sveumrules

Looking through the MLBTR Top 35 Deadline Trade Candidates the only guys I am really interested in (that I'd also consider good bets to actually be traded) are Aroldis Chapman and Joe Ryan. I guess maybe Antonio Senzatela COL (44 IP of 65 ERA- | 76 FIP-) for bullpen depth? Reid Detmers, Jose Soriano, and Zach Neto could all be varying degrees of interesting...but the Angels probably aren't dealing any of them. Looking at relievers not on the MLBTR list with good stats so far this year on likely sellers some other possible candidates could maybe be... Huascar Brazoban NYM (34 IP of 32 ERA- | 59 FIP-) Luke Weaver NYM (35 IP of 51 ERA- | 59 FIP-) Brennan Bernardino COL (31 IP of 61 ERA- | 66 FIP-) Garrett Whitlock BOS (27 IP of 60 ERA- | 68 FIP-) Daniel Lynch IV KCR (34 IP of 61 ERA- | 78 FIP-)

But did you tell the Spouse about the spray paint pants (& the moustache) ??

Pretty sure they had some hitter friendly affiliates in the 1980's too. I remember thinking Billy Jo Robidoux (.342 with 23 HR and 132 RBI) and Joey Meyer (.304 with 37 HR and 123 RBI) were bound for stardom when I saw their 1985 El Paso stats on the back of their baseball cards, to say nothing of their visages on the front.

My whole thought process was… - hey, the Brewers won another game where Perkins started - I wonder what their record is when Perkins starts? (looks it up) - hmm, that’s higher than I expected given all the consternation whenever Perkins starts

Dropping from the 2nd best W% in MLB down to (gasp) only the 5th best W% in MLB when Perkins starts is a much smaller drop off than the over the top doom & gloom IGT reactions would indicate any time he is penciled into the lineup.

Limping along with the second best winning percentage and run differential in MLB. Just competitively enough to stay afloat for a 5.5 game division lead and a 100 to 101 win pace.

Last year the Brewers went 46 W - 38 L against teams .500 or better for a .548 W%, against teams under .500 they went 51 W -27 L for a .654 W%. So far this year they are 29 W - 18 L against teams .500 or better for a .617 W%, against teams under .500 they are 22 W - 13 L for a .629 W%. This year's model has played much better so far against the other good teams than last year's model did. Probably because this team has just been across the board better in the macro... Runs Scored per Game 2025: 4.98 2026: 5.16 Runs Allowed per Game 2025: 3.91 2026: 3.67 Run Differential per Game 2025: +1.07 2026: +1.49 The 2025 pitchers were getting a lot more help from their defense with a 3.59 ERA | 3.91 FIP while this year's staff has more dominant peripherals at a 3.41 ERA | 3.54 FIP. 2025 offense posted a 107 wRC+ full season, this year's model is only at a 105 wRC+ so far but with pretty drastic splits between thru May 3rd with no Chourio/Vaughn (95 wRC+) versus putting up a 112 wRC+ since they returned to the lineup.

If I counted right the Brewers have faced 32 RHP since Vaughn came back from injury. He has started 15 of those 32 games, or 46.9%. The Brewers have gone 8 W - 7 L in those 15 games, and 13 W - 4 L in the 17 games Vaughn didn't start against RHP since his return. Vaughn as PH this year 11 PA of 333/455/556 (183 wRC+) Frelick as PH this year 8 PA of 429/500/429 (172 wRC+) Vaughn vs RHP 2026 82 PA of 260/329/356 (94 wRC+) Frelick vs RHP 2026 203 PA of 264/337/356 (96 wRC+) Vaughn vs RHP 2025-26 250 PA of 261/320/423 (106 wRC+) Frelick vs RHP 2025-26 623 PA of 277/345/408 (112 wRC+)

Today was Blake Perkins 23rd start of the season. The Brewers have gone 13 W - 10 L (.565 W%) in those 23 games. The Rays are currently 5th in MLB with a .571 W%.

Here's my best attempt at trust tiers... Guys Who Should Get MVP Votes Turang, Contreras, Chourio Solid Starters Bauers, Vaughn, Mitchell Solid Starters Having Down Years Yelich, Frelick (Sal picking it up this month) Perfectly Cromulent Backup Catcher Sanchez Left Side of the Infield Pratt, Hamilton, Ortiz 13th Man Perkins [barring injury, at least eleven of those thirteen probably aren't going anywhere regardless of how much any of us trusts them or not. Would be nice to find one reliable bat for the Left Side of the Infield mix, but not sure if that guy will be on the trade market this year.] Playoff Rotation Misio, Harrison, Woodruff, Henderson High Leverage Relievers Megill, Uribe, Ashby Other Options Drohan, Sproat, Koenig, Patrick, Anderson, Hall [right now I would say my personal trust line ends at Koenig, though Patrick (182 IP of 88 ERA- | 90 FIP-), Anderson (102 IP of 80 ERA- | 99 FIP-) and Hall (112 IP of 89 ERA- | 100 FIP-) wouldn't necessarily be the worst last three guys in the bullpen given their run prevention history with the Brewers (even if the peripherals have been less impressive). Personally I'd expect them to add a couple two tree arms to the mix at the deadline (Tyson Hardin is the only other guy currently in the org that I think has a chance to be impactful rest of season) with hopefully at least one acquisition that can confidently slot into the High Leverage group.]

From 2017 to 2021 BRef has Gallo down for 2,248 PA of 117 OPS+ for 14.6 WAR despite his 36% K rate. Gallo also got a WAR boost as the rare 3TO guy with good soft skills at +10 on the bases and +34 in the field over that peak run. If Fischer ends up at 1B with the other infield talent in the system he’ll probably need to hit for closer to a 125 OPS+ to get similar value as Gallo.

With some of the DSL teens coming up on 100 PA now for the season, thought it might be a good time to transcribe some stats for some of the more interesting prospects (plus one 40 Man post-prospect) currently outside of the BF Top 20 throughout the system. Order is more or less descending by level / playing time... HITTERS Eddys Leonard (246 PA) 291/377/512 (132 wRC+) 9.8 BB% | 17.5 K% | 8/4 SB Akil Baddoo (97 PA) 275/392/600 (153 wRC+) 16.5 BB% | 28.9 K% | 3/1 SB Mike Boeve (282 PA) 279/369/398 (109 wRC+) 12.1 BB% | 19.9 K% | 9/1 SB Dylan O'Rae (273 PA) 314/431/414 (135 wRC+) 15.4 BB% | 16.5 K% | 36/8 SB Matthew Wood (212 PA) 224/393/466 (131 wRC+) 20.3 BB% | 11.3 K% | 17.0 CS% Darrien Miller (167 PA) 252/431/512 (153 wRC+) 16.8 BB% | 21.6 K% | 11.3 CS% Damon Keith (133 PA) 305/383/542 (144 wRC+) 8.3 BB% | 29.3 K% | 7/1 SB Josiah Ragsdale (259 PA) 322/440/512 (146 wRC+) 16.6 BB% | 24.7 K% | 24/2 SB Eric Bitonti (255 PA) 269/398/490 (126 wRC+) 17.3 BB% | 34.9 K% | 15/0 SB Handelfry Encarnacion (333 PA) 245/384/416 (117 wRC+) 17.1 BB% | 19.5 K% | 16/9 SB Brailyn Antunez (183 PA) 288/388/545 (120 wRC+) 9.3 BB% | 33.3 K% | 10/3 SB Kenny Fenelon (160 PA) 270/425/516 (130 wRC+) 19.4 BB% | 36.3 K% | 19/7 SB Juan Martinez (148 PA) 367/486/608 (166 wRC+) 16.9 BB% | 11.5 K% | 20/3 SB Gerlyn Payano (80 PA) 226/463/472 (134 wRC+) 27.5 BB% | 15.0 K% | 7/2 SB Ricki Moneys (95 PA) 269/389/526 (110 wRC+) 15.8 BB% | 16.8 K% | 10/1 SB Angeni Fernandez (91 PA) 319/462/403 (123 wRC+) 18.7 BB% | 13.2 K% | 8/5 SB Diego Frontado (79 PA) 298/474/579 (153 wRC+) 21.5 BB% | 13.9 K% | 11/2 SB PITCHERS Stiven Cruz (36 IP) 60 ERA- | 68 FIP- 30.0 K% | 5.7 BB% Edwin Jimenez (22 IP) 41 ERA- | 66 FIP- 25.3 K% | 3.6 BB% Cameron Wagoner (19 IP) 47 ERA- | 90 FIP- 32.9 K% | 6.3 BB% Braylon Owens (58 IP) 71 ERA- | 74 FIP- 31.5 K% | 10.0 BB% Jayden Dubanewicz (35 IP) 54 ERA- | 70 FIP- 28.1 K% | 8.9 BB% Josh Knoth (27 IP) 52 ERA- | 70 FIP- 25.7 K% | 10.6 BB% Jose Meneses (37 IP) 41 ERA- | 57 FIP- 33.6 K% | 8.9 BB% Anfernny Reyes (22 IP) 43 ERA- | 60 FIP- 37.3 K% | 8.4 BB% ...could have easily typed out another five to ten intriguing performers at the lower levels, but that's 25 and had to draw the line somewhere. Most honorable of mentions to 17yo Santiago Martinez who put up 11.2 IP of 12 ERA- | 36 FIP- in the DSL before leaving his third start early with an apparent injury. Who else did I miss? The three guys I voted for last time that didn't make the Top 20 were O'Rae, Knoth, and Juan Martinez. Putting this all together think the next three or four on the cusp would probably be Frontado, Dubanewicz, Owens, and Ragsdale for me.

Right, but they aren't 1st in PA and 1st in IP, they are 6th and 11th, so they aren't putting up their WAR totals on quantity of opportunity alone. From 2017-22 when the Brewers won at least 86 games every full season their Age 28 and under position players were 15th in WAR (& 26th in PA) while their Age 28 and under pitchers were 2nd in rWAR (& 15th in IP). The 2024-present Age 28 and under position players put up more WAR in 403 team games than the 2017-22 Age 28 and under position players did over 871 team games. That's a pretty objective measure of how much the Brewers have improved at identifying, acquiring and developing young hitting talent recently compared to earlier iterations (while the pitching has been humming along for a decade now). With the current Brewers showing a demonstrated ability to hit with more frequency on their evaluations of young players, the overall historical miss rate on prospects from 7 to 10 years ago is less relevant to them than it is to other franchises who haven't been able to get those same kind of top end results.

Of course the hit rate for Top 100 prospects is less than 100%, that means if a team can better identify, acquire, and develop those players (plus the myriad players who never get recognized on those lists) they will probably have a pretty serious leg up on their competition. Since Matt Arnold took over in 2023, the Brewers have gotten an MLB best 69.3 WAR from position players in their Age 28 and under seasons (second place is the Cubs down at 55.3 WAR). Some of the Brewers individual category rankings on that leaderboard are... 15,530 PA (6th) | 1,961 R (1st) | +113.3 DEF (1st) | 9.4 BB% (2nd) | 45.1 GB% (t-2nd) | 469 SB (3rd) | +36.5 BsR (3rd) | .326 OBP (4th) | .303 BABIP (6th) | 101 wRC+ (13th) | .140 ISO (28th) The Brewers have also demonstrated they can identify, acquire, and develop these young players via different means as well with guys like Contreras & Adames acquired via trade as MLB players with some degree of success but also some lingering questions. Then there are Chourio, Turang, Frelick, and Mitchell (and now Pratt) who have been homegrown. Guys like Ortiz & Durbin were acquired in maligned star player trades, Perkins & Collins were acquired for essentially free, Vaughn was a change of scenery candidate & though he doesn't meet the Age 28 cutoff Bauers is another recent success story. The pitchers in their Age 28 and under seasons haven't been quite as good going back to Arnold taking over in 2023, their 48.5 rWAR is only second (behind CLE with 60.6 rWAR). Some of the Brewers individual category rankings on that leaderboard are... 2827 IP (11th) | 85 ERA- (1st) | 112 K+ (1st) | 92 AVG+ (1st) | 106 LOB+ (1st) | +22.58 RE24 (1st) | +23.13 WPA (3rd) | 3.85 xERA (3rd) | 94 WHIP+ (4th) | 94 FIP- (4th) In addition to having an MLB roster rife with young talent, the Brewers have a farm system that is generally regarded as among the best in MLB currently. What all that tells me, is that whatever the leaguewide hit rate is for prospects (Top 100 or otherwise), the Brewers are more or less setting the top end of the curve.

"If you go three for 38 with RISP over a four game stretch, and still win all four games...you might be a pretty good baseball team." -Jeff Foxworthy, probably.

The nice thing about having such a deep and good team is Turang can go on a thirty game bender and they still go 20 W - 10 L over that stretch anyway.

In 2019, when the Brewers had the eventual World Series Champions four outs from elimination in the Wild Card Game, their seasonal run differential was +3. During the Brewers recent three game sweep of the Reds their run differential was +4. In the 2017 and 2022 seasons where the Brewers just missed the playoffs with 86 wins, their seasonal run differentials were +35 and +37. Over the 26 games in May of this year when the Brewers went 19 W - 7 they had a +36 run differential. During the 2018, 2021, and 2023 Division Championship seasons the Brewers had seasonal run differentials of +95, +115, and +81. Over their last 52 games the 2026 Brewers have an MLB best 36 W - 16 L record with a +109 run differential.

Base running is definitely a big part of it, the Brewers +43.1 BsR is best in MLB since 2023. There is the old joke about home runs being rally killers, but I think the Brewers have somewhat taken that to heart and are testing the bounds of the theory somewhat. Since 2023 their .327 OBP is 2nd in MLB, but their 578 HR and .147 isolated slugging are both 25th. They've scored the 6th most runs in MLB anyway. High OBP + low Power = 5,874 PA with RISP since 2023 (most in MLB) hitting for a 117 wRC+ with RISP (2nd) ending up with 2,116 runs scored with RISP (1st). Their overall 44.8 Swing% is also lowest in MLB since 2023. So in the macro you've got a bunch of good base runners, frequently on base, who rarely swing, but few XBH to move them multiple bases at a time, all combining to put a bunch of pressure on opposing pitching staffs. They might not crack every time, but with the Brewers posting a 331 W - 233 L record since 2023 (2nd best in MLB) it has worked 58.7% of the time anyway (or an MLB best 60.8% of the time since the start of last year).

Yeah, sequencing is just the order that outcomes occur. For instance, a team has a walk, single, double, and home run in an inning. How many runs did they score? Could be anywhere from one to four depending on the order of those four events. Runs per game credits you with however many runs you actually scored, easy. BaseRuns assigns each outcome an average run value based on that season's offensive environment, then uses those values to estimate how many runs a team should have scored (or allowed on the pitching side). The general idea is that teams exert minimal control over their sequencing, so if a team is scoring above their BaseRuns estimate they are probably due for some regression, whereas if they are below their BaseRuns estimate they could be due for some upcoming positive fortune. But much like the Brewers have proven they can "create their own luck" on the run prevention side with a 4.02 FIP but a 3.62 ERA since 2023, they are also starting to look like they've maybe figured out how to "create their own luck" on the hitting side too scoring +0.40 R/G over their BaseRuns estimate so far this year, and +0.20 R/G over their BaseRuns estimate for their last 564 games going back to 2023.

Right, prospect rankings vary across platforms, that's why it's best to look at each individual player's specific skillset and how that might fit within the larger context of organizational strengths and weaknesses. Some veteran players available at the deadline are worth the prospects, some aren't. I personally don't believe that Paredes is worth Adamczewski/Hardin. Guess all we can really do is wait to see if the Astros end up trading Paredes before the deadline, what kind of return they get if they do, and how that return compares to Brewers farmhands if it isn't the Brewers they trade him to.

The Brewers have one of the deepest systems in all of MLB, so not being among the Brewers top echelon doesn't necessarily make them any less valuable. There are 1,002 hitters in all of the minor leagues with at least 700 PA going back to 2024 when Adamczewski debuted. His 157 wRC+ is 2nd on that leaderboard, just ahead of Luke Adams (currently #13 on the BF Top 20) in 3rd with a 155 wRC+. Kevin McGonigle (167 wRC+) is in the #1 spot. In 2025 Hardin was one of 415 pitchers with at least 90 IP in the minor leagues. His 2.35 FIP was 3rd on the leaderboard, his 5.65 K/BB ratio was 5th. Since being promoted to Nashville this year he is one of 84 pitchers in the International League with at least 40 IP. His 3.39 FIP again comes in 3rd, while his 3.42 K/BB ratio again comes in 5th. His 2.25 ERA is 4th, his 0.95 WHIP is 3rd, his .183 average against is 5th. Adamczewski might be the best pure hitter in the system, Hardin is certainly the most MLB ready SP option in the system, I wouldn't be looking to deal either of them for 1.5 years of one dimensional Paredes. Looking at the current rankings here my best offer for Paredes would probably be Blake Burke (#10) plus whoever they like best among Coleman Crow (#16), Jaron DeBerry (#19) or JD Thompson (#20).

For all their holes they are tied with the Dodgers for second at 5.22 R/G, their 3.64 RA/G is third just fractions behind the Yankees (3.63 RA/G), and their +123 run differential is second in all of MLB. Even stripping out sequencing (which is probably a bad idea since the Brewers have the best pitching and hitting with RISP in MLB going back to 2023) and their +96 BaseRuns differential is third in MLB. The Dodgers undoubtedly have the fewest holes, then its the Brewers, Yankees, and Braves in some order, then it's the other 26 teams. Fifth best run differential in MLB is currently the Cubs at +36 missing an entire rotation, fifth best BaseRuns differential is the Braves at +59. BaseRuns actually likes the Pirates (+61) slightly more than the Braves so far this year, but their sequencing neutral model is definitely overselling a PIT team that has a 3.87 FIP (6th) but a 4.12 ERA (14th) and 4.76 RA/G (21st) largely on account of a defense (-15 FRV | 26th) that limits their ability to strand runners (68.6 LOB% | 28th).

Brewers are 20 W - 9 L when Misio or Harrison pitch, which leaves a 29 W - 20 L record (.592 W%) when our three through nine starters & two openers have started games. The Rays are currently fifth in MLB with a .571 W%.

Believe the latest update in the injury thread was that he was dealing with a shoulder impingement, currently on a throwing program, and hoping to get back behind the plate once everything is fully rehabbed. But yeah, larger point is that Dinges has an injury history that makes it unlikely he’ll be a 100 game per year MLB catcher. Even if he “only” ends up as a 50/60 game catcher that can DH against LHP that’s still a solid prospect & would be a good outcome nonetheless.

Getting pretty close to the halfway point here and there are a few different ways one could slice up the season based on how things have played out thus far. Unsustainably fun 8 W - 2 L start, followed by the immediate regression of the 5 W - 11 L stretch dropping them back to .500 after 26 games, now in the midst of an MLB best 35 W - 16 L run since then. One I thought was interesting was after 33 games thru May 3rd with neither Chourio nor Vaughn plus limited Yelich they averaged 5.21 R/G (4th) despite a below average 95 wRC+ (21st). Over the 44 games since May 4th with Chourio and Vaughn back in the fold the Brewers have averaged 5.20 R/G (3rd) in a much more earned fashion with a 111 wRC+ (4th) over that stretch. Also thought it was interesting how streaky the Brewers have been (in a good way). So far they have had streaks of W3 (x7), W4 (x4), W5, L6, L4, and L3 for a record of 42 W - 13 L (.764 W%) when streaking versus 6 W - 16 L in their other games. Those 55 games streaking represents 71.4% of the schedule so far. I think we'd all agree last year's Brewers team was streakier than average, mostly in a good way also. By my count they were at L4 (x2), L3 (x6), W3 (x8), W4 (x3), W8, W11, and W14 for 95 of their 162 games streaking (58.6%) with a record of 69 W - 26 L (.726 W%) when streaking versus 28 W - 36 L in their other games.