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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Buehrle (117 ERA+) blows out Morris (105 ERA+) once adjusted for era. That ERA+ is on the low end for HOF but still in line with guys like Gaylord (117), Glavine (118) or Blyleven (118) who got in more on quantity than quality.
  2. sveumrules
    Suter is out of options and not good enough to be used in high leverage spots. If they weren’t willing to pick up their dependable 7th inning guy two years running at $3M (Box’s 2023 option), they were never paying that same $3M for a long reliever.
  3. sveumrules
    Good ballot. I pretty much disregard the PED stuff since Selig presided over the whole thing, managers like TLR/Torre played dumb, and who knows how many users are already in, so I’d have Manny/ARod in place of Abreu/Kent. Think my new favorite dark horse candidate has to be Buehrle though. From 2001-15 (Buehrle’s entire career as a starting pitcher) he is second in rWAR behind only Roy Halladay. During that decade and a half his 490 GS & 3232 IP were first by a significant margin over Sabathia in second at 452 GS & 2988 IP. Throw in the perfect game, a World Series ring, the gold gloves and he’s got the “Fame” element too.
  4. sveumrules
    1089 IP | 71 ERA- | 73 FIP- | 28.6 rWAR | 25.9 fWAR | +32.78 WPA for Hoffman. 903 IP | 54 ERA- | 63 FIP- | 30.1 rWAR | 24.0 fWAR | +28.40 WPA for Wagner. Obviously Hoffman has the saves and about three extra full seasons of work, but Wagner was far more dominant from both a run prevention and peripheral standpoint so their WAR/WPA end up in the same range despite Hoffman’s advantage in volume.
  5. sveumrules
    $10,609? Damn, that’s like $3,536.33 per downed Dolphin. I really hope some of that fine goes towards the counseling their children will surely require after watching their fathers not only get absolutely crushed by Lazard, but also mercilessly taunted by him afterward. But in all seriousness, how does one get the job where they go through all the games and then decide how much to fine each infraction? If they truly want to crack down on taunting, they need to jack up these fines. I’d be handing out a lot of $69,420 hits if Goodell passed me the reigns.
  6. sveumrules
    Apparently Marlins plan is to play Segura at 3B.
  7. sveumrules
    One year splits are too small of a sample to draw such definitive conclusions from. 2022 Mancini vs RHP: 111 wRC+ Mancini vs LHP: 85 wRC+ 2021 Mancini vs RHP: 85 wRC+ Mancini vs LHP: 140 wRC+ Career Mancini vs RHP: 111 wRC+ Mancini vs LHP: 112 wRC+
  8. sveumrules
    Even with sporadic playing time spread out over multiple seasons, two things can be accurately forecasted. His K% and defensive ineptitude. Barring a major adjustment or approach change he is going to strikeout at an alarming rate and never be relied upon to provide any defensive value. This is the primary reason he only has 1.5 seasons of PAs over four years. Well, that and he stunk from 2020-21. His results moving forward will depend entirely on batted ball luck just as they have in the past.... 2019: 348 PA | .402 BABIP | 24.1 HR/FB% | 139 wRC+ 2020-21: 443 PA | .271 BABIP | 18.9 HR/FB% | 71 wRC+ 2022: 266 PA | .355 BABIP | 29.8 HR/FB% | 115 wRC+
  9. sveumrules
    Winker had a 109 wRC+ last year. That is horrendous? I guess if you want to compare it to the 145 wRC+ he posted from 2020-21, sure.
  10. sveumrules
    Better raw stats, sure, but once one accounts for 2016-19 (Omar’s 1st four years) being a much stronger offensive era than 2019-22 (Murphy’s 1st four years) and US Cellular (where Omar played three of his 1st four years) being a much better hitters park than the Coliseum (where Murphy played all four) it shakes out to 2016-19 Omar at 113 wRC+ and 2019-22 Murphy at 116 wRC+. While the end result was within mere % points, the way they went about their offense was pretty different. Narvaez (135 BB%+ | 81 K%+) had the edge over Murphy (120 BB%+ | 102 K%+) on plate discipline and getting singles, 109 AVG+ | 107 BABIP+ for Omar vs 97 AVG+ | 95 BABIP+ for Murphy. But Sean made up for it and then some with XBHs posting a 120 ISO+ vs only a 76 ISO+ for Omar, a massive gulf. I’m not sure what constitutes super great, but Murphy’s 116 wRC+ ranks 8th among 59 catchers with at least 500 PA since 2019 with league average backstops posting an 89 wRC+ over the last four years.
  11. sveumrules
    Sure, 2020 was the pandemic, but Murphy still ranked 5th in innings caught. 104 games started and 923 innings both ranked 8th in 2021, that’s a pretty full time season for a catcher nowadays, no? Add it all up and the only catchers that have caught more innings than Murphy (2266) over the last three years are JTR (2395), Maldonado (2351) and Vazquez (2277). Hard to get much more full time than that behind the dish.
  12. sveumrules
    One year samples are too small to draw meaningful conclusions from. Keston has been in MLB since 2019, here is how both players have performed vs RHP during that time… Hiura: 743 PA | 34.5 K% | 122 wRC+ Winker: 1250 PA | 17.0 K% | 133 wRC+ Seems pretty close (besides the PA and K%), but Most of Hiura’s damage vs RHP was done in 2019 with the juiced ball (265 PA | 30.2 K% | 159 wRC+ | .415 BABIP). Since then, from 2020-22 Keston has posted a 102 wRC+ and 36.8 K% with a .294 BABIP in 478 PA vs RHP. Over that same 2020-22 time frame Winker is at 137 wRC+ and 17.2 K% in 916 PA vs RHP.
  13. sveumrules
    I don’t believe it’s one hundred percent of one and zero percent of the other, both are likely considered & weighed in some unknown measure. Over the last five seasons the Brewers have won the 6th most games in MLB, which is pretty good for not worrying about baseball. Will some team(s) put the public opinion aside and offer Bauer a spot in 2023 for baseball reasons? Time will tell. I don’t think it will be the Brewers though.
  14. sveumrules
    Keston’s 2022 peaked on August 22nd when he had a 144 wRC+ with a 42.8 K%, .381 BABIP and 41.9 HR/FB% through 173 PAs. Those 173 PAs ranked 12th on the team and worked out to an average of 1.43 PA/G. "WHY ARENT THEY PLAYING HOME MORE?!?!?!" - the internet in general. From August 23rd through the end of the season Hiura posted a 63 wRC+ with a 39.8 K%, .319 BABIP and 6.3 HR/FB% over 93 PAs. Those 93 PAs ranked 8th on the team and worked out to an average of 2.27 PA/G. They played him more down the stretch, and he stunk. Turned out keeping up that .381 BABIP and 41.9 HR/FB% was unsustainable...just like the front office likely thought it was, which is probably why they didn't play him more often to begin with. It's not like he had earned regular playing time entering 2022 after posting a 72 wRC+ (251st out of 263 batters with at least 400 PA from 2020-21) to go along with a 36.6 K% (261st), 57.0 Contact% (263rd) and -0.3 WAR (254th).
  15. sveumrules
    If Keston could field a position adequately and his OPS wasn't propped up by unsustainable BABIP and HR/FB% to go along with a deplorable K rate and inability to hit LHP...he'd probably get more consistent playing time. Since he can't field a position adequately and his OPS was propped up by unsustainable BABIP and HR/FB% to go along with a deplorable K rate and inability to hit LHP...his playing time was inconsistent. Seems pretty straight forward to me.
  16. sveumrules
    Don’t see Mark A and his “Family Organization” wanting to take on the negative PR hit regardless of what the baseball implications could be.
  17. sveumrules
    In an intuitive sense, I wonder if Hiura struggles vs LHP because they have a better approach angle to the hole in his swing up & in? Since 2019 there are 226 batters with at least 300 PAs vs LHP, Keston’s 65 wRC+ ranks 221st. Career vs LHP Hiura is at 39.5 K% and 29.9 HardHit% compared to 34.5 K% and 41.4 HardHit% vs RHP. If Keston is indeed gone by OD that would be one more member of the Addition By Subtraction Club for the Brewers 2022 WOAHs vs LHP… Hiura (109 PAs | 75 wRC+), Omar (39 PAs | 75 wRC+), Wong (96 PAs | 37 wRC+) and Lorenzo (49 PAs | -17 wRC+) combined for about -17.5 wRAA vs LHP. Caratini (123 PAs | 66 wRC+ | -4.7 wRAA) could be less exposed vs LHP with the addition of Contreras as well.
  18. sveumrules
    If Hiura could field like Adames this might mean something. As it stands, Willy’s combination of bat and glove yielded 4.7 WAR last year. Hiura’s combination of bat and glove yielded 0.8 WAR. That’s an apples to pumpkin comparison.
  19. sveumrules
    Tua back in concussion protocols. Looks like it maybe happened with like 2:37 left in Q2 when his head bounced off the ground a little…
  20. sveumrules
    Using the Phils, Mets & Padres as evidence of anything is some pretty strong recency bias. Phils started spending again in 2019, $161M (10th), went 81-81. 2020 payroll ranked 12th, went 28-32. 2021 payroll jumped to $192M (4th), went 82-80. Finally broke through in 2022 spending $229M (4th) to win 87 games and that extra $100M still wouldn’t have been enough to even get them in the playoffs to make the WS if half our rotation and Best Closer In Baseball hadn’t imploded. Obviously Mets have Cohen now so they are in a whole other stratosphere, but their big spending before that yielded less than desired results following their 2015/16 postseason trips. 2017: $149M (15th), 70-92. 2018: $152M (12th), 77-85. 2019: $146M (12th), 86-76. 2020: $83M (3rd), 26-34. 2021: $199M (3rd), 77-85. Padres big spending really kicked in for 2020 ($76M, 3rd) and it worked in the shortened season. 2021 full season follow up ($184M, 7th) didn’t go as well at 79-83. They spent over $80M more than the Brewers to win those three extra games in 2022. I wish the Brewers could (or would) spend more on payroll but ultimately it wouldn’t guarantee anything. OD Payroll 2018: $91M Brewers win 96 games. OD Payroll 2019: $123M Brewers win 89 games. OD Payroll 2021: $99M Brewers win 95 games. OD Payroll 2022: $132M Brewers win 86 games.
  21. sveumrules
    Hiura posted a 116 wRC+ at AA to end 2018 and was a horrendous fielder. Starting him at AAA in 2019 was justifiable. He roped at San Antonio (with the juiced MLB used in AAA that year), but also saw his K% jump up to 26.3% from 18.2% at Biloxi, a pretty big red flag. Given how his career has gone since then & how unsustainable his 2019 performance has shown to be, I’d say there’s a better case that he was rushed than there is the he was held down too long.
  22. sveumrules
    Not sure why Cohen required a physical in the first place, can’t he just like buy Correa a new cybernetic exoskeleton or whatever?
  23. sveumrules
    I think they generally have since Stearns and company got here. Feels like they’ve called guys up once they thought they were ready & don’t recall them really trying to manipulate service time with guys too much.
  24. sveumrules
    This makes the Gagne deal look even worse.
  25. sveumrules
    They signed Kiermaier for $9M so I'm guessing their primary alignment when everyone is healthy will be Springer (LF) Kiermaier (CF) Varsho (RF), but given Kiermaier's health Varsho will still get plenty of time in CF.
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