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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Yeah, I’m not quite old enough to have seen Lofton, so for me Sterling, Davante & Jordy are pretty much 1ABC as far as Packer receivers in my lifetime. I’d probably give the edge to Sterling of the three just because he did it in a much less passing dominant era, but it’s kinda crazy how close their numbers are… SS | 595 R | 8134 Y | 13.7 Y/R | 65 TD DA | 669 R | 8121 Y | 12.1 Y/R | 73 TD JN | 550 R | 7848 Y | 14.3 Y/R | 69 TD Free & DD are my WR4 & WR5 with Janis as WR6/Special Teams Ace/Hail Mary Catcher & no apologies to Jennings for being left off the squad.
  2. sveumrules
    15 of the top 17 free agents to this point (by total dollars) have signed with teams that didn’t make the playoffs last year. The other two are Freeman & Taylor with the Dodgers. The largest FA contract handed out so far by a 2021 non-Dodgers playoff team is Steven Matz to STL @ 4/44. Luckily for all the big market, high payroll teams with mediocre results (looking at you Mets & Phillies & Angels) 12 teams get in the playoffs now. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022-mlb-free-agent-tracker/sort_column-amount__sort_direction-0
  3. sveumrules
    K%+ is the same idea as OPS+ or ERA+, 100 is average. A 141 K%+ means Weeks struck out 41% more than average. League average K rate has risen from 16.6% in Weeks age 24 season to 22.6% in Hiura’s age 24 season. Using K%+ accounts for those rapidly changing baselines.
  4. sveumrules
    Weeks is an interesting comp, through his age 24 season he had a 141 K%+ and a 102 wRC+. Through his age 24 season Keston has a 152 K%+ and a 101 wRC+. Of course Rickie always walked more so he had that foundation to build off, but he went on to trim his K%+ to 124 and raise his wRC+ to 118 over his age 25-28 seasons. If Hiura could make similar gains there could maybe still be a useful player in there somewhere.
  5. sveumrules
    Please use this thread to post your personal TOP FIVE emojis available on the new BF.com I know it violates all kinds of ethical standards, journalistic integrity & maybe even a few local ordinances to post my TOP FIVE first, forever tainting any subsequent TOP FIVES with subliminal bias, but oh well. ? ? ? ?️ ?
  6. sveumrules
    So two picks, plus Rasul & whoever else we can acquire with however much of that freed up money is left, in exchange for a guy that didn’t want to be here anymore anyway? Sounds like a pretty good deal to me.
  7. sveumrules
    GB is cold/boring, LV is warm/exciting. Could think Rodgers is a flake & is over it. Maybe just wanted to be closer to home, or to prove he can put up numbers without AR12.
  8. sveumrules
    Both Hunter Renfroews in one state? That would have to be some kind of record.
  9. sveumrules
    As someone who admittedly doesn’t know anything about this draft class, should we pick two guys in the late first now that we have the Raiders pick too, or is there an ever elusive “needle mover” we could package the picks together to move up & grab?
  10. sveumrules
    Seems like the kind of return that would interest the Rays, couple of high ceiling guys that are a few years away. I like both Chourio & Kelly quite a bit, but obviously have to give something of value up. Still think JD Davis is the best fit in that he is kind of superfluous on the Mets, has pretty even splits the last three years (133 wRC+ vs RHP, 125 wRC+ vs LHP) and he can at least fake it at the infield corners.
  11. sveumrules
    Hosmer hits the ball on the ground too much to take advantage of AmFam. His 56.8% ground ball rate is 3rd highest in MLB since 2016. Other guys with GB rates that high are Nicky Lopez, Travis Jankowski, Raimel Tapia, Ian Desmond, Dee Gordon, etc
  12. sveumrules
    The average wRC+ for an AL DH has moved around between 105-111 over the last ten years. That seems like a reasonable range for McCutchen in 2022.
  13. sveumrules
    Also looking like Schwarber to Phils, no money details on MLBTR yet.
  14. sveumrules
    Looking like Seiya Suzuki to the Cubs, which is a bummer because I normally like pulling for the guys that come over from Japan. Seems like the comp is a more athletic Hideki Matsui maybe?
  15. sveumrules
    Could be a good day to gain ground in the standings on Weds. Bucks have what should be an easy W at SAC while other East contenders have a lil tougher match ups with PHI @ CLE, CHI @ UTA and BOS @ GSW.
  16. sveumrules
    Set the leaderboard to min 500 PAs vs RHP over 2019-21 & sorted by wRC+. Here are some of the IF/DH that might be available… Brandon Lowe (149 wRC+), Luke Voit (134 wRC+), JD Davis (133 wRC+), Schwarber (131 wRC+), Brad Miller (127 wRC+) Lowe would probably cost too much in prospects & Schwarber would probably cost too much in money but Miller, Davis or Voit could fit nice if the price is right.
  17. sveumrules
    Maybe it’s Stockholm Syndrome or whatever after years of abuse, but I’m probably a little higher on the Cardinals than the computers are. Either way, there was no realistic combination of moves that could vault us up into that Dodgers tier, so being solidly in the second tier of legit contenders with ATL & NYM is a much better spot than most NL clubs will be starting in.
  18. sveumrules
    The Dodgers have made each of the last nine postseasons, winning an MLB best 820 games. The next best team, the Yankees, have only won 759 games over that same stretch. That's an average of about 6-7 wins per season better than the next best team. A pretty significant margin over almost a decades worth of games. A large part of that has been their offense. Over those nine seasons Dodgers position players have posted a 113 wRC+, the best mark in all of MLB. Their 6,398 runs scored was 5th in MLB & 2nd in the NL behind only to the Rockies. Yet, with all that offensive firepower (& the pitching to match, 2nd in rWAR) they only won one World Series in the pandemic shortened 2020 season out of those nine tries. Over the last seven seasons no one has given the Dodgers more of a run for their money than the Astros, winning the 2nd most games (only 29 behind, 634 to 605) during that stretch & making the playoffs six times. The Astros offense has scored the 2nd most runs in MLB over that stretch while tying with the Dodgers for the top wRC+ mark at 113 again. Yet, with all that offensive firepower (& the pitching to match, 3rd in rWAR) they only won one World Series out of those six tries. I'd love getting whatever constitutes a big hitter, but it realistically isn't shifting our World Series odds more than 1 or 2 percent given how overwhelmingly random the postseason is.
  19. sveumrules
    Hiura is like #13.5 for me right now. If he looks closer to the Keston of 2019 in ST I've got not problem with him being in the DH/1B mix to start the season. If he looks more like the Hiura of the last two years he's going to have to earn his way back up from AAA.
  20. sveumrules
    Olson put up 5.8 WAR with a 153 OPS+ last year at age 27 vs a 127 OPS+ & about 4 WAR/140 games through age 26. Also trimmed his K rate from 26.1% through 2020 to 16.8% in 2021, which is pretty nuts in this day & age. Freeman has obviously been historically better, but if whatever changes Olson made last year stick he's a good bet to be the better player over the next 5-6 years, or however long Freddie ends up signing for.
  21. sveumrules
    Good point, totally spaced on Avi, so more of a 1-2 net WAR instead of 4-5 on the OF transactions. Pick up someone better to replace Brosseau/Pederson in the IF mix & I think the position player mix is pretty solid.
  22. sveumrules
    McCutchen & Renfroe combined for 3.7 WAR last year, which is a 4.4 WAR improvement over JBJ’s -0.7 WAR. An extra two months of Adames could be worth another couple wins compared to last year. Even if there hasn’t been a sexy move the needle appears to have maybe moved anyway. Obviously there’s a lot of off-season left, but FanGraphs thinks this is one of the better teams in the NL as currently constructed… https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
  23. sveumrules
    Rodgers got the most money he could, structured in a way that doesn’t hinder the team over the next couple seasons. Were people honestly expecting him to give the team some kind of Brady special?
  24. sveumrules
    Pretty much just comes down to ego for the umps. If I was an umpire, I’d say bring it on. Makes the job easier, wipes out all the needless ball & strike back & forth. Just watch out for foul tips.
  25. sveumrules
    In the FanGraphs Top 50 Free Agents article Ben Clemens had McCutchen at 2/14 while the median crowdsource came in at 2/24. Seems like a pretty reasonable range & would be more or less in line with the JBJ & Avisail contracts from the last couple off seasons.
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