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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Yelich in LF, Winker DH. Jesse is -39 DRS | -22.7 UZR | -31 OAA for his career. Christian is at -10 DRS | +5.5 UZR | -6 OAA since joining the Brewers.
  2. sveumrules
    Turang could end up the odd man out of the IF mix (or traded for an upgrade elsewhere if Adames is extended) for sure. Despite his lack of MLB success to this point, Toro is projected for a 103 wRC+ by Steamer (vs a 95 for Turang) & I’d guess the Brewers internal projections have something similar. Potential lineup before any moves with Steamer projected wRC+ Yelich (119) Frelick (111) Adames (111) Winker (122) Rowdy (123) Urias (111) Toro (103) Caratini (95) Mitchell (99) Other Steamers of note include Taylor (99), Ruiz (104), Hiura (99) and Wiemer (102).
  3. sveumrules
    Jansen was a 16th round pick who received a 100K to sign and has made less than five million in his MLB career so far. Seems like the kind of player who might be interested in extending before FA, which more than 1% of players do.
  4. sveumrules
    The last six years (.552 W%) have been the best run of Brewers baseball since the Molitor Yount Glory Years of 1978-83 (.564 W%). The organization is better positioned to win the WS now than any time in the last forty years. If you could keep the faith from 1993-2006 when the Brewers posted 14 straight losing seasons, keeping the faith now should be a breeze. You might not believe in the Brewers, but I believe in you BlightyBrew!!
  5. sveumrules
    Better health from Peralta, Houser and Woodruff (2021: 13.6 rWAR | 2022: 5.2 rWAR) could net them a pretty healthy jump. Not having Hader melt down for two months (-1.53 WPA from 6/7 to 7/29) or running old man Cain (-1.76 WPA) out there could yield a couple two tree win improvement just by doing nothing too.
  6. sveumrules
    Yeah, Winker at 8.25 million in his last season before FA, Toro at 1.4 projected Arby's with four seasons of team control remaining.
  7. sveumrules
    Murphy/Jansen trade or Contreras/Vasquez signing incoming any moment now.
  8. sveumrules
    Just glancing over the Shift splits on FanGraphs it looks like league average was 77 wRC+ in 2021 and 80 wRC+ in 2022. Yelich actually fared alright with a 103 wRC+ in 559 shifted PAs from 2021-22. Guys who look like they could maybe stand to gain the most over their 2021-22 shifted results would be Rowdy (571 PAs | 42 wRC+), Tyrone (676 PAs | 58 wRC+), Urias (276 PAs | 62 wRC+) and Caratini (311 PAs | 57 wRC+). Wouldn’t be surprised either if Singleton getting added to the 40 Man had something to do with Brewers brass thinking his batted ball profile will benefit from the shift removal.
  9. sveumrules
    Not sure if there is a way to break it down by batted ball type, but StatCast has Yelich 89th percentile on average exit velocity, 98th percentile on max exit velocity and 90th percentile on hard hit percentage in 2022.
  10. sveumrules
    Mitchell was injured and didn’t play from May 14th through July 6th. They also finished two games out of the WC since Philly had the tiebreaker.
  11. sveumrules
    Davis was on the team from June 18th through August 24th, receiving the 10th most PAs over that stretch. With positive defensive and base running value FanGraphs had him at 0.5 WAR, and what few hits he got were somewhat timely with a +0.19 WPA. The player he replaced was at -0.5 WAR and -1.76 WPA. Brewers with notable negative WPAs during that same 6/18 to 8/24 time frame included Ashby (-1.13), Jace (-1.01), Hader (-0.95), Tyrone (-0.92), Alexander (-0.90), Adrian (-0.79), Caratini (-0.74), Strzelecki (-0.57), Omar (-0.46), Bush (-0.45), Urias (-0.44), Chi Chi (-0.37), Jandel (-0.32) and McGee (-0.29). The idea that Davis cost us anything doesn't have much of an objective case. In 2021, Brewers pitchers tallied +16.91 WPA (2nd). In 2022 they only managed +5.21 WPA (12th). When divvying up blame for why the Brewers missed the playoffs in 2022, that gets the biggest slice of the pie.
  12. sveumrules
    Hasn’t been much to complain about so far ? ? If Bucks we’re like 10-10 instead of 15-5 the thread would have another couple two tree pages easy. Currently 16th in ORtg with Giannis putting up his worst efficiency in like five years. Will be interesting to see how much Middleton’s return helps those numbers over the rest of the season.
  13. sveumrules
    Pena is another great example, played zero games at AA and thirty games at AAA. Even with such little high minors experience, the Astros let Carlos Correa walk to give Jeremy the job on a team with World Series aspirations.
  14. sveumrules
    Kwan had zero MLB experience, less than 100 games above A ball and didn’t make any of BA, MLB or BPro’s Top 100 prospects entering 2022. Maybe the Guardians weren’t looking to contend, but they won their division. I won’t be whining about anything come April because I understand there is a wide range of potential outcomes and my opinion has zero influence over which eventually comes to fruition.
  15. sveumrules
    If all else fails maybe the password for the Astros proprietary database is still Eckstein123
  16. sveumrules
    FULL NO TRADE CLAUSE
  17. sveumrules
    FULL NO TRADE CLAUSE
  18. sveumrules
    I wouldn’t be surprised if OD payroll is $100M or $150M or anywhere in between. (ok, I’ll be kinda surprised if it ends up at $150M) I’d say general fan sentiment has been trending down since the 2021 playoffs, with the Hader trade and missing the playoffs this year compounding things further. The only two things I can see reversing that trend are having another Yelich/Cain “big moves” kind of offseason to drum up excitement or making a deep postseason run. Doing both would be ideal. One might even help facilitate the other. I don’t think extending one of Burnes, Woody or Adames really moves the fan excitement needle much since they were going to be here next year anyway. Even trading for outside help is risky because the same prospects who aren’t good enough to replace Renfroe will somehow also be too much to give up for whoever we get in return. For me personally, a splashy offseason at the outer reaches of feasibility would be extending one of Adames/Woody, trading for Sean Murphy and signing Jose Abreu (which likely would put payroll in franchise record territory again), though I feel like that still wouldn’t quite clear the all-in threshold for many. Trading for Yandy Diaz then signing Christian Vazquez and Michael Brantley is probably a lot more realistic, but that definitely isn’t selling any season ticket packages.
  19. sveumrules
    I wouldn’t be surprised if OD payroll is $100M or $150M or anywhere in between. (ok, I’ll be kinda surprised if it ends up at $150M) I’d say general fan sentiment has been trending down since the 2021 playoffs, with the Hader trade and missing the playoffs this year compounding things further. The only two things I can see reversing that trend are having another Yelich/Cain “big moves” kind of offseason to drum up excitement or making a deep postseason run. Doing both would be ideal. One might even help facilitate the other. I don’t think extending one of Burnes, Woody or Adames really moves the fan excitement needle much since they were going to be here next year anyway. Even trading for outside help is risky because the same prospects who aren’t good enough to replace Renfroe will somehow also be too much to give up for whoever we get in return. For me personally, a splashy offseason at the outer reaches of feasibility would be extending one of Adames/Woody, trading for Sean Murphy and signing Jose Abreu (which likely would put payroll in franchise record territory again), though I feel like that still wouldn’t quite clear the all-in threshold for many. Trading for Yandy Diaz then signing Christian Vazquez and Michael Brantley is probably a lot more realistic, but that definitely isn’t selling any season ticket packages.
  20. sveumrules
    Bucks trailed by 11 after a lethargic first half. Now up 14 heading into Q4 after hanging a 35-10 on CLE in Q3.
  21. sveumrules
    The Brewers offense scored 725 runs this season. SDP (705), CLE (698), SEA (690) and TBR (666) all made the playoffs scoring fewer runs. Brewers batters posted a 103 wRC+ this season. SDP (102), TBR (101) and CLE (99) all made the playoffs with a lower wRC+. Brewers position players tallied 24.3 WAR this season. SEA (23.0), CLE (21.8), PHI (21.7), SDP (21.3) and TBR (19.9) all made the playoffs with lower position player WAR. Brewers pitchers allowed 688 runs this season. All twelve of the playoff teams allowed fewer runs. Brewers pitchers posted a 3.92 FIP this season. Only STL (3.94) had a higher FIP among playoff teams. Brewers pitchers tallied 15.6 rWAR this season. Only TOR (14.4) had less rWAR among playoff teams. I didn’t find either the offense or pitching embarrassing personally, but the pitching was statistically closer to being shameful.
  22. sveumrules
    The Brewers offense scored 725 runs this season. SDP (705), CLE (698), SEA (690) and TBR (666) all made the playoffs scoring fewer runs. Brewers batters posted a 103 wRC+ this season. SDP (102), TBR (101) and CLE (99) all made the playoffs with a lower wRC+. Brewers position players tallied 24.3 WAR this season. SEA (23.0), CLE (21.8), PHI (21.7), SDP (21.3) and TBR (19.9) all made the playoffs with lower position player WAR. Brewers pitchers allowed 688 runs this season. All twelve of the playoff teams allowed fewer runs. Brewers pitchers posted a 3.92 FIP this season. Only STL (3.94) had a higher FIP among playoff teams. Brewers pitchers tallied 15.6 rWAR this season. Only TOR (14.4) had less rWAR among playoff teams. I didn’t find either the offense or pitching embarrassing personally, but the pitching was statistically closer to being shameful.
  23. sveumrules
    Because it’s a hundred some million dollars guaranteed right now and the future is uncertain. Woodruff won’t be hitting free agency until after his age 31 season. So he’s probably looking at a 4/5 year deal tops through age 35/36 if he doesn’t extend. Lets say 30 million for the next two Arby’s years and then a 5/150 deal in FA, that’s something like 7/180 if he stays healthy and dealing for two more years. Let’s say the Brewers offered him the Castillo extension, 5/110. Then it comes down to is it worth gambling on one’s health and performance for two more years for an extra $70M that might be there or might not. Everyone weighs risk/reward differently. Do the Brewers want to risk extending a pitcher at big bucks with limited payroll? Do Woodruff/Burnes want to risk potential injury in hopes of maximizing future earnings?
  24. sveumrules
    Because it’s a hundred some million dollars guaranteed right now and the future is uncertain. Woodruff won’t be hitting free agency until after his age 31 season. So he’s probably looking at a 4/5 year deal tops through age 35/36 if he doesn’t extend. Lets say 30 million for the next two Arby’s years and then a 5/150 deal in FA, that’s something like 7/180 if he stays healthy and dealing for two more years. Let’s say the Brewers offered him the Castillo extension, 5/110. Then it comes down to is it worth gambling on one’s health and performance for two more years for an extra $70M that might be there or might not. Everyone weighs risk/reward differently. Do the Brewers want to risk extending a pitcher at big bucks with limited payroll? Do Woodruff/Burnes want to risk potential injury in hopes of maximizing future earnings?
  25. sveumrules
    "We're kind of sitting in a chaos cycle of where we're doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, and it's not something we can keep doing."
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