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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Crazy thing about the Phils is all their big money FA deals (Wheeler, Harper, Realmuto) have gone well for the most part...and they still have just been hanging around .500 for like five years now. As far as thins offseasons big ticket items, Castellanos (117 OPS+, -8 DRS, 0.2 WAR) and Schwarber (106 OPS+, -2 DRS, 0.3 WAR) haven't quite hit enough to offset their brutal defense so far, accounting for almost half of the Phillies MLB worst -22 DRS to start the season.
  2. sveumrules
    It’s really kinda insane how it’s been Burnes in a category of his own (at least among qualifiers) since 2020… rWAR: 11.7 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 10.3 fWAR: 11.4 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 10.9 ERA-: 53 (1st) Scherzer 2nd @ 65 FIP-: 48 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 62 Wheeler comes close in the WARs because he has an extra 44 IP, but when you are 12-14% better than the next best guys in ERA/FIP over the course of almost 300 IP that is a pretty massive gap. Of course deGrom has been a whole other magnitude of ridiculous at 40 ERA- | 39 FIP-, but only 160 IP.
  3. sveumrules
    It’s really kinda insane how it’s been Burnes in a category of his own (at least among qualifiers) since 2020… rWAR: 11.7 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 10.3 fWAR: 11.4 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 10.9 ERA-: 53 (1st) Scherzer 2nd @ 65 FIP-: 48 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 62 Wheeler comes close in the WARs because he has an extra 44 IP, but when you are 12-14% better than the next best guys in ERA/FIP over the course of almost 300 IP that is a pretty massive gap. Of course deGrom has been a whole other magnitude of ridiculous at 40 ERA- | 39 FIP-, but only 160 IP.
  4. sveumrules
    Among catchers Omar is 5th in WAR so far this year, 9th in WAR during his time with the Brewers (2020-present) and 8th in WAR since he started getting regular PAs (2017-present). Outside of 2020, he has been above average with the bat for a catcher every year of his career with his wRC+ ranking 9th since 2017. At this point he has almost 1,800 PAs with the statistical record of a top ten catcher in MLB. That is some deep rooted skepticism.
  5. sveumrules
    Among catchers Omar is 5th in WAR so far this year, 9th in WAR during his time with the Brewers (2020-present) and 8th in WAR since he started getting regular PAs (2017-present). Outside of 2020, he has been above average with the bat for a catcher every year of his career with his wRC+ ranking 9th since 2017. At this point he has almost 1,800 PAs with the statistical record of a top ten catcher in MLB. That is some deep rooted skepticism.
  6. sveumrules
    So when you say real upside you mean power then? Sounds like he has plenty of upside in the hit, field and run (& intangibles for whatever that is or isn’t worth) categories. Brewers scouting department doesn’t seem to think height is an eliminating factor. Frelick, Hedbert & Quero are listed 5’10”, Valerio is 5’ 7”, Urias & Wong 5’ 9” at the MLB level. Almost feels like maybe they think short players are an undervalued player type, especially with the looming automated strike zone where shorter players will have smaller defined zones.
  7. sveumrules
    Who are some players projected to be available around pick #27 that would excite you?
  8. sveumrules
    Small also slipped in the rankings because he didn’t have the high velocity to match his eye popping strikeout totals. Turned out he has elite spin & other qualities that have made his fastball so effective. I believe he has also added velocity since the Brewers drafted him. Brewers also seem to be believers in attack angle, extension & other secondary traits that can help pitchers translate their success at higher levels. Given his size, I wouldn’t be surprised if Campbell checks some of those boxes as well.
  9. sveumrules
    Is the end near or is the end maybe like 8 years away at soonest?
  10. sveumrules
    Is the end near or is the end maybe like 8 years away at soonest?
  11. sveumrules
    Brewers next pick isn't until #63, so I've got no problem with them picking someone they might be higher on than industry consensus. Could be mis-remembering, but wasn't Small considered a reach when we drafted him in the late first round? He's turned out okay so far.
  12. sveumrules
    Out of Burnes, Woodruff and Hader, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Josh is the one who is kept just because even as thee best reliever in the game he will still likely be cheaper to extend or in FA than Corbin/Brandon. My favorite Hader stat is that since 2017 he has the 3rd highest Win Probability Added in MLB. Not among relievers, among all pitchers. Only Scherzer and deGrom are higher & depending on how long Jacob (+15.81 WPA) is injured, Josh (+14.49 WPA) could pass him this year too.
  13. sveumrules
    Out of Burnes, Woodruff and Hader, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Josh is the one who is kept just because even as thee best reliever in the game he will still likely be cheaper to extend or in FA than Corbin/Brandon. My favorite Hader stat is that since 2017 he has the 3rd highest Win Probability Added in MLB. Not among relievers, among all pitchers. Only Scherzer and deGrom are higher & depending on how long Jacob (+15.81 WPA) is injured, Josh (+14.49 WPA) could pass him this year too.
  14. sveumrules
    Out of Burnes, Woodruff and Hader, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Josh is the one who is kept just because even as thee best reliever in the game he will still likely be cheaper to extend or in FA than Corbin/Brandon. My favorite Hader stat is that since 2017 he has the 3rd highest Win Probability Added in MLB. Not among relievers, among all pitchers. Only Scherzer and deGrom are higher & depending on how long Jacob (+15.81 WPA) is injured, Josh (+14.49 WPA) could pass him this year too.
  15. sveumrules
    Out of Burnes, Woodruff and Hader, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Josh is the one who is kept just because even as thee best reliever in the game he will still likely be cheaper to extend or in FA than Corbin/Brandon. My favorite Hader stat is that since 2017 he has the 3rd highest Win Probability Added in MLB. Not among relievers, among all pitchers. Only Scherzer and deGrom are higher & depending on how long Jacob (+15.81 WPA) is injured, Josh (+14.49 WPA) could pass him this year too.
  16. sveumrules
    Brewers looking for a Developer - Baseball Systems if anyone in our midst would like to try & board the mothership… https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/job-posting-milwaukee-brewers-developer-baseball-systems/
  17. sveumrules
    Awesome to see the renewed effort by Stearns & company in DR/VZ starting to make its way stateside. Obviously these things take time with teenagers, but more or less creating a new pipeline of talent in an area where the Brewers previously only had a few scattered “hits” kind of seems like the next logical step after flipping the organizational script on pitching development.
  18. sveumrules
    How is Narvaez April sample outsized? His PAs by month were 79, 52, 82, 76, 79, and 77. The April sample was the same size as every other mon-May month. Why say it was inflated by April (972 OPS) & not that it was deflated by September (427 OPS)? Better yet, why slice it up into smaller unreliable samples at all? Last year Omar posted an .805 OPS vs RHP, since 2018 Omar has posted a .804 OPS vs RHP, that’s probably the best estimate of his true talent level vs RHP. Also curious what metrics had Omar below average behind the plate in 2021 & now regressing as the year went on to boot?
  19. sveumrules
    How is Narvaez April sample outsized? His PAs by month were 79, 52, 82, 76, 79, and 77. The April sample was the same size as every other mon-May month. Why say it was inflated by April (972 OPS) & not that it was deflated by September (427 OPS)? Better yet, why slice it up into smaller unreliable samples at all? Last year Omar posted an .805 OPS vs RHP, since 2018 Omar has posted a .804 OPS vs RHP, that’s probably the best estimate of his true talent level vs RHP. Also curious what metrics had Omar below average behind the plate in 2021 & now regressing as the year went on to boot?
  20. sveumrules
    Narvaez put up 2.8 fWAR for 2.5 million dollars in 2021, that is an incredible value not a sunk cost.
  21. sveumrules
    Narvaez put up 2.8 fWAR for 2.5 million dollars in 2021, that is an incredible value not a sunk cost.
  22. sveumrules
    Narvaez was 4th in framing runs (+8.8) last year & posted +3 DRS, what metrics are you seeing that have him below average? Since Stearns & company took over Brewers catchers are 2nd in MLB in WAR, better than Posey & the Giants, better than JTR & the Phil’s, way better than Sal Perez & the Royals, etc… https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2022&month=35&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2016-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31
  23. sveumrules
    Narvaez was 4th in framing runs (+8.8) last year & posted +3 DRS, what metrics are you seeing that have him below average? Since Stearns & company took over Brewers catchers are 2nd in MLB in WAR, better than Posey & the Giants, better than JTR & the Phil’s, way better than Sal Perez & the Royals, etc… https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2022&month=35&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2016-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31
  24. sveumrules
    Yeah, believe you need Paramount+ to watch the full runs of 1883 & Kingstown. Haven't been watching Kingstown, but episode 7 just dropped for 1883 I believe. Maybe wait a couple weeks until all the episodes have dropped & sign up for a free month trial then cancel? I got P+ for The Challenge: All Stars (which has ruled, so totally worth it). They also have some of the older MTV comedy shows like The State & Wonder Showzen that have been fun to revisit. Wonder Showzen especially just gets funnier & funnier as the world devolves more & more.
  25. sveumrules

    Pizza

    sveumrules replied to homer's topic in Off-Topic Forum

    I can almost guarantee that is because pepperoni just looks nicer than sausage on TV. You get the red to pop on the white cheese. Looks better than brown/gray sausage. Yup. The pepperoni also serves as a subtle subconscious reminder that pizza, much like time itself, is a flat circle. Unless you are in Detroit or Rocky Rococo's, then it's a rectangle.
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