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sveumrules

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  1. sveumrules
    1. Burnes (In conversation for best SP in baseball) 2. Woodruff (Top 10-ish SP in baseball) 3. Chourio (Consensus Top 10 prospect as a teenager) 4. Peralta (Extension helps, injuries hurt) 5. Adames (Top 10-ish SS in baseball) 6. Williams (Top 5-ish reliever in MLB) 7. Contreras (young All Star Catcher) 8. Ashby (Extension & stuff helps, results not quite there yet) 9. Urias (Solid MLB IF + team control) 10. Frelick (Best non-Chourio prospect) HM: Wiemer, Mitchell, Taylor, Turang, Quero Dishonorable Mention: Yelich
  2. sveumrules
    oWAR and dWAR on BRef do not sum perfectly to a player's WAR because they both include the positional adjustment. For Kim BRef has him at +6 BAT | +3 BSR | +12 FLD | +8 POS | +20 REP which sums to 49 RAR or 5.1 WAR. On FanGraphs he is at +3.5 BAT | +1.9 BSR | +4.0 FLD | +5.9 POS | +17.4 REP which sums to 34.9 RAR or 3.7 WAR. As is the case with most players the main column driving the end WAR difference is fielding, which accounts for 8 of the 14 RAR difference between the two systems for Kim.
  3. sveumrules
    Here are the Brewers full season OD Payrolls per Cots (with MLB ranks) over the last 15 years, during which time the Brewers have won the 8th most games in MLB… 2022: $132M (19th) 2021: $99M (19th) 2019: $123M (17th) 2018: $99M (26th) 2017: $63M (30th) 2016: $64M (30th) 2015: $104M (20th) 2014: $104M (16th) 2013: $89M (19th) 2012: $98M (13th) 2011: $84M (17th) 2010: $90M (17th) 2009: $80M (17th) 2008: $81M (15th) The Brewers have a decade and a half long history of outperforming their payroll rank in the win column. Consistently ranking around 17th-19th in payroll is probably the ceiling given Milwaukee’s market size and TV contract are among the smallest in MLB. The idea that the Brewers are putting out a declining product is demonstrably false too… 1983-2007: 1874-2105 (.471 W%) 2008-11: 343-305 (.529 W%) 2012-16: 380-430 (.469 W%) 2017-22: 481-390 (.552 W%) The last six seasons have been the best run of Brewers baseball since making the WS forty years ago.
  4. sveumrules
    Hernandez added to the Brewers list at #22 per FanGraphs with this scouting report… ”Hernandez's stuff, especially his slider, is the darling of some proprietary metrics. He has a tight, upper-70s slider that he throws most often, using it at a 60% clip in 2022. His tailing fastball will creep into the mid-90s and has the uphill angle that teams like Milwaukee covet, with both the tailing movement and angle stemming from his low arm slot. He struggles badly to throw strikes with his fastball, which is probably why he leans on his big-breaking slider more than half the time. There's a tertiary changeup here, but Hernandez's approach to pitching (which is to get ahead of a hitter with his slider, then try to run the fastball up the ladder) is more typical of a single-inning reliever than someone who has worked as a starter to this point. If he finally has an arm strength uptick in the bullpen, he'll be a solid middle reliever; if he can ever learn to command his fastball, his ceiling is higher than that.“
  5. sveumrules
    Among 287 relievers with at least 50 IP over the last two years Scott Barlow is at 148 IP (2nd), 5.2 rWAR (1st), 3.0 fWAR (10th) and +4.28 WPA (8th) with a 54 ERA- | 78 FIP- | 85 xFIP-. That is worlds better than Soto at 124 IP (36th), 0.5 rWAR (254th), 0.7 fWAR (129th) and +1.73 WPA (61st) with an 82 ERA- | 95 FIP- | 108 xFIP-. Any deal for Barlow probably starts with Mitchell or Wiemer. Rainey had TJ in August, would rather just see if Small can figure out his command than deal him for someone out most of 2023. I’d do the Mayo deal, but would guess BAL would want Lauer over Houser and someone with more value/control than Hiura for the 2nd piece, at which point it prolly isn’t worth it anymore from the MIL side.
  6. sveumrules
    I don't think Cabrera & Mitchell having similar values is that far off. Cabrera has a lot of promise, but he hasn't really fulfilled it yet, and has yet to pitch a full workload in his professional career... 2016: 47 IP 2017: 35 IP 2018: 100 IP 2019: 96 IP 2021: 87 IP 2022: 110 IP So far Cabrera only has 98 MLB IP with a slightly better than average ERA- of 94 but with much less encouraging peripherals, FIP- (129) and xFIP- (108). Steamer projects Cabrera at 132 IP of 4.08 ERA for 1.4 WAR versus a Mitchell projection of 432 PAs of 99 wRC+ for 1.7 WAR in 2023.
  7. sveumrules
    I don't think Cabrera & Mitchell having similar values is that far off. Cabrera has a lot of promise, but he hasn't really fulfilled it yet, and has yet to pitch a full workload in his professional career... 2016: 47 IP 2017: 35 IP 2018: 100 IP 2019: 96 IP 2021: 87 IP 2022: 110 IP So far Cabrera only has 98 MLB IP with a slightly better than average ERA- of 94 but with much less encouraging peripherals, FIP- (129) and xFIP- (108). Steamer projects Cabrera at 132 IP of 4.08 ERA for 1.4 WAR versus a Mitchell projection of 432 PAs of 99 wRC+ for 1.7 WAR in 2023.
  8. sveumrules
    Probably to line up with Stearns contract expiring in 2023. Believe Counsell’s contract is also up after 2023.
  9. sveumrules
    Always group Viña, Belliard and Loretta together in my head. Kinda crazy how close their career Brewers numbers are… Viña 2187 PA | 90 OPS+ | 6.0 WAR Belliard 1930 PA | 90 OPS+ | 5.8 WAR Loretta 2943 PA | 92 OPS+ | 5.9 WAR
  10. sveumrules
    From 2020-21 there were 263 players with at least 400 PA. Hiura ranked 250th by wRC+ (72) and 3rd in K% (36.6%). He hadn't done anything to earn regular playing time entering 2022. Over the first month (4/7 to 5/5) of the season he posted a 97 wRC+ and 47.6 K% before being sent down to AAA. Upon his return he was scorching hot for 10 days (228 wRC+ | only 31.6 K%) from 5/18 to 5/28 followed up by going ice cold for 10 days (46 wRC+ | 54.8 K%) from 5/30 to 6/9 which earned him a week off. He bounced back alright over the next two months of sporadic playing time with a 184 wRC+ and 38.5 K% over 78 PA from 6/15 to 8/22 with a month at AAA mixed in. However, as it typically is with Keston it was too good to be true and he finished the season with a 63 wRC+ and 39.8 K% over his final 93 PA from 8/23 to 10/5.
  11. sveumrules
    Brewers starting pitchers by rWAR with league rank and team wins... 2017: 14.2 rWAR (8th) 86 W 2018: 11.2 rWAR (15th) 96 W 2019: 9.9 rWAR (15th) 89 W 2021: 22.3 rWAR (2nd) 95 W 2022: 13.0 rWAR (14th) 86 W The Brewers have had an elite rotation for one of the last five full seasons.
  12. sveumrules
    I don’t think Wiemer and Taylor having similar value is that far off. Since 2020 Tyrone is one of 116 OF with at least 600 PA, essentially four per team. His 3.6 WAR ranks 61st ahead of Conforto (3.5), Haniger (3.3), Profar (3.1), Castellanos (3.0), Avisail (2.8), Joc (2.2), Bellinger (2.1), etc. Not bad for a CF-capable “fourth outfielder” still making league minimum with four years of team control remaining. Sure, Wiemer has higher upside, but also still has some bust factor that has to be considered. TT doesn’t have that same upside, but he’s already established a higher floor as a legit MLB OF. Wiemer would have higher value to a rebuilding team looking for future value, while TT would have higher value to a team looking for present value.
  13. sveumrules
    Feliciano’s breakout at A+ (129 wRC+) came during his age 20 season and was accompanied by a 6.0 BB% and an alarming 28.8 K%. Quero just finished up his age 19 season split between A/A+ and while he didn’t hit quite as well with only a 116 wRC+ he showed a much better plate discipline profile with a 7.4 BB% and 18.8 K%. I don’t think anyone is haunted by anything, but to carry out the analogy I’d wager Quero ends up more helped along by the ghost of Maldonado past than he ends up spooked by the spectre of Feliciano (or other catchers with completely different profiles).
  14. sveumrules
    Right, because all of them (except Giancarlo) can field a position and none of them struck out thee very most out of the 317 players with at least 250 PA in 2022. Keston’s lack of playing time is tied directly to those two factors. The reason say Joey Gallo, gets more playing time than Keston despite them both being high strikeout power hitters is because Gallo walks more (16.0 BB% from 2019-22 vs 7.4% for Hiura), slugs more (.249 ISO vs .216 ISO) and fields better (+37 DRS vs -16 DRS).
  15. sveumrules
    Yet, they all finished with higher WAR than Keston (0.8). OPS is only one portion of a players value. If a player can’t field a position, and strikes out 41.7% of the time (worst in 2022 min 250 PA), its difficult to get consistent playing time.
  16. sveumrules
    "He’s a promising prospect defensively behind the plate. But so was Mario Feliciano, who ultimately ended up on waivers and claimed by Detroit." Quero is an advanced defender behind the plate, Feliciano was always a bat first prospect who needed to figure out the actual catching part. Outside of being teenage Brewers catching prospects the two have very different profiles.
  17. sveumrules
    Benintendi 2020-22 1111 PAs | 110 wRC+ | 4.1 WAR Yelich 2020-22 1393 PAs | 108 wRC+ | 4.5 WAR Benintendi just signed for 5/75 vs 6/162.5 remaining for Yelich, so that’s a difference of $87.5M. Throw in however much negative value Yelich’s full NTC carries as another obstacle to any deal and the -112.5 number on BTV feels like it’s in the right range to me. Figuring out Tatis is a fair bit trickier. Has 12/324 left on his deal with a full NTC and had injury issues before wrecking his motorcycle multiple times & getting busted for PEDs. But there is no doubt about the quality of his play when healthy with a 153 wRC+ ranking 5th since 2019 while his 13.6 WAR still ranks 26th despite missing 270 games during his career.
  18. sveumrules
    Ruiz has proven twice now to have divisive value. First we got robbed for only getting him and Gasser as the prospects back for Hader. Then we committed robbery to turn him into Contreras plus. BTV value seems to be in line with the consensus, but clearly the A’s, Brewers (& likely other organizations as well) value him more highly than the consensus. If he gets a full season PAs with the A’s we’ll have a lot better idea whose valuation was more accurate.
  19. sveumrules
    In terms of the immediate, he has a full NTC and only makes $7M in 2023, so would obviously have to approve any deal and would fit in the budget. Salaries climb to 11, 20, 20, 25, 25 through 2028 (Yelich’s last guaranteed year) before hitting $36M annually from 2029-36. If we can get him without giving up Chourio, there wouldn’t be a much higher upside play that could be made. Obviously the injury and PED stuff are huge mitigating factors, but he wouldn’t be theoretically available otherwise.
  20. sveumrules
    Thanks Brock for spearheading the charge that transitioned BF.net/com from a remnant of the “old internet” into something more contemporary and easily accessible to Brewer Fans. Here’s to continued growth in 2023, I’d imagine a World Series win would be alright for site traffic.
  21. sveumrules
    I can kinda understand Renfroe/Wong since they were just traded, but Hader was dealt in August. Please don’t say Burnes is April.
  22. sveumrules
    Was really surprised by Matt Moore’s season (& that he was even still pitching at all really). Looks like there might have been some luck involved though, especially his HR/FB rate with his splits at 50 ERA- | 74 FIP- | 98 xFIP-. That the drunken sailor Rangers didn’t resign him straight away gives me some pause too.
  23. sveumrules
    Suter is out of options and not good enough to be used in high leverage spots. If they weren’t willing to pick up their dependable 7th inning guy two years running at $3M (Box’s 2023 option), they were never paying that same $3M for a long reliever.
  24. sveumrules
    Even with sporadic playing time spread out over multiple seasons, two things can be accurately forecasted. His K% and defensive ineptitude. Barring a major adjustment or approach change he is going to strikeout at an alarming rate and never be relied upon to provide any defensive value. This is the primary reason he only has 1.5 seasons of PAs over four years. Well, that and he stunk from 2020-21. His results moving forward will depend entirely on batted ball luck just as they have in the past.... 2019: 348 PA | .402 BABIP | 24.1 HR/FB% | 139 wRC+ 2020-21: 443 PA | .271 BABIP | 18.9 HR/FB% | 71 wRC+ 2022: 266 PA | .355 BABIP | 29.8 HR/FB% | 115 wRC+
  25. sveumrules
    Winker had a 109 wRC+ last year. That is horrendous? I guess if you want to compare it to the 145 wRC+ he posted from 2020-21, sure.
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