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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    The Brewers won the 6th most games in MLB over the last five years. That’s quite a bit of actual winning regardless of payroll. Relative to the franchise’s history, yes, that is objectively the best they’ve done in 40 years. Sure, they didn’t win the World Series during Stearns tenure, only six teams did. That’s a pretty high bar to clear. If one’s threshold for an enjoyable Brewers season is “World Series”, they are setting themselves up for misery on purpose.
  2. sveumrules
    Which MLB owner made their fortune on the up and up? Hoarding enough wealth to be a billionaire in the first place is pretty shady in and of itself. I never let my portfolio get over 999 million, personally.
  3. sveumrules
    Hall (95 OPS+ | 9.3 WAR) is an easy number five. Hernandez (96 OPS+ | 6.3 WAR), Counsell (75 OPS+ | 6.8 WAR) and Segura (81 OPS+ | 5.8 WAR) are in a tier of their own after that. Even Villar (96 OPS+ | 4.6 WAR) and Listach (71 OPS+ | 5.5 WAR) have a solid gap over Spiers (78 OPS+ | 2.7 WAR) who was essentially Arcia (75 OPS+ | 2.4 WAR), but on some bad teams.
  4. sveumrules
    Since 2020 Tyrone is one of 116 OF with at least 600 PA, essentially four per team. His 3.6 WAR ranks 61st ahead of Conforto (3.5), Haniger (3.3), Profar (3.1), Castellanos (3.0), Avisail (2.8), Joc (2.2), Bellinger (2.1), etc. Considering all those guys (minus Jurickson) are making $13M+ and they all (minus Conforto) needed hundreds more PAs to accrue their WAR, I’d say TT is a perfectly cromulent starting option at less than $1M.
  5. sveumrules
    Going through the schedule & where the days off fall it looks like there would be about 20 games that would require a sixth starter. If all goes well (it won’t) could line it up something like Burnes/Woody (33 GS), Freddy/Lauer/Miley (25 GS), which leaves 21 games for some combo of Houser/Ashby. Opening the season with Adrian & Aaron in the pen stretched out for multi inning work would make me feel a lot better about the relief corps.
  6. sveumrules
    Davis was on the roster from June 18 to August 26 posting 0.5 WAR and +0.21 WPA in his 91 PAs. Getting positive contributions in a small sample from their 6th OF didn’t cost them anything. Lorenzo Cain (-0.5 WAR | -1.73 WPA) has a much more substantial case for costing them a couple wins. Mitchell was hurt and did not play from May 14th through July 6th. He didn’t even get promoted to Nashville until August 2nd receiving only 85 PAs in AAA before getting called up. Given almost two months missed to injury & less than one month at AAA (plus the 41.2 K% in MLB), I think there is a better case that Mitchell was rushed than there is that he was held down for any kind of service time reasons.
  7. sveumrules
    Molitor is the best 2B and 3B just like Yount is the best SS and CF in franchise history. Sure, that might be tricky filling out a lineup card (give me Cirillo at 3B & Gomez in CF), but for the purpose of lists like these I don’t think there’s anything wrong with the players who were objectively the best at each position to be in the #1 spot for that position.
  8. sveumrules
    01 Molitor (116 OPS+ and 12.1 WAR as primary 2B from 78-80) 02 Gantner (Longevity King, 22.4 WAR with +36 FLD) 03 Weeks (12.4 WAR with the -115 FLD killing most of the value his bat provided) 04 Wong (114 OPS+ and 6.4 WAR) 05 Randolph (126 OPS+ and 4.3 WAR) HM: Loretta (92 OPS+ | 5.9 WAR), Vina (90 OPS+ | 6.0 WAR), Belliard (90 OPS+ | 5.8 WAR)
  9. sveumrules
    What kind of late inning reliever is signing for that kind of money on a one year deal? Looking at the FA tracker for this offseason the only RPs to sign in that range are Mychal Givens, Pierce Johnson and Miguel Castro.
  10. sveumrules
    Barring injury he'll be on the OD roster, but I don't think he's guaranteed a starting spot just yet. Brewers FO are big fans of depth/competition so I think BA and Turang will both make the OD roster and neither will be a "starter" in the traditional sense. Maybe something like... 1B: Rowdy (122) Bross (40) 2B: Brice (112) Urias (50) SS: Adames (150) Brice (12) 3B: Urias (80) Anderson (72) Can give Anderson additional games in RF, or slide games back and forth between him and Brice based on match up, performance, injury, etc and still have plenty of PAs for everybody.
  11. sveumrules
    Can DH Contreras vs LHP to get him more PAs.
  12. sveumrules
    If I understand correctly, the claiming team (even after passing through waivers) would still be responsible for the league minimum, so his $2.2M salary is more like a $1.5M gamble.
  13. sveumrules
    Hiura has never hit LHP well in MLB. His seasonal wRC+ vs LHP from 2019-22 were 74, 81, 13 and 75 for a career 65 wRC+ vs LHP. Anderson hit LHP to the tune of a 107 wRC+ from 2018-20 before injuries marred his 2021/22 seasons knocking his career mark vs LHP down to a 93 wRC+. Anderson has been almost 30% better than Hiura vs LHP over the course of their careers and at his peak was over 40% better. There are 169 RHB with at least 300 PAs vs LHP since 2019. Keston’s 65 wRC+ ranks 168th with only defensive minded catcher Max Stassi lower. There pretty much is never a Keston Hiura all over again, dude is one of a kind in multiple ways.
  14. sveumrules
    Mentioned him in another thread, but Hunter Harvey had a sneaky good year out of the Nationals pen last year. Only 39 IP but he posted a 62 ERA- and 52 FIP-, though his 0.23 HR9 is likely unsustainable leading to an 85 xFIP-. Checking his pitch mix it looks like he more or less ditched his breaking balls to emphasize his 98.3 MPH four seamer (77%) and 89.4 MPH splitter (15%) as the out pitch. Was a waiver claim by the Nats last year, so maybe they’d want to cash him in to gamble on Hiura’s upside? Could send back one of the out of options relievers and maybe a prospect like Zavier Warren to get it over the line.
  15. sveumrules
    I wouldn’t necessarily say wrong, just that there are some reasons (beyond blind optimism) to believe they might not stink as bad vs LHP as they did last year (92 wRC+). The other thing to keep in mind is splits vs LHP probably comp best by sample size with relief pitcher workloads & we know how volatile relievers are year over year.
  16. sveumrules
    Urias defensive metrics in 1,191 innings at 3B are pretty neutral over his career, +10 DRS | -0.1 UZR | -3 OAA. I agree he profiles better at 2B, but the metrics haven’t seen much of a difference in his 807 innings at the keystone with +3 DRS | +1.1 UZR | +6 OAA.
  17. sveumrules
    Not necessarily. Here are splits vs LHP since 2020… Contreras (155 PA | 158 wRC+), Brosseau (261 PA | 128 wRC+), Urias (307 PA | 111 wRC+), Adames (389 PA | 110 wRC+), Tyrone (239 PA | 109 wRC+) and Yelich (401 PA | 104 wRC+) are six guys on the right side of 100. Anderson was at 107 wRC+ vs LHP over 358 PAs from 2018-20, so he could bounce back to the right side of 100. Frelick and Turang have also had pretty even splits the last couple years, so might not be complete liabilities vs LHP… Frelick 22 vs RHP: 396 PA | 890 OPS Frelick 22 vs LHP: 166 PA | 865 OPS Frelick 21 vs RHP: 136 PA | 840 OPS Frelick 21 vs LHP: 33 PA | 1054 OPS Turang 22 vs RHP: 399 PA | 767 OPS Turang 22 vs LHP: 204 PA | 781 OPS Turang 21 vs RHP: 368 PA | 711 OPS Turang 21 vs LHP: 128 PA | 705 OPS The other thing to consider when looking at the 2022 results vs LHP is that while losing Renfroe (134 wRC+ | +5.7 wRAA) hurts, losing Cain (-17 wRC+ | -6.8 wRAA), Wong (37 wRC+ | -6.9 wRAA) and hopefully Hiura (75 wRC+ | -2.9 wRAA) should help a lot more.
  18. sveumrules
    vs RHP Ca: Contreras 1B: Rowdy 2B: Turang SS: Adames 3B: Urias LF: Yelich CF: Frelick RF: Mitchell DH: Winker vs LHP Ca: Caratini 1B: Brosseau 2B: Urias SS: Adames 3B: Anderson LF: Yelich CF: Frelick RF: Taylor DH: Contreras
  19. sveumrules
    Good insurance policy for 3B/RF. If he hits like 2018-20 (115 wRC+) could be a nice signing, if he hits like 2021-22 (93 wRC+) prolly won’t be much of an upgrade over what we already have.
  20. sveumrules
    It’s possible one last move of significance is incoming before the season starts, but with how the NL lines up currently it’d be hard for us to jump from a “low tier” contender up to that next tier. Here’s the current projected WAR totals for NL teams on the FanGraphs depth charts… Top Tier: SDP (52.2), NYM (51.6), ATL (50.2) Mid Tier: LAD (47.8), STL (46.4) Low Tier: PHI (43.4), MIL (41.8) Need Help: SFG (37.6), MIA (36.5), CHC (35.3). PIT (35.2), ARI (33.2) No Hope: WAS (28.2), CIN (27.6), COL (26.1)
  21. sveumrules
    Three signees 6’2” or taller are all pitchers. Also kinda interesting with zero LHP and only one catcher.
  22. sveumrules
    Mostly conjecture, but it seems to me like the Brewers either don't care about guys being on the short side, or are maybe even seeking them out somewhat looking through the system. Might be thinking with the incoming automated strike zone that shorter players will benefit by having smaller zones to cover. On the recent FanGraphs list there is Frelick (5'10"), Brown Jr. (5' 11"), Quero (5' 11"), Lara (5'9"), Moore (5'9"), Areinamo (5'10"), Perkins (5'11"), C. Rodriguez (5'10"), Wood (5'10"), Castillo (5'11"), and Hedbert (5'11") all listed under six feet. Eleven of the 23 position players on the list. If you throw in Warren & Metzinger both listed at 6'0" that flips it to over half at 13 of 23.
  23. sveumrules
    Which free agents do you believe would have been wise signings for the Brewers this offseason?
  24. sveumrules
    In 2011 the Brewers OD payroll of $84M ranked 17th. They won 96 games. They followed that up with a $98M OD payroll ranking 13th (highest ever under Mark A) and won 83 games. In 2018 the Brewers OD payroll of $99M ranked 26th. They won 96 games. They followed that up with a $123M OD payroll ranking 17th and won 89 games. In 2021 the Brewers OD payroll of $99M ranked 19th. They won 95 games. They followed that up with a $132M OD payroll, a big increase but not enough to get out of 19th place, and won 86 games. That’s three recent-ish examples where increased spending didn’t result in increased winning. I’d say sometimes spending equals winning and sometimes it doesn’t. Being able to spend more can be helpful if done intelligently, but it doesn’t guarantee anything either.
  25. sveumrules
    Bush is a great example of how much the game has changed in a relatively short time. Inning eating #4/5 starters just aren’t really even a thing anymore. In 2006 he was one of 45 pitchers with at least 200 IP. Nine of those 45 had an ERA worse than league average, including Doug Davis. Bush was one of another 11 who had an ERA- between 99 and 94, so just a lil better than average. Hardly anyone pitches 200 IP anymore to begin with. Only eight in 2022 with the worst ERA- belonging to Gerritt Cole at 91. Only 45 pitchers even threw enough IP (162) in 2022 to qualify vs 84 qualifiers in 2006.
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