sveumrules

He proved he can really limit HR at Busch Stadium with only one home run allowed in 67.2 IP for an impossibly low 0.13 HR/9 pitching in STL. Over his other 73 IP everywhere else he has allowed 11 HR for a 1.36 HR/9. Put it all together and those STL innings are doing the heavy lifting for his 3.50 FIP | 84 FIP-. Normalize his HR/fly ball rate to league average via xFIP and he comes in at a 3.94 xFIP | 93 xFIP-. Of course both of those are way more encouraging than his 4.61 ERA (111 ERA-) or 4.41 xERA which are largely the result of him pitching much better with the bases empty (.649 OPS allowed) versus with runners on (.785 OPS allowed) this year, an exaggerated version of his career with a .666 OPS allowed bases empty compared to a .722 OPS allowed with runners on base. League average difference between bases empty OPS (.699) and runners on OPS (.743) during the Universal DH era is about 44 points so it looks like May (56 point difference) has been worse than average out of the stretch as evidenced by his 93 LOB+ this year (72nd of 75 pitchers min. 140 IP) and a 99 LOB+ (131st of 178 pitchers min. 450 IP) for his career. Put it all together and out of 80 pitchers with at least 250 IP the last two years, Dustin's +0.61 difference between his 4.17 FIP and 4.78 ERA is the fifth worst in MLB. I personally wouldn't be interested in a reunion, but I'd imagine some team will give him multiple years and eight figures based on his relative youth and perceived upside.

Definitely maybe. Samples are kind of small and mixed up between multiple players at SS/3B this year with Rengifo, Hamilton, Ortiz, and Pratt splitting time, but the last two years when we've had more regular players at each spot there has been some interesting accounting between DRS and FRV. 2024 Turang (+22 DRS | +5 FRV) Adames (-16 DRS | +1 FRV) Ortiz (+8 DRS | +9 FRV) 2B/SS/3B (+14 DRS | +15 FRV) 2025 Turang (+7 DRS | 0 FRV) Ortiz (-2 DRS | +10 FRV) Durbin (+5 DRS | +1 FRV) 2B/SS/3B (+10 DRS | +11 FRV) Both years the end results for 2B/SS/3B ended up more or less the same overall twixt the two systems, but the individual accounting (especially between SS/2B) varied quite a bit. This year that hasn't been the case at all with +37 DRS between 2B/SS/3B versus only +16 FRV for the same three spots, so its possible that 2024/25 equalling out was more coincidental than something actually baked into the equations. Looks like 2021 (-9 DRS | -20 FRV), 2022 (+13 DRS | -2 FRV), and 2023 (+27 DRS | +15 FRV) align more with the overall 2B/SS/3B results from this year too with DRS being considerably more favorable than FRV. Comparing the two systems for the outfielders as a whole... 2021 (+33 DRS | +7 FRV) 2022 (+14 DRS | +2 FRV) 2023 (+20 DRS | +18 FRV) 2024 (+37 DRS | +20 FRV) 2025 (+2 DRS | +12 FRV) 2026 (+25 DRS | +5 FRV) 2021-26 (+135 DRS | +65 FRV) I tend to think that whatever internal metrics the Brewers might have to measure defense likely spit out results closer to DRS. Going back to 2021 the Brewers -0.31 differential between their 3.95 FIP and 3.64 ERA is the best in MLB ahead of LAD with a 0.29 differential. Knowing that those two really smart teams have shaved three tenths of a run per game over the course of 966 team games leads me to believe that DRS (+262 for MIL, +174 for LAD) is doing a better job of capturing their actual defensive performance than FRV (+105 for MIL, +20 for LAD) does. Obviously with such disparate values the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle, but with the Brewers selling out so hard for run prevention over the last six years I'd think they are doing it because they believe they are saving something like 40 plus runs per season (DRS), versus only like 17 or 18 runs per season (FRV).

MLB has averaged 85.5 playoff games per season during the four years of the current system. Doubt they go back to a system where the maximum would be 21 with majority of the league playing meaningless games for most of September on account of no more Wild Cards. Baseball is a Capitalist enterprise and Capitalism requires infinite growth. What's most likely once they expand to 32 teams will be an NFL inspired set up featuring two Leagues with four Divisions of four teams each. Ideally they wouldn't water down the playoff field further with a seventh team from each League, but Idealism often runs contrary to Capitalism. Maybe they'll go back to the 1969 to 1993 format at some point in the future when the coasts are underwater and they have to cut down on the number of teams due to the Mad Max style nomadic gangs terrorizing what's left of the barren wasteland we used to call home. I, for one, will welcome our Robot Overlords (if that's what it comes to)...

In 2025 the Brewers starting rotation threw 807 IP (26th) of 86 ERA- (4th) | 99 FIP- (12th) and tallied 17.1 rWAR (5th). Peralta (176 IP | 6.1 rWAR), Quintana (131 IP | 1.7 rWAR), and Priester (130 IP | 3.6 rWAR) accounted for 50% of the games started, 54% of the innings pitched, and 66.7% of the rWAR. With all three of those guys gone for different reasons (plus Woodruff getting hurt again, and Sproat bombing, and Harrison flopping in the second half, and Gasser having a rough first half, not to mention the abomination of Dustin May [whoops, just did]) the Brewers starting rotation this year has thrown 779 IP (20th) of 88 ERA- (6th) | 89 FIP- (4th) and tallied 15.9 rWAR (6th). Half the quantity and two turds of the quality gone from last year's rotation? No problem, bout to blow past 97 Wins anyway.

Looks like the offense has continued their upward trajectory over the couple weeks since our last update... September 5th to September 20th 6.46 R/G over 13 games 167 wRC+ with RISP For the season as a whole... .341 OBP (1st) | 10.6 BB% (1st) | 1,793 PA w/RISP (1st) | 119 wRC+ w/RISP (1st) | 645 R w/ RISP (1st) | 5.15 R/G (2nd) | .258 AVG (2nd) | 107 wRC+ (3rd) | +6.37 WPA (3rd) | 0.49 BB/K (3rd) | +8.0 BsR (3rd) | .322 xwOBA (4th) | .145 ISO (25th)

Jason Alexander of 2022 threw 71 innings 5.40 ERA | 5.34 FIP for -0.3 rWAR and -0.3 fWAR. If that is the standard then Shane Drohan easily clears the bar with 120 IP of 4.26 ERA and 3.77 FIP for 1.1 rWAR and 1.9 fWAR. His 80th percentile ZiPS before the season was a 4.06 ERA and 1.1 WAR. Misio's 80th percentile ZiPS was for a 3.27 ERA and 2.8 WAR, he has put up a 1.89 ERA and 6.8 rWAR. Henderson's 80th percentile ZiPS was for a 3.45 ERA and 1.8 WAR, he has put up a 2.51 ERA and 3.4 rWAR. Uribe's 80th percentile ZiPS was for a 2.48 ERA and 1.8 WAR, he has put up a 2.08 ERA and 2.3 rWAR. Patrick's 80th percentile ZiPS was for a 3.77 ERA and 2.2 WAR, he has put up a 3.13 ERA and 2.5 rWAR. Megill's 80th percentile ZiPS was for a 2.35 ERA and 1.5 WAR, he has put up a 2.76 ERA and 1.6 rWAR. DL Hall's 80th percentile ZiPS was for a 3.35 ERA and 1.1 WAR, he has put up a 2.09 ERA and 1.6 rWAR. That's over half the staff pitching to their 80th percentile or well above. Part of the "midas touch" is the continued development or sustained success of the pitchers already in the organization. If we're dinging Harrison for a Jekyll Hyde season with 57 IP of 38 ERA- | 58 FIP- followed by 55 IP of 169 ERA- | 138 FIP- (still shook out to 1.4 rWAR and a 14 W - 10 L record in his starts) then we should likewise give some credit for Gasser having a Hyde Jekyll season with 46 IP of 126 ERA- | 126 FIP- followed by 50 IP of 82 ERA- | 82 FIP- (shaking out to 1.2 rWAR and a 13 W - 7 L record in his starts) before throwing seven scoreless this afternoon.

The Brewers have the youngest staff in all of MLB per BRef and are allowing 3.90 runs per game, 5th lowest in MLB. Their 3.58 xERA is the lowest, 3.59 ERA is 2nd lowest, 3.61 SIERA is 2nd lowest, 3.72 FIP is 3rd lowest. 25.9 K% is the highest, .222 average allowed is 3rd lowest, 1.19 WHIP is 4th lowest, 103.9 EV90 is 2nd lowest, 37.2 HardHit% is 5th lowest. If you are bringing up a guy like Kuhnel as some kind of failure, why no mention of Garrett Stallings (81 IP of 80 FIP- in AAA, 14 IP of 42 FIP- in MLB) as a success? In the minors... Tyson Hardin (119 IP of 70 FIP-), Josh Knoth (87 IP of 87 FIP-), Cameron Wagoner (42 IP of 58 FIP-), Bishop Letson (94 IP of 91 FIP-), JD Thompson (61 IP of 81 FIP-), Braylon Owens (93 IP of 73 FIP-), Jaron DeBerry (128 IP of 105 FIP-), Jack Seppings (77 IP of 90 FIP-), Wande Torres (122 IP of 88 FIP-), Ethan Dorchies (113 IP of 101 FIP-), Jayden Dubanewicz (79 IP of 94 FIP-), Andrew Healy (82 IP of 89 FIP-), Jose Meneses (57 IP of 63 FIP-), Miqueas Mercedes (79 IP of 87 FIP-), Diustin Mayorquin (69 IP of 97 FIP-), Derlin Garcia (56 IP of 75 FIP-), Raymond Sarmiento (48 IP of 78 FIP-), Alexander Mercedes (34 IP of 73 FIP-), and Paul Hoff (44 IP of 66 FIP-) all turned in varying degrees of encouraging seasons with most of them being among the youngest pitchers in their respective leagues.

Gordon hasn't even pitched yet.

No doubt the Brewers will always be the underdog to the Dodgers, but they have been closing the gap. Before Game 7 of the 2018 NLCS the FanGraphs Playoff Odds gave the Brewers a 9.0 WinWS%. Before the start of the NLCS last year the FanGraphs Playoff Odds gave the Brewers an 11.4 WinWS%. Today, with eight games left in the regular season, the FanGraphs Playoff Odds give the Brewers a 14.8 WinWS%.

The point(s) were to get good regular season performances from May and Romero, en route to winning the Division, holding a Top Two seed to secure a bye, and then contributing towards winning some playoff games after that. The first hasn't come to fruition, the second has, the third looks imminent, and we'll find out about the fourth in October.

There's essentially a zero percent chance that we win the May/Romero trade from a surplus value standpoint. While neither have pitched particularly well combining for 40 IP of 0.1 rWAR and -0.57 WPA, it hasn't really impacted the bottom line. The Brewers went 69 W - 43 L (.616 W%) before the deadline and have gone 27 W - 15 L (.643 W%) since. How much of a "win" the trade could possibly end up being was almost always going to mostly come down to what happens in the playoffs. Here's to hoping Dustin & JoJo can get things turned around (or just run into some small sample luck) en route to eleven October wins.

If MLB and the players can agree on the implementation of an International Draft then previous agreements are probably out the window. Also wouldn't be surprised if an International Draft does happen that (outside of big bonus guys at the very top) teams mostly stick with selecting the guys they are already familiar with from the old system and had agreements with. I'm not vouching for the system, it is certainly corrupt, but it isn't on an island (punintentional) unto itself either. 14 year olds get college scholarship offers in football and basketball stateside, I'd guess if they are good enough to get scholarship offers that early that NIL money is being discussed as well.

Not sure about outsized affection, but that 4.09 FIP shakes out to an on the nose average 100 FIP-, pretty good for somebody who was generally one of the last guys in the pen when he was healthy enough to pitch. He also had a 2.12 ERA (unsustainable small sample sure) and +0.50 Win Probability Added, which are generally better indicators about how most fans will feel about a reliever. In lots of ways he was a pretty good microcosm of what the Brewers are trying to do from a batted ball standpoint too. Going back to 2024 the Brewers have one of the higher fly ball rates in MLB (105 FB+ | t-2nd). Fly balls result in a lower BABIP than line drives or ground balls, so all those fly balls paired with top end OF defense (+63 DRS and +38 FRV are both 4th since 2024) have helped them run a 95 BABIP+ that is tied for the lowest mark in MLB over the last three years. Limiting BABIP helps strand runners, and the Brewers have an MLB best 105 LOB+ since 2024. Stranding runners helps teams beat their FIP, and the Brewers -0.34 ERA/FIP gap since 2024 is second best in MLB. Rob Z ran a crazy high fly ball rate (129 FB+) which helped him suppress BABIP majorly (72 BABIP+) and strand runners frequently (121 LOB+) resulting in an ERA much better than his peripherals would imply. Of course all that was bound to regress with more exposure, but injuries prevented that from happening.

Since Pratt was called up on June 16th the Brewers infield has collectively hit .284 (1st) with a .361 OBP (1st), though their .149 ISO is only 20th. Put it all together and their 121 wRC+ is second among all infields over that time frame just behind the Padres with a 123 wRC+. In a similar vein, since May 4th when Chourio and Vaughn returned to the lineup (freeing up Bauers to spend more time in the OF) the Brewers outfield has collectively hit .264 (3rd) with a .333 OBP (4th), and .160 ISO (14th). Put it all together and their 109 wRC+ is fifth among all outfields over that time frame. Even with a down year for Contreras (113 wRC+) the Brewers backstops have collectively hit for a 116 wRC+ that ranks third for the season among all catching corps. Obviously that just leaves DH, but even there the numbers outpace the doom and gloom by a decent margin. As a whole Brewers DH have hit for an even 100 wRC+ (16th), the same as the Braves. One of the Padres (83 wRC+ | 27th) or DBacks (79 wRC+ | 29th) will make the NL playoff field with bottom of the barrel DH production on the year. The other thing with Yelich is that while the season as a whole is no doubt ugly (94 wRC+ | 0.2 WAR), those are context neutral measures. Christian's +1.48 Win Probability Added is fourth on the team behind Turang (+3.81), Bauers (+2.58), and Mitchell (+1.80) while being slightly ahead of Chourio (+0.88) and Contreras (+0.80). Some of his situational splits this year... Bases Empty 241 PA of 82 wRC+ Runners On 232 PA of 105 wRC+ RISP 144 PA of 128 wRC+ Low Leverage 214 PA of 69 wRC+ Medium Leverage 212 PA of 103 wRC+ High Leverage 47 PA of 162 wRC+ Two Outs 152 PA of 56 wRC+ One Out 144 PA of 100 wRC+ No Outs 177 PA of 120 wRC+ Trailing in Game 139 PA of .748 OPS (117 sOPS+) Late and Close 67 PA of .829 OPS (137 sOPS+) Runner on 3rd, less than 2 outs 32 PA of 1.045 OPS (148 sOPS+) Put all those ascending situational splits together and Yelich's 1.79 Clutch score is 3rd on the FanGraphs leaderboard for all of MLB this season.

Too many blowout wins, 31 W - 11 L in games decided by five or more runs. Some of the other contenders in the same split... CHC (34 W - 15 L) LAD (30 W - 15 L) NYY (32 W - 17 L) ATL (25 W - 18 L) BOS (27 W - 19 L) PHI (28 W - 22 L) SDP (22 W - 21 L) TBR (21 W - 23 L) ARI (20 W - 23 L)

Yeah, FanGraphs has been way under-estimating the Brewers run scoring capability for the last few years as well. Since Murphy took over the Brewers have scored 4.98 R/G over 475 team games with an upward year over year trend going back to 2022 (4.48 to 4.49 to 4.80 to 4.98 to 5.19 R/G so far this year). FanGraphs has the Brewers rest of season projection at 4.66 R/G, which is even considerably lower than their 4.98 BaseRuns estimate so far this year.

Ketson Huira

After October 19th 2018 the Brewers were tied with the Dodgers at three games each in the NLCS. One win at home away from the World Series. At that point there were only three teams left to divide up the World Series Odds amongst with Boston already having won the ALCS. FanGraphs computers said the WS Win percentages were BOS (64.9%), LAD (26.1%), MIL (9.0%). This year we still have a dozen games left and like half the league still has some kind of WS odds with the playoff field yet to be decided. Right now the FanGraphs computers think the Brewers have a 13.6% chance to win the World Series, greater than when they were just one game away back in 2018. Second best in MLB behind the Dodgers (25.7%) and ahead of the Rays (10.1%). We've come a long way, there is a long way yet to go.

Rodriguez has always been homer prone with a career 1.21 HR9 entering the season, but yeah, his 2.18 HR9 this year is almost double that. Last year 0.67 HR9 was league average for the Southern League, this year it has been 1.23 HR9. FanGraphs has ERA- | FIP- | xFIP- on the player pages which accounts for the league environment and Rodriguez is at 96 ERA- | 111 FIP- | 105 xFIP- which considering he has thrown the most innings in the Southern League as the youngest pitcher (besides Cam Caminiti who got called up for a half dozen starts at the end of the year) is perfectly cromulent. Worst case he is probably like Carlos Rodriguez where he ends up as an up/down arm because of the lack of strikeouts and accompanying HR propensity is too much to overcome against MLB hitters. Best realistic case scenario is maybe something more like Bryse Wilson where he is able to carve out a decent career as a backend starter / long man out of the pen.

Googling back through the years Vegas preseason over/unders haven't really been all that much better or different than FanGraphs preseason projections... 2017 FG: 70 LV: 69.5 2018 FG: 80 LV: 83.5 2019 FG: 81 LV: 86.5 2021 FG: 83 LV: 83.5 2022 FG: 90 LV: 88.5 2023 FG: 86 LV: 85.5 2024 FG: 80 LV: 77.5 2025 FG: 81 LV: 82.5 2026 FG: 83 LV: 84.5 Looks like the over would have hit eight of the last nine seasons in Vegas too.

LF has been trending down offensively for a bit now and they generally get dinged a little from a WAR standpoint too because of the negative positional adjustment. The first three seasons (2002 to 2004) that FanGraphs has positional splits league average for LF was a 113 wRC+, though Barry Bonds putting up 1,679 PA of 233 wRC+ over those three seasons may have skewed things upward a bit. The next six years (2005 to 2010) it dipped down to between a 105 and 109 wRC+, before a further dip the next seven years (2011 to 2017) to between a 97 and 105 wRC+. 2018 to 2023 saw a nice bounce back for LF sitting between a 104 and 107 wRC+ for five of the six years, and now the last three years it's been at 102 wRC+. Universal DH is probably eating into the LF pool some too as more guys would have been forced into faking LF if they were on a NL club during the 2010's.

If I added & divided right the Win predictions in this thread averaged out to 91 (which the Brewers just hit today)

Because everyone's body is unique and most players have a natural swing path they are comfortable with? Why does any big, strong guy like Yandy Diaz (125 GB+ | 77 FB+ since 2021), Elly De La Cruz (116 GB+ | 81 FB+), Vlad Junior (114 GB+ | 88 FB+), Josh Bell (114 GB+ | 89 FB+), Nathaniel Lowe (112 GB+ | 83 FB+), etc hit so many balls on the ground? Mitchell only had 666 PA in the minor leagues, and another 910 PA in MLB. He's still pretty green for a 28 year old with MLB experience in parts of five seasons now. Still plenty of time to try and make adjustments now that he is just getting his first full season under the belt. Even with all his warts (too many ground balls and strikeouts, too BABIP reliant) and injury issues Garrett is one of 118 players with at least 850 PA in the outfield since 2022, some of his ranks... 865 PA (118th) | 5.7 WAR (52nd) 32.3 K% (114th) | .381 BABIP (1st) 53.0 GB% (5th) | 21.8 LD% (17th) +6.6 BsR (34th) | 10.4 BB% (24th) 36.4 HardHit% (24th) | .161 ISO (73rd) 113 wRC+ (35th) | +7.6 DEF (27th) Somewhat interestingly, Tyrone Taylor also has 5.7 WAR playing outfield since 2022. His +10.7 DEF and +7.1 BsR outpace Mitchell slightly, and his 1,482 PA are a full extra season of playing time, so why doesn't he have more WAR then? Because his fly ball heavy approach (42.8 FB% | 27th) has produced a below average .282 BABIP (89th), he rarely walks (5.1 BB% | 110th), and even with all the extra fly balls he barely hit for more power with a .173 ISO (56th). Put it all together and Taylor has a 93 wRC+ (89th) with a .289 OBP (105th).

Dang, catching strays for being too positive about the team with the best record in MLB this year, and last year, and overall since 2024 (after a game where we clinched the Season Series against the Cubs with another comeback win no less). Never change, IGTs. Baseball is a game of primarily negative outcomes. The Brewers have made outs in 66.8% of their plate appearances, and their .332 OBP is second best in MLB. Silver linings, I guess. The internet is a cesspool of negativity, who wants to contribute to that? Has Murphy got a single lineup right all season? The Brewers have posted a 107 wRC+ and scored 5.03 runs per game (both 3rd in MLB) despite his malfeasance. That is above my personal expectations entering the season, so I see it as more of a reason for celebration than derision. BaseRuns thinks they should only have scored about 4.87 runs per game, so the numbers back up that the offense has overachieved their inputs (again, they were +0.21 R/G last year). That extra +0.16 runs per game this year is the third largest positive differential between BaseRuns and actual R/G behind the White Sox (+0.17) and Cardinals (+0.20). This year, the Brewers are 1st in PA | 2nd in wRC+ | 1st in RBI with RISP, since Murphy took over in 2024 the Brewers are 1st in PA | 2nd in wRC+ | 1st in RBI with RISP. You don't think he has anything to do with that?

Ah, 6'5" lefty with big K (and BB) numbers. Makes sense.