sveumrules

BRef says there were 4,172 PA and 2,935 RBI with the bases loaded this year. That shakes out to an average of 0.70 RBI per PA, so your assumption is over double the league average in 2025.

Peak Youkilis was at 144 BB+ | 111 AVG+ | 145 ISO+ for a 140 wRC+ over 2,786 PA from 2007 to 2011. Like you mention that average is way above what Adams is likely to ever achieve so that knocks a ton of value off right away. I also don't think Adams will get quite up to a 145 ISO+ like Youk did, that would be a Top 20 mark over the last three years (min. 1000 PA) just below guys like Corbin Carroll and Rafael Devers. I'm thinking Adams comes in closer to 140's for BB+, 90's for AVG+, and 120's for ISO+.

My starting point for comping Adams would be to see who walks a ton, but isn't a superstar like Judge, Soto, Ohtani and go from there. Out of 229 hitters with at least 1,000 PA from 2023-25 Happ comes in with a 155 BB+ ranking 10th on the leaderboard, so that is definitely a good start. Going off that same leaderboard, here are some other guys who will take their walks but aren't necessarily elite hitters that might provide a range of potential outcomes for Luke as a hitter... Max Muncy (127 wRC+) 179 BB+ | 91 AVG+ | 156 ISO+ LaMonte Wade Jr (106 wRC+) 166 BB+ | 96 AVG+ | 81 ISO+ Trent Grisham (107 wRC+) 157 BB+ | 87 AVG+ | 119 ISO+ Ian Happ (118 wRC+) 155 BB+ | 99 AVG+ | 117 ISO+ Joc Pederson (117 wRC+) 146 BB+ | 95 AVG+ | 120 ISO+ Mitch Garver (105 wRC+) 145 BB+ | 88 AVG+ | 112 ISO+ JJ Bleday (105 wRC+) 137 BB+ | 92 AVG+ | 117 ISO+ Matt Chapman (116 wRC+) 133 BB+ | 97 AVG+ | 126 ISO+ Willy Adames (108 wRC+) 131 BB+ | 93 AVG+ | 125 ISO+

Collins posted a 73 wRC+ and 0.0 WAR over his last 120 PA to close the season, that’s a couple cliffs down from the 141 wRC+ and 2.6 WAR he posted over his first 321 PA of the year.

Shortstop was the worst position on the roster, so it theoretically should be the easiest to upgrade, but I'm not sure I'm seeing many guys among these thirty three with at least 200 PA playing SS this past year who are going to be realistically available for the Brewers. Someone like Zach Neto (116 wRC+ | 3.2 WAR) is probably taking up the most space in the "good player / bad team" overlap, but the Angels are delusional. They'd probably ask for Chourio and Misio. If the Rangers are truly tearing it down (& the Brewers aren't part of his limited no trade protection) I'd be interested in Corey Seager, but not sure paying $186M plus prospect capital for the age 32 to 37 seasons of a SS (maybe future 3B) is in the Brewers MO.

Out of one hundred eleven players with at least 200 PA in the outfield this year Collins came in at 123 wRC+ (24th) and and 2.5 WAR (32nd). Obviously he has fallen out of the lineup after fading down the stretch (120 PA of 73 wRC+ | 0.0 WAR to close the season), and there is a very real chance this was his career year as an older prospect who kind of came out of nowhere. That said, looking at the guys above him in wRC+ or WAR on that leaderboard and I'm not seeing too many trade targets. Would perennial rebuilders MIA ship out Kyle Stowers (154 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR) or Jakob Marsee (133 wRC+ | 2.1 WAR) after going 54 W - 42 L (third best record in the NL) from June 13th thru the end of the season? How about TEX dealing Wyatt Langford (118 wRC+ | 4.1 WAR) if they want to tear it down so soon after flying that flag forever? Maybe BOS would move one of Jarren Duran (111 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR) or Wilyer Abreu (119 wRC+ | 2.8 WAR) with Roman Anthony (133 wRC+ | 2.0 WAR) and Cedanne Rafaela (109 wRC+ | 4.6 WAR) also in the fold? Are any of those guys realistically acquirable without giving up Jesus Made? Say a package of Luis Pena or Cooper Pratt / plus Logan Henderson / then Marco Dinges / and maybe even more?

Durbin (101 wRC+ | 2.3 WAR) was one of only eleven players to put up at least 2.0 WAR while playing third base this year. Of the nine guys above him on the leaderboard I would guess that Jose Ramirez (132 wRC+ | 5.5 WAR), Maikel Garcia (117 wRC+ | 4.9 WAR), Junior Caminero (126 wRC+ | 4.2 WAR), Manny Machado (126 wRC+ | 3.8 WAR), Matt Chapman (118 wRC+ | 3.7 WAR), Max Muncy (140 wRC+ | 3.0 WAR), and Isaac Paredes (135 wRC+ | 2.6 WAR) aren't going anywhere. Eugenio Suarez (124 wRC+ | 3.8 WAR) and Alex Bregman (125 wRC+ | 3.5 WAR) are the free agent options.

Yeah, like PCA had a great age 20 season hitting 312/376/520 (146 wRC+) against pitchers a year or two older than him on average between A/A+. When Chourio was 20 he was hitting 275/327/464 (118 wRC+) against MLB pitchers who were eight years older than him on average. One of those is considerably more impressive than the other. In the 79 seasons since MLB integrated there have been just 47 players to reach at least 1,000 PA thru their age 21 season like Jackson has. Move that age limit up to 23 for PCA and the player pool blows up to 333 guys.

Barring a miraculous return and some postseason heroics, I think the lat injury likely torpedoed Woodruff's chances at a multi year deal. I'd guess the mutual option gets declined and Woody comes back on a one year deal, likely with some kind of option or another tacked on at the end again.

Was surprised by the pitch selection to Chourio after he was down 0-2. Thought for sure that Palencia would at least waste a couple sliders trying to get Jackson chasing before coming back anywhere near the strike zone.

Their minor league numbers are increasingly irrelevant when they both have over 1,000 PA against MLB pitching (& one guy was facing much more age appropriate competition on his way up). PCA has hit 240/285/437 (98 wRC+) with a 4.9 BB% and 24.2 K% in MLB. Chourio has hit 272/317/483 (115 wRC+) with a 5.9 BB% and 20.8 K%. Age, scouting reports, batted ball profiles and MLB performance all lead me to believe Jackson has a higher offensive upside than PCA.

PCA has more WAR than Chourio so far because he is a better defender yes, Chourio will likely accrue more WAR going forward because he is two years younger, is already a better hitter, and possesses more offensive upside. One of the main riffs on WAR is that "defense and offense count the same" which is true, they each get one column in the formula. At the same time, this last year on BRef the range in qualified player fielding values went from +22 down to -23, but batting values ranged from +82 down to -24 so there is a lot more room for Chourio to make headway than there is for PCA, whose fielding is pretty much already maxed out.

Yeah, 179 singles for Jackson versus only 133 for Crow-Armstrong is a huge drag on PCA's offense. Chourio's 110 AVG+ puts him inside the Top 50 hitters since 2023 (min. 1000 PA) versus a 97 AVG+ for PCA that places him around 175th on that same list. Jackson also has a much more well balanced batted ball profile... 96 LD+ | 106 GB+ | 95 FB+ | 88 Pull+ | 113 Center+ | 101 Oppo+ ...compared to PCA who is trying to lift and pull everything... 97 LD+ | 79 GB+ | 129 FB+ | 120 Pull+ | 85 Cent+ | 88 Oppo+

The Brewers went 4 W - 1 L in the five games they used an opener for Priester this year.

Getting to be that time of year that we'll start seeing some new prospect reports, lists, rankings, et cetera being released. Looks like FanGraphs updated their Top 100 heading into the offseason... #2 Jesus Made (65 FV) #29 Luis Pena (50 FV) #56 Cooper Pratt (50 FV) #89 Jeferson Quero (50 FV) #90 Logan Henderson (50 FV)

Contreras has a $12M option for 2026, then his third and final year of Arby's in 2027 after which he will be heading into free agency as a 30 year old. Assuming the option is picked up, then say $18M for his final year of Arby's, then five free agent years at $24M each (current record AAV for a catcher is $23.1M) throw in a $2M signing bonus and you'd be at 6/140 in new money. That would tie him with Will Smith for the third highest total value for a catcher contract behind Posey ($167M) and Mauer ($184M), and give him a new record AAV for a catcher. Mark A can definitely afford it, just a matter of how much sense it makes for Milwaukee to invest so much of their limited payroll space in a catcher and how interested Contreras is in extending before FA.

Yes, Manny Rodriguez 29 postseason HR are most all time, two ahead of Jose Altuve with 27. That was #12 for Machado.

Bichette is going to be trying to get more money than Adames did this past offseason. If the Brewers were prepared to pay free agent prices for a SS I think they would have just stuck with the guy they were already familiar with. Adames 2021-25 3,184 PA | 110 wRC+ | 19.8 WAR 121 BB+ | 118 K+ | 96 AVG+ | 129 ISO+ 0 DRS | +21 FRV Bichette 2021-25 2,952 PA | 121 wRC+ | 17.7 WAR 69 BB+ | 84 K+ | 120 AVG+ | 104 ISO+ -24 DRS | -23 FRV Also questionable how much of a shortstop Bichette will truly be moving forward with those defensive metrics.

Based on how everybody hit in each of the various line up spots this year best batting order would be… #1 Frelick (265 PA of 136 wRC+) #2 Contreras (172 PA of 127 wRC+) #3 Yelich (336 PA of 120 wRC+) #4 Chourio (42 PA of 219 wRC+) #5 Vaughn (131 PA of 157 wRC+) #6 Collins or Bauers (133 PA of 124 wRC+) (38 PA of 126 wRC+) #7 Turang (102 PA of 171 wRC+) #8 Durbin (190 PA of 122 wRC+) #9 Ortiz or Mona (339 PA of 88 wRC+) (62 PA of 177 wRC+) Couple random notes about league average wRC+ and batting order positions… - lineup construction has shifted to the point that over the last three seasons lead off hitters (111, 109 & 110 league average wRC+) have slightly better results than clean up hitters (108, 106 & 108 league average wRC+). - league average #9 hitter had a 79 wRC+ this year, so Joey was actually better than average when batting ninth. His seasonal wRC+ was dragged down by abysmal results in other lineup spots…27 wRC+ batting 8th, -49 wRC+ batting 7th, 68 wRC+ batting 6th.

Yeah, feel like the Rays and Indians were always kind of the small market models we were chasing and its funny how close they all are from a couple different end points... Wins since 2007 TBR (1,589 | 5th) MIL (1,569 | 7th) CLE (1,560 | 8th) Wins since 2016 CLE (843 | 4th) MIL (836 | 5th) TBR (816 | 8th) These last couple two tree years since Arnold took over and the position player development / procurement has finally caught up to the pitching side is when I feel like we kind of took over the small market mantle... Wins since 2023 MIL (282 | 2nd) | CLE (256 | t-13th) | TBR (256 | t-13th) Of course the other big separator has been postseason success with the Rays making two World Series and going 28 W - 36 L in nine postseasons since 2008, the Guardians making one World Series and going 26 W - 28 L in eight postseasons since 2007, versus the Brewers still waiting for a World Series return and only a 14 W - 23 L record in eight postseasons since 2008. If we slide it up to 2018 the Brewers and Guardians have matching 8 W - 14 L postseason records compared to 15 W - 19 L for TBR. Pretty much the only thing left to do is finally beat those World Series Odds the same way we've been beating the regular season ones.

2025 regular season is a wrap so thought I'd give this thread a bump with this year's results and the updated totals for the nine full seasons in the FGPO database. Format is TEAM (projected 2025 wins | actual 2025 wins | difference) nine season total... MIL (81 | 97 | +16) +87 TOR (83 | 94 | +11) -19 CLE (79 | 88 | +9) +33 CHC (83 | 92 | +9) +5 MIA (70 | 79 | +9) -31 NYY (86 | 94 | +8) +33 PHI (88 | 96 | +8) +25 SDP (82 | 90 | +8) -23 SEA (85 | 90 | +5) +41 CIN (78 | 83 | +5) -5 BOS (85 | 89 | +4) +11 DET (83 | 87 | +4) -39 HOU (84 | 87 | +3) +41 SFG (81 | 81 | 0) -9 ATH (76 | 76 | 0) -9 KCR (82 | 82 | 0) -37 STL (79 | 78 | -1) +8 TEX (84 | 81 | -3) -7 NYM (86 | 83 | -3) -39 CHW (63 | 60 | -3) -53 LAA (75 | 72 | -3) -70 LAD (98 | 93 | -5) +49 TBR (82 | 77 | -5) +33 ARI (86 | 80 | -6) +6 WAS (72 | 66 | -6) -25 PIT (78 | 71 | -7) -21 BAL (83 | 75 | -8) +1 MIN (84 | 70 | -14) -30 ATL (94 | 76 | -18) +22 COL (63 | 43 | -20) -5 RANDOM OBSERVATIONS - Brewers are now eight for nine at beating their preseason FanGraphs projected win total, with five of those years at +12 wins or better. - Difference between the Brewers in first at +87 wins and Dodgers in second at +49 wins is the same as the difference between the Dodgers in second and the Red Sox in tenth at +11 wins. - Angels on the other end are nine for nine at falling short of their projections. - Of the 13 teams that beat their projections this year, 11 made the playoffs with only MIA and HOU missing out. LAD was the only playoff team to fall short of their projection. - Kind of crazy that both SFG and ATH nailed their projected win totals and have matching -9 marks over the nine seasons.

If you are aggressive at the end of the first half, and mess up like they did, you have the whole second half to make up for it. If you are aggressive as the second team possessing the ball in overtime, and mess it up, game over you lose.

For sure. I guess we’ll see if needing that sense of urgency down the stretch carries over to better playoff results for some of those teams. All of the Brewers playoff teams since 2021 have had things wrapped up from a Divisional standpoint, not much to play for over the last couple weeks, and have subsequently come out flat in the playoffs. Hopefully this year’s team can flip that script.

The Brewers ended the regular season with the most wins in MLB for the 2025 season, and also single season franchise history. Truly remarkable stuff no matter what happens from here on out. But they also ended the regular season 19 W - 21 L over their last 40 games, pretty unremarkable stuff. I was curious how that compared to recent World Series participants, so I clicked around some starting with the first Two Wild Card year in 2012... 24: LAD (27-13) NYY (22-18) 23: TEX (18-22) ARI (22-18) 22: HOU (29-11) PHI (20-20) 21: ATL (24-16) HOU (23-17) 19: WAS (27-13) HOU (29-11) 18: BOS (22-18) LAD (26-14) 17: HOU (26-14) LAD (17-23) 16: CHC (26-14) CLE (24-16) 15: KCR (21-19) NYM (24-16) 14: SFG (24-16) KCR (22-18) 13: BOS (25-15) STL (27-13) 12: SFG (27-13) DET (23-17) The bad news is that nine of the last twelve World Series Winners had at least a .600 W% over their last 40 regular season games. Seven of the last twelve World Series Losers had at least a .575 W% over their last 40 games. I guess the good news is that two of the three teams in the sample at .500 or below over their last 40 games are from the last two seasons, so maybe some chaos is slowly sneaking into the mix, or maybe it's just a blip. Playoff teams with at least a .575 W% over their last 40 games of 2025 have been NYY (29-11), PHI (26-14), CLE (25-15), LAD (24-16), SEA (23-17), and CHC (23-17). Here are the Brewers last 40 records from their other recent playoff seasons...2018 (28-12), 2019 (26-14), 2021 (21-19), 2023 (27-13), and 2024 (23-17). Outside of 2018, being "hot" heading into the playoffs ended up not meaning much for the Brewers. Guess all that's really left to do is take these days off as a well earned reset, crank up the Ueck Signal, sacrifice a live chicken if necessary (or maybe just order a bunch of buckets from Gold Rush), then go out and make some more history.

Definitely been a little bit of everything… First 46 84 wRC+ (26th) 193 R (16th) 4.19 ERA (21st) Middle 76 121 wRC+ (2nd) 443 R (1st) 3.28 ERA (1st) Last 39 102 wRC+ (12th) 166 R (18th) 3.55 ERA (6th) Biggest letdown over this last stretch has prolly been the fielding with 22 unearned these last 39 games versus only 21 unearned runs over those middle 76 games. Batting with RISP also tells the story…93 wRC+ over the first 46, then a 135 wRC+ over the middle 76, and now an 87 wRC+ over these last 39.