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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    That seems pretty unfair. Do you have some sort of inside information as proof they only want to hire white guys? The proof is in the historical pudding... https://theconversation.com/why-most-nfl-head-coaches-are-white-behind-the-nfls-abysmal-record-on-diversity-174833 "The gains have since diminished, though, and the number of Black head coaches at the start of the 2021 season, three, was the same as in 2003."
  2. sveumrules
    Thanks for the heads up on Prospects Live. From the team lists published so far the available scouting reports are pretty thorough. Looks like they do a lot of draft coverage too, & noted 2022 has pretty solid depth for college pitching. Wouldn't be surprised at all if the Brewers go college pitcher heavy this year with not much in the pipeline after Ashby/Small.
  3. sveumrules
    Putting in Selig (who oversaw the whole fiasco) and Torre/TLR (who turned a blind eye because they were winning games), but excluding just certain players seems like a pretty glaring double triple standard to me. But ownership/management vs the players is one of the oldest stories in baseball & one that's playing out again in yet another iteration at this very moment, so not really all that surprising I guess.
  4. sveumrules
    I don't know, maybe it hasn't updated for 2022, but the MLB Top 30 has Ashby #8 & Wiemer #21, which seem like pretty dubious rankings to me. Ashby's other ranks are #1 (BA & FG) & #3 (BP). Wiemer's other ranks are #2 (FG), #5 (BP) & #8 (BA).
  5. sveumrules
    I mean they could probably "rebuild" around AR12/DA17 and still win the NFCN. Nine wins is all it would have taken this year.
  6. sveumrules
    I take it that you aren't real high on Keith's evaluation of prospects? Just curious how everyone here feels about all of these prospect evaluators? Are there some that you think more highly of than others? I noticed that Law only had one Cubs prospects in his recent Top 100 - Brennan Davis. So, I was pleasantly surprised that we had two guys in his list, while the Cubs only had one. For me personally I like the FanGraphs content the most, just because it is free & the most comprehensive. Baseball America has been around forever, so I guess I would probably put them 2nd. BPro, MLB, KLaw, etc are all kind of a notch below for me personally. I think the thing with Law specifically is it seems like he digs his heels in on guys sometimes & is slow to consider new information/change his evaluation.
  7. sveumrules
    Last year the Mets spent just under 200 million (3rd most in MLB) to go 77-85. Maybe another 100 million can get them up to .500
  8. sveumrules
    KLaw being the high guy on Turang makes me even more OK with dealing Brice if we make a prospects for proven MLB bat kind of swap.
  9. sveumrules
    Parity or parody?
  10. sveumrules
    Yeah, with Mahomes out it guarantees that Brady remains the only QB with multiple SB wins & NE remains the only franchise with multiple SB wins during the Rodgers era. The Packers have pretty objectively been the 2nd best franchise in the NFL during Aaron's time here, which is still much more of a success than a failure in my estimation.
  11. sveumrules
    I'd be cool with Yusmeiro. Over the last five seasons he's at 363 IP (1st) with a 72 ERA- which shakes out to 7.6 rWAR & +8.27 WPA, with both those marks ranking 6th among all relievers. His peripherals, 89 FIP- & 102 xFIP-, and age (37 for the 2022 season) could keep the size of his contract in reasonable range.
  12. sveumrules
    For the same reason Cooper Hummel didn't get a shot at MLB even after going to the worst team in the league at the deadline, because there's more to it than just a stat line. Hoby Milner (1.69 ERA | 24.0 K/BB ratio | 0.6 HR9) had an even prettier AAA line than Barker (2.35 ERA | 7.7 K/BB ratio | 1.3 HR9), but got lit up in his 21 MLB IP. That 1.3 HR9 for Barker is probably the most telling number in his stat line, if AAA hitters are taking him deep with that frequency what are MLB hitters going to do?
  13. sveumrules
    That "steroids" are even an issue is pretty much a joke when the Commish who presided over the whole ordeal is already enshrined.
  14. sveumrules
    How does Ortiz get in on first ballot when a guy like Bagwell who (checks notes) was a better hitter, fielder and base runner than Ortiz has to wait until his 7th ballot? It's not like its particularly close either: +137 BAT, +65 BSR, +159 DEF. Add it all up & Bagwell has almost a 30 WAR edge on Ortiz. Sure, Ortiz's post season heroics give him the edge in the Fame department, but for me that isn't enough to cancel out that 30 WAR edge Bagwell had, or the six extra ballots Bagwell had to wait out before election. Then you throw in that Ortiz's link to PEDs is much more direct than whatever rumors swirled around Bagwell & it makes even less sense.
  15. sveumrules
    Roster Resource lists Hiura as having one option year remaining, so he's still got at least until 2023 before its MLB or bust.
  16. sveumrules
    Now that the Packers 2021 season is officially over & the year is 2022, figured I'd get a new thread going. Feel free to continue discussion from the 2021 thread or talk about the Rodgers situation or ruminate on MM/BK/MLF or dream on the upcoming draft/potential Rodgers trade haul or all the various salary cap scenarios or...
  17. sveumrules
    Previous NFL thread is coming up on 100 pages & it is 2022 now, so here's a new one. Looks like Bengals/Chiefs is the early game Sunday followed by 49ers/Rams.
  18. sveumrules
    Yeah, Houser is one of more than a few starting pitchers that the Brewers seem to have been able to work their FIP Beating Magic on since Stearns & company arrived... Davies (580 IP) 3.92 ERA | 4.24 FIP Chase (578 IP) 3.80 ERA | 4.67 FIP Adrian (271 IP) 4.12 ERA | 4.41 FIP Guerra (320 IP) 3.99 ERA | 4.62 FIP Jhoulys (281 IP) 4.22 ERA | 4.55 FIP Gio G (106 IP) 3.39 ERA | 4.09 FIP Lauer (113 IP) 3.89 ERA | 4.20 FIP Miley (80 IP) 2.57 ERA | 3.59 FIP Lyles (58 IP) 2.45 ERA | 4.42 FIP Collectively those pitchers posted 25.8 FIP based WAR vs 39.4 runs allowed WAR, that's almost 14 extra wins between some mixture of new fandangled analytics & good old fashioned luck. One thing that might help the perception other clubs have of Houser relative to other recent Brewer FIP beaters is that he probably has the best stuff, or at least the best velocity, of the group.
  19. sveumrules
    Pretty much where I'm at. Would prefer to keep as much pitching depth as possible since there isn't really much on the horizon to get excited about once Ashby/Small graduate. Outside of Wiemer, I would trade any of our position prospects in the right deal. Turang might have a limited ceiling due to his lack of power, but his floor is pretty high as a near MLB ready SS who could probably already handle the defensive half of the equation. Mitchell/Frelick are a little redundant with similar profiles as contact oriented batters with the wheels & arm for CF, but not enough pop to put them over the top as prospects. If one of Garrett/Sal plus Brice as co-headliners & then one of the teenagers (Quero, Hedbert, Chourio, Garcia) or A ball guys (Valerio, Black, Gray, Zamora, Howell, Warren) thrown in for the 3rd/4th piece(s) isn't enough to get the ever elusive needle mover, hold tight & see how things look at the deadline. Would love Schwarber for DH if that happens, but have a feeling he ends up landing a deal too big for the Brewers budget. My guess would be one of Soler, Conforto or a Nelson Cruz homecoming if they sign a FA bat.
  20. sveumrules
    Not sure about DVOA, but the Packers did give up the 2nd most rushing yards to QBs this year, 455 yards in 76 attempts, about a 6 yard average. Running backs picked up 1,302 yards on 304 carries, a 4.3 yard average. By pure yardage that was the 6th lowest total in the NFL. It would appear the Packers overall run defense stats have been dragged down quite a bit by QBs, while they've fared much better at "stopping the run" in the traditional sense.
  21. sveumrules
    Urias at 3.0 & Adames at 2.9, so just barely. The computer probably isn't programmed to suss out Willy's unique home/road splits at the Trop, so he's a good bet to sail past his 256/328/452 projection TB home | 626 PAs | 219/277/347 TB road | 628 PAs | 291/363/495 Brewers | 413 PAs | 285/366/521
  22. sveumrules
    Great example of how players with drastically different skill sets can produce similar value, yet massive differences in perception. Since 2018, McNeil's first season... Jeff | 1450 PAs | 12.5 K% | 124 OPS+ | +21 FLD | 11.2 WAR Joey | 1716 PAs | 35.7 K% | 117 OPS+ | +37 FLD | 11.7 WAR The main things holding back the perception of McNeil are that he is a late bloomer (two years older with 1,000 fewer career PAs than Gallo) and he bombed last year without the juicy ball. Obviously the Ks & resulting low batting average are what hinders the perception of Gallo. Similar players, but McNeil would likely cost more to acquire given the additional years of team control & positional versatility vs Gallo as a one year rental.
  23. sveumrules
    Yelich's 126 OPS+ projection pretty much splitting his Marlins (121 OPS+) and career (132 OPS+) marks down the middle. Obviously not MVP calibre stuff, but even a return to just being an above average OF would be a big boost from the last two years. Still think they bring in at least one more bat via FA or trade once the CBA is sorted & probably sign a couple low dollar free agent pitchers in the Anderson/Boxberger vein. At this point it looks like the 2022 NLC is going to be MIL/STL in the contender tier, CHI/CIN in the pretender tier & PIT in the surrender tier.
  24. sveumrules
    Gallo had a 34.6% K rate in 2021. If that is nearly 40% it's nearly-er 30%. He also had a .351 OBP & .458 SLG which made his overall contribution in the batter's box about 21% better than league average by OPS+, even with the low average & high strikeouts. Throw in +2 runs on the bases & +15 runs in the field & BRef had him down for 4.7 WAR in 2021.
  25. sveumrules
    I don't think that is tempting at all. Given the way Stearns & company have approached 1B during their time here I'd imagine they don't value Walsh anywhere near as highly as they value Woodruff.
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