sveumrules

Earlier in the season, I was trying to think of ways the Brewers could convince him to not exercise the option, but then I just resigned myself to the fact that he and Cain will both be Brewers next year, Garcia will not, and our outfield will make (I believe) $55M, making it difficult for the Brewers to sign any free agents this offseason. Kind of depends on how Brewers accounting handles deferrals relative to yearly payroll. Cot's has Yelich at 26 million (4 deferred), Cain at 18 million (1 deferred) and JBJ at 9.5 million (6.5 deferred) for 2022 so that would only be 42 million "on the books". JBJ also has an 8 million buyout on his 2023 option, but most of that (7 million) isn't actually due to be paid until 2025.

For sure. Pretty amazing all around what this team has accomplished thus far with league average Yelich, injured Cain, abysmal Hiura, JBJ at the plate, 450 PAs of 60-ish wRC+ from Shaw/McKinney/Robertson/Reyes, etc. Even with everything that has turned out less than ideally, FanGraphs has the Brewers CF at 12th in WAR currently, with their positive baserunning (+4.6) & fielding (+9.5) outweighing their negative performance (-11.9) in the batter's box.

JBJ has played the 36th most innings in the outfield this season & would lose 11 million dollars by turning down his option. Possible is anything, but any team that for some reason would want to offer even more playing time to JBJ will likely have to acquire him via trade after he picks up his option.

From what I can tell, the CBA expires December 1st. Believe the Qualifying Offer deadline is like a week after the World Series or something? Would imagine teams will still be making QOs, but with the understanding the terms of those QOs could either change or disappear completely depending on how the new CBA shakes out. That uncertainty around the CBA, combined with all the Arby's raises incoming, makes me think the Brewers will be more likely to not offer Avi the QO.

If the Brewers lose this game they will be 9-11 in Anderson starts & 7-6 in Lauer starts. It might not feel like it, but playing one game under .500 for your 5th/6th starters means they are giving their team a chance to win every once in awhile.

That's awesome. Think I posted this elsewhere recently, but Hader/Williams are top two on the 2020-21 reliever leaderboards for pretty much every significant stat now... Win Probability Added: Hader +4.60 (1st) Williams +4.47 (2nd) Karinchak +3.75 (3rd) Runs Allowed Based WAR: Williams 3.0 (1st) Hader 2.9 (2nd) Melancon/Breslow 2.6 (3rd) K%: Hader 43.4% (1st) Williams 42.3% (2nd) Rosenthal 41.8% (3rd)

The structure of the JBJ contract is so convoluted it might not be as much of a hindrance as it seems, at least for 2022. From Cot's... 21:$6.5M, 22:$9.5M player option ($6.5M buyout), 23:$12M mutual option ($8M buyout) $3.5M of 2021 salary is deferred, payable $333,333 on Jan. 14, 2022 and $3M on Jan. 13, 2023, and $166,667 on Jan. 12, 2023 $6.5M of player option would be deferred, payable $333,333 on Jan. 13, 2022, and $6.167M on Jan. 12, 2024 $6.5M buyout for 2022 would be payable $3M on Jan. 14, 2022, and $333,333 on Jan. 13, 2023, and $3.167M on Jan. 12, 2024 $8M buyout for 2023 would be payable $1M on Jan. 12, 2024, and $7M on Jan. 15, 2025 From the looks of that his salary for this season is only 3 million. Assuming he picks up the 9.5 million option for 2022, his actual salary is still only 3 million with the deferrals. I'm no accountant, but if I'm understanding correctly it looks like around 17 million of the 24 million guarantee will actually be paid out between 2023-25.

Adam Frazier got one of those hits. Currently at 229/275/271 (54 OPS+) in 104 PAs with San Diego. Perfectly encapsulating the vagaries of trade deadline acquisitions, small samples & regression to the mean.

Since both leagues started playing 162 games in 1962 there have been 64 teams to win 100 games in a season, so essentially like one per year.

Defense & Baserunning during the Stearns/Counsell era... 2016: +24 DRS | +5.2 BSR 2017: +23 DRS | +2.4 BSR 2018: +121 DRS | +8.2 BSR 2019: +26 DRS | +5.9 BSR 2020: -9 DRS | -17.6 BSR (Hey, Wha Happened?!?!?) 2021: +51 DRS | +9.0 BSR Add it all up & the Brewers are 5th in Defensive Runs Saved (+156) during the Stearns/Counsell era & 13th in baserunning (+13.0). Definitely one of the primary reasons the Brewers have won the 8th most games since 2016 with a bottom 5/6 payroll.

Wainwright is Hall of Very Good for me. 2,332 innings of 3.42 FIP / 3.36 ERA (119 ERA+) works out to 44.5 fWAR / 39.3 bWAR. Lots of people seem to think Greinke is borderline HOF and he is at 3,094 innings of 3.42 FIP / 3.37 ERA (125 ERA+) which works out to 64.2 fWAR / 69.5 bWAR.

I think this is an interesting point in noting the fact that speed isn't the sole thing that makes a baserunner. Wong is a fantastic baserunner, despite the lack of true high-level speed. Yeah, Kolten's sprint speed from 2015-19 was 27.5 to 27.7 feet per second which had him around the 208th to 238th fastest player depending on the year. Yet his baserunning value came in at +16.1 runs, 27th best over that span. From 2020-21 it has dropped down to between 26.7 & 26.8 feet per second which has him around the 247th to 315th in terms of sprint speed, but his baserunning value of +2.8 runs ranks 40th over that span.

Wong has posted an .860 OPS on the road vs a .790 OPS at home this year. AmFam hasn't really been doing the Brewers many favors with a .696 OPS at home vs a .747 OPS on the road so far this year.

Votto is a pretty easy yes for me with 63.3 career WAR / 46.9 peak WAR. Average Hall of Fame 1B is at 66.9 career WAR / 42.7 peak WAR. Joey's got a career 148 OPS+, pretty much right in line with guys like Bagwell (149), McCovey (147), Thome (147), Pujols (145), Cabrera (145), Killebrew (143), Ortiz (141).

Cot's has the Brewers around 70 million in 2022 for Yelich, Cain, JBJ, Kolten & Freddy. Arby's guys Burnes, Adames, Urias, Houser, Tellez (1st year) Woodruff (2nd year) Hader, Narvaez, Suter (3rd year) & Jace (4th year) made around 18 million in 2021 so they will see a signifigant bump on that figure in 2022. Even if they raise Opening Day payroll from 99 million in 2021 to what would be a franchise record of 125 million in 2022, there still might not be much money for free agents without moving one of Cain/JBJ.

Yeah, letting a guy that would have been like our 4th or 5th best reliever slip through the cracks is a preeeetttyy bad look. Here are some things I would consider worse looks... The Yankees spending like 100 million more dollars to win fewer games than us, the Mets spending like 95 million more dollars to win fewer games than us, the Phillies spending like 90 million more dollars to win fewer games than us, the Nationals spending like 85 million more dollars to win fewer games than us, the Angels & Red Sox spending like 80 million more dollars to win fewer games than us, the Padres spending like 75 million more dollars to win fewer games than us, the Cardinals spending like 60 million more dollars to win fewer games than us, the Cubs spending like 40 million more dollars to win fewer games than us, the Blue Jays spending like 35 million more dollars to win fewer games than us, the White Sox spending like 30 million more dollars to win fewer games than us in an even weaker division, the Braves spending like 30 million more dollars to win fewer games than us, the Twins spending like 25 million more dollars to win fewer games than us, the Reds spending like 20 million more dollars to in most likelihoods end up winning fewer games than us, the Orioles having a .311 winning percentage, the DBacks having a .331 winning percentage (with an opening day payroll only like 5 million below ours), the Rangers having a .350 winning percentage (also with an OD payroll only like 5 million below ours), the Pirates having a .358 winning percentage, the Marlins having a .408 winning percentage, the Royals having a .443 winning percentage, the Rockies having a .463 winning percentage (with a higher OD payroll than ours), the Indians barely even cracking 50 million in payroll at all.

My lineup guess would be... Wong Adames Yelich Garcia Escobar Cain Urias Pina

Random lefty starter + Sunday day game at AmFam could spell trouble for the Crew. I'm giving them a 50/50 chance to win the game, they either will or won't.

It's not impossible at all. Entering the game he had 359 PAs with a 46 OPS+. That is worth -24 runs. BRef valued his base running & double play avoidance at +3 runs, his fielding at +9 runs, gave him a +1 positional adjustment for playing mostly CF and 12 more runs for playing time equaling an even 0.0 WAR. JBJ has been bad for sure, but his contract is far from the worst in the sport. Strasburg is getting 35 million to be hurt, Verlander is getting 33 million to be hurt, Cabrera (30 million), Rendon (27.5 million), Corbin (24 million), Carpenter (18.5 million) & Bellinger (16 million) have been negative WAR. From what I can tell Bauer (28 million) & Ozuna (16 million) are still getting paid more than JBJ while their legal situations play out.

Hiura will have to earn his way back for sure, but for whatever it is or isn't worth he's only been among the worst hitters in the NL this year (minimum 150 PAs) & not even the worst hitter on his own team... Sandy Leon 42 wRC+ | JBJ 47 wRC+ | Josh Fuentes 50 wRC+ | Erik Gonzalez 51 wRC+ | Kevin Newman 52 wRC+ | Shogo Akiyama 53 wRC+ | Mangueris Sierra 54 wRC+ | Michael Perez 54 wRC+ | Keston Hiura 54 wRC+ If we expand it out to include the AL there are another nine players with a wRC+ of 54 of below, one of whom is Jarred Kelenic with a 147/244/272 (50 wRC+) line.

Brewers franchise value looks to be 1.2 billion. Let's say for the sake of easy math that Giannis bought 1% for 12 million. He just paid JBJ's salary. Thanks Giannis!!

But he still gets to stay on as Executive Producer? That makes sense. Never ceases to amaze me how stoopid some allegedly smart people are.

Alcides in the two hole.

Devin has thrown six more scoreless innings since the last bump giving him 37.2 IP | 1.43 ERA | 60 K | 17 BB since his slow start to the season. He & Hader now have the 2020-21 reliever leaderboards pretty much on lock... Win Probability Added: Hader +4.48 (1st) Williams +4.17 (2nd) Karinchak +3.78 (3rd) Runs Allowed Based WAR: Hader 2.8 (t-1st) Williams 2.8 (t-1st) Melancon 2.4 (3rd) K%: Hader 43.8% (1st) Williams 42.6% (2nd) Hendriks 42.4% (3rd)

Great at robbing home runs probably, really big strike zone though.