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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Looks like Nunn was the Mid Level Exception. THT was a restricted free agent, so I believe they were able to go over the cap to sign him. From what I can tell Bazemore, Monk, Ariza & Ellington all signed vet mins.
  2. sveumrules
    They won the game last night. Only one team has won more games than them all year. They don't need to start focusing, just to continue.
  3. sveumrules
    Checks out. Identical 108 FIP- in both 2020 & 2021 for Houser. Brewers posted an infield defense of -13 DRS in 2020 (-3 1B, -8 2B, -3 SS, +2 3B) vs +6 DRS so far in 2021 (+2 1B, +3 2B, +2 SS, -1 3B).
  4. sveumrules
    Current World Series Odds are... PECOTA: 11% (3rd) | 538: 10% (3rd) | FanGraphs: 7.9% (4th) Will be interesting to see if they do drop slightly if the Brewers take over the #1 seed at some point, setting up a tougher NLDS match up with the Wild Card winner as opposed to vs the NL East winner if they are the #2 seed.
  5. sveumrules
    Decided to leave off the MLB relievers who will be losing eligibility shortly to open up a few more spots. Also pretty exciting that some of the International kids are starting to trickle over stateside. After getting very little out of Latin America for so long due mostly to minimal investment, it's encouraging to see some early glimmers from Stearns & company's increased efforts starting to shine through. 01. Garrett Mitchell 02. Aaron Ashby 03. Ethan Small 04. Brice Turang 05. Hedbert Perez 06. Sal Frelick 07. Mario Feliciano 08. Joe Gray Jr. 09. David Hamilton 10. Tyler Black 11. Korry Howell 12. Zavier Warren 13. Jeferson Quero 14. Felix Valerio 15. Abner Uribe 16. Antoine Kelly 17. Eduardo Garcia 18. Jackson Chourio 19. Freddy Zamora 20. Hendry Mendez 21. Alec Bettinger 22. Dylan File 23. Justin Bullock 24. Carlos Luna 25. Max Lazar
  6. sveumrules
    Yeah, would imagine Thanasis is back for sure & also wouldn't be surprised if he gets a little more playing time than the 57 G / 551 minutes he logged last season. I think the recent 2nd rounders will be two way/G League guys so I'd have the roster something like... PG: Jrue / MLE SG: DDV / Pat SF: Khris / Nwora PF: Giannis / Semi C: Brook / Bobby Garbage Time: Bryant, Merrill, Thanasis, Diakite Guessing they leave the 15th spot open for future flexibility or they could split the MLE between a backup PG & maybe a backup SF with better defensive chops than Nwora.
  7. sveumrules
    How about Patty Mills on the MLE to back up Jrue? Looks like he's coming off a 4/50 deal that paid him 13.5 million last season. Probably a pipe dream but seems like one of the better fits still out there, guessing he doesn't sign until after the Olympics though.
  8. sveumrules
    Cubs only have about 40 million on the books next year for Heyward, Hendriks, Bote & Arrieta's buyout. Their only notable Arby's guys are Contreras & Happ, who will probably come in a little under 20 million combined. Cots has their opening day payroll going from 203 million in 2019 to 148 million this year. Of the 14 Cubs prospects FanGraphs has rated a 45 FV or higher their ETAs are 2021 (3), 2022 (2), 2023 (2), 2024 (3) and 2025 (4), with all of the top 5 and 7 of the top 10 having ETAs between 2023-25. I think the Cubs are in for at least a couple two tree years of lower payrolls than they were running the last five six seasons.
  9. sveumrules
    Also looks like they re-signed Bobby using the Non-Bird Exception, so they still have the full Mid Level Exception to go after somebody(s) else.
  10. sveumrules
    Assumed that was for PJ, when I saw it was for Portis my eyes got bigger than Bobby's.
  11. sveumrules
    Heard Braun demanded they acquire Axford before he would even consider a comeback.
  12. sveumrules
    Good question. Believe that only applies to players on the 40 man roster.
  13. sveumrules
    July (14-10) was a weird month. 12 of 14 wins had a run differential of 4 or more versus only 1 of 10 losses, while the Brewers only went 2-9 in either/or games with a run differential of 3 or fewer. Full July breakdown... Wins (12-0): 1st 7-2 | 2nd 7-2 | 3rd 11-2 | 7th 5-0 | 16th 11-6 | 18th 8-0 | 23rd 7-1 | 24th 6-1 | 27th 9-0 | 28th 7-3 | 29th 12-0 | 30th 9-5 Losses (0-1): 31st 1-8 Either/Or (2-9): 4th 0-2 | 5th 2-4 | 7th 3-4 (8) | 8th 5-3 | 9th 0-2 | 10th 3-4 | 11th 1-3 | 17th 7-4 (11) | 20th 2-5 | 21st 3-6 | 25th 1-3 That brings the season total to 30 wins, 15 losses and 32-28 in either/or games. Run differentials are +176 in wins, -95 in losses & +6 in either/or. April, May, June breakdowns if anybody curious...
  14. sveumrules
    My guess is not much. Something around the value of Peyton Henry maybe. He's a rental who is not having a great year by his standards. Whatever we offered was deemed less valuable than a comp pick. Deemed less valuable than a comp pick by the most incompetent organization in MLB.
  15. sveumrules
    That's my understanding as well. We have Bird rights on PJ, so can go over the cap to resign him, but the billionaires will have to pay some amount of luxury tax. Portis is limited to the Mid Level Exception, which I think is like 5-6 million this year. If he signed the MLE for one season, I believe the Bucks would then have his Bird rights for the following season & could offer him a longer/larger contract then.
  16. sveumrules
    Olson for Curtiss & Henry for Norris would have made more sense to me given their respective results over the last two years & Curtiss having so much more team control remaining, but whatever, I'll take it. Among 132 relievers with at least 50 IP since 2020 Curtiss ranks 10th in ERA- (53), 30th in FIP- (73) & 25th in xFIP- (79). For comparison, here's how the current Brewers relievers stack up by ERA- | FIP- | xFIP- since 2020... Williams (61 IP) 43 | 55 | 55 Hader (57 IP) 58 | 60 | 68 Curtiss (59 IP) 53 | 73 | 79 Norris (62 IP) 104 | 75 | 76 Suter (65 IP) 74 | 90 | 83 Boxberger (58 IP) 70 | 102 | 101 Strickland (41 IP) 86 | 106 | 113 Cousins (13 IP) 0 | 45 | 71 Sanchez (14 IP) 60 | 103 | 98 That is some kind of bullpen. Here's a pretty interesting read on John's developement from FanGraphs back in June... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/john-curtiss-now-with-control/
  17. sveumrules
    Because Westbrook has a 44 million salary for this year, plus a 47 million player option for next season & doesn't really have as much impact on winning games as his gaudy box score stats might suggest.
  18. sveumrules
    He added a cutter this year, which he is throwing around 12.4% of the time, so he's likely better now (3.75 FIP in 2021) than he has been before (4.36 FIP prior to 2021) but still not as good as his current 2.87 ERA.
  19. sveumrules
    Except Pomeranz sucked as a starter and then improved when he went to the pen. Norris sucked in the bullpen and we are...keeping him in the bullpen. Except Norris hasn't really sucked in the bullpen. His ERA- of 104 out of the pen is slightly below average, but his FIP- of 75 & xFIP- of 76 (which hold much more predictive power over a sample of only 62 IP than ERA does) place him within the top 20-35 relievers in MLB over the last two years.
  20. sveumrules
    Among 132 relievers with at least 50 IP since 2020 Norris ranks 34th in FIP- (75) and 18th in xFIP- (76). The front office seems to believe those underlying indicators are more indicative of Daniel's true talent level than his ERA- of 104.
  21. sveumrules
    Rizzo is a free agent after the year, so I think ultimately the Yanks keep Voit, use him as DH/1B insurance the rest of this year once he's off the IL & then plug him back in at 1B for 2022.
  22. sveumrules
    Looks like the other two prospects are Gerardo Carrillo (late inning reliever profile) and Donovan Casey (boom or bust toolsy OF profile)... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting-the-nationals-return-for-max-scherzer-and-trea-turner/
  23. sveumrules
    Rowdy has looked pretty good at 1B so far & is under team control for three more seasons.
  24. sveumrules
    Interesting wrinkle I hadn't realized until just now, Josiah Gray was originally a 2nd round pick of the Reds in 2018. That winter Cincinnati traded him to the Dodgers along with Jeter Downs (later part of the Mookie Betts deal) and Homer Bailey in exchange for Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Kyle Farmer and cash. I think it's safe to say the Dodgers won that one.
  25. sveumrules
    This was my thinking...that sure doesn't seem like a huge return for those two. That's because you over value name recognition & under value prospects relative to MLB front offices. Scherzer & Turner both project around 1.5 to 2 WAR rest of season. Turner will probably project around 6 WAR for next year. So the Dodgers just traded for about 10 WAR. They are due about 17 million in salary this year, plus say another 19 million for Turner in Arby's next season so 36 million. At nine million per WAR the Dodgers acquired around 54 million in surplus value. The Trade Valuation tools posted upthread both have the Dodgers prospect package over 60 million in surplus value.
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