sveumrules

There have essentially been eight different eras of Milwaukee Brewers baseball... 1970-77 | 550-738 | .427 | (The Expansion Years) 1978-83 | 518-400 | .564 | (Molitor Yount Glory Years) 1984-86 | 215-268 | .445 | (Molitor Yount Hangover Years) 1987-92 | 508-464 | .523 | (Molitor Yount Twilight Years) 1993-06 | 981-1219 | .446 | (Fourteen Years In The Wilderness) 2007-11 | 426-384 | .526 | (Braun Fielder Years) 2012-16 | 380-430 | .469 | (Late Melvin Early Stearns Years) 2017-22 | 481-390 | .552 | (Stearns Competitive Years) I'll remember Stearns as the guy who helmed the most successful stretch of Brewers baseball in my conscious lifetime & put the infrastructure in place for the organization to move forward and succeed in the modern analytical era.

There have essentially been eight different eras of Milwaukee Brewers baseball... 1970-77 | 550-738 | .427 | (The Expansion Years) 1978-83 | 518-400 | .564 | (Molitor Yount Glory Years) 1984-86 | 215-268 | .445 | (Molitor Yount Hangover Years) 1987-92 | 508-464 | .523 | (Molitor Yount Twilight Years) 1993-06 | 981-1219 | .446 | (Fourteen Years In The Wilderness) 2007-11 | 426-384 | .526 | (Braun Fielder Years) 2012-16 | 380-430 | .469 | (Late Melvin Early Stearns Years) 2017-22 | 481-390 | .552 | (Stearns Competitive Years) I'll remember Stearns as the guy who helmed the most successful stretch of Brewers baseball in my conscious lifetime & put the infrastructure in place for the organization to move forward and succeed in the modern analytical era.

Third quarter of this Bucks / Nets game has been pretty intense. Bucks overcome a 12 point deficit with Giannis doing Giannis things and some BOBBY BOBBY mixed in. Durant got T’d up because he’s too skinny to handle Giannis then Nash got double T’d with a pretty impressive outburst, especially for a Canadian.

Only six LF in the NL even cracked 700 innings. They were... Happ: +13 DRS | +8.3 UZR | +1 OAA Pham: +3 DRS | -2.2 UZR | -1 OAA Profar: +2 DRS | +1.1 UZR | -4 OAA Yelich: -2 DRS | +4.1 UZR | -4 OAA Canha: -4 DRS | -4.0 UZR | -1 OAA Schwarb: -14 DRS | -9.7 UZR | -13 OAA Yelich is as good a candidate for one of the finalist spots as anybody else besides Happ. Peralta got the other NL finalist spot in LF with only 607 innings (a lil over 67 full games) in the senior circuit posting -1 DRS | 0.3 UZR | +4 OAA.

Only six LF in the NL even cracked 700 innings. They were... Happ: +13 DRS | +8.3 UZR | +1 OAA Pham: +3 DRS | -2.2 UZR | -1 OAA Profar: +2 DRS | +1.1 UZR | -4 OAA Yelich: -2 DRS | +4.1 UZR | -4 OAA Canha: -4 DRS | -4.0 UZR | -1 OAA Schwarb: -14 DRS | -9.7 UZR | -13 OAA Yelich is as good a candidate for one of the finalist spots as anybody else besides Happ. Peralta got the other NL finalist spot in LF with only 607 innings (a lil over 67 full games) in the senior circuit posting -1 DRS | 0.3 UZR | +4 OAA.

I agree with pretty much everything you said monty, as per usual, but am holding out hope that if they can extend Woodruff, they will hold onto Burnes for one more go in 2023 and then deal him at the deadline or in the offseason before 2024 depending on how things play out from there.

I agree with pretty much everything you said monty, as per usual, but am holding out hope that if they can extend Woodruff, they will hold onto Burnes for one more go in 2023 and then deal him at the deadline or in the offseason before 2024 depending on how things play out from there.

Yeah, bullpen will definitely need some external additions this winter, whether via trade or FA. In 2021 Brewers relievers went… 44W-24L | 96 ERA- | 102 FIP- | 4.2 rWAR | 3.2 fWAR | +5.90 WPA In 2022 that dropped to… 36W-32L | 97 ERA- | 101 FIP- | 2.8 rWAR | 2.5 fWAR | +2.26 WPA Honestly kinda surprised the ERA- and FIP- are so close given Hader’s massive performance difference from 21 to 22 plus Rogers/Bush second half performance. But those extra eight losses and 3.64 drop in WPA were the real back breaker.

Yeah, bullpen will definitely need some external additions this winter, whether via trade or FA. In 2021 Brewers relievers went… 44W-24L | 96 ERA- | 102 FIP- | 4.2 rWAR | 3.2 fWAR | +5.90 WPA In 2022 that dropped to… 36W-32L | 97 ERA- | 101 FIP- | 2.8 rWAR | 2.5 fWAR | +2.26 WPA Honestly kinda surprised the ERA- and FIP- are so close given Hader’s massive performance difference from 21 to 22 plus Rogers/Bush second half performance. But those extra eight losses and 3.64 drop in WPA were the real back breaker.

There was no legitimate on-the-field reason for a division-leading team to trade away an All-Star closer at the trade deadline. An 8.31 ERA and four losses in the two months before the deadline wasn’t a legitimate on-field reason? If Hader has been his usual dominant self and the Brewers are seven up at the deadline do you think he still gets traded?

There was no legitimate on-the-field reason for a division-leading team to trade away an All-Star closer at the trade deadline. An 8.31 ERA and four losses in the two months before the deadline wasn’t a legitimate on-field reason? If Hader has been his usual dominant self and the Brewers are seven up at the deadline do you think he still gets traded?

The Brewers offense scored 725 runs this season. SDP (705), CLE (698), SEA (690) and TBR (666) all made the playoffs scoring fewer runs. Brewers batters posted a 103 wRC+ this season. SDP (102), TBR (101) and CLE (99) all made the playoffs with a lower wRC+. Brewers position players tallied 24.3 WAR this season. SEA (23.0), CLE (21.8), PHI (21.7), SDP (21.3) and TBR (19.9) all made the playoffs with lower position player WAR. Brewers pitchers allowed 688 runs this season. All twelve of the playoff teams allowed fewer runs. Brewers pitchers posted a 3.92 FIP this season. Only STL (3.94) had a higher FIP among playoff teams. Brewers pitchers tallied 15.6 rWAR this season. Only TOR (14.4) had less rWAR among playoff teams. Our offense was much closer to playoff calibre than our pitching was this season, even with last year’s Cy Young winner fronting the rotation.

San Fran wasn’t trying? Won the most games in MLB last year, spent $26M more than the Brewers on payroll. Won 81 games. The Red Sox weren’t trying? Made the ALCS last year, spent $80M more than the Brewers on payroll. Won 78 games. The White Sox weren’t trying? Won their division last year, spent $66M more than the Brewers on payroll. Won 81 games. The Twins weren’t trying? Signed Correa and Buxton to huge deals, traded for Sonny Gray and some Yankees, spent $16M more than the Brewers on payroll. Won 78 games. The Angels weren’t trying? They have Ohtani/Trout, signed Thor for $21M, gave almost $100M to Iglesias, Loup, Tepera and Lorenzen, spent $50M more than the Brewers on payroll. Won 73 games.

wRC+ is just a more granular version of OPS+. League average OPS with runners on was 735 in 2022. Brewers as a team were at 756, Renfroe at 843. League average OPS with RISP was 741 in 2022. Brewers as a team were at 798, Renfroe at 823.

Brewers 110 wRC+ with men on base ranked 14th in MLB, Renfroe had a 131 wRC+ with men on base. Brewers 120 wRC+ with RISP ranked 6th in MLB, Renfroe had a 123 wRC+ with RISP.

He opted out of the 2/70 left on his deal because he’ll be able to get more than that. Seems perfectly reasonable to me, though SS market is pretty packed again with Dansby, Xander and Trea joining Carlos in search of the big bucks. That’s four of the top five SS by WAR over the last three seasons, with all four also ranking in the Top 15 among all position players. Here’s how that three year WAR leaderboard looks with contracts… 00 Ohtani (18.6 WAR | 1/30, then FA) 01 Judge (17.9 WAR | FA) 02 Trea (15.9 WAR | FA) 03 JRam (15.9 WAR | 7/141) 04 Freeman (15.2 WAR | 6/162) 05 Goldy (14.5 WAR | 5/130) 06 Machado (14.3 WAR | 10/300) 07 Soto (13.2 WAR | 3/27 Arby) 08 Mookie (13.0 WAR | 12/365) 09 Lindor (13.0 WAR | 10/341) 10 Realmuto (12.7 WAR | 5/115) 11 Nolan (12.1 WAR | 4/129 Opt Out) 12 Xander (12.0 WAR | 3/60 Opt Out) 13 Dansby (12.0 WAR | FA) 14 Altuve (11.9 WAR | 5/151) 15 Correa (11.7 WAR | 2/70 Opt Out) 16 Tucker (11.3 WAR | 3/2 pre Arby) 17 Harper (10.9 WAR | 13/330) 18 Trout (10.7 WAR | 12/426) 19 Semien (10.6 WAR | 7/175) 20 Tatis (10.6 WAR | 14/340) 21 Bichette (10.4 WAR | 3/2 pre Arby) 22 Yordan (10.3 WAR | 6/115) 23 Nimmo (10.3 WAR | FA) 24 Seager (10.3 WAR | 10/325) 25 Riley (10.2 WAR | 10/212) Few random observations… Trout only 18th in WAR, makes me feel old. But also shows how insane of value a guy like Tucker is whose three year earnings are less than one paystub tax hit for Harper/Trout just below him. Same thing but to a slightly lesser extent with a guy like Soto. Sandwiched between three guys on 30 million a year deals, but only got 27 million for all three of his years. MLB is it’s own economy, some might even say a legalized monopoly or cartel. Their annual revenue is larger than the GDP of something like 60 countries (mostly island nations & Liechtenstein, but still) and in the same neighborhood as Rwanda or The Bahamas.

Obviously the details are what make everything interesting, but in a macro sense we know the math is stacked against us even at our best. 50/50 to win the division with a shot at the Wild Card if they don’t, and about a 5-10% chance to win the WS if they make the playoffs. FanGraphs had us at 10.6% to win WS last year at the start of the playoffs. At the start of this postseason, FanGraphs had the WS odds for each of the teams at HOU (17.2%), ATL (16.9%), LAD (15.3%), NYM (11.6%), NYY (10.0%), PHI (5.9%), SDP (5.1%), TOR (5.0%), TB (4.4%), SEA (4.1%), STL (2.7%) and CLE (1.8%). So we prolly missed out on a 5-6% WS shot this year. Would I have preferred that over zero? For sure, but even in an expanded playoff field and only like half the league really trying somebody is going to just miss out. Per Spotrac the 6 NL teams with the highest payrollS made the playoffs with STL lowest at $170M, 12th overall. Brewers were 19th at $143M. Given the current economic reality of MLB the Brewers are going to be facing an uphill battle every year to crack that Top 6, much less land one of the Top 2 spots that really set up teams for the hypothetically cleanest path to the WS.

All signs point to this being our last season with a shot at a postseason appearance with Hader. If he wasn’t dealt at the deadline, he likely would have been dealt in the off-season. Ruiz/Gasser (or whoever they’re dealt for) will have multiple opportunities to help this team make the postseason. I don’t see how Hader’s 7.31 ERA with SD guarantees us a playoff spot over Rogers 5.38 ERA with the Brewers. No one thing single handedly blew anything, the results of 162 games are influenced by myriad factors contributing to varying degrees. In 2021 the Brewers pitchers posted 26.3 rWAR, 3rd in MLB. In 2022 they posted 15.6 rWAR, 14th in MLB. What was supposed to be the strength of the team ended up being a mediocrity. Sure, win two more games after the deadline (or any other time in the season) and you make the playoffs. That’s worth some percentage points. But the pitching staff as a whole dropping 10+ wins from Top 3 down to middle of the pack would get a lot more of the percentage points for me.

Except the trade hasn’t ended up yet. That’s like saying the Padres won the Grisham/Urias trade after two months of a six year trade. Rogers put up -0.6 WAR in his two months as a Brewer, Hader put up -0.9 WAR as a Padre. How terrible (or who knows, maybe even good) the trade ends up being will have a lot more to do with the 12 years of service between Ruiz/Gasser than 10 months of Hader/Rogers.

Posted this on another thread, but the writing was on the wall well before the deadline. After the franchise best 32-18 start they went 25-27 heading into the deadline. Here are the splits from those two runs of games... 04/07-05/30 (32-18) PIT: 81 ERA- (4th) | 83 FIP- (2nd) | 8.2 rWAR (4th) | 8.6 fWAR (1st) OFF: 228 RS (7th) | 103 wRC+ (10th) | 7.0 WAR (7th) About what what we expected coming into the season, a dominant pitching staff and an above average offense leading to one of the better teams in baseball. 06/01-07/31 (25-27) PIT: 107 ERA- (18th) | 106 FIP- (21st) | 3.1 rWAR (20th) | 3.1 fWAR (23rd) OFF: 239 R (12th) | 111 wRC+ (7th) | 9.9 WAR (6th) Offense mostly held serve adding 8 points of wRC+ and almost 3 WAR, though run scoring fell off a little relative to the rest of the league. Pitching went in the tank. Hader missing time and giving up runs in bunches instead of putting up all zeroes the main culprit (+1.5 rWAR first 50, -1.0 rWAR next 52). During this stretch the pitching staff essentially consisted of four guys, Burnes (1.6 rWAR), Williams (1.6 rWAR), Woddruff (1.5 rWAR) and Box (0.7 rWAR). Our fifth best pitcher during this stretch was Jandel Gustave (0.3 rWAR), that pretty much says it all. I wouldn’t go back and trade those prospects for a playoff appearance, this team wasn’t going anywhere anyway.

Yeah, Lauer pitched more, but not better. 76 ERA- | 95 FIP- in 2021 compared to 91 ERA- | 112 FIP- in 2022. Pretty crazy how just about every returning pitcher put up worse results in 2022. The foibles of pitching, I guess. Burnes 21: 58 ERA- | 38 FIP- Burnes 22: 73 ERA- | 79 FIP- Woody 21: 61 ERA- | 69 FIP- Woody 22: 75 ERA- | 77 FIP- Peralta 21: 67 ERA- | 73 FIP- Peralta 22: 88 ERA- | 77 FIP- Houser 21: 77 ERA- | 102 FIP- Houser 22: 117 ERA- | 105 FIP- Suter 21: 73 ERA- | 92 FIP- Suter 22: 93 ERA- | 110 FIP- Hader 21: 29 ERA- | 39 FIP- Hader 22: 105 ERA- | 87 FIP- Ashby 21: 108 ERA- | 84 FIP- Ashby 22: 110 ERA- | 102 FIP- Only guys to to really stay the same or get better (beside Milner) were… Box 21: 80 ERA- | 86 FIP- Box 22: 73 ERA- | 89 FIP- Devin 21: 60 ERA- | 66 FIP- Devin 22: 48 ERA- | 51 FIP-

Yeah, Lauer pitched more, but not better. 76 ERA- | 95 FIP- in 2021 compared to 91 ERA- | 112 FIP- in 2022. Pretty crazy how just about every returning pitcher put up worse results in 2022. The foibles of pitching, I guess. Burnes 21: 58 ERA- | 38 FIP- Burnes 22: 73 ERA- | 79 FIP- Woody 21: 61 ERA- | 69 FIP- Woody 22: 75 ERA- | 77 FIP- Peralta 21: 67 ERA- | 73 FIP- Peralta 22: 88 ERA- | 77 FIP- Houser 21: 77 ERA- | 102 FIP- Houser 22: 117 ERA- | 105 FIP- Suter 21: 73 ERA- | 92 FIP- Suter 22: 93 ERA- | 110 FIP- Hader 21: 29 ERA- | 39 FIP- Hader 22: 105 ERA- | 87 FIP- Ashby 21: 108 ERA- | 84 FIP- Ashby 22: 110 ERA- | 102 FIP- Only guys to to really stay the same or get better (beside Milner) were… Box 21: 80 ERA- | 86 FIP- Box 22: 73 ERA- | 89 FIP- Devin 21: 60 ERA- | 66 FIP- Devin 22: 48 ERA- | 51 FIP-

Jays have Kirk who was an All Star and Moreno who was a Top Ten overall prospect entering the season before putting up a 120 wRC+ at AAA and a 113 wRC+ in MLB during his age 22 season. Jansen is expendable depth for the Jays. Prior to being acquired by the Brewers, Omar posted a 113 wRC+ and 4.5 WAR over 1,216 PAs. The main thing holding back his value was his defense at -41 DRS and -22.3 FRM. Kinda crazy how his profile flipped with the Brewers, 85 wRC+ and 4.5 WAR over 867 PAs with +6 DRS and +20 FRM. Jansen is at 98 wRC+ and 6.6 WAR in 1,079 career PAs. While he hasn't hit as well as Omar for his career, he is at 124 wRC+ over his last two seasons/453 PAs and he hasn't been a butcher behind the plate with +10 DRS and +9.2 FRM career. I'd think Jansen's trade value is higher now than Omar's was when we acquired him.

If everybody stays healthy & is ready to go come playoff time they’ve got as good a chance as anybody. I essentially look at the roster like this… Postseason Players: Giannis, Khris, Jrue, Bobby, Pat Regular Season Players: Brook, Wes, Grayson, Carter, Hill, Ibaka Wild Cards: MarJon, Jingles Garbage Time: Thanasis, Nwora Top three things I’m looking forward to are the continued evolution of Giannis, how MarJon/Jingles fit in, and how Horst & team manage to turn some of those RSPs into one more guy that can handle playoff minutes before the deadline.

Not sure if any place tracks % of times a run scored in each split, but with a runner on 2nd and no outs the Brewers 867 OPS ranked 5th. Only NYM, STL, PHI and HOU posted a higher OPS in the split. The Dodgers ranked 28th with a 571 OPS in this split. Runner on 3rd and one out the Brewers 834 OPS ranked 20th, so they didn’t fare as well in that split, but it was also only 46 PAs, about 2% of the Brewers season total. RE24 tracks how many runs a team “should have” scored if they had average performance in each of the 24 unique base/out states. Both BRef (+5.1) and FanGraphs (+8.6) had the Brewers offense slightly positive on the season. We can try to parse different ways the offense could have done better to get those two extra wins needed to make the playoffs, but ultimately the position players improved their WAR from 18.9 in 2021 to 24.1 this year. The pitching staff was a lot leakier, dropping from 26.3 rWAR in 2021 to 15.6 rWAR in 2022.