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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Beane’s A’s have definitely had impressive success over the years, especially given ownerships near total indifference to the team’s existence, but twenty years ago he was more or less on an island with what he was doing. At this point pretty much every team has an expansive analytics department and multiple Ivy League acronym holders in the front office to go along with their massive payroll advantages. From 2015-17 OAK won the 4th fewest games in MLB, then bounced back to win the 5th most from 2018-21 before having their first 100 loss season since 1979 this past summer. Will be interesting to see how long this rebuild lasts. They’ve let Semien, Treinen, Hendriks and Canha walk in free agency instead of trading them and even with dealing the likes of Chapman, Olson, Murphy, Montas, Bassitt and Manea recently they still have a middle of the road farm.
  2. sveumrules
    Drafted in 2012 so this will be his 11th season in the organization. Honestly is remarkable given how much player movement there is nowadays and he isn’t a star level player. Since 2020 Tyrone is one of 116 OF with at least 600 PA, essentially four per team. His 3.6 WAR ranks 61st ahead of Conforto (3.5), Haniger (3.3), Profar (3.1), Castellanos (3.0), Avisail (2.8), Joc (2.2), Bellinger (2.1), etc. Not bad for a “fourth outfielder”.
  3. sveumrules
    It’s [insert adjective of your choice] looking at the A’s Cots page and Jace ($4.75M) & Manny ($4.5M) are their 2nd and 3rd highest paid players at the moment.
  4. sveumrules
    Contreras has also posted lower K% through his minor league career, 20.7% over 222 PA at AAA, 19.1% over 202 PA at AA, 20.2% over 297 PA at A+, all while being over a year younger than league average at each stop. Steamer is projecting a 25.9 K% for William in 2023 vs 27.7% in 2022 (376 PA) and 28.4% for his MLB career (571 PA).
  5. sveumrules
    Rule 5 picks have to stay on the MLB roster all year. That seems like a way more important factor than the 50K.
  6. sveumrules
    Nice bounce back win for the Bucks (without Jrue) against Golden State tonight after their worst loss of the year to HOU on Sunday. Giannis with a somewhat ugly 30 on 9/26 from the field while Bobby couldn’t miss with 25 on 11/15 shooting. Tough little stretch coming up over the next six with @MEM, vsUTA, @NOP, @CLE, @BRO and @BOS on Xmas.
  7. sveumrules
    Varsho has essentially done two things well in his career so far. Hit for extra bases. Among 160 players with 1,000 PA from 2020-22, his 123 ISO+ ranks 55th. Play defense. Among 113 OF with at least 1,000 innings from 2020-22 he’s notched +26.4 UZR (1st), +23 OAA (4th) and +26 DRS (6th), mostly in RF. Hasn’t graded out well behind the plate defensively, so think he’d be more of a third catcher than a primary backup there. Also has a career 112 wRC+ vs RHP compared to a 66 wRC+ vs LHP, so wouldn’t really fit the perceived need for another lefty masher.
  8. sveumrules
    Hiura (115 wRC+) hit better than Winker (109 wRC+) and Tellez (110 wRC+) last year, but it was in a small sample of only 266 PAs with a bunch of alarming (41.7 K%) or unsustainable (.355 BABIP | 29.8 HR/FB%) inputs under the hood. Even with ranking 15th in Barrel% for 2022 (min 200 PA), StatCast still thought Keston “got lucky” with actual AVG/SLG of 226/449 vs expected AVG/SLG of 205/425. Among 247 players with at least 1,000 PA from 2019-22, Winker (12.7 BB% | 17.8 K%) ranks 14th in BB/K ratio, Rowdy (8.6 BB% | 22.1 K%) is essentially average at 131st, while Keston (7.4 BB% | 36.0 K%) comes in 236th. Those plate discipline profiles are a big part of why Steamer gives Winker (122 wRC+) and Rowdy (123 wRC+) better projections than Hiura (99 wRC+) for 2023.
  9. sveumrules
    Potential post-trade lineup with (2023 Steamer Projections) Yelich (119 OPS+) Frelick (111 OPS+) Adames (111 OPS+) Winker (122 OPS+) Rowdy (123 OPS+) Contreras (115 OPS+) Urias (110 OPS+) Mitchell (99 OPS+) Turang (94 OPS+)
  10. sveumrules
    FanGraphs has BU (bunts) and BUH (bunt hits) headers under the "More Batted Ball" tab on the player pages. This particular tab doesn't show up on the leaderboards though. They also have BUH% under the "Batted Ball" tab which does show up on their leaderboards. EDIT: looks like BUH does show up on the Batted Ball leaderboards as well. Juan Pierre at 217 (34% success rate) has the most since 2002. Carlos Gomez is 4th at 105 (42.3% success rate)... https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=1000&type=2&season=2022&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2002-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=12,d
  11. sveumrules
    My best guess would be we didn’t have (or weren’t willing to part with) the kind of pitching OAK wanted back for Murphy, while ATL had the pitching but not Esteury, so the A’s probably said something like “figure out amongst yourselves how to put Ruiz together with the ATL pitchers & we’ll send Murphy to whoever does that.”
  12. sveumrules
    Adames has managed a .322 OBP over 2,248 career PAs. Steamer projects him at .316 for 2023. I don’t think Arnold will give him $25M a year either but if Willy’s willing to sign for something like say 6/100 it might be Monty Hall time.
  13. sveumrules
    Adames is a legitimate defensive SS, Hiura is a DH/1B. If Hiura could field as well as Adames his bat would have gotten a lot more opportunities. Since he can’t he is looking like a fringe major leaguer while Adames is in line for a six figure contract.
  14. sveumrules
    Yeah, Kidd used the TO to “draw up” that last OOB play with two seconds left.
  15. sveumrules
    The Adames and Urias trades both involved notable prospects in Rasmussen and Grisham. Wong 5 WAR for 15 million. Narvaez 4.5 WAR for an org depth prospect. Jace 3.5 WAR off the scrap heap. Avisail 3.3 WAR for a lil over 13 million. Renfroe 2.5 WAR for the corpse of JBJ and his 17.5 million in dead money. Boxberger +2.45 WPA for 4.25 million. There have been a number of solid guys via trade / free agency the last few years.
  16. sveumrules
    Bucks with a pretty epic win on the road in Dallas tonight. Giannis fouled out contesting a three, THJ missed all three FTs. Khris gets called for a ticky tack foul on a tipped ball along the sideline, DFS misses both FTs. Bud calls up a great OOB play that leads to an uncontested Brook lay-oop to take the lead. Kidd doesn’t call timeout to advance the ball and Jrue knocks Luka’s dribble out of bounds with like 2.5 seconds left. Bucks totally know the OOB play Kidd is running and Luka has to chuck up a contested prayer from thirty plus feet out before storming off the court amidst a Pigpen dust swirl of grievances and obscenities. Doncic spends so much time complaining his nickname should be The Internet.
  17. sveumrules
    Stearns didn’t really have prospect capital to use until now after dealing for Yelich (& to a lesser extent Adames/Urias/Lauer/Rowdy) and graduating all the arms that have been the foundation of the Brewers recent success. Looking at the FanGraphs WAR leaderboards for 2021-22, here are the best position players that have been dealt at some point in the last two years… Trea Turner (135 wRC+ | 13.1 WAR) Juan Soto (154 wRC+ | 10.9 WAR) Matt Chapman (110 wRC+ | 8.3 WAR) Matt Olson (133 wRC+ | 8.2 WAR) Willy Adames (116 wRC+ | 8.0 WAR) We were never getting Turner or Soto, maybe we could have gotten one of the Matts from OAK last offseason? Even if the Brewers wanted to go “all in” at this point, let’s say deal for Sean Murphy then push payroll and sign Correa to the high AAV opt out heavy deal he got from the Twins last year, we still aren’t the favorites for anything. Our payroll would still be a couple two tree superstars short of LAD, SDP, NYM, ATL, PHI and STL. It would certainly increase our playoff odds, add some excitement and sell some tickets (which is why I personally would do it) but it would still be an uphill battle with lots of luck required along the way to win the NLC or make a deep playoff run.
  18. sveumrules
    Sounds like the roots of your problem are more with the economic structure of MLB or with the budget Mark A gives the front office to work with. We returned 11 of the top 13 pitchers by IP from the pitching staff that was 3rd in rWAR in 2021. They finished 14th in rWAR in 2022. That is not an expected level of regression.
  19. sveumrules
    What moves would you have made? There wasn't a whole lot of wiggle room with all the arbitration raises and it looks like they overextended themselves to a franchise record payroll as it was. Entering 2022, external projection systems all favored the Brewers over the Cardinals to win the division. With hindsight it's easy to see that some moves for additional pitching depth would have been nice since Hader (-3.2 rWAR from 2021), Houser (-3.2 rWAR), Peralta (-2.8 rWAR) and Woodruff (-2.4 rWAR) combined for about 11-12 fewer wins in 2022 than in 2021, but it's tough for even the richest teams to withstand that kind of lost production from their closer and half the rotation in the primes of their careers.
  20. sveumrules
    In 2019 Jansen started 94 games for Toronto at catcher after coming into the season ranked #42 (BA), #65 (MLB) and #89 (BPro) on the various preseason Top 100s. He also started 40 of 60 games in 2020. He then started 33 of the first 57 games behind the dish in 2021 before going on the DL.
  21. sveumrules
    In 2019 Jansen started 94 games for Toronto at catcher after coming into the season ranked #42 (BA), #65 (MLB) and #89 (BPro) on the various preseason Top 100s. He also started 40 of 60 games in 2020. He then started 33 of the first 57 games behind the dish in 2021 before going on the DL.
  22. sveumrules
    Swanson’s career wRC+ is heavily weighed down by 2017-19 (1629 PA | 78 wRC+). Last three years he is at 109 wRC+ over 1613 PA. Adames might be closer to Turner by wRC+, but his WAR totals are 3.7 off from Dansby vs 7.6 off from Trea so I’d say overall he is closer to Swanson at this point.
  23. sveumrules
    Maybe if all you do is watch the standings. It certainly didn’t feel like I was watching a first place club while they were going 25-27 during the two months prior to the deadline. It felt kind of the same as watching them go 29-31 after the deadline.
  24. sveumrules
    Thought they'd sign Xander for sure since he is the worst fielder of the bunch,
  25. sveumrules
    July 31? You didn’t think the team was blah when they were going 25-27 for the two months leading into the deadline after the franchise best 32-18 start? Hader lost 4 games with an 8.31 ERA over 19 appearances during that stretch. I’d say that is notably worse than blah.
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