sveumrules

Arm soreness. Believe it was noted in the Minor League Roster Speculation thread and one of the daily link reports.

It’s also incorrect. 26 million each for 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28 is 156 million. 6.5 million buyout for 29 brings it to 162.5 million remaining.

Anytime I see someone getting a little to cavalier with the salad tongs over to the Golden Corral, I can’t help but think “hast thou learned nothing from the follies of Matt Wise?”

Love those mechanics. Looks like pretty standard stuff, then he does that little fake leg kick thing and everything just explodes from there.

Love those mechanics. Looks like pretty standard stuff, then he does that little fake leg kick thing and everything just explodes from there.

Something else to keep in mind with Hendry is that he is only four months older than Chourio, so still incredibly young compared to his level of competition.

Day Game + Win + "Season's Over"

The Dodgers have played 19 different teams this year... Four of them (CHC, CIN, LAA & MIN) did not win a single game. (LAD: 22-0) Three of them (CLE, PHI, PIT) are winning the season series. (LAD: 5-11) Three of them (NYM, MIL, WAS) have played them even. (LAD: 7-7) LAD has a winning record against the nine (ARI, ATL, CHW, COL, DET, KCR, SDP, SFG, STL) remaining teams. (LAD: 47-18)

Obviously only 71 PAs so far, but that AAA triple slash of 212/254/424 is probably closer to his true talent level than the 281/392/636 line he posted at almost two years older than the average Southern League (or whatever its called now) batter. Could just be a courtesy move too. If they don't intend to 40 man him through the offseason gives him a chance to maybe get a head start with an organization that has more opportunity available in advance of another go round through minor league FA. Or possibly he sticks with the Brewers, resigns for 2023 and it ends up just being a procedural move to clear a 40 man spot.

Only 93 PAs at Wisco to this point, but the K% (21.5) and BB% (8.6) are both trending in the right direction compared to 28.0 K% | 7.0 BB% in 297 PAs at Carolina.

Avina has been a fun follow for sure this year, but until he reigns in that strikeout rate (34.2 K% in 149 complex level PAs and now 40.6 K% in 32 PAs at Carolina so far), gonna be tough to make much headway.

OPS+ for the other NLC teams are 113, 98, 83 and 83. ERA+ for the other NLC teams are 99, 97, 91, 91. Outside of the Cardinals offense, the pitching staff has had an easier go of things with the Reds/Pirates offenses each clocking in worse than their pitching.

Here’s a pretty telling surface level stat, from 2018-21, the Brewers bullpen won 146 games (3rd most) and lost 86 games (7th fewest). The only team with a better bullpen W% over that same stretch was NYY at 141-81. +60 bullpen wins over 3.37 seasons is something like +18 per full season. This year’s bullpen hasn’t given us that same boost at 24 wins (11th) vs 20 losses (15th).

The Brewers are 8th in RS/G this year vs 15th in RA/G, maybe the offense is pressing from having to carry an underperforming pitching staff?

Main advantage to winning the division at this point would be getting all three games at AmFam in the first round.

For sure. Of the guys mocked in our range that draft was hoping PCA would make it to our pick because after years of watching Cameron, Gomez, that one Krynzel play, Keon, Cain, heck, even JBJ, I’m somewhat of a CF defense fetishist now. On the bright side, outside of PCA and Owen Caissie (ginger Canadian Corey Hart), I wasn’t really too blown away by any of the other South Bend Cubs.

Went to the last three TRats games & just wanted to dump some random observations here… Chourio: Looked like he was really working on being more selective, tracking pitches. Hit a Rickie Weeks lazer beam bomb that was a sight to behold along with a couple that just missed down each of the LF/RF line with a roped double & a couple loud outs also included. The bad, I don’t think he’s a CF in MLB, especially with the other OF ahead of him in the system. The few competitive throws he had to make were average at best & there was a marked difference to my eye between JC and Pete Crow Armstrong on the grass. Quero: looks like the real deal behind the plate, very impressed with his receiving for such a young backstop. Also seems to have a pretty good idea what he is doing in the box. Did not look overwhelmed being dropped into the cleanup spot straightaway as a teenage catcher in A+. Garcia: impressed with what I saw of him at SS, but his approach is going to need to be overhauled. With the caveat that he is young for the level & freshly called up he still made Orlando Arcia look like Joey Votto. JGJ: made a couple costly errors on the grass, looked mostly lost at the plate. Feel like next year will be make or break for him. Metzinger: agree with @Joseph Zarr that if what he has shown with his throws is representative of his true arm strength he is not a 3B. Thought the bat came around nicely after a K heavy first couple games though. Jarvis: skinny Tyler Thornburg. From the mechanics to the FB/CB combo. Rodriguez: very impressed with his start tonight. Athletic on the mound with nice secondaries and command. Don’t think he quite has Peralta’s extension/vertical approach angle on the FB, but shades of Freddy nonetheless. Meeker: doesn’t have that plus plus stuff on the mound, but he just competes and gets outs in tough spots. Don’t think he’ll ever be a high leverage MLB guy, but do believe he will keep moving up & get to the show in the next couple years which would be a major success in & of itself for an Indy ball sign.

What do you consider a real bat? Eduardo Escobar had a 108 OPS+ when we traded for him at the deadline, Moose was at 109 OPS+, Granderson 112 OPS+. The only two hitters dealt at this deadline who would have been notable upgrades (Soto/Bell) were both traded in the same transaction. Maybe if Benintendi played CF, but he’s LF only at this point. Mancini at 114 OPS+ when he was dealt isn’t an upgrade over Rowdy or Keston. Even Cutch is up to a 105 OPS+. What real bat could Stearns & company have acquired that would have moved the needle?

Reading the game thread after a win = fun. Reading the game thread after a comeback win =

Two JGJ errors later (dropped fly ball & booted single into triple) and its tied 2-2 bottom three. Impressed by Jarvis so far though. Generates a lot of velo for a skinny dude.

Chourio bomb after Miller reached on error. 2-0 TRats bottom 1st.

They “developed” Grisham & traded him for Urias. They developed Rasmussen (but he’s a pitcher I realize that doesn’t count) and traded him for Adames. Rowdy was also acquired via negligible trade. Developed by the Brewers or not, those are three young controllable bats in the lineup. The truth is these things take time & the Brewers have four recent high draft pick hitters in AAA plus some guy named Jackson doing ok too. Seven years sounds like forever but it’s really not seven years, No 1st rounder from 2022 or 2021 has made MLB. Four 1st rounders from 2020 have made MLB, all drafted 11th or higher, Brewers picked 20th. Small is one of only 13 FRPs to make MLB in 2019. The top seven picks have all made it plus four guys from 11th to 20th. Ethan was #28. In 2018 the only quality hitter drafted after Turang in the 1st round was Nico Hoerner. There’s some other guys who have just started cracking MLB in the 2nd/3rd round; Ryan Jeffers, Alek Thomas, Cal Raleigh, Jeremy Pena. 2017 we got the best hitter available in the 1st round, no hitter drafted after him has topped Keston’s 1.3 WAR. Even from 2016 there are only four 1st round hitters with at least 2 WAR; Kyle Lewis (11th pick), Gavin Lux (20th), Will Smith (32nd), Dylan Carlson (33rd). 25th pick Eric Lauer is 5th among 2016 first rounders in career WAR, but he is a pitcher & was acquired via trade so that’s a double whammy. So out of the seven years of not developing a hitter it’s really only been one year, Ray/Erceg in 2016. 2017 we got the best guy we could, 2018 our guy is in AAA & we essentially got Willy Adames in the 6th round. Anything after that is too recent for MLB impact based on our draft positioning.

Arbitration raises for Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, etc

538 sees Division Odds as 52% STL / 48% MIL currently. FanGraphs (59% MIL / 41 % STL) and BPro (68% MIL / 32% STL) both favor the Brewers. As the standings, ahem, stand ? today, it looks like whoever loses the NLC will be battling PHI for the last Wild Card, For whatever it is or isn't worth, here are the respective overall Playoff Odds for each of those three teams from each of the three publicly available projections with about two turds of the season in the books... PECOTA (MIL 82% PHI 67% STL 54%) FanGraphs (MIL 76% PHI 66% STL 64%) 538 (PHI 76% STL 74% MIL 70%) Me? I'm kind of a simpleton. I'd say the Brewers playoff odds are about 50%, they'll either make it or they won't.

Yeah, seems like there are about 14-15 "consensus" guys in whatever order, then something like that same number of guys competing for the last few spots in the Top 20. Between that and the first two picks in the draft this year likely struggling to crack the Top 10 really speaks to how much the depth of the system has improved over the last couple two tree years,