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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    "If you go three for 38 with RISP over a four game stretch, and still win all four games...you might be a pretty good baseball team." -Jeff Foxworthy, probably.
  2. sveumrules
    The nice thing about having such a deep and good team is Turang can go on a thirty game bender and they still go 20 W - 10 L over that stretch anyway.
  3. sveumrules
    In 2019, when the Brewers had the eventual World Series Champions four outs from elimination in the Wild Card Game, their seasonal run differential was +3. During the Brewers recent three game sweep of the Reds their run differential was +4. In the 2017 and 2022 seasons where the Brewers just missed the playoffs with 86 wins, their seasonal run differentials were +35 and +37. Over the 26 games in May of this year when the Brewers went 19 W - 7 they had a +36 run differential. During the 2018, 2021, and 2023 Division Championship seasons the Brewers had seasonal run differentials of +95, +115, and +81. Over their last 52 games the 2026 Brewers have an MLB best 36 W - 16 L record with a +109 run differential.
  4. sveumrules
    Base running is definitely a big part of it, the Brewers +43.1 BsR is best in MLB since 2023. There is the old joke about home runs being rally killers, but I think the Brewers have somewhat taken that to heart and are testing the bounds of the theory somewhat. Since 2023 their .327 OBP is 2nd in MLB, but their 578 HR and .147 isolated slugging are both 25th. They've scored the 6th most runs in MLB anyway. High OBP + low Power = 5,874 PA with RISP since 2023 (most in MLB) hitting for a 117 wRC+ with RISP (2nd) ending up with 2,116 runs scored with RISP (1st). Their overall 44.8 Swing% is also lowest in MLB since 2023. So in the macro you've got a bunch of good base runners, frequently on base, who rarely swing, but few XBH to move them multiple bases at a time, all combining to put a bunch of pressure on opposing pitching staffs. They might not crack every time, but with the Brewers posting a 331 W - 233 L record since 2023 (2nd best in MLB) it has worked 58.7% of the time anyway (or an MLB best 60.8% of the time since the start of last year).
  5. sveumrules
    Yeah, sequencing is just the order that outcomes occur. For instance, a team has a walk, single, double, and home run in an inning. How many runs did they score? Could be anywhere from one to four depending on the order of those four events. Runs per game credits you with however many runs you actually scored, easy. BaseRuns assigns each outcome an average run value based on that season's offensive environment, then uses those values to estimate how many runs a team should have scored (or allowed on the pitching side). The general idea is that teams exert minimal control over their sequencing, so if a team is scoring above their BaseRuns estimate they are probably due for some regression, whereas if they are below their BaseRuns estimate they could be due for some upcoming positive fortune. But much like the Brewers have proven they can "create their own luck" on the run prevention side with a 4.02 FIP but a 3.62 ERA since 2023, they are also starting to look like they've maybe figured out how to "create their own luck" on the hitting side too scoring +0.40 R/G over their BaseRuns estimate so far this year, and +0.20 R/G over their BaseRuns estimate for their last 564 games going back to 2023.
  6. sveumrules
    Right, prospect rankings vary across platforms, that's why it's best to look at each individual player's specific skillset and how that might fit within the larger context of organizational strengths and weaknesses. Some veteran players available at the deadline are worth the prospects, some aren't. I personally don't believe that Paredes is worth Adamczewski/Hardin. Guess all we can really do is wait to see if the Astros end up trading Paredes before the deadline, what kind of return they get if they do, and how that return compares to Brewers farmhands if it isn't the Brewers they trade him to.
  7. sveumrules
    The Brewers have one of the deepest systems in all of MLB, so not being among the Brewers top echelon doesn't necessarily make them any less valuable. There are 1,002 hitters in all of the minor leagues with at least 700 PA going back to 2024 when Adamczewski debuted. His 157 wRC+ is 2nd on that leaderboard, just ahead of Luke Adams (currently #13 on the BF Top 20) in 3rd with a 155 wRC+. Kevin McGonigle (167 wRC+) is in the #1 spot. In 2025 Hardin was one of 415 pitchers with at least 90 IP in the minor leagues. His 2.35 FIP was 3rd on the leaderboard, his 5.65 K/BB ratio was 5th. Since being promoted to Nashville this year he is one of 84 pitchers in the International League with at least 40 IP. His 3.39 FIP again comes in 3rd, while his 3.42 K/BB ratio again comes in 5th. His 2.25 ERA is 4th, his 0.95 WHIP is 3rd, his .183 average against is 5th. Adamczewski might be the best pure hitter in the system, Hardin is certainly the most MLB ready SP option in the system, I wouldn't be looking to deal either of them for 1.5 years of one dimensional Paredes. Looking at the current rankings here my best offer for Paredes would probably be Blake Burke (#10) plus whoever they like best among Coleman Crow (#16), Jaron DeBerry (#19) or JD Thompson (#20).
  8. sveumrules
    For all their holes they are tied with the Dodgers for second at 5.22 R/G, their 3.64 RA/G is third just fractions behind the Yankees (3.63 RA/G), and their +123 run differential is second in all of MLB. Even stripping out sequencing (which is probably a bad idea since the Brewers have the best pitching and hitting with RISP in MLB going back to 2023) and their +96 BaseRuns differential is third in MLB. The Dodgers undoubtedly have the fewest holes, then its the Brewers, Yankees, and Braves in some order, then it's the other 26 teams. Fifth best run differential in MLB is currently the Cubs at +36 missing an entire rotation, fifth best BaseRuns differential is the Braves at +59. BaseRuns actually likes the Pirates (+61) slightly more than the Braves so far this year, but their sequencing neutral model is definitely overselling a PIT team that has a 3.87 FIP (6th) but a 4.12 ERA (14th) and 4.76 RA/G (21st) largely on account of a defense (-15 FRV | 26th) that limits their ability to strand runners (68.6 LOB% | 28th).
  9. sveumrules
    Brewers are 20 W - 9 L when Misio or Harrison pitch, which leaves a 29 W - 20 L record (.592 W%) when our three through nine starters & two openers have started games. The Rays are currently fifth in MLB with a .571 W%.
  10. sveumrules
    Believe the latest update in the injury thread was that he was dealing with a shoulder impingement, currently on a throwing program, and hoping to get back behind the plate once everything is fully rehabbed. But yeah, larger point is that Dinges has an injury history that makes it unlikely he’ll be a 100 game per year MLB catcher. Even if he “only” ends up as a 50/60 game catcher that can DH against LHP that’s still a solid prospect & would be a good outcome nonetheless.
  11. sveumrules
    Getting pretty close to the halfway point here and there are a few different ways one could slice up the season based on how things have played out thus far. Unsustainably fun 8 W - 2 L start, followed by the immediate regression of the 5 W - 11 L stretch dropping them back to .500 after 26 games, now in the midst of an MLB best 35 W - 16 L run since then. One I thought was interesting was after 33 games thru May 3rd with neither Chourio nor Vaughn plus limited Yelich they averaged 5.21 R/G (4th) despite a below average 95 wRC+ (21st). Over the 44 games since May 4th with Chourio and Vaughn back in the fold the Brewers have averaged 5.20 R/G (3rd) in a much more earned fashion with a 111 wRC+ (4th) over that stretch. Also thought it was interesting how streaky the Brewers have been (in a good way). So far they have had streaks of W3 (x7), W4 (x4), W5, L6, L4, and L3 for a record of 42 W - 13 L (.764 W%) when streaking versus 6 W - 16 L in their other games. Those 55 games streaking represents 71.4% of the schedule so far. I think we'd all agree last year's Brewers team was streakier than average, mostly in a good way also. By my count they were at L4 (x2), L3 (x6), W3 (x8), W4 (x3), W8, W11, and W14 for 95 of their 162 games streaking (58.6%) with a record of 69 W - 26 L (.726 W%) when streaking versus 28 W - 36 L in their other games.
  12. sveumrules
    So entering the draft, If I've got this all right the Bucks current roster and pick situation is... Tyler Herro $33M then UFA (extension eligible?) Myles Turner 3/$84M Koooooooooz $20.5M then UFA AJ Green 4/$45M then UFA Jakucionis 3/$14M then RFA Kel'el Ware 2/$12M then RFA Ryan Rollins 2/$8M then UFA Jaime Jacquez Jr $6M then RFA (extension eligible?) Gary Harris $3.8M player option exercised Ousmane Dieng Restricted Free Agent Damian Lillard $22.5M through 2029-30 PENDING PLAYER OPTIONS KPJ ($5.4M, extension candidate?), Trent Jr ($3.9M), Prince ($3.9M), Sims ($2.8M) There is also Pete Nance at $2.5M though I believe that is only partially guaranteed, plus Jackson Jr on a $2.4M team option that I'd guess won't be exercised. Picks are #10 and #13 tonight and I believe future firsts now stand at 2027 (no FRP) 2028 (FRP swap) 2029 (no FRP) 2030 (FRP swap) 2031 (our FRP and Heat FRP) 2032 (our FRP) 2033 (our FRP and Heat FRP). No kind of salary cap expert, but I believe they also have a $25.5M trade exception to work with, plus maybe some kind of mid-level / room exception, or potentially just good old fashioned cap space? Rollins / Herro / Green / KPJ ??? / Jakucionis (guards) Jacquez Jr / Dieng (forwards) Turner / Ware (centers) plus whoever they draft at #10 and #13 tonight gives you at least ten or eleven players with varying combinations of capability and intrigue on the roster next year for Jenkins to work with (barring whatever other moves Horst is working on).
  13. sveumrules
    4.2 IP | 4 H | 3 ER | 3 BB | 5 K | 1 HBP With the Brewers going 7 W - 5 L in Brandon's twelve starts so far, that line should give them something like a 58.3% chance at victory tonight. Though that is a touch below their .611 W% on the road so far this year, and their .652 W% versus LH starters, not to mention their current 1.000 W% against the Reds. On second thought, looks like they are due for regression all across the board so better call it a coin flip.
  14. sveumrules
    Since last year, Brandon Woodruff is now one of 160 starting pitchers with at least 100 IP. Some of his ranks... 100 IP (160th) | 70 WHIP+ (1st) | 137 FB+ (2nd) | 218 K/BB+ (3rd) | 78 AVG+ (4th) | 135 K+ (11th) | 62 BB+ (13th) | 77 FIP- (22nd) | 75 ERA- (27th) | 101 HR9+ (77th) The Brewers have gone 15 W - 4 L for a .789 W% in his nineteen starts.
  15. sveumrules
    The Brewers lost Hader, Stearns, Counsell, Burnes, Williams, Adames, and Peralta leading up to and during Murphy’s tenure. It’s clear the arrow is pointing up now two plus years later but there was far less certainty at the outset they’d be able to survive so many losses.
  16. sveumrules
    Right. Murphy has managed better teams to more success than Counsell managed his teams to, so not all that similar in multiple regards.
  17. sveumrules
    Peak Counsell from 2018 to 2023 went 487 W - 384 L for a .559 W% that was 6th in MLB over those years. The Brewers scored 3,961 runs (14th) and allowed 3,647 runs (6th) for a +314 run differential, or +0.36 runs per game. Since Murhpy took over the Brewers are 235 W - 163 L for a .590 W% that is currently 2nd in MLB since 2024. The Brewers have scored 1,971 runs (4th) and allowed 1,549 runs (1st) for a +422 run differential, or +1.06 runs per game. Murphy's Brewers are +108 on run differential in 473 fewer games than Peak Counsell Brewers. I'd say that's considerably greater success.
  18. sveumrules
    If the Brewers lose today it will be their first losing streak of three or more games since dropping four in a row from April 22nd to April 25th which left them sitting at 13 W - 13 L for the season. Since then, their 32 W - 15 L record is the best in MLB, 1.5 games ahead of the Phillies at 31 W - 17 L over that same stretch. During this current 47 game run with the best record in MLB the Brewers have lost back to back games four times, but followed with a win in the third game after each of those four instances. Some of their league best stats during these last 47 games (2nd in Parentheses)... PITCHERS 3.34 RA/G (3.38 LAD) 3.14 ERA (3.32 LAD) 3.06 xERA (3.44 PHI) 3.36 FIP (3.58 PHI) 3.37 SIERA (3.39 PHI) 28.1 K% (25.6 PHI) 33.9 HardHit% (34.9 TBR) 5.8 Barrel% (6.3 NYY) 103.1 EV90 (103.4 ATL) +60.55 RE24 (+49.69 LAD) 10.2 rWAR (9.8 LAD) 8.6 fWAR (7.6 PHI) HITTERS 5.49 R/G (5.31 WAS) +45.36 RE24 (+39.47 NYY) 551 PA w/RISP (538 PIT) 203 R w/RISP (185 LAD)
  19. sveumrules
    I guess for me when trying to suss out those last few spots I saw two guys, one who is just starting to get some of that vaunted Industry Hype to justify their Island/Complex level performance, and the other who has matched that performance on the surface, while being farther up the defensive spectrum, with better underlying secondary skills across the board (even if they aren't quite as young and projectable) and it was hard to vote for one and not the other.
  20. sveumrules
    Pretty wild the discrepancy in votes between Frias and Juan Martinez too... 2025-26 Juan Martinez (312 PA) 337/452/558 (153 wRC+) 15.1 BB% | 11.2 K% .373 BABIP | .221 ISO 43 SB / 3 CS 2025-26 Alexander Frias (245 PA) 383/469/555 (157 wRC+) 12.2 BB% | 17.7 K% .460 BABIP | .172 ISO 19 SB / 9 CS Advantages Frias - hotter right now - younger - taller, more projectable Advantages Martinez - plate discipline - base running - isn't limited to corner outfield - better ISO - hasn't needed to run a .460 BABIP to get to his numbers
  21. sveumrules
    Interesting to see JD Thompson make it over Josh Knoth. Knoth is two years younger, currently healthy, and has much better results (in admittedly small samples for both) at the same level this year.
  22. sveumrules
    Jesus MadeLuis PenaCooper PrattLuis LaraJosh AdamczewskiBraylon PayneTyson HardinJett WilliamsJeferson QueroAndrew FischerBlake BurkeMarco DingesLuke AdamsCraig YohoBishop LetsonJosh KnothDylan O'RaeBrady EbelAlexander FriasJuan Martinez Not too much change from the May ballot. Henderson, Drohan, and Gasser graduating (plus Crow going on the IL) opened up four spots for me to get Luke Adams back on the list plus add in Ebel, Frias, and Martinez at the end. Beyond that mostly just reorganized my preferences a little in that #3 to #13 position player tier. Gave Hardin the biggest jump from #18 to #7 because I value proximity and it looks like he is probably the last intriguing SP option in Nashville that we have yet to see so far this year.
  23. sveumrules
    Sal was at 199 PA of 214/284/295 (62 wRC+) with an 8.5 BB% and 10.6 K% through the end of May. Since June Sal is hitting 310/396/405 (130 wRC+) with a 12.5 BB% and 8.3 K% over 48 PA. Small sample for sure, but don't see the Brewers optioning Sal when he is showing some signs of life.
  24. sveumrules
    Tonight will be Perkins 7th start (out of 36 total games, and 11 against LH starters) since coming back for Lockridge's injury. So far they are 5 W - 1 L in the six games he started so hard to say he has really cost them much over this stretch where he hasn't even started every game against LHP. His 36 PA are 13th on the team since his recall. Their 24 W - 11 L record is the best in MLB since that date also. By almost single handedly beating Sanchez the other day he's probably had a more outsized positive impact than just about any other team's 13th guy over these last five weeks or so since he's been back.
  25. sveumrules
    In both the recent term, and in the entirety of their time together on the Brewers, Sal has better actual statistics and production than Vaughn does against RHP.
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