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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Something along the same lines @Brock Beauchamp, my Unread Content link hasn't been working the last couple days.
  2. sveumrules
    The Case Against Trea Turner in Brewer Gold. Projected contract between 8/268 (MLBTR) and 9/288 (FanGraphs).
  3. sveumrules
    The Case Against Trea Turner in Brewer Gold. Projected contract between 8/268 (MLBTR) and 9/288 (FanGraphs).
  4. sveumrules
    Welcome to the board. With his success at Appleton and in the AFL to close out the season, I’d guess Quero starts in Biloxi next year which would probably give him an MLB ETA around 2025.
  5. sveumrules
    "Hey David, MA here. Me and the other MA were thinking about what to get to eat today, can't decide between Texas BBQ or NY style Pizza. Please advise."
  6. sveumrules
    Forget Shohei Ohtani, David Stearns shaping up to be the top FA next offseason.
  7. sveumrules
    Right now all arrows seem to be pointing towards a return to the barren post-Lombardi / pre-Wolf decades. Does anywhere track how many spots open up every year on the season ticket list? If Rodgers makes it to the end of the year healthy my best guess is he/MLF/Gute get one more year to see if they can cash in on the massive chip AR12 will surely have on his shoulder. If they do decide to deal Aaron and start the inevitable teardown instead, I just hope whoever is in charge by then knows what they’re doing.
  8. sveumrules
    2021 Brewers came in 12th in R/G with a position player wRC+ of 98. 2022 Brewers came in 10th in R/G with a wRC+ of 103. The coaching change was certainly no revelation, but the offense did perform slightly better in 2022.
  9. sveumrules
    Urias has definitely been overmatched as a SS with -6 DRS | -7.1 UZR | -15 OAA in 1,116 innings. I’d say he’s peen cromulent at 3B with +10 DRS | -0.1 UZR | -3 OAA in 1,191 innings.
  10. sveumrules
    Attendance hasn’t recovered to pre-Covid levels across all of MLB (not just Milwaukee) and Burnes will likely end up being too expensive to retain, but everything else is either conjecture or personal opinion, not really objective truth or even all that troubling necessarily depending on one’s POV. If you think AmFam maintenance is inevitably going to be too costly for MLB to remain financially viable in Milwaukee, enjoy the death knell I guess? Brutal as it may be.
  11. sveumrules
    Kinda surprised on Boxberger since it was only $3M vs a 750K buyout. Miller looks like he put up a good year at AA back in 2019 but has struggled at AAA/MLB in the three years since.
  12. sveumrules
    Two Brewers headlines at the top of MLBTR currently, Brad Boxberger's option declined and Tyson Miller claimed on waivers.
  13. sveumrules
    In the four seasons (2018-21) before signing their respective FA deals Baez came in at 16.5 WAR | 113 wRC+ and Story came in at 15.8 WAR | 117 wRC+. We don't know how Willy's next two seasons will go, or if he will even hit FA at all, but over his last two seasons he is at 8.0 WAR | 114 wRC+. If he maintains that type of production over the next two seasons, he would enter FA with the same kind of four season splits as Baez and Story.
  14. sveumrules
    Single season defensive metrics are highly volatile, I don’t see how it’s flawed to include multiple seasons. I’m not trying to make anybody look anything. A comparison was made between three players so I just presented splits for the last four, three, and two seasons. People are free to draw whatever conclusions they wish.
  15. sveumrules
    Yeah, Brewers didn’t play Brosseau a single inning at 2B last year. If they didn’t see him as viable there with shifts in play, I don’t think they’d want to give him too many innings now that second base will go back to requiring a lil more defensive acumen.
  16. sveumrules
    Relievers are thee most volatile position. Teams haven’t really shown a recent tendency to pay a premium for the additional years of team control. Since debuting in 2020, among 131 relievers with at least 100 IP, Devin is at 45 ERA- (2nd) | 51 FIP- (3rd) | 5.2 rWAR (4th) | 5.0 fWAR (3rd) | +8.23 WPA (2nd). That’s about as automatic as it gets and there are still posters here who don’t trust him. I don’t see any team offering up an enticing enough package for the Brewers to deal Devin this offseason.
  17. sveumrules
    Projecting a rookie’s wRC+ is incredibly difficult, the error bars are even wider than projecting established MLB players, but thousands of players have gone from AAA to MLB for front offices and projection systems to at least get a rough baseline. I’d say 93 wRC+ for Turang’s rookie season is fair. Anything approaching a 110 wRC+ would be pretty impressive with Brice posting a 108 mark in AAA last year, I think most would take something around a league average 100 mark as a solid debut, but also wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up down in the 70’s or 80’s with memories of Arcia still lodged in our collective subconscious. I’d prefer not to trade Turang, but if Adames is extended Brice becomes a more plausible trade candidate for me. A’s were terrible at MIF and OF last year. Between Turang, Frelick, Wiemer, Mitchell and Esteury we could offer them some combination of three MLB ready guys to plug in from day one in exchange for Murphy.
  18. sveumrules
    If one wants to give Willy a pass for 2019 since it was his first full season and narrow the parameters to 2020-22 it shakes out to… Willy (10.6 WAR) 116 wRC+ | +4.6 BSR | +13.6 DEF Story (7.2 WAR) 103 wRC+ | +13.3 BSR | +11.7 DEF Baez (6.5 WAR) 95 wRC+ | +5.1. BSR | +19.5 DEF If one wanted to give everyone a pass on 2020 for extenuating circumstances and instead just look at the last two full seasons it shakes out to… Willy (8.0 WAR) 114 wRC+ | +2.6 BSR | +14.6 DEF Baez (6.0 WAR) 103 wRC+ | +5.5 BSR | +11.5 DEF Story (5.1 WAR) 99 wRC+ | +9.3 BSR | +9.2 DEF
  19. sveumrules
    Since becoming a full time starter in 2019 Adames is 11th in WAR among SS at 12.5. His components are 111 wRC+ | +6.9 BSR | +25.3 DEF Over that same time frame Story is 10th in WAR among SS at 13.6 with a 110 wRC+ | +19.2 BSR | +30.7 DEF. Willy has essentially been Trevor without the wheels over the last four seasons. Since 2019 Baez comes in 12th among SS at 12.4 WAR with 100 wRC+ | +6.3 BSR | +51.3 DEF. Essentially a wash on WAR, Javy better with the glove, Willy better with the bat.
  20. sveumrules
    Wong had a 116 wRC+ last year, league average wRC+ for DH was 101. Supply hasn’t quite caught up to demand now that there are twice as many DH spots to fill, with only three guys (JDM, Cruz & Ohtani) cracking 500 PAs at DH. Lots of ugly DH performances to go around with Cruz (505 PAs | 85 wRC+), Cabrera (430 PAs | 79 wRC+), Franmil (422 PAs | 78 wRC+), Voit (405 PAs | 84 wRC+), Cutch (360 PAs | 84 wRC+), Blackmon (356 PAs | 93 wRC+), Ozuna (297 PAs | 75 wRC+), Jesus (240 PAs | 76 wRC+) and even Yelich (153 PAs | 76 wRC+) doing most of the heavy lifting to bring the positional average down.
  21. sveumrules
    What series of moves this offseason & opening day payroll for 2023 would constitute “all in” for you? For me it seems like $150M is a long shot & thus would constitute “all in” territory, though it feels like even on the off chance Mark A did green light a budget in that neighborhood many fans would still be underwhelmed, depending on what moves were made to get there of course.
  22. sveumrules
    Cots has the Phils OD payroll at $228M this year, a few million short of the last two Brewers OD payrolls combined. Brewers don’t have those kind of chips. Pushing payroll to $150M would be “all in” for them, but still nowhere near the big spenders of the NL. Extend one of Burnes or Woodruff, trade for Sean Murphy and sign Abreu would probably be the peak somewhat realistic “all in” moves for my offseason. We’ll see what actually happens.
  23. sveumrules
    Murphy was a class act for sure, but he’s kind of the anti-Baines with 41.2 WAR during his seven peak seasons, but only 5.3 WAR over his other eleven seasons. Even his peak isn’t really that impressive at 19th among CF between Cesar Cedeno and Vada Pinson. Outside of Bonds, the rest of the position players would be HoVG for me. I’d take Lou Whitaker or Kenny Lofton (or Dick Allen, but that’s a different era) over any of them.
  24. sveumrules
    I don't have an MJS subscription but do they accompany that comparison of spending relative to the rest of the league with how the Brewers revenues have kept pace with the rest of the league over that same time frame? Extending Burnes wouldn't really be a "push the chips in" move though would it? He is already under team control for the immediate future. To me that implies a big move(s) to bring in players from outside the organization via trade (a catcher hopefully) and/or free agency (Abreu?).
  25. sveumrules
    OD Payroll 2018: $91M Brewers win 96 games. OD Payroll 2019: $123M Brewers win 89 games. OD Payroll 2021: $99M Brewers win 95 games. OD Payroll 2022: $132M Brewers win 86 games. The Brewers set a franchise record for payroll in two of the last four seasons, they've been spending. The last two times they pushed payroll over $100M before that they won 82 games (2014) and 68 games (2015). I'd love for the Brewers to raise payroll, but it doesn't guarantee they will win more games. It might help them sell some tickets though.
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