Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

sveumrules

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,922

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    213

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    There are a couple issues with this methodology. One would be that raw OPS does not account for differences in league wide offense from year to year or for home stadium. The other would be the massive sample size discrepancies. Narvaez for instance had a 111 OPS+ over 1216 PAs before Milwaukee & has a 101 OPS+ over 220 PAs with the Brewers. So far he has been about 10% worse, but the sample is also less than 20% in size & still evolving with every plate appearance he takes. Avisail posted a 105 OPS+ in 3,027 PAs before Milwaukee compared to an 89 OPS+ in 356 PAs with the Brewers. Sure, he has been about 16% worse so far, but the sample is even smaller, only about 12%. JBJ is even more extreme in terms of both OPS+ & sample size divergence with a 94 OPS+ in 3281 PAs before Milwaukee compared to a 39 OPS+ in 141 PAs so far with the Brewers. His PAs with the Brewers are about 4% of his pre-Milwaukee total. What do you believe is more representative of each player's true talent level? Their results in over 7,000 plate appearances before arriving with the Brewers or their results in about 700 plate appearances with the Brewers? We've already seen both Narvaez & Garcia experience positive regression following 2020 & I feel pretty confident JBJ will end the season with an OPS+ over 39. Where's Wong & Gyorko? Their PAs with the Brewers (127 & 135) are comparable to Smoak (126), Sogard (128) & Holt (36 PAs).
  2. sveumrules
    They aren't budding superstars by any stretch of the imagination & they won't be seeing the court during the postseason, but Nwora & Merrill both displayed skillsets in their limited minutes this year that should compliment Giannis nicely down the road. As far as this season, now that its over, sure, the number one seed & homecourt would have been nice, but everybody is mostly healthy heading into the playoffs, so can't really ask for much more than that. Also think that revenge vs Miami, beating the big three in Brooklyn, toppling one seed Embiid & then taking down whosoever comes out of the West would be a pretty epic playoff gauntlet to run for Giannis's first Larry O'Brien Trophy & would only make his already incredible story that much more miraculous.
  3. sveumrules
    Their projected true talent level is lower than ours & their division is tougher, which is why their current projected win totals/playoff odds come in at 79 wins/13.7% (FanGraphs), 81 wins/15.2% (PECOTA) & 80 wins/24% (538). Meanwhile the Brewers projected win totals/playoff odds are currently at 85 wins/44% (538), 85 wins/52% (FanGraphs) & 88 wins/66.5% (PECOTA). A lot can happen twixt now & July, but as of right now the Nats' playoff prospects are quite a bit worse than ours, despite the extra 80 million in payroll.
  4. sveumrules
    Here's the 2019 pitching thread, which has a lot of discussion on the topic... viewtopic.php?f=63&t=38008&hilit=2019+pitching Without reading through all seventy five pages, I feel like I remember a number of posters thinking the move was too aggressive & it would torpedo our 2019 contention chances & possibly the future development of Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta, neither of which has come to fruition. I also feel like there was quite a bit of "Fire Hook" chatter early in the 2019 season, which also would have probably been a bad idea with the benefit of a couple years hindsight. The impact of losing Derek Johnson seems to have been greatly overstated by some.
  5. sveumrules
    Saw this little Braun nugget over at MLBTR... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/05/olympic-baseball-rumors-david-robertson-todd-frazier.html Notably, Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times reported this week that Team USA also reached out to Ryan Braun about a possible match. Braun, who has also received interest from Team Israel, tells Shaikin that suiting back up for any team “doesn’t make sense for me,” adding that he “couldn’t imagine being happier or enjoying life more” than he is right now while spending time with his family.
  6. sveumrules
    One that is exceedingly lucky.
  7. sveumrules
    In 263 career plate appearances versus the Brewers, Flaherty has allowed a 254/319/466 batting line versus a career line of 202/278/346.
  8. sveumrules
    The relevance of the combined total is to give an idea of how they have performed in aggregate during Stearns & company's tenure. Examining the year by year totals/placement I think also paints the picture of an offense that has been much closer to average than to pretty poor. 2016: MIL 4.14 R/G (11th) vs NL avg 4.44 R/G (Solidly below average, to be expected in year one of a rebuild) 2017: MIL 4.52 R/G (11th) vs NL avg 4.58 R/G (Essentially average, .06 R/G difference) 2018: MIL 4.63 R/G (7th) vs NL avg 4.37 R/G (Solidly above average) 2019: MIL 4.75 R/G (9th) vs NL avg 4.78 R/G (Essentially average, .03 R/G difference) 2020: MIL 4.12 R/G (13th) vs NL avg 4.71 R/G (Pretty poor, but also only 60 games during a pandemic) 2021: MIL 3.83 R/G (12th) vs NL avg 4.31 R/G( Pretty poor, but also only 35 games of 162 total) On a seasonal level there has been about 257 games (2016 & 2020-21 so far) of below average to bad offense & 487 games (2017-19) of average to above average offense.
  9. sveumrules
    I never like going full MLB rankings when you have a DH in one league and not in the other. Not that it changes too much but it is nice to have that perspective. True, but even when looking at NL only stats, still pretty poor. Not really. From 2016-21 the Brewers are 8th in the NL in runs scored, so essentially average in a 15 team league. Important to remember that 2021 is only 35 games so far & 2020 was only 60 games, compared to 649 games from 2016-19. Also important to remember that our hitters also have to field & have saved the 4th most runs in the NL since Stearns & company took over.
  10. sveumrules
    Brewers non-pitchers have a dead nuts even 100 wRC+ since Stearns & company took over, so I'd say they've been about average. When you consider we likely have spent considerably less than the 15th most on position players & we also have the 7th most defensive runs saved over that time frame, an argument could be made they have performed above average overall. No position players from the 2020 or 2019 drafts we could have drafted has made MLB yet. The only 1st rounder we could have picked in 2018 that has made MLB so far is Hoerner. The two 1st rounders from 2017 picked after Hiura that have made made MLB are Adell & Evan White, who have both been worse than Hiura. The only draft that can really be faulted for not producing MLB hitters at this still very early juncture is 2016 with Ray & Erceg, but we still got Burnes & Feliciano so its looking like a solid draft even with the two big early whiffs. Garrett Cooper has a 103 OPS+ for his career & a 52 OPS+ so far this year.
  11. sveumrules
    Jhoan Cruz got a mention in yesterday's FanGraphs Scouting Notebook... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-thursday-scouting-notebook-5-6-2021/ I saw the 20-year-old Cruz during the spring and he already has a plus changeup, one that got Tyler Soderstrom to swing and and miss twice in the same at-bat. He’s a Lilliputian 5-foot-9, a trait that runs through many Brewers minor league pitchers as, I’ll speculate, they’ve been on the lookout for low release heights. He was only 87-90 with the fastball when I saw him and Cruz’s slider in the 78-83 mph range looked below-average to me, but this is a loose, athletic 20-year-old with an out pitch.
  12. sveumrules
    TT currently has a 165 wRC+, publicly available projections have him between 69-85 wRC+ rest of season. so he is likely overachieving by somewhere in the neighborhood of 80-95% at the moment. JBJ currently has a 60 wRC+, publicly available projections have him between 80-86 wRC+ rest of season, so he is likely underachieving by around 20-25% at the moment. We aren't seeing the real Tyrone Taylor (though it would be really cool if we were) & we haven't really seen the real Jackie Bradley Jr. as of yet either. I would imagine projected rest of season value would be similar with equal playing time, though JBJ's projection would offer more certainty with a narrower band of potential outcomes, while TT's projections would come with much more upside & downside risk given he still hasn't cracked even 100 MLB PAs, so his projections are still drawing primarily from his underwhelming AA/AAA results.
  13. sveumrules
    Nice. Could be looking at Feliciano behind the plate too after Maile caught twelve frames tonight.
  14. sveumrules
    So stoked Alec got the call. Gotta figure Feliciano catches after Maile squatted for a couple two tree hours tonight.
  15. sveumrules
    Two things that give me hope that JP can continue to be a legitimate late inning option are the three pitch mix & so far he's induced infield fly balls (a skill that stabilizes relatively quickly) at a 14.8% clip compared to league average around 9.5-10% the last two years.
  16. sveumrules
    Watching Maile for the first time tonight I was really impressed with how quiet his set up & receiving were behind the plate so I thought I'd check out his framing numbers. Since 2015, there are 60 catchers with at least 1,500 innings behind the plate. Despite ranking only 54th in innings at 1,601, Luke comes in 24th in framing runs at +9.7 & 16th by DRS strike zone runs at +12. For reference Pina was at +5.9/+5 in 2,159 innings over that same time frame. The most similar catcher to Maile was Sandy Leon at +11.0/+14, but he needed 2,986 innings to accrue that value.
  17. sveumrules
    Most seasons the best team is still going to lose like fifty games & the worst team is still going to win about fifty, so any given team's season essentially comes down to what they do with those sixty two or so games in the middle. Here's how I've got the Brewers April... Wins (7-0): 6th 4-0 | 10th 9-5 | 11th 9-3 | 14th 7-0 | 17th 7-1 | 20th 6-0 | 25th 6-0 Losses (0-5): 4th 2-8 | 16th 1-6 | 23rd 2-15 | 26th 0-8 | 28th 2-6 Either/Or (9-5): 1st 6-5 (10) | 3rd 0-2 | 5th 3-5 | 8th 1-3 | 10th 4-2 (10) | 12th 6-3 | 13th 2-3 | 18th 5-6 (10) | 19th 3-1 | 21st 4-2 | 24th 4-3 | 27th 5-4 | 29th 2-1 | 30th 3-1
  18. sveumrules
    What if God was one of us? Just a two fisted slopper like some of us?
  19. sveumrules
    Or it could be a false positive like Arcia right before Opening Day.
  20. sveumrules
    Given how data driven the Brewers have been under Stearns & company, Alec coming in so high on the ZiPS list is a pretty good indication that they likely value him more highly than the consensus. I had him at #5 on my BF.net Top 25 ballot based on the excellent age appropriate results (9.7 K9 vs 2.2 BB9) at Biloxi in 2019 & the likelihood he'd see MLB in 2021. He ended up coming in at #20, but hopefully he can follow up Grisham (#18 pre-2019) & Williams (#16 pre-2020) as guys who greatly over performed their BF.net pre-season prospect status. Here's FanGraphs scouting report heading into 2020... A senior sign reliever coming out of Virginia, Bettinger experienced a velo bump in his second pro season and also developed better movement separation between his curveball and slider, which has enabled both of them to play better. He still only sits 89-92 but he gets way, way down the mound and generates about seven feet of extension, causing his heater the jump on hitters and create flatter approach angle. His fastball is also spin-efficient and has plus vertical movement. He’s gone from elder org-filler to back of the rotation prospect in half a season.
  21. sveumrules
    As of today FanGraphs has our outfield worth 1.0 WAR (14th in MLB), despite hitting well below their career norms to this point. Spotrac has us down for the 11th most expensive outfield in MLB this year. So far, we have been getting roughly commensurate value for our buck, even with a noticeable lack of bang. As Yelich & Cain hopefully return, & guys like JBJ & Avi likely hit closer to their career norms as the season goes on that value should only increase.
  22. sveumrules
    Coming into the season ZiPS projected JBJ for a 94 OPS+ & Avisail for a 98, I'm guessing that is in the neighborhood of what Stearns & company were hoping for as well. Sure, they haven't hit up to those levels so far. At the same time there are over a hundred Aprils that have shown us guys who drastically over or under achieve are more likely to revert to their career norms than to continue at outlier levels. This is doubly good because the poor hitting (though still average over all contribution from our OF by WAR) both hasn't hindered us from winning & will likely improve signifigantly as the season progresses through the remaining 85%.
  23. sveumrules
    JBJ (86 PAs, 58 wRC+), Avisail (85 PAs, 68 wRC+), Keston (79 PAs, 57 wRC+) & Robertson (43 PAs, -2 wRC+) have taken 35.6% of the team's 823 position player plate appearances so far (almost like playing with only two outs every inning) yet the Brewers are still 14-9 & solid favorites to win the NLC by all of PECOTA (70%), FanGraphs (58.2%) & 538 (47%).
  24. sveumrules
    Godley is one of 122 pitchers with at least 500 IP since 2015. Of those 122 pitchers he ranks 121st in terms of his ERA (4.86) underperforming his FIP (4.28), with only Jon Gray having a larger negative margin (& Coors likely has a lot to do with that). What's interesting to me about that is Brewers pitchers have tended to be on the opposite end of the spectrum since Stearns and company have arrived, registering a 4.05 ERA vs a 4.21 FIP, the 3rd largest positive differential behind only the Cubs (3.76 ERA / 4.11 FIP) & Dodgers (3.42 ERA / 3.65 FIP). By FIP, Godley has been essentially a league average pitcher over his career. If the Brewers can figure out the right tweaks to get his ERA more in line with his peripherals he could be another solid value pick up. If they can somehow coax a 2017 level performance out of him (74 ERA- / 78 FIP-) they'll really be onto something. Wade Miley 2: Electric Boogaloo. Of course the most likely outcome is he is just another arm on the carousel. Guess we'll get our first glimpse tomorrow afternoon.
  25. sveumrules
    Because that's literally how the team was designed to operate this year. Big money to Bradley and Wong, along with getting rid of Knebel and Arcia says otherwise.... Bradley (-28 BAT, +15 BSR, +58 FLD) & Wong (-16 BAT, +24 BSR, +51 FLD) have both derived the majority of their value from defense & base running throughout their careers. They weren't signed for their bats.
×
×
  • Create New...