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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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FG’s 2022 PPRs continue with 1B & the Brewers checking in at 26th… https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-first-base/ This probably feels about right after the last couple years of 1B “production” (96 wRC+ & 0.3 WAR, both 25th among MLB 1B from 2020-21) but it hasn’t always been that way. From 2016-18 Brewers 1B posted a 124 wRC+ (5th) & 7.5 WAR (10th), pretty remarkable results for a group headlined by Chris Carter, Eric Thames & Jesus Aguilar. Things started slipping in 2019 when Aguilar forgot how to hit for four months, though Thames still had a nice year. A combined 107 wRC+ & 1.7 WAR each ranked 15th among MLB 1B. I’d like to think Rowdy (with maybe a lil help from Keston) can at least get those numbers back up to 2019 levels, even average production from 1B would net us a couple win improvement over last year.
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FanGraphs has started rolling out their 2022 Positional Power Rankings, with the Brewers catchers checking in at 25th... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-catcher/ Brewers backstops ranked 4th in WAR last year, 8th in 2020 & have been 3rd in WAR during the Stearns era so I'll take the over.
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Bucks need to go the Al Davis route. Just Win (& stay healthy), Baby. Let the seeds take care of themselves from there. Missing the Nets would be ideal, but there’s only so much you can do with so many moving pieces. If TOR/BRK stay in the 7/8 spots World B. Flat wouldn’t be able to play in Canada, so Nets likely end up #8 if they make it in at all. If TOR climbs up to the 6 spot then BRK is a lot safer bet to end up #7.
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Main difference between Jace & Beaty is defense. Beaty has negative DRS at all four corner spots & has never played 2B in MLB. Jace has been primarily a 2B in MLB (over 2,500 innings) & has also graded out positively at 3B.
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FanGraphs has league average positional splits going back to 2002. Here is the link for league average at SS... https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2021&month=38&season1=2002&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2002-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=1,a Pretty interesting that from 2002 until 2017 league average wRC+ for a SS ranged between 87-92 every year, then starting in 2018 it jumped up to 97, 100, 102 & 99 over the last 4 years, so it appears the offensive bar for SS has risen somewhat from the historical norm. If you want to see how league average offense has evolved for some other positions over the same time frame just make sure to change positions via the "Split" drop down menu vs the positional tabs above for the most accurate results as the positional tabs include all players that played those positions (even if only on a part time basis) while the "Splits" drop down menu option isolates contributions at that specific position.
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I think park effects do a pretty good job with Coors. Holliday COL 06-08: 2003 PAs | 142 OPS+ Holliday STL 09-13: 3151 PAs | 144 OPS+ Walker MON 92-94: 1617 PAs | 137 OPS+ Walker COL 95-04: 4795 PAs | 147 OPS+ Walker STL 04-05: 545 PAs | 134 OPS+ Arenado COL 15-20: 3577 PAs | 127 OPS+ Arenado STL 2021: 653 PAs | 121 OPS+ Story has a career 112 OPS+. Four of his six seasons he has been at 120 OPS+ or higher. Boston is probably the 2nd best hitters park for RH so I would guess Trevor ends up somewhere between his career mark & the 123 OPS+ he posted from 2018-20.
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They still haven't played one game all season with what would have been their postseason rotation before the season started... Jrue / Grayson / Khris / Giannis / Brook / Bobby / Pat / Hill With Carter / Wes / Ibaka added into the mix the depth on this team is so far ahead of where it was last year. Scary thought.
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I’m not saying they never will win a WS, just that using that as a benchmark for a successful season is probably a little overzealous given what we know about how baseball works. Not to be morbid, but Brewers fans die every day having never seen the Brewers win a WS. That’s not over the top dramatic, just a simple fact. -
Evolution of Giannis shooting splits… 0-3 feet 18-21: 50.4% of FGAs | .791 FG% 21-22: 39.1% of FGAs | .814 FG% 3-10 feet 18-21: 16.7% of FGAs | .362 FG% 21-22: 20.2% of FGAs | .416 FG% 10-16 feet 18-21: 7.1% of FGAs | .391 FG% 21-22: 12.8% of FGAs | .414 FG% 16 feet - 3P 18-21: 5.7% of FGAs | .379 FG% 21-22: 7.8% of FGAs | .407 FG% So essentially Giannis has increased both the percentage of FGAs he is taking farther away from the rim while also increasing his FG% on those shots. Pretty impressive. His average shot distance his first MVP season was 7.7 feet, this season it’s at 10.2 feet. League average this season is .436/.430/.400 from 3-10/10-16/16-3P, so Giannis is still a little below average on the first two splits, but the diversification of his offensive game has been a joy to watch this year & it’s crazy to think he’s still getting better.
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Bulls beat the Jazz/Celtics back on OCT 30/NOV 1, since then they are 0-16 against the top 4 seeds in each conference. Haven’t beat a top 3 all season. Hopefully the Bucks can avoid their usual 3rd quarter WOAHs & keep that winless Bulls run going here.
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Must have been a big Shea Vucinich fan.
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I would say that the economic system in baseball clearly favors the large markets so if you are a Milwaukee Brewers fan & your criteria for a successful season is to win the World Series you are probably setting yourself up for a lifetime of disappointment. Peace be the journey.
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If Urias isn't ready to go for Opening Day wonder if Turang could break camp with the club since none of the other backup IF (ok, maybe Pablo Reyes but just barely) can really handle SS.
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Whatever slim chance we might have to keep Burnes or Woodruff or Hader or Adames would be even slimmer if there were a bunch of expensive FA on the roster eating up payroll.
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The Phillies signed Bryce Harper (13/330), Zach Wheeler (5/118) & JT Realmuto (5/115) during 2019-21 free agency. The Phillies went 191-193 from 2019-21, but maybe another 180 million for Schwarber/Castellanos will get them on the right side of .500. The Padres & Mets were the run away champions of last offseason, both missed the playoffs. The Rangers spent over a half billion dollars this offseason & they’ll be lucky to finish third in the ALW.
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If one judges success by signing free agents, I guess it’s hard damn work being a Brewers fan. If one judges success by winning games, the Brewers have won the 7th most in MLB over the last 4 seasons, so that would mean about 23 teams have been even more hard damn work to be a fan of.
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On the FanGraphs leaderboard page it is the second to last tab, after Pitch Info & before StatCast. Definitely helps when comparing players from different eras. Like Ben Gamel (30.5 K%) & Rob Deer (30.4 K%) have nearly identical K rates, but Gamel has a K%+ of 170 compared to 206 for Deer. Here’s a direct link to the Brewers +Stats leaderboard going back to 1970… https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=250&type=23&season=2021&month=0&season1=1970&ind=0&team=23&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=1970-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31
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Read that the deferrals in Freeman’s contract bring the present day value down closer to 140, so it’s not like the Braves reported offers were lowballing him. I actually think both sides “won” here. Freddie is going going, back back, to Cali Cali & gets his 6 years from the best organization in baseball over the last decade. Who knows, maybe he can help them finally win a WS in a 162 game season. Braves get the younger player, who is also a local guy, for two extra years at roughly the same price & he lines up age wise better with ATL’s young core.
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Thanks for posting, damuelle. That Carolina lineup has me thinking about quitting life & moving to Zebulon for the summer.
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Freddie had a 133 OPS+ in 2021, Adames was at 135 with the Brewers, that’s pretty comparable. The Braves WS winning offense was powered largely by bargain bin midseason pickups… DS: Joc, 91 OPS+ when traded. Drove in 41.7% of Braves DS runs in 5% of Braves DS PAs. CS: Rosario, 86 OPS+ when traded. 1647 OPS as NLCS MVP WS: Soler, 76 OPS+ when traded. 1191 OPS as WS MVP.
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Last year the Brewers scored 4.56 runs per game vs an NL average of 4.46 runs per game. Which moves do you believe they’ve made to take the offense from slightly above to well below average?
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In the case of Correa specifically it could just be as simple as the Twins didn’t really have a SS on their roster while the Brewers best player is a SS.
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Phillies were dead last in Defensive Runs Saved last year at -54 & they’ve now added Castellanos (-7 in 2021, -48 career OF) and Schwarber (-8 last year OF/1B, -16 career OF/1B). They are aware they only get one DH, right?
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The Giants won the most games & scored the 6th most runs in MLB. They lost in the 1st round. The Rays won the most games in the AL & scored the 2nd most runs in MLB. They lost in the 1st round. The White Sox won the 3rd most games in the AL & scored the 7th most runs in MLB. They lost in the 1st round. Scoring a lot of runs (or even winning the most games in the regular season) doesn’t guarantee anything because the postseason is overwhelmingly random. The team that won the WS only scored 52 more runs than the Brewers & they were missing a player who scored or drove in 100 of those runs before getting injured.
