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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Agreed. Can't believe the Cubs are giving this one away like this. Don't they realize they are already five games back and down 8-3 in the season series?
  2. sveumrules
    At work, so haven't been able to watch, just checking on GameDay here & there. Don't have an issue with going bullpen day here, but it seems like starting Ashby was maybe a little too much given the stakes. Would have let someone who has gotten an MLB batter out before start the game & then bring in Ashby some inning in the middle when the bottom of the order is up to give him a lil easier assignment. Either way, getting back in the game after that 1st inning is pretty awesome & coming back for the win to complete the sweep would be even awesome-er.
  3. sveumrules
    2021 stats: Nolan Arenado: .266/.319/.509 827 OPS, 132 OPS+, 2.3 bWAR Adolis Garcia: .279/.318/.550 867 OPS, 134 OPS+, 2.7 bWAR Randy Arozarena: .263/.345/.421 766 OPS, 120 OPS+, 2.2 bWAR Patrick Wisdom: .277/.341/.699 1039 OPS, 182 OPS+, 1.4 bWAR It sure is nice to see players experience success after leaving the Cardinals after so many years of the opposite happening. Carson Kelly also at 133 OPS+ / 1.8 bWAR, Sandy Alcantara at 128 ERA+ / 2.3 bWAR. Luke Voit has been hurt most of this year, but has posted 138 OPS+ / 4.1 WAR post-STL with the Yankees.
  4. sveumrules
    With the death of the single & the ascendancy of the all or nothing HR/K approach, I was curious just how many players in 2021 were currently posting at least a league average batting line (wRC+ 100 or better), while striking out at a below average rate (K%+ under 100), and getting hits more frequently than average (AVG+ over 100), but also slugging at a below average clip (ISO+ less than 100). Out of 197 players with at least 150 plate appearances so far there were 24 that met the criteria... PLAYER | K%+ | AVG+ | wRC+ | ISO+ Madrigal | 33 | 125 | 116 | 73 Brantley | 46 | 142 | 150 | 95 Arraez | 46 | 120 | 107 | 95 Frazier | 48 | 137 | 143 | 86 Merrifield | 54 | 117 | 105 | 85 Verdugo | 58 | 114 | 110 | 97 Rojas | 61 | 106 | 109 | 91 Segura | 62 | 137 | 132 | 81 LeMahieu | 63 | 112 | 103 | 63 Bregman | 68 | 113 | 120 | 92 Soto | 68 | 113 | 126 | 94 Harrison | 68 | 112 | 101 | 62 France | 75 | 106 | 117 | 95 Crawford | 75 | 116 | 110 | 71 Yermin | 75 | 112 | 104 | 81 Pavin | 76 | 114 | 101 | 79 Benintendi | 79 | 116 | 111 | 88 Daza | 82 | 135 | 106 | 58 Rosario | 83 | 114 | 100 | 74 Dickerson | 87 | 109 | 101 | 71 Lowrie | 89 | 101 | 100 | 78 Goldschmidt | 92 | 103 | 104 | 98 India | 93 | 109 | 114 | 83 Pham | 99 | 105 | 126 | 96 Closest Brewers to making the cut were Wong (66 K%+ | 122 AVG+ | 128 wRC+) and Narvaez (78 K%+ | 122 AVG+ | 136 wRC+), but they both slugged too much with ISO+ marks of 119 & 104, respectively.
  5. sveumrules
    Yup. +25 by DRS & +22.2 UZR in 2748 career OF innings. Also +17 on the bases per FanGraphs / +10 per BRef for his career so Gallo has added solid value with his legs for a 6'5", one eighth ton 3TO guy too.
  6. sveumrules
    Pretty interesting article at FanGraphs today about the cat & mouse game going on between pitchers & Yelich the last couple years... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/theres-a-new-old-book-on-christian-yelich/ As the rolling zone % graph illustrates pitchers have started to challenge Yelich more as he's shown an increasingly passive/decreasingly powerful approach since 2020. Hopefully everything is coming together for Christian body & approach wise to start punishing those mistakes with more frequency. I know I'm taking the over on his current .404 slugging.
  7. sveumrules
    I think this should be the begining of Haines
  8. sveumrules
    Aguilar continues to make all too much sense for the Brewers. Competent defense at first with a thumper-type bat that they seem to need this year. Don't see Aguilar as a fit, mostly because he is 1B only, but also because he started out hot with a 975 OPS over 143 PAs through May 13th, but since then he has posted a 588 OPS over 148 PAs dropping his season total 200 points down to 773. Ideally with Urias as the starting 3B & backup SS/2B, plus the uncertainty around Hiura, a fifth IF who could play 1B/3B would give two deep coverage at each spot before having to resort to the Peter/Robertsons of the world. As it relates to the Marlins, its not a perfect fit since he isn't really a 1B, but Miguel Rojas pretty much fits the mold of a Stearns & company guy to a T. Primarily a plus SS (+21 DRS / +26.6 UZR in 3826 innings), has also graded out plus at 3B (+6 DRS / +5.6 UZR in 541 innings) and 2B (+3 DRS / +3.6 UZR in 312 innings). Might not look impressive with a career 88 wRC+, but has posted a 109 so far this year (Aguilar is 112) and a 142 last year for a 122 mark over his last 372 PAs. ZiPs isn't completely buying it, but still projects him at a 103 wRC+ moving forward. Also rarely strikes out with a 56 K%+, a top ten mark since 2019. Top it all off & he is a free agent at the end of the season so the acquisition cost should be low. *EDIT* whoops, looks like 5.5 million team option for 2022 that Miguel is on track to guarantee with a vesting PA clause, so might have to give up a little something, if the Marlins are even interested in dealing him.
  9. sveumrules
    After pouring on 14 runs last night, the Brewers seasonal runs per game went from 4.09 (20th) to 4.22 (18th), so it took all of eight games for our seasonal mark to close that gap. Brewers now at 25-10 post trade scoring 4.91 runs per games with a position player wRC+ of 104 in the Adames era.
  10. sveumrules
    Last night Hiura hit an opposite field HR on a 97 MPH fastball at the top of the zone. His wRC+ was 26 when he was recalled, five games later Keston has more than doubled that mark to 56.
  11. sveumrules
    Could be waiting until the draft. Maybe they give Hedbert the call once they're ready to move Mitchell & Gray up?
  12. sveumrules
    If you check out his StatCast or FanGraphs page he has pretty consistently produced good results vs fastballs & struggled vs breaking/off speed. For whatever reason (batted 9th mostly?) he still got a steady diet of fastballs with the Red Sox. About 59% fastballs for +55.6 batting runs vs about 41% breaking/off speed for -43.1 batting runs with change ups (-24.2 batting runs) the main culprit. This year he is getting way more breaking/off speed, about 51% vs 49% fastballs, with the fastball results bad (-4.6), but still better than breaking/off speed (-9.7).
  13. sveumrules
    I was hoping Boxberger would get it. Nothing demonstrates the absurdity of the Win quite like when a reliever blows the lead, but then gets picked up by the offense in the next half inning so they get credited with the W.
  14. sveumrules
    Yeah, gotta think getting up 15 early, being up 7 with 7:30 left in the fourth, shooting 40% from three & still losing by eleven on your home floor has to be pretty demoralizing. At least I hope it is, we'll see if it gives Atlanta a spark or puts the flames almost all the way out Tuesday night.
  15. sveumrules
    The Brewers went 11-3 vs ARI/COL this year so they account for 15% of those 51 games by themselves. Sure, we've been in the soft spot of the schedule, but they've been doing exactly what they need to do by stacking wins & hitting exponentially better with a 13% improvement in wRC+ & adding a whole run per game Brewers are currently 14-6 against teams above .500 vs 31-27 against everyone else so, they've actually played better against the good teams so far this year & this recent post-trade stretch of beating up on the mediocre/bad teams (22-8) has also been an improvement over the beginning of the season when the Brewers went 9-19 against mediocre/bad teams pre-Adames trade.
  16. sveumrules
    Another HR, 2B & 3 RBI yesterday had to feel good too. Hopefully he can keep it going. Sometimes it's good to feel good sometimes.
  17. sveumrules
    Runs per game now up to 4.09 (20th, Mets are last at 3.54) heading into the Cubs series & coming up on the half way point of the season. Brewers position players batting average of .222 is only second to last with the Mariners at .216. Their wRC+ of 93 is closer to average than the worst mark in baseball (Rockies @ 85). Of course, it's been a tale of two offenses this year. The one that posted 3.66 runs per game with a position player wRC+ of 87 over 44 games before the Adames trade & the one that has posted 4.65 runs per game with a position player wRC+ of 100 (& an MLB best 24-10 record) in the 34 games since. This isn't the optimism thread, those are just the numbers.
  18. sveumrules
    Sorry for your loss, clancy. Cool to see Hummel making a case to be the next Cooooooop, but looks like he's only played LF/DH thus far this year so might be tough to get a shot outside of a Yeli back flare up or maybe for a couple week stretch with AL road games 8/27-29 @ MIN, 9/10-12 @ CLE and 9/14-15 @ DET.
  19. sveumrules
    Looking at their team batting lines is pretty ridiculous... Posey currently at 165 wRC+, Longo at 146, Belt at 142, Crawford at 135, & thats just the old guys. How about Steven Duggar at 166, Darin Ruf at 141 & even some guy named LaMonte Wade Jr. cracking at 137. Yaz is low man on the torem pole at 124. Pretty nuts. Projections are buying them as a Wild Card (72.8% @ FanGraphs, 65% @ 538, 50.2 @ PECOTA), but not as much for the division (19% @ 538, 12.7% @ FanGraphs, 1.7% @ PECOTA).
  20. sveumrules
    The Brewers have scored 132 runs over the past month, the 7th best mark in baseball over that period and 3rd best in the National League behind only the Giants (141 runs) and Reds (134 runs). BTW, the Cardinals are dead last at 82 runs scored over that same timeframe. Things are looking up a bit! Yup. They've already been scoring 4.47 runs per game in the five weeks since trading for Adames & have won the most games in MLB since then. They don't need to start, they need to keep it up (& stay healthy). Take care of business against the Cubs & push that division lead to four or six games.
  21. sveumrules
    It's a little sad that baserunning is overlooked these days. I don't dispute the power disparity, but Molitor was widely regarded as one of, if not the best, base runners (as opposed to base stealers, although he was no slouch) of his time. At the time, a great leadoff hitter was a prized asset and, had it not been for Rickey Henderson, he might have been considered the best leadoff hitter in the game. By Braun's time, the focus had already shifted much more towards power. My point is that it's hard to compare players from different eras because of the way that the game has changed. BRef has Molly +57 on the bases with the Brewers compared to +24 for Braun, so the base running closes the gap somewhat, but Braun still comes out with a greater total offensive contribution.
  22. sveumrules
    Counsell said hoping it was just a cramp in the post game presser.
  23. sveumrules
    Was pretty young at the time, but also vaguely remember this whole situation & being confused about why Coop just kind of stopped playing out of nowhere. What I remember more clearly was my first trip to County Stadium in 1986. Was down with the scrum of other kids along the first base line trying to get autographs & Cecil was getting some warm up throws in. Yelled out, "Hey Coop!!" & much to my surprise he responded gruffly, "what you want kid?" I couldn't believe it, "Will you please sign my baseball?" I asked. "after i warm up" was the curt reply. Coop finished his throwing a couple minutes later & he walked straight into the dugout.
  24. sveumrules
    I'm only seeing -0.16 WPA for Richards so far... https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=23&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31 Trevor's gmLI of 1.01 means he isn't really seeing too many high leverage situations on the whole with Hader (1.94), Williams (1.61), Boxberger (1.55), JPF (1.48 when he was here) & Suter (1.36) all well ahead of him. Occasionally you might have to use your 5th/6th reliever in a high leverage spot, but over the long run they don't typically appear in enough high leverage situations to impact WPA much in one direction or the other.
  25. sveumrules
    This is essentially the question Win Probability Added attempts to answer. So far JPF has posted a +1.02 WPA while Adames is at +1.92. WPA also only accounts for batting contributions & stolen bases, so if Willy goes 1st to 3rd or scores from 2nd on a single that credit goes to the hitter, or if he makes a great play in the field it is credited to the pitcher. Definitely a win/win to this point that has carried over to the team level with the Brewers 22-10 since the trade (most wins in MLB over that stretch) while TB has been just behind at 19-12. Brewers runs per game pre trade: 3.66 Brewers runs per game post trade: 4.47 Rays bullpen ERA pre trade: 3.53 Rays bullpen ERA post trade: 2.28
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