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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Yelich was hurt for a good portion of that sample too though. Before getting hurt he was at 56 PA of 122 wRC+ (greatly aided by a .417 BABIP) and his +0.86 WPA was second on the team behind Turang over the first 15 games. Small sample all around but during the 15 games that Yelich was healthy to start the year (with no Chourio and Vaughn) the team had a 102 wRC+ and scored 5.33 R/G versus a 93 wRC+ and scoring 4.75 R/G over the 36 games that all three of he, Chourio, and Vaughn were injured to start, then back for a bit before Yelich moved to leadoff.
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Yelich moved to primary leadoff guy on May 26th, so coming up on two months now. In that time he has batted leadoff in 38 of the team's 48 games. Since that date Christian is at 198 PA of 231/335/331 (90 wRC+) with a 12.1 BB% and 28.8 K%. His actual .303 wOBA is a perfect match for his .303 xwOBA so StatCast thinks he is getting just what he deserves. The somewhat good news is that he has at least sequenced his few positive outcomes well notching +0.32 Win Probability Added over this recent leadoff stretch with 57 PA of 128 wRC+ with RISP versus 116 PA of 84 wRC+ with the bases empty. The even better news is that even with Christian putting up a below average batting line while serving as the primary leadoff hitter since May 26th (& getting the 3rd most PA on the team since that date) the offense as a whole has hit for a 112 wRC+ (7th) while scoring 5.23 R/G (5th) over that stretch en route to an MLB best 31 W - 17 L record (.646 W%) over those 48 games (though only 24 W - 14 L for a .632 W% in the 38 games Yelich batted lead off). Before Yelich moved to primary leadoff the Brewers were 31 W - 20 L for a .608 W%.
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FanGraphs annual Top 50 Trade Value series kicked off today with each of William Contreras and Kyle Harrison landing in the Honorable Mention section. No Brewers landed in the #41-50 range also released today which leaves Jesus Made (HM last year), Brice Turang (HM last year), Jacob Misiorowski (#35 last year), and Jackson Chourio (#24 last year) as the four Brewers who will likely land somewhere in the remaining Top 40 spots of this year's edition.
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Will be interesting to see where the money lands if that is indeed what is going on. Would think something like Colt Emerson (8/$95M) or Jackson Chourio (8/$82M) is probably too high. Maybe something in the range of Kristian Campbell (8/$60M) or Cooper Pratt (8/$50.75M)? Have to imagine Made is thinking something around Konnor Griffin (9/$140M) or Kevin McGonigle (8/$150M) if he is interested in extending before debuting in MLB.
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My best guess is the sunglasses indicates he just signed an endorsement contract with Ray Ban (based on the style of sunglasses on the emoji, clearly NOT Oakleys). The bulging eyes make me think of Ryan Braun and his prominent sclera, so perhaps he is resurrecting his Affliction offshoot Remetee clothing line with Andrew as the new face?
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Frias dropping out of the Top Twenty and not even showing up on two of the ballots? Some priors need updating.
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Reports are the Mariana Trench has inquired with the Brewers about acquiring more depth.
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Last 58 / Last 200 / Last 246 / Last 297
sveumrules replied to sveumrules's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Your guess is pretty spot on. Of the nine teams with more relief IP than the Brewers going back to May 26th the only other current playoff teams would be TBR (283 IP | 8th) and CHW (315 IP | 3rd). This has kind of been the Brewers MO the last few years as they've transitioned out of the Burnes / Woodruff / Peralta trio into the new wave of young arms... 2020-23 Starters 2862 IP (5th) | 87 ERA- (2nd) | 90 FIP- (4th) +19.09 WPA (3rd) | 55.4 rWAR (3rd) | 50.1 fWAR (3rd) 2020-23 Relievers 1979 IP (23rd) | 91 ERA- (8th) | 97 FIP- (11th) +22.10 WPA (2nd) | 17.7 rWAR (7th) | 13.3 fWAR (12th) 2024-26 Starters 2101 IP (27th) | 90 ERA- (2nd) | 99 FIP- (14th) +9.07 WPA (8th) | 40.0 rWAR (6th) | 31.2 fWAR (12th) 2024-26 Relievers 1673 IP (3rd) | 82 ERA- (2nd) | 90 FIP- (3rd) +22.35 WPA (2nd) | 22.5 rWAR (1st) | 16.0 fWAR (3rd) Kind of wild to consider how good the bullpen has been these last few years with such a heavy workload and a lower percentage of their innings coming from Hader/Williams than the 2020-23 editions. Like many aspects of the Brewers it seems like regression should have already happened some time ago but they just keep on staving it off and improving as a whole year over year. -
Last 58 / Last 200 / Last 246 / Last 297
sveumrules replied to sveumrules's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Last 58 is now up to Last 73 with the Brewers 49 W - 24 L record over that stretch a full three games ahead of the Phillies at 46 W - 27 L over the same time frame. But mainly wanted to bump to point out how much better the bullpen has been over these last 73 games than they were over the first 26... First 26 (107 IP | 5th) 8 Credited Losses | -1.50 WPA (25th) 100 ERA- (16th) | 87 FIP- (6th) 101 K+ (15th) | 118 BB+ (16th) | 64 HR+ (8th) 109 AVG+ (27th) | 95 LOB+ (19th) Last 73 (279 IP | 10th) 8 Credited Losses | +5.68 WPA (1st) 78 ERA- (5th) | 87 FIP- (3rd) 114 K+ (4th) | 110 BB+ (22nd) | 79 HR+ (7th) 86 AVG+ (2nd) | 105 LOB+ (6th) Some nice kismet going on with matching 8 Credited Losses and an 87 FIP- over both stretches. -
Marlins (Perez) vs Brewers (Gasser): 7/19/26, 1:10pm
sveumrules replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
Sometimes it’s better to score last than first. -
Marlins (Perez) vs Brewers (Gasser): 7/19/26, 1:10pm
sveumrules replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
The Brewers are 11 W - 6 L in their last 17 games so their opponent scoring first in 13 of those games hasn't really slowed them down too much. During one of the recent Apple TV games they mentioned the Brewers were the only team in MLB with a winning record when their opponent scores first. I thought that was a pretty telling tidbit as to the quality of team we've been witnessing this season. -
It's pretty wild, really. On May 26th the Cubs lost their 10th game in a row dropping them to last place in the NLC with a 29 W - 26 L record, 4.5 games behind the Brewers. Since then their 26 W - 17 L record is tied for 5th/6th in MLB with the Marlins. The Brewers have gone an MLB best 29 W - 17 L over that same stretch to increase their division lead to the current 6.0 games. During that stretch Cubs pitchers have a 106 ERA- (19th) and 125 FIP- (29th) while their batters have posted a 117 wRC+ (2nd) scoring 5.51 R/G (3rd). During that same stretch Brewers pitchers are at a 91 ERA- (7th) and 92 FIP- (4th) while their batters have posted a 112 wRC+ (8th) scoring 5.26 R/G (5th).
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Using the BF Top 20 for reference, right now I wouldn't slot either of Ebel the Younger or Strosnider ahead of Ebel the Elder at #15. Pratt and Lara should be graduating soon which will open a couple spots (plus whoever gets dealt twixt now and the deadline), but I'd also guess that most will have Frias (currently #18) and probably should have Knoth (currently outside the Top 20) ranked ahead of this year's top two picks in the next round of voting as well.
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Marlins (Perez) vs Brewers (Gasser): 7/19/26, 1:10pm
sveumrules replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
During innings one through five the Brewers have scored 261 runs (9th) and allowed 194 runs (2nd) for a +67 differential. During innings six onward the Brewers have scored 238 runs (1st) and allowed 176 runs (9th) for a +62 run differential. Pretty even up overall, guess it just depends on if you prefer run scoring or run prevention. The Cubs are currently fifth in MLB with a +53 run differential for all of their innings. -
Is that 43.8 K% really promotion worthy or are they short on bodies in Wilson?
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Fri. 7/17: The Boys Are Back in Town
sveumrules replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Made (350 PA) 274/349/439 (108 wRC+) 10.3 BB% | 14.9 K% Chourio (351 PA) 269/322/441 (98 wRC+) 6.6 BB% | 20.2 K% Not quite a one to one comparison as Chourio had to deal with the experimental pre-tacked baseballs they used for the first half of 2023 before switching back to regular balls in the second half (which more or less coincided with Jackson's July surge that year). -
Looks like Leonard peaked around May 12th at 140 PA of 350/432/608 (171 wRC+) with a 9.3 BB% and 16.4 K% under the hood (along with a .391 BABIP) Since then he had 148 PA of 229/313/405 (87 wRC+) with a 10.1 BB% and 21.6 K% under the hood (along with a .258 BABIP). Greg Jones only got 2 PA during his last brief call up so not sure what difference it really would have made when Leonard had already been pretty unimpressive for the last two months now.
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Fri. 7/17: The Boys Are Back in Town
sveumrules replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
CJ Hughes is running a 43.8 K% on the Complex. Out of 1,563 minor leaguers with at least 150 PA this year that ranks 1,556th. Might be a candidate to repeat Arizona if he can't bring that down quite a bit. Brady got 16 games / 66 PA in Carolina after signing in 2025, would guess the plan is similar for Trey this year to get some exposure to Wilson after a brief stay on the Complex. -
Brewers batters have the fewest challenges at 66 (26 by Sanchez alone) and the lowest run value on challenges a +4.7 runs. For a sense of scale MIN is 1st at 125 challenges and CIN is 1st at +12.4 runs to this point. On the flip side the catchers are at 148 challenges behind the plate (3rd) for +7.8 runs (6th). Contreras has 111 pitches challenged (1st) for +5.4 runs (5th) individually. Could be a matter of the team strategy to this point being something along the lines of save the challenges for the catchers behind the dish to aid in the run prevention and only use them at the plate if you feel the call is particularly egregious in a leverage spot (or are Gary Sanchez).
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Going back to 2024 Adamczewski has 792 PA with a strong 16.0 BB% | 18.2 K% while he has gotten more of his ball in play value from a .383 BABIP (11th of 1,083 minor leaguers with at least 700 PA since 2024) versus his .189 Isolated Slugging (178th). When Josh first started breaking out my first thought for a comp as a short lefty hitting 2B who might be bound for LF was something like Scooter Gennett during his two year breakout with the Reds where he had 1,135 PA of 71 BB+ | 99 K+ | 118 AVG+ | 121 ISO+ for a 124 wRC+. Feel like that is pretty close, maybe a little hot on the AVG/ISO sides but Adamczewski will probably walk considerably more. Here are some guys in MLB from 2024 to present with at least 1,000 PA that might be along the lines of what Josh could provide... Ryan O'Hearn (1,377 PA | 124 wRC+) 113 BB+ | 82 K+ | 114 AVG+ | 107 ISO+ Jose Altuve (1,653 PA | 116 wRC+) 95 BB+ | 80 K+ | 113 AVG+ | 102 ISO+ Alec Burleson (1,539 PA | 117 wRC+) 80 BB+ | 63 K+ | 112 AVG+ | 107 ISO+ Spencer Horwtiz (1,087 PA | 126 wRC+) 136 BB+ | 76 K+ | 111 AVG+ | 107 ISO+ William Contreras (1,722 PA | 119 wRC+) 133 BB+ | 81 K+ | 111 AVG+ | 97 ISO+ Fernando Tatis Jr. (1,545 PA | 124 wRC+) 117 BB+ | 91 K+ | 111 AVG+ | 107 ISO+ Christian Yelich (1,235 PA | 124 wRC+) 125 BB+ | 112 K+ | 110 AVG+ | 113 ISO+ Gunnar Henderson (1,809 PA | 127 wRC+) 115 BB+ | 97 K+ | 109 AVG+ | 128 ISO+ Josh Naylor (1,626 PA | 116 wRC+) 99 BB+ | 65 K+ | 109 AVG+ | 108 ISO+ Cody Bellinger (1,628 PA | 117 wRC+) 111 BB+ | 65 K+ | 109 AVG+ | 114 ISO+ Bryan Reynolds (1,768 PA | 117 wRC+) 116 BB+ | 108 K+ | 108 AVG+ | 109 ISO+
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Osiris Ramirez might be another guy along with Lovera to keep an eye after some of the bigger name, higher bonus guys... Diego Frontado (90 PA) 254/427/493 (126 wRC+) 20.0 BB% | 14.4 K% SS (10) 3B (5) 2B (2) Ricki Moneys (143 PA) 291/413/513 (119 wRC+) 16.1 BB% | 16.8 K% SS (19) 3B (5) Leanders Matos (123 PA) 314/407/629 (136 wRC+) 13.0 BB% | 15.4 K% 3B (17) 2B (11) Angeni Fernandez (133 PA) 345/451/482 (130 wRC+) 14.3 BB% | 12.8 K% CF (17) LF (6) 2B (5) Jose Rodriguez (140 PA) 293/407/422 (110 wRC+) 13.6 BB% | 16.4 K% SS (19) 3B (4) 2B (2) Osiris Ramirez (115 PA) 283/426/511 (124 wRC+) 16.5 BB% | 20.0 K% 2B (9) 3B (6) SS (5) Enrique Lovera (131 PA) 210/389/420 (102 wRC+) 21.4 BB% | 19.1 K% CF (21) RF (4)
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Brewers Acquire Lance McCullers Jr. From Astros
sveumrules replied to patrickgpe's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
There is no single move that can change the complexion of a series against the Dodgers. The Brewers could trade for Skubal, Chapman, and Zack Gelof and they would still be underdogs to the Dodgers. -
Brewers Acquire Lance McCullers Jr. From Astros
sveumrules replied to patrickgpe's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
In 2023 he dealt for Mark Canha and Carlos Santana. The team went from an 89 wRC+ and 4.15 R/G thru July 31st with a 57 W - 50 L record (.533 W%) to a 101 wRC+ and 5.16 R/G from August onward with a 35 W - 20 L record (.636 W%) while Canha (121 wRC+) and Carlos (108 wRC+) put up the 3rd and 4th best hitting lines on the team that year after Contreras (126 wRC+) and Yelich (123 wRC+). In 2024 he dealt for Nick Mears and Frankie Montas. Mears didn't do much during the regular season in 2024, but threw 56.2 IP of 84 ERA- | 93 FIP- in 2025 plus four scoreless postseason innings for his Brewers career. Montas did exactly what he was supposed to do, ate innings (his 57.1 IP was tops on the team from August onward) while the team went 8 W - 3 L in his 11 starts. They went from a .565 W% thru July 31st to a .593 W% from August onward. 2025 deadline he didn't need to do as much since earlier season acquisitions Priester and Vaughn had already helped the team to a 64 W - 44 L record (.593 W%) by July 31st, but still went out and upgraded back up catcher with Danny Jansen (78 PA of 119 wRC+) plus picked up Brandon Lockridge who has been a perfectly cromulent 4th OF when healthy at 149 PA of 98 wRC+ for 0.5 WAR. From August onward they went 33 W - 21 L for a .611 W%.

