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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    The Adames and Urias trades both involved notable prospects in Rasmussen and Grisham. Wong 5 WAR for 15 million. Narvaez 4.5 WAR for an org depth prospect. Jace 3.5 WAR off the scrap heap. Avisail 3.3 WAR for a lil over 13 million. Renfroe 2.5 WAR for the corpse of JBJ and his 17.5 million in dead money. Boxberger +2.45 WPA for 4.25 million. There have been a number of solid guys via trade / free agency the last few years.
  2. sveumrules
    Stearns didn’t really have prospect capital to use until now after dealing for Yelich (& to a lesser extent Adames/Urias/Lauer/Rowdy) and graduating all the arms that have been the foundation of the Brewers recent success. Looking at the FanGraphs WAR leaderboards for 2021-22, here are the best position players that have been dealt at some point in the last two years… Trea Turner (135 wRC+ | 13.1 WAR) Juan Soto (154 wRC+ | 10.9 WAR) Matt Chapman (110 wRC+ | 8.3 WAR) Matt Olson (133 wRC+ | 8.2 WAR) Willy Adames (116 wRC+ | 8.0 WAR) We were never getting Turner or Soto, maybe we could have gotten one of the Matts from OAK last offseason? Even if the Brewers wanted to go “all in” at this point, let’s say deal for Sean Murphy then push payroll and sign Correa to the high AAV opt out heavy deal he got from the Twins last year, we still aren’t the favorites for anything. Our payroll would still be a couple two tree superstars short of LAD, SDP, NYM, ATL, PHI and STL. It would certainly increase our playoff odds, add some excitement and sell some tickets (which is why I personally would do it) but it would still be an uphill battle with lots of luck required along the way to win the NLC or make a deep playoff run.
  3. sveumrules
    Sounds like the roots of your problem are more with the economic structure of MLB or with the budget Mark A gives the front office to work with. We returned 11 of the top 13 pitchers by IP from the pitching staff that was 3rd in rWAR in 2021. They finished 14th in rWAR in 2022. That is not an expected level of regression.
  4. sveumrules
    What moves would you have made? There wasn't a whole lot of wiggle room with all the arbitration raises and it looks like they overextended themselves to a franchise record payroll as it was. Entering 2022, external projection systems all favored the Brewers over the Cardinals to win the division. With hindsight it's easy to see that some moves for additional pitching depth would have been nice since Hader (-3.2 rWAR from 2021), Houser (-3.2 rWAR), Peralta (-2.8 rWAR) and Woodruff (-2.4 rWAR) combined for about 11-12 fewer wins in 2022 than in 2021, but it's tough for even the richest teams to withstand that kind of lost production from their closer and half the rotation in the primes of their careers.
  5. sveumrules
    In 2019 Jansen started 94 games for Toronto at catcher after coming into the season ranked #42 (BA), #65 (MLB) and #89 (BPro) on the various preseason Top 100s. He also started 40 of 60 games in 2020. He then started 33 of the first 57 games behind the dish in 2021 before going on the DL.
  6. sveumrules
    In 2019 Jansen started 94 games for Toronto at catcher after coming into the season ranked #42 (BA), #65 (MLB) and #89 (BPro) on the various preseason Top 100s. He also started 40 of 60 games in 2020. He then started 33 of the first 57 games behind the dish in 2021 before going on the DL.
  7. sveumrules
    Swanson’s career wRC+ is heavily weighed down by 2017-19 (1629 PA | 78 wRC+). Last three years he is at 109 wRC+ over 1613 PA. Adames might be closer to Turner by wRC+, but his WAR totals are 3.7 off from Dansby vs 7.6 off from Trea so I’d say overall he is closer to Swanson at this point.
  8. sveumrules
    Maybe if all you do is watch the standings. It certainly didn’t feel like I was watching a first place club while they were going 25-27 during the two months prior to the deadline. It felt kind of the same as watching them go 29-31 after the deadline.
  9. sveumrules
    Thought they'd sign Xander for sure since he is the worst fielder of the bunch,
  10. sveumrules
    July 31? You didn’t think the team was blah when they were going 25-27 for the two months leading into the deadline after the franchise best 32-18 start? Hader lost 4 games with an 8.31 ERA over 19 appearances during that stretch. I’d say that is notably worse than blah.
  11. sveumrules
    Yelich in LF, Winker DH. Jesse is -39 DRS | -22.7 UZR | -31 OAA for his career. Christian is at -10 DRS | +5.5 UZR | -6 OAA since joining the Brewers.
  12. sveumrules
    Turang could end up the odd man out of the IF mix (or traded for an upgrade elsewhere if Adames is extended) for sure. Despite his lack of MLB success to this point, Toro is projected for a 103 wRC+ by Steamer (vs a 95 for Turang) & I’d guess the Brewers internal projections have something similar. Potential lineup before any moves with Steamer projected wRC+ Yelich (119) Frelick (111) Adames (111) Winker (122) Rowdy (123) Urias (111) Toro (103) Caratini (95) Mitchell (99) Other Steamers of note include Taylor (99), Ruiz (104), Hiura (99) and Wiemer (102).
  13. sveumrules
    Jansen was a 16th round pick who received a 100K to sign and has made less than five million in his MLB career so far. Seems like the kind of player who might be interested in extending before FA, which more than 1% of players do.
  14. sveumrules
    The last six years (.552 W%) have been the best run of Brewers baseball since the Molitor Yount Glory Years of 1978-83 (.564 W%). The organization is better positioned to win the WS now than any time in the last forty years. If you could keep the faith from 1993-2006 when the Brewers posted 14 straight losing seasons, keeping the faith now should be a breeze. You might not believe in the Brewers, but I believe in you BlightyBrew!!
  15. sveumrules
    Better health from Peralta, Houser and Woodruff (2021: 13.6 rWAR | 2022: 5.2 rWAR) could net them a pretty healthy jump. Not having Hader melt down for two months (-1.53 WPA from 6/7 to 7/29) or running old man Cain (-1.76 WPA) out there could yield a couple two tree win improvement just by doing nothing too.
  16. sveumrules
    Yeah, Winker at 8.25 million in his last season before FA, Toro at 1.4 projected Arby's with four seasons of team control remaining.
  17. sveumrules
    Murphy/Jansen trade or Contreras/Vasquez signing incoming any moment now.
  18. sveumrules
    Just glancing over the Shift splits on FanGraphs it looks like league average was 77 wRC+ in 2021 and 80 wRC+ in 2022. Yelich actually fared alright with a 103 wRC+ in 559 shifted PAs from 2021-22. Guys who look like they could maybe stand to gain the most over their 2021-22 shifted results would be Rowdy (571 PAs | 42 wRC+), Tyrone (676 PAs | 58 wRC+), Urias (276 PAs | 62 wRC+) and Caratini (311 PAs | 57 wRC+). Wouldn’t be surprised either if Singleton getting added to the 40 Man had something to do with Brewers brass thinking his batted ball profile will benefit from the shift removal.
  19. sveumrules
    Not sure if there is a way to break it down by batted ball type, but StatCast has Yelich 89th percentile on average exit velocity, 98th percentile on max exit velocity and 90th percentile on hard hit percentage in 2022.
  20. sveumrules
    Mitchell was injured and didn’t play from May 14th through July 6th. They also finished two games out of the WC since Philly had the tiebreaker.
  21. sveumrules
    Davis was on the team from June 18th through August 24th, receiving the 10th most PAs over that stretch. With positive defensive and base running value FanGraphs had him at 0.5 WAR, and what few hits he got were somewhat timely with a +0.19 WPA. The player he replaced was at -0.5 WAR and -1.76 WPA. Brewers with notable negative WPAs during that same 6/18 to 8/24 time frame included Ashby (-1.13), Jace (-1.01), Hader (-0.95), Tyrone (-0.92), Alexander (-0.90), Adrian (-0.79), Caratini (-0.74), Strzelecki (-0.57), Omar (-0.46), Bush (-0.45), Urias (-0.44), Chi Chi (-0.37), Jandel (-0.32) and McGee (-0.29). The idea that Davis cost us anything doesn't have much of an objective case. In 2021, Brewers pitchers tallied +16.91 WPA (2nd). In 2022 they only managed +5.21 WPA (12th). When divvying up blame for why the Brewers missed the playoffs in 2022, that gets the biggest slice of the pie.
  22. sveumrules
    Pena is another great example, played zero games at AA and thirty games at AAA. Even with such little high minors experience, the Astros let Carlos Correa walk to give Jeremy the job on a team with World Series aspirations.
  23. sveumrules
    Kwan had zero MLB experience, less than 100 games above A ball and didn’t make any of BA, MLB or BPro’s Top 100 prospects entering 2022. Maybe the Guardians weren’t looking to contend, but they won their division. I won’t be whining about anything come April because I understand there is a wide range of potential outcomes and my opinion has zero influence over which eventually comes to fruition.
  24. sveumrules
    If all else fails maybe the password for the Astros proprietary database is still Eckstein123
  25. sveumrules
    FULL NO TRADE CLAUSE
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