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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Brewers looking for a Developer - Baseball Systems if anyone in our midst would like to try & board the mothership… https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/job-posting-milwaukee-brewers-developer-baseball-systems/
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Yeah, this is pretty much where I’m at. I don’t follow CFB at all & don’t know anything about any of these guys, but the GB FO has demonstrated they have a pretty good idea what they’re doing so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt over random internet melter downers & just enjoy the show.
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Thanks as always @reillymcshane for putting this all together. I’d imagine Korry Howell getting dealt threw a pretty big wrinkle into things this year.
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I think there are probably like a dozen or so teams I’d have on my Seller Watch List right now… BAL, TEX, OAK, KC, DET, PIT, WAS, ARI, COL, CIN, CHC and MIA. Dark horse sellers could be PHI, BOS & CHW who are off to slow starts despite the 4th, 6th & 7th highest OD payrolls. Scanning some teams one name that caught my eye was long coveted DBacks DH Seth Beer with a 150 OPS+ in the early going.
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One game of pouring it on later the Brewers are up to 82 wRC+ (24th) and 3.78 R/G (20th). Team wRC+ going up 7% & R/G increasing by almost half a run after just one game is a pretty great illustration of how early in the season we are & how volatile all these numbers still are.
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Hopefully he can figure it out as the season goes along again & find his rhythm. Purely scouting the stat line, but it looks like Turang is off to a nice start so that mitigates Freddy’s struggles somewhat. Also intriguing they’ve been playing him some in CF. -
Can’t spell Optimism without PIT
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+4 wins on the Pythagorean after only 18 games is pretty impressive.
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Yeah, at the beginning of last season I kind of had Freddy & David Hamilton in the same bucket as SS prospects, with a preference for Hamilton mostly because of the wheels. Then when Freddy closed the season on a tear & they dealt David in the offseason I thought, well, the FO knows more about these guys than me so maybe my preference was off. Now that Hamilton has started hot while Zamora has struggled out of the gates I’m back to thinking I know more than the FO ?
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Suter Vultures his first win of the season!!
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Yeah, if there were some kind of sign stealing shenanigans going on Yelich wouldn’t have been the only one going gang busters.
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Yeah, GameDay has it wrong. Tellez tagged out at home.
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Whoa. Got some Eddie Sedar flashbacks on that Rowdy send.
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Having Wiemer, Valerio & Mitchell starting the year strong at AA has definitely been my favorite part of the young minor league season so far. But tell me how you feel about Zamora’s three errors? ?
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Who got their bets in on the over?
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Believe Braun gets his first of ten 1.8 million dollar checks this year from the deferrals in his last deal.
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Yelich is at 11 hits / 26 million = 2.36 million per hit so far. Some others over 2 million per hit, min 50 PAs... Anthony Rendon 10 hits/ 36 million = 3.6 million per hit. Carlos Correa 10 hits / 35.1 million = 3.51 million per hit. Joey Votto 8 hits / 25 million - 3.13 million per hit. Giancarlo Stanton 12 hits / 29 million = 2.42 million per hit. Miguel Sano 4 hits / 9.25 million = 2.31 million per hit. Josh Donaldson 10 hits / 21 million = 2.1 million per hit. Marcus Semien 12 hits / 25 million = 2.08 million per hit.
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Pirates are at 9 games over, 4 games push, 3 games under on a 7 run O/U. Brewers are at 7 games over, 2 game push, 8 games under on a 7 run O/U. Obviously the predictive power of 16/17 games on run scoring in any single game is next to nil, but the over would appear to be the safer bet so far this year. PIT O (3.56 R/G) + PIT P (5.31 R/G) = 8.87 R/G MKE O (3.29 R/G) + MKE P (3.53 R/G) = 6.82 R/G
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It's only been 17 games. If McCutchen is still posting a 59 wRC+ vs RHP when it has been more than 47 PAs, I'd imagine they will start to reduce his exposure vs RHP. Granted he's only posted an 86 wRC+ over 795 PAs vs RHP since 2019 so there isn't too much upside there, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Brewers told Andrew they'd give him some chances to show he could hit RHP to start the year with the understanding that if he didn't those opportunities would decrease as the season went on,
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Cain has started 10 of 17 games so far, about 59%. He's on pace for for about 362 plate appearances. Not sure that's enough for nearly every day.
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For whatever it is or isn't worth, BPro has them projected 6th in the NL/11th in MLB by DC RS if I counted right, so they are a little higher on the Brewers positive regression potential as the season progresses... https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/ But yeah, in a macro sense the guys we have need to start hitting better and even if (hopefully when) they do Stearns & company are still likely going to need to supplement the offense during the season. However it shakes out, I'm pretty confident they'll end the season much higher than the 75 wRC+ (28th) and 3.29 R/G (26th) marks they've put up through the first 10% of the season,
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I mean sure, the offense has been brutal to start the year & your schtick is being snide on the internet, but the Brewers scored the 2nd most runs in MLB over a three month stretch just last year. That might not be surface of the sun or Hansel level hot, but it was a pretty enjoyable burn nonetheless.
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Every team that makes the postseason is a threat to win the WS. Some are bigger threats than others. Even with the offense as currently constituted 538, FanGraphs & BPro have the Brewers between the 4th-8th highest WS odds in all of MLB. The only two teams with better WS odds than the Brewers in all three systems are LAD & NYY. If your satisfaction baseline for the Brewers is “real threat to win the WS” you’ll likely never be satisfied because the economic structure of MLB ensures that teams like MIL & TB will always be underdogs. Embrace that mindset & maybe you’ll hear the angels trumpets blaring from heaven above instead of a wet fart noise.
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Their coaching staff will probably have them all running 120 wRC+ by the end of the season too. By names alone there is no way they should be anywhere NEAR the Dodgers. Hard not to have respect for what Farhan and crew have pulled off the last couple two tree years.
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Something else to consider when trying to contextualize the offense's performance, via Mike Petriello... On pulled fly balls & line drives (typically the most valuable batted ball types), in the stadiums that already had humidors installed, offense in those parks is barely down: .003 of OBP and .005 of SLG. In the parks where they put in humidors, OBP is down .035 points and SLG is down .107.
