sveumrules

I'm assuming you want Garcia in right (9)? Whoops, yeah. Save the five infielders alignment for when Anderson is pitching.

Lineup guess... JBJ 8 Omar 2 Avisail 3 Shaw 5 Hiura 4 McKinney 3 Tyrone 7 DRob 6 Corbin 1

Their methodology is definitely a little weird. Using wRC+ for offense is fine to measure hitting, but it completely leaves out base running where the Brewers currently rank 9th. FIP- is one of the better pitching metrics to measure true talent, but by doing so defense is completely excluded, with the Brewers currently ranking 1st in DRS.

I'd say that feels a little high intuitively, though 538 has our playoff odds at 50% (7th in MLB) while PECOTA has them at 68.3% (also 7th in MLB), so maybe it's not as high as it seems. FanGraphs has our playoff odds at 48.7% currently which is 11th in MLB by their calculations, & also has us 11th overall so far by BaseRuns, so I'd probably put us somewhere in that seven to eleven-ish range, myself.

Except it was never an off-chance, it was always a near certainty. Only three players in the last 17 years (Trout, Pujols & Bonds) have been able to maintain the kind of production Yelich had from 2018-19 over a longer time frame. Luckily, Yelich's contract doesn't pay him to perform at an MVP level for 162 games over the next eight years. It's paying him for about four to five All Star caliber seasons then a couple two tree decline seasons at the end. For years there was talk about how Braun's second contract would cripple the franchise & he only put up 8 WAR from 2016-2020, over half of which came during 2016. Yet despite Braun taking up a quarter of the payroll & his production/health falling off a cliff from his MVP prime the Brewers still managed to win the 11th most games in MLB from 2016-20 despite spending only the 26th most on payroll, with Braun representing about a quarter of that payroll. Could the Brewers have been more competitive with Braun's 105 million spent elsewhere over the last five years? Sure, it's possible, but it certainly didn't prevent the Brewers from being competitive.

No doubt, Trout is an inner circle all time great. We're almost literally witnessing a right handed Mickey Mantle with two good legs... Mick 51-59 | 5410 PAs | 311/425/569 (173 OPS+) | 98/25 CS | 67.9 WAR Mike 11-20 | 5514 PAs | 304/418/582 (175 OPS+) | 201/37 SB/CS | 74.1 WAR That Yelich was even able to perform at that level for two seasons (170 wRC+, 15.4 WAR from 2018-19) is pretty impressive & puts him in some elite recent company. From 2002 (first season with UZR for defense & base running value encompassing more than just SB/CS) through 2019 (last full season), there were 17 different two year stretches with a total of 2,229 individual qualifying batter stretches. Of those 2,229 qualifying two year stretches only 15 (less than 1%) cleared both both a 170 wRC+ & 15 WAR. Six by Trout, four by Pujols, two by Bonds & one each by Yelich, Cabrera & A-Rod. When Christian signed his extension, ZiPS projected him for 622 PAs | 148 OPS+ | 5.7 WAR in 2021 & about 30 WAR total from 2021-2028, which would be less than seven million per WAR. A pretty good deal. Following 2020, that 2021 ZiPS dropped to 618 PAs | 135 OPS+ | 4.3 WAR. That extrapolates out to about 20 WAR from 2021-28, which would be closer to ten million per WAR. Not as good of a deal, but hardly a franchise crippling disaster. The missed time early in 2018 didn't negatively impact him the rest of his season, he only missed two short stretches in 2019 before fouling a ball off his knee & he only missed two games in a shortened 2020 season. I guess I'm not concerned because I never expected Yelich to play more than 145 games anyway & I still believe he will perform in the neighborhood of his projections over the course of the season.

In 2018 Yelich missed 12 games from April 5th to 18th with an oblique injury. Then missed three games the rest of the year. In 2019 Yelich missed 6 games from April 29th until May 3rd & 4 games from August 6th to 10th before missing the last 18 games after fouling a ball off his kneecap. In 2020 Yelich played 58 of 60 games. Add it all up & Yelich ranks 30th in games played from 2018 through today. If we're in trouble with Yelich playing "only" 500 games since 2018 & 8/205 left on his contract then the Angels must really be sweating because Trout's only played 454 games since 2018 & he has 10/350 left on his contract.

I would bet against anything getting done this year primarily on account of the whole CBA situation & to a lesser extent just because neither has ever made it through a full MLB season as a starter. Seems like more risk than Stearns & company are typically comfortable with. Soonest I would expect anything to get done would be in what will likely be a small window between whenever the CBA gets figured out & the 2022 season begins.

Both are scheduled to hit free agency following the 2024 season. Woodruff will be entering his age 32 season, while Burnes will be entering his age 30 season. That age difference leads me to believe Brandon might be a lil more willing to sign an extension before FA. There's also the looming CBA situation after this season. My best guess is that Stearns & company would prefer to wait until that is all settled & if Brandon/Corbin are still healthy/dealing following the 2022 season they would try to get extensions done then, with two years af Arby's remaining for each guy at that point. I don't think either would bite at 5/50 now, but get that guaranteed money closer to 100 million over 6-7 years & it gets a lot harder to say no.

If the season ended today the Division winners in the AL would be BOS, KC & SEA with CLE & LA in the Wild Card game.

They may be due for heavy regression on those RISP numbers, but they could also improve drastically on their 27th overall wRC+? So they could certainly maintain or even improve on the 4.42 RPG. Exactly. For whatever it is or isn't worth Fangraphs & Pecota project the Brewers to score around 4.6 to 4.8 runs per game for the season, so I'd take the over on 4.42 after another 150 games.

Overall the Brewers position players are currently sporting an 84 wRC+, which is 27th in MLB. With runners in scoring position their wRC+ has been 143, 3rd in MLB. We're still only dealing with a sample representing about 7% of the season, so both those numbers are likely due for heavy regression yet. BaseRuns, which removes sequencing to arrive at a projected run scored/allowed totals, thinks the Brewers should have scored about 3.76 runs per game so far instead of their actual 4.42 mark.

My totally amateur opinion is Keston needs to ditch the leg kick. His timing has to be completely out of whack to miss so many mistake pitches in the zone. Saw an MLB Network breakdown on Ohtani & when he first came over he had the big leg kick, but was either missing or late on middle middle pitches he should have been crushing. So he made an adjustment where he just does a little toe turn for his timing mechanism & has been raking ever since.

About five years ago Braun and Lucroy were switched and they batted out of order. Good memory. I found it now that you mentioned it. https://www.masnsports.com/nationals-pastime/2016/07/brewers-caught-batting-out-of-order.html Not a great look for Counsell to make two lineup card mistakes in 5 years. They won both games. Maybe if CC makes another lineup card mistake again in 2026 (if he even lasts that long) it will finally cost them.

Maybe teams were scared about the 2021 season happening at the time of his departure. However, when the dust cleared on free agency Jake McGee got 4.8 million dollars. Alex Colome got 6.75 from the Twins, and Joakim Soria got 4.5. Certainly Knebel’s 5 million dollar salary is not out of line with comparable players and he’s certainly not overpriced. If the Brewers are dropping quality players in the 2020s because they’re concerned about how the player is going to come back from TJ surgery, I I think that’s ripe for criticism; and certainly cuts against their narrative of being a forward thinking club trying to find under appreciated value to compete against the well moneyed clubs. Except it's not a narrative. Entering 2021, the Brewers have won the 11th most games in MLB under Stearns & company while spending the 26th most on payroll. Of the 25 teams that have spent more than them, only 8 have won more games. You think 5 million for a player coming off TJ was an under appreciated value, the Brewers front office thought that money could be better spent elsewhere as the bullpen was a relative strength. One hundred fifty games from now there is a chance you both were right.

It continues to be unimaginable that Ozuna (and to a bit lesser extent, Yelich) have Gold Gloves to their name. I think it proves that no one actually watched those late 'teens Marlins teams actually play baseball. When Yelich won in 2014 he posted +12 DRS/+7.5 UZR, next best NL LF was Starling Marte at +5 DRS/+2.0 UZR. Looks like the voters got that one right. When Ozuna won in 2017 he posted +7 DRS/+3.1 UZR, which essentially placed him 3rd among NL LF behind Adam Duvall (+11 DRS/+4.9 UZR) & Tommy Pham (+10 DRS/+6.8 UZR). Looks like his was a case of "it was kind of close, so give it to the guy who .312 with 37 HR & 124 RBI".

Sure, they got it wrong with Jimmy in 2018-19. They still made the playoffs both years & won the 3rd most games in the NL those two seasons. It wasn't a very costly mistake. Maybe the Brewers made amother mistake with Knebel, but will it ultimately matter? Stay tuned, I guess.

A "7th inning guy who struggled the previous year?" That's really an accurate depiction of Knebel to you? Is that really how anyone would describe Corey Knebel? Knebel would have lined up as our 7th inning guy & he pitched to a 5.78 xFIP over 13 innings in 2020. It's an accurate description. Of course the upside is there to return to circa 2017-18 form, but the Dodgers were just better positioned financially to accept the downside risk as the Brewers were working with about 150 million less in payroll & needed that five million elsewhere. I hope Corey has a great 2021 & is able to cash in as a free agent. I hope the players the Brewers spent that money on instead help lead them to the postseason & maybe even beyond. I hope Leo Crawford gets some outs for the Brewers at some point. Some of these hopes might be fulfilled & some may not...such is life. I try not to let it get to me.

Did someone say "pour it on"?

First 19 games of 2020 team wRC+ was 75 (28th), last 41 games it was 96 (18th). While they never quite reached average over sixty games in 2020, they certainly were coming out of it (some might say regressing towards the mean) as the season went along & who knows what would have happened over another 100 games.

Projections typically use three full seasons of performance & they still produce a fairly wide range of outcomes. I don't see how using six or even sixty games would somehow produce more accurate results. Before he got hired by the Rays, Jeff Sullivan wrote an article at FanGraphs examining which of actual 1st half results, pythag 1st half results or projected 2nd half results did the best job of predicting actual 2nd half results. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-best-to-predict-the-seasons-second-half/ Even after 80 games (13x more than we've played) the projected 2nd half results still did a better job of predicting the actual 2nd half results than either of 1st half actual or pythag results. When I posted this link last year after 19 games the team wRC+ was 75, by the end of the season 41 games later it was up to 89. After another 100 games who knows where it would have ended up.

2018: 96 Wins | 105 wRC+ 2019: 89 Wins | 103 wRC+ The team, might have taken a small step back in 2019, but the extent of the cratering is only 64 games to this point.

Actual contract is 4/135, the 160 is only if all incentives are reached. The salaries go from 30 million next year to 37 million in the player option fourth year. According to Spotrac, Jrue will be about the 15th highest paid guard next season.

Giannis (18/21), Jrue (9/14) & Khris (8/13) combine to shoot 35 for 48 from the field while tbe other seven guys shot 14 for 42.

Story to the Reds was the most obvious move of the offseason that didn't happen, but lolRockies is pretty much the new lolMets at this point, so not really I guess. Either way, I don't see Stearns & company dealing any prospect they view as a long term future contributor for any rental player. The highest guys on the current BF.net Top 25 I could see them offering for deadline Trevor are maybe someone like Lutz or Rodriguez. The free agent SS class should also be an interesting Story-line to follow this year. Career stats entering 2021 listed with Lindor included for reference even though he signed already, age in parentheses is for 2022 season... Lindor (28) | 3510 PA | 117 OPS+ | +7 BSR | +38 FLD | 27.9 WAR Correa (27) | 2583 PA | 126 OPS+ | +2 BSR | +47 FLD | 26.9 WAR Story (29) | 2541 PA | 114 OPS+ | +10 BSR | +60 FLD | 22.7 WAR Baez (29) | 2708 PA | 102 OPS+ | +13 BSR | +63 FLD | 19.1 WAR Seager (28) | 2301 PA | 129 OPS+ | +6 BSR | -4 FLD | 17.7 WAR