021-25 Jarren (2,128 PA) 89 BB+ | 108 K+ | 110 AVG+ | 117 ISO+ 2021-25 Jazz (2,283 PA) 99 BB+ | 123 K+ | 102 AVG+ | 128 ISO+ For reference last two years of Chourio (also mentioned upthread) is at 1,162 PA of 71 BB+ | 94 K+ | 110 AVG+ | 123 ISO+ shaking out to a 115 wRC+ so that is kind of in that same sort of neighborhood too.

Digging a little deeper for Pena comps, there are 1,238 players with at least 500 PA in the minor leagues the last two years with Luis notching a 9.8 speed score that tops the whole dang list, so I started by looking at who the best base runners were in MLB over the last five full seasons (min. 2,000 PA) and went from there. Guys like Corbin Carroll (126 wRC+ | +35.1 BsR) or Trea Turner (125 wRC+ | +34.2 BsR) are probably pipe dreams, but a little further down are guys like Jarren Duran (113 wRC+ | +25.5 BsR) and Jazz Chisolm Jr. (112 wRC+ | +21.3 BsR) that probably offer a little better glimpse at what a more realistically achievable upside might look like for Luis. If the bat doesn't come all the way around maybe it ends up looking more like what CJ Abrams (97 wRC+ | +18.7 BsR) has done so far.

Maybe I had Soriano in my subconscious from reading the FG list, but he was the first guy that came to mind when thinking of Peña in a macro sense with his speed/power combo at the plate and glove that ended up limiting him to that 2B/LF zone.

If someone signs him for less than his current salary, that is pretty much the definition of a cap casualty isn't it? I'm not saying Gary is any great shakes, just that he is probably a lot closer to cromulence than he is to sucking. If he truly sucks he'll be out of the NFL.

24-25 Ortiz (1,017 PA | 4.5 WAR) 86 wRC+ | +2.4 BSR | +25.0 DEF 22-24 Rengifo (1,260 PA | 4.8 WAR) 111 wRC+ | +4.0 BSR | -13.7 DEF 24-25 Hamilton (511 PA | 1.8 WAR) 81 wRC+ | +8.6 BSR | +2.8 DEF 23-25 Perkins (773 PA | 3.1 WAR) 85 wRC+ | +4.3 BSR | +13.8 DEF 22-25 Mitchell (443 PA | 3.3 WAR) 114 wRC+ | +4.8 BSR | +5.2 DEF The nice thing about the group of players occupying the bottom third of the projected order is that they've combined for something like 17 or 18 wins over the last few years so they have a pretty high floor. I wouldn't be surprised if they chipped in a collective five or six wins this year depending how things shake out. Something else to keep in mind is that most teams have bad hitters in the bottom third of their lineup with league average wRC+ of 90, 83, and 79 for the seven thru nine spots in batting orders last year. At least our guys can all run the bases and are mostly top notch fielders too. If Rengifo and Ortiz bounce back with their bats, and Mitchell stays healthy (three big IFS, I know) the bottom third of the order could end up being sneaky good.

Believe Jesus wore number 12 at both Carolina and Wisconsin last year. Could always go with MADE 3:16 too.

If the Brewers viewed Adams as the better 3B option than Wilken, they probably would have had Wilken split time between 1B and 3B last year when both were in Biloxi. They way they actually did it was to have Wilken only play 3B (and DH) while Adams was the one who got reps at 1B with 39 games at first compared to only 20 at third. Maybe Wilken coming back from injury played a role in things and they didn't want to put learning 1B on his plate too, but reading between the lines it certainly appears that Wilken will get more 3B reps and Adams will get more 1B reps moving forward.

In 2023 Woodruff threw 67 IP of 53 ERA- | 82 FIP- which shook out to 2.8 rWAR | 1.4 fWAR. He made $10.8M in his final year of Arby's. The Brewers won the division by nine games. In 2024 Woodruff got paid $2.5M to rehab. The Brewers won the division by ten games. In 2025 Woodruff threw 64 IP of 77 ERA- | 77 FIP- which shook out to 1.5 rWAR | 1.8 fWAR. He made $15M between the salary and buyout. The Brewers won the division by five games. All told there an even 200 starting pitchers with at least 130 IP from 2023 to 2025. Among those pitchers some of Brandon's ranks are... 131.2 IP (198th) | 64 ERA- (7th) | 79 FIP- (20th) | 139 K+ (8th) | 67 BB+ (25th) | 103 HR+ (98th) | 73 AVG+ (1st) | 66 WHIP+ (1st) | 4.3 rWAR (90th) | 3.2 fWAR (112th) The guy one spot below him on that rWAR leaderboard in Edward Cabrera at 4.2 rWAR who the Cubs just surrendered a pretty decent prospect outlay to acquire. The guy one spot ahead of him on that leaderboard is Shane Bieber (tied with 4.3 rWAR) who signed for 2/$25M with the Blue Jays during the same offseason that Woodruff signed his 2/$17.5M. With a scantily healthy Woodruff the Brewers have cruised to three division titles and the 2nd most wins in MLB the last three years. If they can get 120 to 130 regular season IP from him with similarly elite rates as he has posted the last three years, plus manage his health so he can throw in the postseason...2026 will be another fun summer with a chance to see what happens in the fall.

The 4/35 remaining on Ashby's contract is a bargain for a leverage reliever. There are 204 pitchers with at least 70 IP out of the bullpen the last two years, Aaron's ranks are... 49 ERA- (4th) | 57 FIP- (5th) | 28 HR9+ (7th) | 142 GB+ (8th) | 135 K+ (23rd) Even his walk rate, which posters complain about regularly, is better than average with a 96 BB+ (76th). Devin Williams (96 ERA- | 60 FIP- last two years) just got 3/51 coming off a dumpster fire season Edwin Diaz (62 ERA- | 65 FIP- last two years) got 3/69 Robert Suarez (72 ERA- | 79 FIP- last two years) got 3/45 Tyler Rogers (59 ERA- | 81 FIP- last two years) got 3/37 Ryan Helsley (78 ERA- | 80 FIP- last two years) got 2/28 Luke Weaver (80 ERA- | 85 FIP- last two years) got 2/22 Brad Keller (71 ERA- | 90 FIP- last two years) got 2/22 Emilio Pagan (79 ERA- | 87 FIP- last two years) got 2/20 Kyle Finnegan (86 ERA- | 90 FIP- last two years) got 2/19 Raisel Iglesias (61 ERA- | 74 FIP- last two years) got $16M for his age 36 season. Ashby is also headed into his Age 28 season while all the FA relievers above are already in their thirties.

Believe so. Feel like I remember him sneaking on towards the back end of a couple Top Hundreds but never inside the Top 50.

Brewers well represented in another projection based ranking with ten guys in the OOPSY Top 100 at FanGraphs today… Made (#15) Jett (#23) Pratt (#27) Pena (#30) Lara (#35) Henderson (#71) Crow (#81) Quero (#89) Sproat (#90) Gasser (#93)

Hold the Mayo for me personally. Very unlikely he is a third baseman in MLB and with guys like Adams, Burke, Wilken, Fischer already in the potential future 1B/DH pool I wouldn't necessarily focus on adding more to that mix at the expense of leverage innings over the next two years. This was a pretty informative read on Coby from back in September of last year. Between the brutal defense and swing I was getting some Hiura flashbacks. At the time of publication Mayo had 239 PA of 184/259/327 (66 wRC+) on his 2025 ledger with an 8.4 BB% and 29.7 K%, but followed up the article with a scorching 55 PA of 370/473/674 (220 wRC+) plus a 12.7 BB% and 23.6 K% to end the year. The Orioles bought into his season ending hot streak so much that they went out and signed Alonso for 5/$155M. Between Pete, whichever of Adley and Basallo (who got an 8/$67M contract of his own one week into his MLB career) isn't catching, plus Ryan Mountcastle in the mix it looks like Coby is ticketed for his 4th stint with Norfolk (where he already has 852 PA) to start 2026.

The projection based ZiPS Top 100 Prospects was published at FanGraphs today and it has TEN Brewers in the Top 100 (most in MLB)... Made (#8) Jett (#29) Pratt (#39) Pena (#51) Adams (#68) Bitonti (#71) Letson (#76) Sproat (#81) Quero (#89) Payne (#90) Article also has a chart with the total number of players each org has in the Top 200 and Top 500 per the ZiPS mainframe with the Brewers coming in with thirteen T200 guys and twenty six T500 guys (both of which were 2nd in MLB).

I've seen this idea posted elsewhere on the internet, and I think there are a decent number of fans (& players too I guess) who honestly seem to believe it. Could lower payroll teams spend more than they do? Certainly. But even if every team in the league had the financial capability to spend like the Dodgers (they don't) all that would mean is a bunch of players getting obscenely overpriced contracts because there aren't enough legit superstars and all star calibre players to warrant that kind of spending. Using the current OD payroll projections on Cots and assuming even a measly $125M salary floor would leave ten teams needing to spend something like a combined $305M to get there. Machado's own Padres are a great example of the limitations of smaller markets trying to spend (& trading many of their prospects) to hang with the Big Boys. They've had a nice run with their 433 wins since 2021 ranking 10th in MLB (Brewers 463 wins are 3rd over the same stretch) but now that Papa Seidler passed and the kids don't want to spend as freely they are more of a Top 10 kind of payroll instead of the Top three to five payroll they were running at peak in 2022/23 and are left with one of the weaker farm systems in the game paired with a patchwork MLB roster around a mostly aged & expensive core of Machado (33 yo with 8/$266M remaining), Bogaerts (33 yo with 8/$200M remaining), Michael King (31 yo with 3/$75M remaining), Nick Pivetta (33 yo with $19M plus two player options worth $32M remaining), Joe Musgrove (33 yo with 2/$40M remaining), and Jake Cronenworth (32 yo with 5/$60M remaining). The Merrill extension was good, and Tatis is still a bargain at $70M over the next three years but the last $216M covering his age 30 to 35 seasons could become a little more onerous down the road when pushing forty Xander and Manny are already making $60M combined most of those same years.

Great Minds Post Alike...or something

FanGraphs Top 110 Prospects dropped today. They deviated from the Griffin / McGonigle / Made near consensus 1-2-3 and have Griffin / Made / McLean / Basallo / McGonigle as the Top Five. Brewers represented besides Jesus at #2 include Pena (#24), Sproat (#37), Jett (#75), Quero (#76), and Henderson (#88). Another fun feature, if you scroll down to each player's capsule there is an expand tab which reveals their best attempt at a probability outcome graph for that prospect.

Their bottom line results ended up close last year (2.6 WAR each on FanGraphs) but there's a big difference in future value between 28 year old Collins as pretty much a LF only guy at this point, versus Durbin who is two and a half years younger and can play either of 3B or 2B.

Yeah, third base isn't "Third Base" anymore. The weasel has gone pop, as it were. From 2012 to 2022 the league average wRC+ ranged between 100 and 107 for third basemen, with seven of those eleven seasons at 105 or higher. The last three years? 96, 97 and 96 wRC+ at the not so hot corner. That's more like a steroid era second baseman than the chiseled Third Basemen of our mind's eye.

The punchless Brewers offense scored the third most runs in baseball last year, in 2024 they scored the sixth most runs in MLB. Last two years their 343 home runs are 20th, their .150 isolated slugging is 22nd, and their 1,583 runs scored are 4th in MLB. Hitting home runs is one way to score runs, having a bunch of really fast guys (+34.9 BsR is 1st in MLB last two years) on base all the time (.329 OBP is 4th in MLB last two years) putting a ton of pressure on the pitcher and defense (3,427 PA with RISP are 1st in MLB last two years) is another way.

Burger has -16 DRS | -15 FRV for his career at 3B, I don't think the Brewers would consider that up to snuff with how much they prioritize defense. His 5.1% walk rate is also a bottom dozen mark in MLB since 2022, where the Brewers (9.5 BB% is 3rd in MLB since 2022) typically tend to go for hitters with more patience in their profile.

From 2022 to 2024 he had a pretty good hit tool with a 112 AVG+ and 72 K+ that were both among the Top Forty or so in MLB plus average-ish power with a 102 ISO+. That all backed up big time last year though with a 97 AVG+ | 85 K+ | 60 ISO+. He's also never walked (72 BB+ last four years) and has put up negative fielding metrics all around the infield with -4 DRS | -7 FRV at second, -5 DRS | -10 FRV at short, and -6 DRS | -14 FRV at third for his career. Even if the bat bounced back, not sure the glove is a fit with the Brewers run prevention emphasis.

Who believed the 2025 Brewers were better than the 2024 Brewers before pitchers and catchers had even reported to Maryvale? Here is the 2025 Season Win Prediction thread, the overwhelming majority of the posters saw them regressing from the 93 wins they posted in 2024.

Note to self, check back on this thread September 28th 2026.

Monasterio, Seigler and Hamilton are backup infielder potpourri so the trade essentially boils down to... exchanging Durbin's higher established floor for the potentially higher ceiling of Harrison... and flipping the total uncertainty of the Comp B pick that will be at minimum a couple two tree years timeline to MLB even if it were a college pick for Drohan who at first glance looks like SP depth / possible long relief option for this year.