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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Right, because all of them (except Giancarlo) can field a position and none of them struck out thee very most out of the 317 players with at least 250 PA in 2022. Keston’s lack of playing time is tied directly to those two factors. The reason say Joey Gallo, gets more playing time than Keston despite them both being high strikeout power hitters is because Gallo walks more (16.0 BB% from 2019-22 vs 7.4% for Hiura), slugs more (.249 ISO vs .216 ISO) and fields better (+37 DRS vs -16 DRS).
  2. sveumrules
    Yet, they all finished with higher WAR than Keston (0.8). OPS is only one portion of a players value. If a player can’t field a position, and strikes out 41.7% of the time (worst in 2022 min 250 PA), its difficult to get consistent playing time.
  3. sveumrules
    "He’s a promising prospect defensively behind the plate. But so was Mario Feliciano, who ultimately ended up on waivers and claimed by Detroit." Quero is an advanced defender behind the plate, Feliciano was always a bat first prospect who needed to figure out the actual catching part. Outside of being teenage Brewers catching prospects the two have very different profiles.
  4. sveumrules
    Spring bullpen battle should be fun to watch unfold. Even if one counts all of Williams, Bush, Milner and Strzelecki as locks that still leaves three spots up for grabs. Dream world I guess I’d go Abner emerges as a viable high leverage option, Small finds his command in more of a Suter long relief role and then gimme Gus Varland for the Rule V story as the the three to break camp.
  5. sveumrules
    Benintendi 2020-22 1111 PAs | 110 wRC+ | 4.1 WAR Yelich 2020-22 1393 PAs | 108 wRC+ | 4.5 WAR Benintendi just signed for 5/75 vs 6/162.5 remaining for Yelich, so that’s a difference of $87.5M. Throw in however much negative value Yelich’s full NTC carries as another obstacle to any deal and the -112.5 number on BTV feels like it’s in the right range to me. Figuring out Tatis is a fair bit trickier. Has 12/324 left on his deal with a full NTC and had injury issues before wrecking his motorcycle multiple times & getting busted for PEDs. But there is no doubt about the quality of his play when healthy with a 153 wRC+ ranking 5th since 2019 while his 13.6 WAR still ranks 26th despite missing 270 games during his career.
  6. sveumrules
    In case anyone was curious, the Rangers selected Davis Wendzel (208/291/404 in 382 PAs at AAA so far) with the 2019 Comp Pick we originally traded for Claudio. Orioles picked Gunnar Henderson with the subsequent pick.
  7. sveumrules
    Ruiz has proven twice now to have divisive value. First we got robbed for only getting him and Gasser as the prospects back for Hader. Then we committed robbery to turn him into Contreras plus. BTV value seems to be in line with the consensus, but clearly the A’s, Brewers (& likely other organizations as well) value him more highly than the consensus. If he gets a full season PAs with the A’s we’ll have a lot better idea whose valuation was more accurate.
  8. sveumrules
    In terms of the immediate, he has a full NTC and only makes $7M in 2023, so would obviously have to approve any deal and would fit in the budget. Salaries climb to 11, 20, 20, 25, 25 through 2028 (Yelich’s last guaranteed year) before hitting $36M annually from 2029-36. If we can get him without giving up Chourio, there wouldn’t be a much higher upside play that could be made. Obviously the injury and PED stuff are huge mitigating factors, but he wouldn’t be theoretically available otherwise.
  9. sveumrules
    Doink that goes through should be worth four points.
  10. sveumrules
    Thanks Brock for spearheading the charge that transitioned BF.net/com from a remnant of the “old internet” into something more contemporary and easily accessible to Brewer Fans. Here’s to continued growth in 2023, I’d imagine a World Series win would be alright for site traffic.
  11. sveumrules
    I can kinda understand Renfroe/Wong since they were just traded, but Hader was dealt in August. Please don’t say Burnes is April.
  12. sveumrules
    No new list to report, but a Tyler Black interview leads off David Laurila’s first Sunday Notes of 2023 over at FanGraphs.., LINK There’s also a Dennis Sarfate link, a lil Corbin Burnes nugget and a rogue Rafael Roque mention in there.
  13. sveumrules
    I still dream of the Brewers acquiring both Riley Pint and Seth Beer.
  14. sveumrules
    Wouldn’t extend Urias either. He’s a perfectly cromulent 2B/3B option through Arby, but no need to lock him up beyond that barring some kind of breakout.
  15. sveumrules
    Don’t think Blaze Jordan would have been the target, intriguing bat for sure who put up nice numbers at A/A+ as a 19 year old, but looks like defensive profile is maybe 3B/likely 1B. Looking at the Red Sox prospects at FanGraphs guessing they would have been after some combination of Brandon Walter, Bryan Mata, Thad Ward, Franklin German, Eduardo Bazardo and Jacob Wallace as upper level depth arms.
  16. sveumrules
    I’d love to do both, but what moves? Beating the 4/79 Schwarber got from Philly instead of giving 1/8.5 to McCutchen for DH would have done the trick last year, but that’s an extra $11M on what was already a franchise record payroll for 2022 plus three more years at $20M+. A more realistic move of similar impact might have been beating the 2/26.5 the Mets gave Canha, but I can’t imagine most of the fan base getting too excited about giving thirty some million to a guy they never heard of. Looking at guys who have signed this year, how much do we have to give Abreu to beat 3/58.5 from the defending World Series Champs? Even if they opened the floodgates and offered Xander 9/270, does he take that over 11/280 from sunny San Diego? Guys who could have been potentially useful in our price range like Longo (limited destinations) or Turner (higher profile team) or Drury/Myers (clearer path to playing time) had legit reasons not to pick the Brewers even if they did make an effort to bring them into the fold.
  17. sveumrules
    44 combined points in Q3 then TCU busts out a 76 yard TD two minutes into Q4, just nuts. Over & TCU +7.5 bettors rejoicing, Michigan to cover bettors sweating.
  18. sveumrules
    Not a ton of examples on Helton’s level, but from the few there are I think OPS+ does a pretty good job with Coors… Holiday COL 06-08: 2003 PA | 142 OPS+ Holiday STL 09-13: 3151 PA | 144 OPS+ Walker MON 92-94: 1617 PA | 137 OPS+ Walker COL 95-04: 4795 PA | 147 OPS+ Walker STL 04-05: 545 PA | 134 OPS+ Arenado COL 15-20: 3577 PA | 127 OPS+ Arenado STL 21-22: 1273 PA | 135 OPS+ Its harder to isolate out Walkers home/road OPS splits for Colorado, but Arenado (1.022 home / .829 road from 15-20) and Holiday (1.098 home / .855 road from 06-08) both had similar splits as Helton (1.048 home / .855 road).
  19. sveumrules
    Here are the Brewers full season OD Payrolls (with MLB rank) per Cots over the last 15 years, during which time the Brewers have won the 8th most games in MLB… 2022: $132M (19th) 2021: $99M (19th) 2019: $123M (17th) 2018: $99M (26th) 2017: $63M (30th) 2016: $64M (30th) 2015: $104M (20th) 2014: $104M (16th) 2013: $89M (19th) 2012: $98M (13th) 2011: $84M (17th) 2010: $90M (17th) 2009: $80M (17th) 2008: $81M (15th) Two of their three division champions (2011 and 2021) happened after a step back in spending and the third (2018) came when they ranked 26th in OD payroll. The two highest OD payrolls in franchise history (2019 & 2022) and the highest ranked (2012) resulted in fewer wins than the previous seasons after those division winners. OD payroll is a big factor in how any given team’s season ultimately plays out, but the Brewers have a decade and a half long history of showing it isn’t the only factor. If a lower OD payroll means more of a commitment to playing the position player prospects, I’d be more excited about 2023 personally. I’d also be cool with offering fifty million to Correa for 2023 then he can try the whole free agency thing again next winter.
  20. sveumrules
    Nice bounce back win last night after the worst loss of the year at the Bulls. The 9-0 start was fun, but the team had continuity and a soft easy schedule. 14-12 since with a tougher schedule, dealing with injuries and trying to work in Khris and Jingles, who gave his first glimpse of being “back” last night. Middleton not looking himself so far and dealing with various injuries isn’t encouraging, but there’s still over half the season to get things in order there. Will be curious too see if Horst can pull a rabbit out of his hat at the deadline.
  21. sveumrules
    Being a petulant jerk to the media his whole career was the cherry on top.
  22. sveumrules
    Kent’s 55.4 career WAR ranks 19th all time among 2B. Rolen’s 71.0 career WAR ranks 10th all time among 3B. If Kent is perhaps one of the best 2B of all time, Rolen is certainly among the best 3B of all time.
  23. sveumrules
    Less than I expected for Longo, but he lives in AZ so wouldn’t be surprised if he left a couple two tree million on the table to be closer to home.
  24. sveumrules
    I'd have no problem with Hudson being in either. Him an Buehrle are the only pitchers in MLB with 3,000+ IP from 1999-2015 so they get their own personalized FanGraphs leaderboard to click around on... LINK Even with a two season head start, Hudson (479 GS | 3,123 IP) still ended up pitching a lil less than Buehrle (493 GS | 3,283 IP), but Tim was better on a per inning basis with an 83 ERA- | 90 FIP- versus an 87 ERA- | 93 FIP- for Mark. Add it all up and rWAR favors Hudson (64.2 vs 59.9) while fWAR favors Buehrle (52.3 vs 49.0). The common denominator holding them back would seem to be they were lifelong peripherals beaters who didn't strike guys out (92 K%+ for Hudson, 78 K%+ for Buehrle) with Hudson getting most of his value from the unsexy combo of ground balls (131 GB%+) and homer avoidance (69 HR9+) while Buehrle never walked anybody (65 BB%+) and fielded his position like a wizard (+87 career DRS, Greinke is second all time at +55). But yeah, I don't have high expectations. When a guy like Kevin Brown (3,256 IP | 78 ERA- | 78 FIP- | 72.9 rWAR | 76.5 fWAR) who suppressed home runs (58 HR9+) better than anyone in the post-integration era falls off the ballot on his first go round, the electorate clearly isn't paying close enough attention.
  25. sveumrules
    Was really surprised by Matt Moore’s season (& that he was even still pitching at all really). Looks like there might have been some luck involved though, especially his HR/FB rate with his splits at 50 ERA- | 74 FIP- | 98 xFIP-. That the drunken sailor Rangers didn’t resign him straight away gives me some pause too.
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