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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Buxton has a full NTC and has publicly stated his desire to retire as a Twin. If he moves off that position and is put on the market there would be substantial interest. His lengthy injury history is already priced into the contract at only $15M annually for a guy that averaged 382 PA | 134 wRC+ | 3.3 WAR per season since 2021 and is already at 185 PA of 144 wRC+ for 1.8 WAR this year.
  2. sveumrules
    During this current 14 W - 5 L stretch the Brewers are on they've had Perkins (18 PA of -53 wRC+), Sanchez (39 PA of 54 wRC+), Hamilton (47 PA of 55 wRC+), Mitchell (63 PA of 63 wRC+), and Rengifo (65 PA of 71 wRC+) acting as varying degrees of boat anchors. Sal (74 PA of 86 wRC+) and Joey (45 PA of 90 wRC+) have been below average too but at least closer to respectability. The rest of the offense has been good enough to render all that essentially moot though with a 109 wRC+ (4th) and scoring 5.26 R/G (2nd) over the past 19 games. Of course the pitchers running the gauntlet with a 2.34 ERA | 2.77 xERA | 2.69 FIP | 3.02 SIERA | 30.2 K% | 0.59 HR9 | 1.06 WHIP | 81.4 LOB% (all of which are best in MLB over the last 19 games) has helped too. Put it all together and that's a +53 run differential over these last 19 games.
  3. sveumrules
    Something else to consider is even if the Brewers have "lost" this trade so far what has it really cost them? Maybe one win at most? Zerpa was credited with two losses and -0.38 WPA before getting hurt. Mears has a shinier ERA (with some ugly peripherals under the hood) but has also been credited with two losses and -0.11 WPA. Isaac Collins has a 92 wRC+ and -0.2 WAR.
  4. sveumrules
    2024 their 52 W - 41 L record against teams .500 or better was 2nd best in MLB, 2025 their 46 W - 38 L record was 3rd, so far this year their 15 W - 6 L record is thee best in MLB. Another good one is how exaggerated the Brewers struggles against LHP get blown up in the IGTs. Since 2024 they have a perfectly cromulent 101 wRC+ (13th) against LHP, they were an MLB best 29 W - 18 L vs LHP last year, and are 9 W - 5 L so far this year despite missing two of their best RH hitters (plus Yelich who had a fine 109 wRC+ vs LHP from 2024-25) for most of the season.
  5. sveumrules
    Alexander Frias continues to rake (156 wRC+ over 42 PA before tonight) with a single, double, two walks, and three stolen bags though the AZ Crew trails 11 to 8 in the eighth. Some other box highlights so far include Brailyn Antunez with his first double stateside (and a walk), Kenny Fenelon with a double and single, and Malachai Halterman with a pair of singles.
  6. sveumrules
    Coming into the game Imanaga had a 2.32 ERA that was a half a run better than his 2.84 FIP, and a 3.25 xFIP that thought he'd been getting a little lucky at HR suppression in the early going too. After the game he has a 3.38 ERA | 3.39 FIP | 3.49 xFIP, instant regression.
  7. sveumrules
    PECOTA quite handily (94.0 wins to 86.9 wins) and FanGraphs by a narrower margin (88.4 wins to 86.2 wins) are still favoring the Cubs at this point in the season. However, we know that PECOTA and the default FanGraphs projections have less than stellar histories when it comes to forecasting Brewers win totals. If we flip FanGraphs over to their Season to Date mode it swings things in the Brewers favor at 97.4 wins versus 93.2 wins for Chicago. The midpoint of the two FanGraphs projections is 92 wins. Over the eight full seasons from 2017 to 2025 the Brewers won 734 games, or 91.75 per season.
  8. sveumrules
    Bauers is a great example of how real the struggle of hitting MLB pitching truly is. Glad that perseverance is finally paying off with the Brewers. 2018-24 Bauers (1,744 PA | 84 wRC+) 134 BB+ | 129 K+ | 84 AVG+ | 90 ISO+ 108 LD+ | 87 GB+ | 111 FB+ | 93 BABIP+ 109 Pull+ | 92 Cent+ | 96 Oppo+ [getting that many opportunities with such poor results as a corner only guy is pretty remarkable] 2025 Bauers (218 PA | 114 wRC+) 172 BB+ | 124 K+ | 95 AVG+ | 106 ISO+ 113 LD+ | 82 GB+ | 113 FB+ | 104 BABIP+ 96 Pull+ | 107 Cent+ | 96 Oppo+ [big upticks across the board with a slightly diminished K rate and it looking like more of an up the middle approach versus his previous pull-centric approach being a driver of the change] 2026 Bauers (151 PA | 135 wRC+) 117 BB+ | 100 K+ | 116 AVG+ | 139 ISO+ 72 LD+ | 111 GB+ | 101 FB+ | 115 BABIP+ 107 Pull+ | 94 Cent+ | 99 Oppo+ [trading walks, strikeouts and balls in the air for a lot more ground balls with a corresponding rise in his BABIP/batting average. Back to a more pull heavy approach too which might help explain the uptick in ISO despite the downturn in line drives and fly balls] Put it all together and after posting a .306 xwOBA | 88.4 EV | 8.5 Barrel% | 37.6 HardHit% over those 1,744 PA from 2018 thru 2024 he has upped his game to the tune of a .355 xwOBA | 92.3 EV | 31.2 Barrel% | 49.8 HardHit% over his last 369 PA.
  9. sveumrules
    Because the BRef playoff odds estimate team quality based on “their performance over the last 100 team games (even if it spans multiple seasons)” so they are still slightly more influenced by the end of last season than the beginning of this season.
  10. sveumrules
    I would guess the Brewers wouldn't really trust him anywhere but LF, maybe 2B in a pinch. So far in AAA this year his breakdown has been LF (149 innings), 2B (67 innings), 1B (18 innings), and RF (14 innings). Last time he got a write up from FanGraphs as an Other Prospect of Note in the Tigers system back in 2024 they said he can kind of play all over but wasn't an especially good defender at any one spot, when he was traded at the 2023 deadline they noted his 50/55 hit tool but no true defensive home.
  11. sveumrules
    Fun stuff looking at everyone's ballots. Henderson, Drohan, Gasser, Crow, Pratt, Lara, Williams (hopefully not Quero) makes seven or eight guys with pretty decent shots at graduating before the season ends to open up some spots for new guys too (cough **CJ Hughes & Rylan Mills** cough).
  12. sveumrules
    Let's say you wanted to assemble a top flight reliever. You'd probably want somebody who strikes out a bunch of guys, throws a bunch of grounders to limit home runs in today's oftentimes all or nothing game, and then strands the base runners that do manage to reach in the meantime. As it turns out, there are 133 pitchers with at least 100 relief IP going back to the start of 2024 with Aaron Ashby coming in at a 141 K+ (15th), 142 GB+ (6th), 29 HR+ (3rd), and 118 LOB+ (2nd). Of the fourteen pitchers with a higher K rate the next highest ground ball rates are Andres Munoz (150 K+ | 121 GB+) and Griffin Jax (151 K+ | 118 GB+). Among the ground ball rate leaders the next best K rates belong to Jhoan Duran (151 GB+ | 131 K+), Brendan Little (154 GB+ | 115 K+), and Camilo Doval (133 GB+ | 122 K+). Some other guys a little further down the K/GB combo list over that same stretch would be Abner (127 K+ | 121 GB+), Louis Varland (121 K+ | 124 GB+), and Adrian Morejon (116 K+ | 124 GB+). Put it all together and Ashby's 57 FIP- is fourth on leaderboard behind Aroldis Chapman, Mason Miller, and Cade Smith while his 47 ERA- is second on the leaderboard behind only Emmanuel Clase.
  13. sveumrules
    Yeah, there are 1,179 pitchers with at least 110 IP in the minors since 2024. In addition to being first in ERA (1.00), Craig is also second with a 37.1 K%, second with a 27.2 K-BB%, second with a 0.15 HR9, second with a 1.64 FIP, first with a .151 average against, fourth with a 0.94 WHIP. Not quite as dominant, but his 53.4 GB% lands him at 49th so when guys do make contact they are generally putting it on the ground.
  14. sveumrules
    "Catcher who has a max EV of 110 via PBR" Probably a little young to be slamming Pabst Blue Ribbons, but if it works who am I to judge?
  15. sveumrules
    Murakami so far this year is at 18.4 BB% + 33.7 K% + 7.9 HR% for an even 60%. Rob Deer comes in at a career 49.1 3TO% (49.8% if we include his 32 HBP) so 50% is probably a good line of demarcation and we can grandfather Rob in as the Charter Member. Not a perfect analog since ISO includes all extra base hits and not just Home Runs, but looking at the plus stats can be a good guide too. Like Sanchez this year has a 202 BB+ (5th of 253 batters min. 100 PA) and 161 ISO+ (24th) but only a 97 K+ (124th), so I'd say he's more 2.5TO with the extreme BB and ISO rates but the slightly better than average K rate. For his career he is at 47.8% so definitely in the neighborhood.
  16. sveumrules
    Should get more interesting once they all start playing each other a little bit more. So far NLC teams have only played 44 Divisional games, but have played 88 InterLeague games with a combined 56 W - 32 L record.
  17. sveumrules
    AZ Crew losing an 11 to 7 slugfest bottom of five. Kenny Fenelon homered, Roderick Flores tripled. Juan Martinez & Malachai Halterman doubled, and Alexander Frias has singled twice up til now. With four more strikeouts between them so far Antunez, Acosta, and Fenelon now have a combined 45 K in 126 PA (35.7 K%).
  18. sveumrules
    Sounds currently tied at three each heading to top of eleven themselves. Tate Kuehner gave up two runs over his 1.2 IP before Easton McGee (1.1 IP | 1 H), Drew Rom (2 IP | 1 H | 2 BB | 2 K), Blake Holub (2 IP | 2 H | 3 K) followed with zeroes. Yoho followed with two scoreless innings of his own (2 BB | 2 K) before allowing a pair of singles and the Corporeal Runner to score in the 10th, then Junior Fernandez relieving him with a 5-4-3 double play to end the inning. & now we have THE ETHAN MURRAY GAME. Pitched a scoreless eleventh inning then walked it off in the bottom half with an RBI single (had also singled and walked earlier in the game). Pratt also doubled and homered (OPS now .702) while Lara had two singles and two walks.
  19. sveumrules
    Years from now it will be remembered as the Mark Coley Game with two singles and an eleventh inning GRAND SLAM for the nine hole hitter who entered the game with a .398 OPS. Dylan O'Rae singled twice (& stole a base), Made doubled and walked (& stole a base), Burke singled twice, Keith doubled and walked (& had two outfield assists), Boeve singled twice, Darrien Miller singled and sac flied, Matthew Wood walked and got plunked. Mark Manfredi had the only truly clean appearance with two scoreless (1 H | 1 BB | 4 K | 1 Corporeal Runner Stranded in 10th Inning) as the Shuckers prevailed 9 to 7 in eleven.
  20. sveumrules
    Two nice pitching lines in Wilson with Enderson Mercado going six strong (1 ER | 4 H | 1 BB | 3 K) but Tanner Perry with the eye popping 6 K | 2 BB over three scoreless, hitless frames. In addition to the Jose Anderson bomb noted above, Yannic Walther hit a three run jack of his own, while Frederi Montero (two singles), Juan Ortuno (single, double), Brady Ebel (single, walk), and Jadyn Fielder (two walks) each reached twice in the 5 to 1 victory.
  21. sveumrules
    Adamczewski singled. Dinges singled & walked. Ragsdale singled twice. TRats lose 9-0.
  22. sveumrules
    Make that a +369 run differential now. Feel like I remember hearing some dude named Tesla saying something about those numbers holding the key to the universe or some such nonsense. Prolly didn't know ball anyway.
  23. sveumrules
    Here are some of the Brewers rankings so far this year among the 30 MLB clubs for pitchers age 25 and under before Coleman "GRAVY" Crow went for 5 IP | 1 ER | 3 H | 0 BB | 3 K tonight... 148 IP (2nd) | 141 K+ (2nd) 80 ERA- (10th) | 81 FIP- (6th) 3.7 rWAR (1st) | 3.4 fWAR (1st)
  24. sveumrules
    It’s mostly based on the grip which features the index finger raised like a knuckle ball but with tip dug into the seam. Believe it allows for a higher velocity, sharper break & has less visible “pop” out of the hand versus the traditional curveball.
  25. sveumrules
    485 PA with RISP are 4th in MLB, their 139 wRC+ with RISP is 2nd in MLB, leading to 178 RBI with RISP which are the most in MLB.
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